MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Tuesday July 10
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Monday’s MLB DFS slate was one where all day the narrative was how awful of a pitching slate it was and you simply could not feel good about any pitching options you were forced to roster and yet when the dust settled, the top 5 scorers on the night were pitchers as Gerrit Cole, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Berrios, Danny Duffy and Clayton Kershaw all had strong nights on the mound. Also, a big shout out to one of our Picks and Pivots readers who finished third in the $25 FantasyDraft All-Star GPP, narrowly missing out on the trip to DC for the All-Star game but took home a really nice pay-day – congrats brother!
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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Starting Pitching Overview:
We have a loaded Tuesday MLB DFS slate with some top-tier arms including Justin Verlander and Trevor Bauer as well as a host of arms coming off the D.L. in Masahiro Tanaka, Rich Hill, Joe Musgrove and Ian Kennedy so there are some intriguing names to consider on this slate and in my opinion, a really strong mid-tier to choose from tonight.
Garret Richards ($16K) jumped out to me immediately on this slate as we can target an arm with a 27.7% K rate and 11.5% swinging strike rate at this price point against a team he has performed well against multiple times already this season. Richards returned from the D.L. in his last start, throwing 80 pitches over 5.1 innings, striking out 8 Mariners on his way to a 25 fantasy point outing. In fact this was the second time this year that Richards has faced the Mariners and struck out 8 batters where back in May, he went 6.1 innings, shutting out Seattle on his way to 32 fantasy points.
Over those two outings, Richards has put up a 40% and 35% K rate, with a 12% and 16% swinging strike rate which are certainly some of his best marks this season but they are not total outliers either, as Richards has racked up 7 or more K’s in 6 of his 14 starts (not including an injury shortened 2 inning game), so the upside is certainly there for the Angels right-hander here and at this price point, I think there is massive room for profit.
Julio Teheran ($14.8K) is not normally someone I look to pitch at home but this match-up against Toronto is one that catches my eye. Not only will the Blue Jays lose the DH in the National League park, but this is a line-up that will likely only have 2-3 LHB with Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak and Yangervis Solarte, so Teheran can attack a right-handed heavy team which would seem to work towards his splits.
Teheran this season has a 27% K rate against RHB and that mark jumps to over 29% at home versus righties while his walk rate goes from 17% against LHB all the way down to 6%. Now this does not come without risk, as Teheran has still given up 1.59 HR/9 against RHB at home but when you consider that Teheran throws his slider nearly 20% of the time, a pitch the Jays notoriously struggle against, there is some sneaky upside to be had here.
Teheran is coming off an interesting stretch where he has put up 10 and 11 K performances against the Yankees and Padres, shutout the Cardinals for 6 innings and in between got blasted by a right-handed heavy Orioles team at home so the boom or bust nature is absolutely evident here with the Braves right-hander. Teheran has a double-digit swinging strike rate in three of his last four starts and is seemingly relying on his slider more in recent turns, throwing the pitch 24% of the time which is a 5% bump over his season long numbers.
Assuming we get a right-handed heavy line-up for Toronto, this could be a great spot for a pitcher with a 27% K rate, 0.89 WHIP and 3.69 xFIP versus RHB this season.
I could see someone like Aaron Slegers (14.9K) gaining ground as a popular SP2 at a similar price point as a significant home favorite (-180) against a K happy Royals team and although I used Slegers in his last start, keep in mind this is a low K arm (which he proved with his 2 K outing against Baltimore) so while the Vegas odds may indicate a safer play, you are foregoing significant K upside with Teheran for $100 cheaper here tonight.
The one arm I want to keep an eye on buzz-wise today is Phillies rooke Enyel De Los Santos, who is priced way up at $14.4K when you consider he is making his ML debut and is not a top 100 ML prospect. However De Los Santos is a top arm in hte Phillies system with a solid minor league K pedigree (22.7% K rate) and has some strong downward action on his fastball that makes him a ground ball pitcher (45% rate at AAA). The simple fact he is starting against the Mets is argument enough for using him and with Todd Frazier on the DL with Jay Bruce and Yoenis Cespedes, this line-up continues to be one we can attack with opposing arms. I wonder if the rookie becomes a buzz worthy pick today – it is interesting that he started as a -139 favorite on the road and the line moved quickly back to a Pick’Em – which could limit the in day buzz, but he certainly makes my short list of value arms today.
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots:
At first glance on this slate you will see we have a Coors Field game with an 11 game total and I doubt anything will seem unique about that metric considering the hitting environment. As the clear top dog from a Vegas perspective normally a Coors game would dominate the hitting discussion but I really wonder if we see that same buzz today and I belive this could be a spot where Coors actually goes under-owned.
The biggest reason is that we have two good pitchers going with Patrick Corbin and Tyler Anderson and my initial reaction was to simply find other spots, but I wonder if that will be the same thought process others have. If we go back to last week, July 2nd to be exact, we had the Rockies in Coors against another elite arm in Madison Bumgarner and so I went back to look at how the ownership levels played out for the Rockies in that game and here were some of them from the $25 GPP on FantasyDraft:
- Nolan Arenado (25%), Trevory Story (10%), Ian Desmond (10%) and DJ LeMahieu (5%)
Arenado will always get ownership against a lefty in Coors and for good reason, but the other 3 bats ownership last week on a smaller slate (only 9 games), makes me think this is another spot where we could get the Rockies at lower ownership than we would normally.
Listen, Corbin is a good pitcher but he has given up a ton of hard contact this year, 43.5% to RHB and 47.5% to LHB and he did get lit up (8 ER) in one of his two starts last season in Coors so I do not think this is a spot we have to avoid the Rockies bats, especially if they are going to be a bit over-looked on this slate. Now I coud be wrong – but if your first reaction when you saw Coors Field was to look at Patrick Corbin and go, hmm maybe I can attack other spots – take a second look because I have a feeling that Coors avoidance may be a popular take today, much like it was a week ago.
Tomorrow's starters -- Enyel De Los Santos (PHI) and Drew Gagnon (NYM) -- will both make their major league debut.
— Tim Healey (@timbhealey) July 9, 2018
It'll be the first time two pitchers are making their first major league start in the same game since ... a couple of weeks ago, Oswalt (NYM) and Alcantara (MIA).
The Mets are calling up minor league journeyman Drew Gagnon, who has never made it to the Majors and at 28 years old is sporting a 5+ ERA in his last two seasons at AAA between the Angels and Mets systems. Gagnon has struggled with the home run ball at AAA this year with a 1.59 HR/9 mark and although he does have a solid 25% K rate, I think a Phillies stack here with warm temperatures in Citi Field could pay big time dividends tonight. Rhys Hoskins and Nick Williams both have .235 ISO or higher marks against RHP this season while Odubel Herrera is not far behind with a .190 ISO and .340 wOBA, making this a high upside three-man stack in the heart of the Phillies order tonight.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
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SP: Garret Richards ($16K)
SP: Julio Teheran ($14.8K)
IF: Nolan Arenado ($10.4K)
IF: Trevor Story ($9.4K)
IF: DJ LeMahieu ($9K)
OF: Ian Desmond ($8.2K)
OF: Odubel Herrera ($8.5K)
OF: Nick Williams ($7.3K)
UTIL: Rhys Hoskins ($9.9K)
UTIL: Jonathan Schoop ($6.5K)
Slate Overview: I am really interested to see how the buzz ends up today as I could see the Yankees against Andrew Cashner or the Red Sox against Yovani Gallardo becoming the chalky stacks while the Rockies get a bit over-looked against Patrick Corbin. As always with Picks and Pivots, this is meant to be a gut reaction, first look, so I could certainly be wrong but if we get lower ownership on the Rockies stack than we normally would, much like last week’s start against MadBum, I think you make it a point to build your line-ups and use a solid mid-tier of high K upside arms like Richards and Teheran to make it work! Good luck today all!
Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns
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