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MLB DFS Picks – Standouts: July 10th

By Matt McGarvey

ST. LOUIS, MO - MAY 22: Salvador Perez #13 of the Kansas City Royals celebrates after hitting a home run against the St. Louis Cardinals in the sixth inning at Busch Stadium on May 22, 2018 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
ST. LOUIS, MO - MAY 22: Salvador Perez #13 of the Kansas City Royals celebrates after hitting a home run against the St. Louis Cardinals in the sixth inning at Busch Stadium on May 22, 2018 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /
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ST. LOUIS, MO – MAY 22: Salvador Perez #13 of the Kansas City Royals celebrates after hitting a home run against the St. Louis Cardinals in the sixth inning at Busch Stadium on May 22, 2018 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) MLB DFS Picks
ST. LOUIS, MO – MAY 22: Salvador Perez #13 of the Kansas City Royals celebrates after hitting a home run against the St. Louis Cardinals in the sixth inning at Busch Stadium on May 22, 2018 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) MLB DFS Picks /

MLB DFS Picks – Standouts: July 10th

Tonight’s MLB DFS Picks slate features 15 games with, Boston (6.1), New York (5.8), Colorado (5.6), Arizona (5.5), and Minnesota (5.4), holding the best projected team totals. With expensive pitchers like, Trevor Bauer and Justin Verlander, available, finding value will be crucial for success tonight. We’ll be aiming to highlight MLB DFS picks from the perspective of batted ball data, batter splits, line movement, and stolen base upside.

MLB DFS Picks: Batted Ball Stats

Salvador Perez – DK $3500, FD $2700

To say that Salvador Perez has struggled of late, would be an enormous understatement. Perez hasn’t exceed his salary implied fantasy expectation since mid June. This is evident in his price drop. Back in June his DraftKings salary reached as high as $4000, and he’s now priced down at only $3500. While his production has been lack luster, his recent batted ball stats would indicate that he is due for positive regression. In the last 15 days, his batted ball distance is up 27 feet, his exit velocity is up 2 MPH, and his hard hit percentage is down only 3%, over his yearly average. These numbers are a sign that we may be getting a power hitter in Perez, at a discount price, given his recent performance.

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Batter Splits

Brandon Nimmo – DK $4000, FD $3200

Brandon Nimmo will draw an advantageous matchup against the righty, Enyel De Los Santos. Nimmo is much better against right-handed pitching, with a .394 wOBA split (.083 better than when facing a lefty) and a .249 ISO split (.096 better than when facing a lefty). Enyel De Los Santos will be making his major league debut tonight for the Phillies, and left-handed hitters like Nimmo, should benefit.

Paul Goldschmidt – DK $5900, FD $4800

If you have the salary to spend up tonight, and favor hitters in positive splits, consider Paul Goldschmidt. Goldschmidt is a much more viable option on FanDuel, where he only costs $4800. Goldschmidt will draw an attractive matchup as he faces the lefty, Tyler Anderson. Goldschmidt is much better against left-handed pitching, with a .484 wOBA split (.125 better than when facing a righty) and a .395 ISO split (.181 better than when facing a righty).

Line Movement

NYM Batters

The Mets will face the visiting Philadelphia Phillies tonight, in a game in which Philadelphia opened as -140 favorites. Since opening, the line has dropped, leaving them as a slight favorite at -110. In addition to the movement on the side, the total has also moved. The game total opened at 8.5 runs, but has since moved up a half of a run to where it currently sits, at 9 runs. As mentioned, the Mets will get a crack at Enyel De Los Santos, as he makes his MLB debut. It would appear that some sharp money doesn’t think things will go as planned for him tonight. It also important to note that hitters may get an added boost with the weather at Citi Field tonight. It should be a warm night, with the wind blowing out to center at around 11 MPH.

Stolen Base Upside

Billy Hamilton – DK $3400, FD $3000

It’s not the most enticing play, as Cincinnati has one of the lowest projected team totals on the slate (3.4 runs), but if Billy Hamilton can get on base, he will have some added stolen base upside. Hamilton will face Trevor Bauer, who has allowed nine stolen bases this year (13th most), over the course of 121.1 innings pitched. If anyone can take advantage of this, it would be Billy Hamilton, as he’s recorded 22 stolen bases this year, tied for fourth most in the league, and one less than the leader.

Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns

Best of luck with your MLB DFS Picks and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!