DraftKings Main MLB Picks July 11: Is Sale worth the markup?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Main MLB Picks July 11: Is Sale worth the markup?
We have 11 games in the main DraftKings tournament. The Giants-Cubs game is exiled to showdown and all day tournaments only. We have four pitchers priced over $10,000. Which ones are worth the price? Let’s take a look at what tonight has to offer!
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There doesn’t seem to be any rain risk tonight, but there is a 12 mph wind in from right in Colorado. That could affect come of the Coors power.
We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!
For you first time players, if you would like $20 in free DraftKings dollars, use this link for the referral bonus with your first deposit of $5 or more! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn those DraftKings dollars into more!
Next: DraftKings Pitcher Plays
Top Tier:
Chris Sale ($13,000): The Rangers are hitting just .148 in 115 at bats against Sale with two homers, only five runs, and 47 strikeouts. Everything about Sale screams elite tonight. This is a hard fade for me since I don’t know if we can get close enough with the other five digit pitcher to recoup the points we will lose by fading Sale.
Jacob deGrom ($12,000): The Phillies are only hitting .215 against deGrom in 79 at bats with no homers, just two runs, and 23 strikeouts. His numbers aren’t quite as dominant as Sale’s, and the Phillies are a better offense than the Rangers, but deGrom could be a suitable fade to Sale. He should at least come close to Sale’s output, and you could come out ahead if you use that extra $1,000 wisely.
Lance McCullers ($11,000): The A’s are hitting .247 against McCullers in 81 at bats, but they have just one homer and four runs to go with 17 strikeouts. Cole and Verlander dominated the A’s in the first two games of this series. There is no reason to think that McCullers can’t follow suit, especially when you consider that Verlander’s and Cole’s past stats against the A’s weren’t that great.
Middle Tier:
Freddy Peralta ($10,300): You want to say that Peralta is not worth the money since he has only made six starts in the majors? Fair enough, but realize that Peralta has blown past 30 DraftKings points in three of those six starts, and topped 20 in another one. The Marlins offense is still several notches below elite. Peralta racks up the strikeouts and knows how to get outs. The price is a touch high for me, but there is plenty of potential for me to buy into this.
Vince Velasquez ($8,100): There is plenty not to like here. Velasquez is making his first start after taking a liner off his forearm on June 30th. On top of that, The Mets owned Velasquez last year, hitting .355 with three homers and nine runs in just 31 at bats (two starts). Now the good news: it’s the Mets. You know, the team that has scored just eight runs in the last five games combined. Velasquez also has a 2.79 ERA in seven road starts this year. There is potential here.
Bargain Pitchers:
Tyler Mahle ($6,800): Yes, I realize that Mahle is playing Cleveland. He also has more than 20 DraftKings points in three of his last four starts. There is a lot of risk here with the Cleveland offense, so I would only use Mahle in GPP formats. His numbers are strong all across the board, and he gets enough strikeouts that his game shouldn’t totally be ruined if Cleveland scores a handful of runs off of him.
Carlos Rodon ($6,000): Rodon impressed me last week with a solid outing against the Astros, a team that clobbers lefties. St Louis has struggled against lefties lately, so there is plenty of potential here. Rodon also has a 2.77 ERA at home so far in 2018. For $6,000, he is a very suitable pair to Sale or deGrom.
Atlanta Braves vs. Sam Gaviglio:
Gaviglio has strung together some good starts, but his home/road splits are ridiculous. Gaviglio has a 6.75 ERA in four road starts. The Braves have the power to light him up. Tops on my list are Freeman and Albies, but Ronald Acuna, Nick Markakis, and Johan Camargo are all worth a look as well.
Houston Astros vs. Chris Bassitt:
The Astros have been mostly quiet against the A’s in this series, so I am nervous about this one a little bit. That said, Bassitt is due for some regression here. His two runs allowed in 4.2 innings against the Padres in his last outing could signal the start of it. I like the power potential of Josh Reddick and Springer here. Altuve is a must play on any given day. Alex Bregman and Gurriel are worth a look as well.
Colorado Rockies vs. Shelby Miller:
Okay, so the Rockies were a bust last night. This will make up for it. The Rockies are hitting .298 with five homers and 26 runs in 131 at bats. On top of that, Miller has struggled in his return from Tommy John Surgery, which is expected. That’s going to continue, so load up on Blackmon, Arenado, CarGo, Trevor Story, and LeMahieu in this one. Any Rockies player wielding a bat at home plate is in play here.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. German Marquez:
You can use Marquez in most road starts, but don’t use him in any stadium in the Mountain Time Zone. The Diamondbacks are hitting .355 with seven homers and 19 runs in 110 at bats against Marquez. Goldy has three homers and six RBI in just 15 at bats, so he is a lock in any lineup tonight. Chris Owings, David Peralta, Ketel Marte, and Jake Lamb have the other homers, but I cant fault you for using Pollock either.
San Diego Padres vs. Kenta Maeda:
Want an interesting stack? Look no further than the Padres. Think I’m crazy? The line forms to the left. However, the Padres are hitting .296 with four homers and 22 runs in just 98 at bats against Maeda. Renfroe, Freddy Galvis, Hosmer, and Manuel Margot have the homers and 12 of the 22 RBI. The kicker? All of them are $3,500 or less. Wil Myers and Carlos Asuaje are worth a look as well.
Top Tier:
I respect Bartolo Colon enough to not stack against him, but I definitely want some exposure. The Red Sox have slugged seven homers off of him in just 62 at bats. Devers, Mitch Moreland, and J.D. Martinez have to each, and Betts has the other. That’s who we would use anyway.
There is no way that I’m using Dylan Bundy against the Yankees. Judge, Gregorius, and Aaron Hicks have the Yankee homers off of Bundy so far, but Stanton is heating up and is worth a look as well.
Dan Straily has had issues with the long ball, especially at home. He has allowed eight homers in six home starts. The Brewers have slugged four off of him in 43 at bats. Eric Thames, Keon Broxton, and Villar have the homers. Christian Yelich has the other, and with the series he has had, if you don’t play Yelich, you must hate money.
I do believe that Cleveland will be a popular stack tonight, but I’m not sure they should be. Outside of Lindor and Ramirez, I don’t have much interest in this side of the game.
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Middle Tier:
Gray was beaten up on the road last week, but I just don’t know if the Orioles have it in them. They were decent last night against Tanaka, but Gray is nearly unhittable when he is on. At any rate, I need the Orioles homer since I didn’t play Machado last night. Tim Beckham has two off of Gray already. Valencia, Adam Jones, and Machado have taken him deep as well.
Joey Lucchesi has pitched pretty well so far, but the Dodgers got to him the first time around. They will likely do so again. Chris Taylor and Kike Hernandez both homered off of Lucchesi in that game, and are my favorite picks for tonight.
I don’t trust Carlos Carrasco against this Reds offense. First off, Carrasco’s ERA is nearly 5.5 at home. On top of that, the Reds are hitting .302 in 43 at bats against Carrasco. Votto is just $4,400, so I like him to build around. Suarez has the other homer, and Billy Hamilton is worth using until he cools off. The power of Duvall and Gennett is intoxicating if you want to turn this into a stack.
For my money, the Blue Jays don’t strike out enough to use Folynewicz at $10k. He would seem to be the logical choice to take the place of Max Fried, but nothing is official yet. Justin Smoak has the only Toronto homer off of Folty, but the Jays are hitting .375 in 32 at bats. Grichuk and Aledmys Diaz hit him well as Cardinals.
The White Sox are just good enough to give me pause to use Luke Weaver against them. Weaver’s nasty 5.44 ERA over his last ten starts has me wanting to roll out a couple of White Sox here. Jose Abreu, Matt Davidson, and Palka are my favorites for power potential. Using Moncada and Tim Anderson to turn this into a stack is understandable as well.
Mitch Haniger has homered twice off of Jaime Barria already. He has only played one game against him. Ben Gamel is a great punt if he plays. Denard Span is a decent pick as well.
Bargain Shoppers:
Don’t believe in Vince Velasquez? You wont be alone. Wilmer Flores has a three run homer off of him. Conforto has two homers and three RBI in seven at bats. Asdrubal Cabrera is 5-11 with two RBI against Velasquez.
Marco Gonzales has been good against the Angels , but both of those starts came in Seattle. Gonzales has been markedly worse on the road. The Angels are still hitting .321 against Gonzales with three homers in 78 at bats. Jefry Marte has two of them. If he starts, put him in there. Trout has the other one, and as usual, is worth paying up for.
It’s hard to get really excited about any Cardinals right now, but passing on Marcell Ozuna at just $3,300 with a lefty on the mound seems silly. Paul DeJong is worth a look as well.
If I chance anything against Sale, it’s going to be with Ryan Rua. Rua is 2-9 with a homer against Sale. Adrian Beltre is cheap, and has also homered off of Sale.
Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns
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