Players I Want in Every Fantasy Football Draft: The Round Four Rookie

Players I Want in Every Fantasy Football Draft: Round Four 

Running backs are dominating fantasy football drafts this season. Rookie running backs dominated the NFL last season. Grabbing a rookie running back isn’t just advisable this year, it’s borderline necessary. The league is getting younger when it comes to rushing production, and teams are taking notice and adjusting accordingly. Last season we had three rookie ball carriers finish in the top ten overall, with Dalvin Cook likely being the fourth if he had stayed healthy.

This years rookie class is strong, with guys like Darrius Guice and Saquon Barkley landing into very favorable spots with teams needing production. Their draft price is reflecting that. Once you get into the fourth round of most twelve team drafts, there’s an abundance of unproven upside available.

Ronald Jones, Rashad Penny, and Royce Freeman have opportunity shares that makes them very tempting. Keep an eye on them as the draft continues, but I’d personally let them go in favor of the truly elite upside this next player possesses. Let’s take a look at our current roster and see which way to lean in round four. If you want to know why we selected these players, just click on their name:

Round Four Selection: Sony Michel – RB, New England Patriots

Michel is an excellent selection at his current ADP, and he’s still relatively under the radar. There’s such an extreme bias to New England running backs that you can get him at a great value. Let’s take a look at the three main reasons Michel belongs on all of your fantasy football rosters:

1. The Patriots See Something Historically Special in Him

When a ball carrier goes off the board in the first round, your fantasy senses should tingle. When the Patriots take a back off the board that early, you should have a full-fledged alarm system going off in your house that screams DRAFT THAT MAN!

New England hasn’t drafted an offensive player in the first round since 2011…. and it was Nate Solder. He played offensive line. The last time they picked a skill position player within the first 45 picks of a draft? Rob Gronkowski. That turned out okay.

Simply put: the Patriots don’t do this. They saw something in Michel they haven’t seen in a long time, and the organization has passed on very talented players at the same spot time and time again. The fact they went out and broke all the rules they typically live by tells you Michel was someone they needed on this roster. With the departure of Dion Lewis, it all adds up to fantasy stardom for the former Georgia Bulldog.

Players I Want in Every Fantasy Football Draft: Round Four 

2. There’s Plenty of Goal Line Work Available

Is Rex Burkhead going to see some work next season? Absolutely. Is he going to see ALL the work? Not unless Bill retires and Sean McVay gets bored with the Rams. Burkhead doesn’t have the size or the sustainability to take on a Blount type role, and Michel is way too good to ride the bench. The Patriots wouldn’t have made the pick they did if they believed Burkhead was any type of bell cow. At worst, they will be in a timeshare. That’s typically the scariest word in fantasy, but New England isn’t a typical offense. Especially at the goal line.

Let’s take a look at a pair of teammates and how they performed inside the five yard line last season:

Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram: 17 Carries, 9 total TD’s

Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee: 19 Carries, 9 total TD’s

Now let’s take a look at the type of goal line opportunity the offense produced individually:

Rushing attempts inside 5 yard line, 2017:

14. Mike Gillislee – 8

21. Rex Burkhead – 7

22. Le’Veon Bell – 6

23. Kareem Hunt – 6

Not only did someone in New England see more goal line work than two of the top backs in the league…but both of them did, individually. This chart doesn’t even include Dion Lewis, who was an RB1 after Gil got benched. Even if Michel steps into a complete timeshare with Burkhead, he will still see plenty of touchdown opportunity. The New England offense is just that productive.

Players I Want in Every Fantasy Football Draft: Round Four 

3. Top Offense = Top RB

Last season the Patriots were the only top five offense not to produce a top five back. Obviously these other teams don’t have Tom Brady, but the data points to fantasy points left on the table. The fact we could potentially snag a flex player that will start on the top ranked offense in the league is a no brainer. New England is one of the only teams (alongside New Orleans) that has enough firepower to support two very good fantasy running backs.

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The particularly strange mid-season split between Mike Gillislee, Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead in 2017 really threw a wrench into the statistics of how the Patriots choose to distribute the running back load. Just one year prior, Legarrette Blount dominated the backfield and cruised to an RB9 finish. It looked like something similar for Gillislee early on.

But somewhere along the way, the front office saw more in Burkhead long-term and chose to bench Gil, and it changed how the year would end up data wise, but didn’t change the 1A-1B distribution they choose to use. It was just a swap between Burkhead and Gillislee, with Lewis taking the early work.

If Michel steps into the Dion Lewis role on early downs, he’s a value at this spot. If he steps into a full-blown time share with Burkhead….. he’s a value at this spot. Either scenario will lead to a much higher finish than RB19 where he’s currently being drafted. I want Michel on every team possible, and you’d be wise to do the same.

I’ll leave you with this, after all the data supporting his split role not being an issue: Considering he has the talent and potential to carry a team…..What if he ends up as a three down workhorse? 

Next: Is Tom Brady Worth Drafting?

Best of luck in your Fantasy Football drafts and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your draft prep heading to the start of the NFL season.