MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday July 11
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
What a weird night in MLB DFS honestly as this 15 game slate seemed so spread out with ownership that there really was not a “chalk” route people seemed to take. Personally, I went all-in on the Rockies-DBacks game stack and although the game did not go off, there was enough offense that when paired with decent pitching, it was more than enough to cash on this night. My biggest pivot throughout the day that really changed my cash position was moving off Garrett Richards and down to Elyon De Los Santos once the Mets line-up was released as the salary savings got me additional Coors bats and when the dust settled, Richards got whacked around while the Phillies rookie coasting to a solid DFS outing – sometimes tinkering works out I guess!
We have some BIG news at Fantasy CPR as we are now looking for PAID writers to join our team to write about fantasy sports. Seasonal or DFS, any sport you want – get your voice heard and get paid for talking fantasy sports. Apply today HERE!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Starting Pitching Overview:
FantasyDraft does have a three game early slate today for those of you who want some day time MLB DFS but my focus will be on the Main Slate which includes 11 games starting off at 7:05PM EST. We have three arms priced over $20K on this slate with Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom and Lance McCullers all elite SP1 options but with Coors Field (and two bad pitchers), the Red Sox against Bartolo Colon and the Yankees, Indians and Astros all with 5+ run totals, the question is always – can we pay down and get the bats we want?
I am not going to talk you off going with any of the elite arms as they are all great plays but I think there is a strong enough mid-tier on this slate that I would rather drop down and give me access to the big bats at first glance.
Luke Weaver ($15.6K) gets one of the best match-ups in MLB DFS against the K heavy White Sox and one night after seeing Miles Mikolas (a low K arm), rack up 6 K’s over 6 innings with 2 ER and 23 fantasy points, we can essentially attack the exact same spot with a higher K arm at a $4k discount off what we had to pay for Mikolas last night. Weaver’s 21% K rate and 9.6% swinging strike rate on the season are not going to jump off the page due to his game to game inconsistency but take a look through his game logs and you will see five game this year where Weaver has struck out 7 or more batters where he got 13% or more swinging strike rates so in the right match-up, Weaver has shown he can excel.
In a start against the White Sox, this appears to be the “right match-up” as Chicago has the third highest K rate (25.6%) against RHP this season and it looks like Weaver will get a favorable pitching umpire tonight in Paul Nauert so this is a spot where I feel good about rolling out Weaver who is coming off two brilliant outings against the Giants and Brewers where he went for 27 and 31 fantasy points on the back of 16 K’s versus 2 walks and only 2 ER allowed in each game.
Joey Lucchesi ($14.8K) is another arm with some intriguing K upside pitching at home in San Diego against a Dodgers team we just saw get dominated by Eric Lauer, another left-handed arm, last night. In that start Lauer struck out 8 batters with a 13% swinging strike rate and although using a Padres arm, ahem Luis Perdomo, two night ago backfired, following the Lauer blueprint with a lefty against the Dodgers could be a more favorable outcome this evening.
The interesting part of using Lucchesi is how dominant he has been against left-handed batters – having faced 56 so far this year (limited sample size I know), but has a 28.6% K rate with a 63% GB rate, giving up 0 HR and only one extra base hit. Now the Dodgers will likely go with a similar right-handed heavy line-up as they did last night with Bellinger and Muncy being the only LHB but are we really going to shy away from attacking a line-up with a Logan Forsythe, Austin Barnes and Kenta Maeda hitting in the bottom of the order?
Lucchesi did face this Dodgers team at home back in May, striking out 5 but also gave up 3 ER due to HR’s from both Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez and that is the risk here – Lucchesi has a 43%HC rate to RHB and has a 2 HR/9 mark in limited sample against RHB on the year. The other risk factor here and really the one that scares me more than tha match-up is that Lucchesi has only thrown 70, 81 and 85 pitches in his last three starts where Lauer went for 115 pitches in his start last night. There is upside here but if Luccehsi continues to face restrictions, the upside is very much capped here and outside of a GPP play, I may end up talking myself away from Lucchesi as the day goes on.
Marco Gonzales ($14.1K) is a pitcher we certainly do not have to worry about pitch counts with as the Mariners lefty has pitched over 100 pitches in six of his last nine games and has gone at least 6 innings in all but one of those outings. It may sound like a simple way to land on a pitcher but finding arms like this in the value range who we know will give us innings, gives us a better chance to grab the win and additional counting stats and although this match-up against the Angels may seem less than ideal, Gonzales has proven he can handle Mike Trout and company.
Gonzales has faced this Angels team three times already this season, including two of his last five starts, and he struck out exactly 7 Angels in each and every outing with fantasy totals of 25.3, 13.85 and 13.5. Normally we would think lefties against a right-handed heavy team like the Angels is a stacking spot but Gonzales has proven this year with a higher K rate (22.5% against RHB) and a low HR/9 (0.89 HR/9) with a HC rate of 33% that he can limit the damage while racking up solid K totals.
Step back and think of it this way – if I told you there was a pitcher that is basically a lock for 6 innings who will get you 7 K’s tonight (as he has done in each meeting versus LAA) and allow you to either pair with Chris Sale or stack with some big bats, wouldn’t you sign up for that right now?
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots:
All day yesterday I was convinced that the name pitchers in Coors combined with the juicy spots for the Red Sox and Yankees would leave the Rockies and Arizona under-owned for a game with an 11 total and when lock came around and my line-up was set (see below), you can see that the $25 GPP for example, the ownership for the majority of the plays was single digits.
Now today we have another night where the Red Sox should be popular considering they have a slate leading 6.3 run total against Bartolo Colon but with German Marquez and Shelby Miller on the mound in Denver with 95 degree temperatures and the wind blowing out, my guess is people will try to jam in Coors a bit more today than we saw on Tuesday.
Honestly, I do not care about ownership – this is an amazing spot and my goal is to game stack it every way I possibly can. Let’s start with the Rockies who will take on RHP Shelby Miller who has faced the Giants, Marlins and Padres in his first three starts (not exactly murderer’s row of bats), giving up 14 ER in 14 IP with a 61% hard contact rate and 4 HR’s and now gets to stroll into Coors Field – it feels like a 61% HC rate won’t work well in this game environment, just a hunch.
Lefties historically have been the ones who have hit Miller better, although this year in limited sample the beating is equal from both sides of the plate, but when you consider that guys like Carlos Gonzalez and Gerrardo Parra are $8.1K and $7.3K on FantasyDraft, I am inclined to play some of the cheaper lefties than paying up for guys like Trevor Story or DJ LeMahieu who are $10K and $8K and on the wrong side of their platoon splits. Charlie Blackmon ($10.7K) likely gets the nod as the premier Rockies bat to pay for with the splits advantage over Nolan Arenado, but let’s be honest – they are both top plays on this slate.
Arizona will take on German Marquez, a pitcher who has been destroyed at home this year and crushed by lefties – the bad news for him, he has to pitch at home against a line-up of lefties. Marquez has given up 2.7 HR/9 to lefties at home this year and will have to navigate through guys like David Peralta, Jake Lamb and Daniel Descalso, who all have 42% or higher HC rates against RHP this season with Peralta (.253) and Descalso (.215) having the best 2018 ISO marks while Jake Lamb (.270 ISO in 2017) can remind us in a hurry how good he is against RHP. Paul Goldschmidt ($11.1K) is the most expensive bat in this game and is the priority play for me even with a RHP on the mound as Goldy not only has insane numbers in Coors Field but he also has BvP against Marquez – going 8 for 15 with 3 HR’s against the Rockies RHP.
I am not telling you anything you do not know already – stacking up a game in Coors Field with an 11+ run total is not exactly rocket science – but you watch, people across the industry will try to talk up the Red Sox today and other “pivots” off the obvious Coors – it happens EVERY SINGLE TIME. DFS players and “touts” love to over think things – they try to get cute – listen, it happens to all of us, but on a slate this large and with solid mid-tier arms – I am simply going to find a way to go all-in here and let others make the mistake of fading it Coors on a hot night with two bad pitchers throwing. (1-0 tilt fest is totally incoming by the way).
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
More from FanSided
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
SP: Marco Gonzales ($14.1K)
SP: Luke Weaver ($15.6K)
IF: Jake Lamb ($9.4K)
IF: Paul Goldschmidt ($11.1K)
IF: Daniel Descalso ($7.6K)
OF: David Peralta ($9.4K)
OF: Charlie Blackmon ($10.7K)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez ($8.1K)
UTIL: Gerardo Parra ($7.3K)
UTIL: Brad Miller ($6.7K)
Slate Overview: Coors Field game stack and high K upside mid-tier arms is where my head is at initially and although it means fading the Red Sox bats and Chris Sale, honestly, I think that’s a calculated risk I am willing to take. I will do some more digging as the day goes on as always and post thoughts on Twitter @2LockSports so feel free to ask questions as we head towards lock. Good luck all!
Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!