DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Thursday, July 12
Welcome into the Thursday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have a seven game slate tonight so let’s get rolling.
When the games got rolling last night, I got very concerned that I had made a major mistake. Red Sox ace Chris Sale was totally chalk and we didn’t pitch him in our DFS MLB line-up. I had assumed that Coors would outweigh him but boy was I wrong. The good news was we were on the right Rockies and Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez combined for about 100 FanDuel points. There might be only seven games, but there’s no fewer than six ace-quality arms on the slate tonight. Let’s see where we want to go!
DFS MLB – Brewers at Pirates
Brewers Probable Starter – Wade Miley, LHP
*6.1 IP* 1.42 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 14.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .000 average, .197 wOBA, 0.0 K rate, 40.0 fly ball rate and 80.0 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .222 average, .282 wOBA, 20.0 K rate, 21.4 fly ball rate and 64.3 hard hit rate
We have virtually no sample size this season for Miley because he’s been hurt for so long. While that takes him out of consideration t me, we should probably be interested in Pirates righties. What we’re looking for is hitters with a solid walk rate against lefty pitching and hopefully ones that are good against the cutter. Miley throws that pitch more than any other at almost 40 percent and then he backs that up worth a fastball. Francisco Cervelli is the second leading righty hitter against the cutter and the team’s best fastball hitter. He also walks 19 percent of the time against lefties and Miley can have his issues with control. Josh Bell also has a super high walk rate and you can finish off a three-man Pirates stack with Starling Marte, who has a .211 ISO against lefty pitching.
Pirates Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Francisco Cervelli/Elias Diaz, Starling Marte, Josh Bell
Secondary Options – None
Pirates Probable Starter – Jameson Taillon, RHP
4.05 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 22.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .262 average, .332 wOBA, 17.5 K rate, 31.0 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .229 average, .266 wOBA, 26.8 K rate, 30.8 fly ball rate and 31.1 hard hit rate
It’s been a pretty uneven season for Taillon so far and this spot isn’t exactly the greatest for him unless he winds up striking people out. That is a possibility since the Brewers carry a strikeout percentage of over 25 percent against righty pitching. I don’t trust Taillon to get past the power lefties in the Brewers lineup and even righty Jesus Aguilar might be able to hit him given how smoking hot he is. Eric Thames is expensive but I would likely still play him over Christian Yelich at basically the same price tag. Thames and Travis Shaw carry the home run upside while Yelich is generally considered “safe”. Taillon introduced a slider into his repertoire but Thames and Yelich both hit that pitch well. Milwaukee’s better hitters are good against the fastball which Taillon throws a ton. I’m most likely to pay up for Thames and his .331 wOBA against righties this year.
Brewers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Eric Thames, Travis Shaw
Secondary Options – Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain
Home Run Pick – Josh Bell
DFS MLB – Yankees at Indians
Yankees Probable Starter – Luis Severino, RHP
2.12 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 29.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .185 average, .238 wOBA, 32.0 K rate, 29.8 fly ball rate and 34.8 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .205 average, .249 wOBA, 28.3 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 30.9 hard hit rate
This is a game that would likely be best served as tournaments. Each pitcher is a bona fide ace but faces a stiff test in the opposing offense. For Severino, this matchup is especially dangerous and no, it’s not just because the Indians hung 19 runs on the Reds last night. He throws the slider around 37 percent of the time and that could get him into trouble tonight. Cleveland is the third best team in the league against the slider and have one of the best in the game against that pitch, via FanGraphs. Francisco Lindor crushes sliders and so does Yan Gomes and Michael Brantley. I would only do this in GPP, but an Indians stack would likely be very low-owned. They would shoot you up a leader board in a hurry or you would sink to the bottom. I don’t think there’s much of a middle ground here tonight.
Indians Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez(who is awesome), Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion
Indians Probable Starter – Corey Kluber, RHP
2.49 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 25.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .200 average, .246 wOBA, 27.8 K rate, 31.6 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .213 average, .254 wOBA, 23.7 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 38.3 hard hit rate
It’s kind of the same story on this side of the game. I’m super excited to watch the game that could be a preview of an ALCS game in October, but I’m not sure I want to be heavily invested in it from a DFS standpoint. Even though Kluber hasn’t been striking out the same number of hitters as he did last year, I don’t think he gets mashed. I’d probably stick with just Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton and hope Kluber flips a curveball or fastball down the center and they don’t miss. When Kluber does get hit, he tends to give up the long ball just a bit. It’s closing in on a career high but still isn’t great at 1.21 HR/9. It’s been pretty even by the splits and he’s given up 17 on the season. You can really go nuts with a three man stack and plug in Didi Gregorius. I’m not recommending that you go charging off to attack some of the best pitchers in baseball. If you want to try it in a GPP, be prepared to finish far below the cutline.
Yankees Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius
Home Run Pick – Aaron Judge
DFS MLB – Blue Jays at Red Sox
Blue Jays Probable Starter – J.A. Happ, LHP
4.44 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 26.3 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .175 average, .224 wOBA, 28.2 K rate, 25.9 fly ball rate and 26.8 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .238 average, .315 wOBA, 25.9 K rate, 44.7 fly ball rate and 30.3 hard hit rate
Through the process of elimination, offenses we like tonight are going to be a little bit of slim pickings. One of the offenses we love is going to be pricey but the Red Sox draw a fastball heavy lefty in Fenway Park. The lock of the night for me, even this early is likely Steve Pearce. I wouldn’t be surprised to see his ownership clip 80 percent in cash and you just have to plug him in. He’s only got 10 at-bats against lefties with Boston but has a .500 ISO, .630 wOBA and a 313wRC+. He’s also got five homers off of Happ in 28 career at-bats and it’s a #RevengeGame. At only $3,500 he’s chalk and it’s best to eat it. Both Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez mash fastballs and I’ll lean slightly towards Martinez tonight. Betts has struggle with Happ in the past. Xander Bogaerts would also be fine, but I’m not sure I can pay $4,300 for him.
Red Sox Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Steve Pearce, Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez
Secondary Options – Xander Bogaerts
Red Sox Probable Starter – David Price, LHP
4.44 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 23.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .234 average, .330 wOBA, 22.2 K rate, 34.0 fly ball rate and 29.2 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .248 average, .324 wOBA, 24.1 K rate, 43.0 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate
I’m still very sour about the fact David Price pitched in Yankee Stadium on July 1st and it was Sunday Night Baseball so I couldn’t stack against him and win all the monies. As far as tonight goes, I think there’s some players we can pick our spots with. Price is relying in his cutter or fastball 78 percent of the time right now, which can make either pitch a little easier to figure out. The best two hitters by the pitch data are Kendrys Morales and Justin Smoak, with Big Ken being just $2,500. I think I’m going to have a good bit of him in my lineups as to help afford an ace and a big bat or two. His ISO and wOBA are a little below average and I don’t expect a monster game, just enough to chip in some production. Smoak is the better hitter with a .344 wOBA but is also $1,200 more expensive. The team as a whole rates pretty poorly against the cutter and don’t stand out against the fastball. I’m not going to play price but the Blue Jays aren’t the most appealing stacking option.
Blue Jays Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Justin Smoak
Secondary Options – Kendrys Morales, Randall Grichuk, Devon Travis as punt options
Home Run Pick – J.D. Martinez
DFS MLB – Nationals at Mets
Nationals Probable Starter – Max Scherzer, RHP
2.33 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 35.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .195 average, .273 wOBA, 32.4 K rate, 51.7 fly ball rate and 26.9 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .159 average, .226 wOBA, 38.7 K rate, 43.8 fly ball rate and 35.9 hard hit rate
The Mets just got shut down by Vince Velasquez and even though Scherzer has been a slightly mortal version his past six starts, I want nothing to do with Mets hitters tonight. Given the amount of options on the board tonight, I don’t think you NEED Scherzer tonight. As mentioned, he’s not in the best form. The big righty hasn’t exceeded 46 fantasy points since June 5th. At his price, that wouldn’t be good enough and the cheaper you go means the more bats you can fit in. I’d be surprised if he didn’t go for more than 50 points, but he’s not locked in for me yet.
Mets Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – None
Mets Probable Starter – Steven Matz, LHP
3.31 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 21.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .194 average, .283 wOBA, 18.8 K rate, 18.5 fly ball rate and 8.9 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .232 average, .322 wOBA, 22.2 K rate, 37.0 fly ball rate and 38.4 hard hit rate
Matz is having a really solid season and I don’t want to go nuts using hitters against him. I’m definitely heavily considering two and possibly a third, but I’m not convinced I would stack them up either. Usually, I look to Juan Soto when there’s a lefty on the mound because the young man kills them. He has a 1.119 OPS, .311 ISO and a .471 wOBA against lefties but Matz has been excellent against that handedness. II’m more likely to take career lefty killer Anthony Rendon with his .240 ISO against lefties and Trea Turner because if he gets on base, he’s almost guaranteed to attempt a steal and should be able to get it. He’s swiped seven bags off of lefty pitching so far this year and could add another tonight. The Mets battery isn’t very good at guarding against stolen bases. I guess you could think about adding Michael A. Taylor as well for that reason. He’s got three steals off a lefty and does have a little pop with a .167 ISO.
Nationals Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon
Secondary Options – Juan Soto, Michael A. Taylor
Home Run Pick – Anthony Rendon
DFS MLB – Rays at Twins
Rays Probable Starter – Blake Snell, LHP
2.09 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 28.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .125 average, .177 wOBA, 33.0 K rate, 27.9 fly ball rate and 37.1 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .199 average, .282 wOBA, 27.6 K rate, 39.9 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate
Other than possibly Brian Dozier, I’m having a hard time finding anyone worth a play from the Minnesota offense. Snell owns lefty hitters this season and that eliminates Eddie Rosario right off the bat. Joe Mauer is nothing more than a cash play on a good day, but he’s out as a lefty. Logan Morrison probably won’t even start and Eduardo Escobar is on the wrong side of his split. Their best hitter against lefty pitching is Max Kepler, who also bats lefty. It would be stunning if Snell didn’t dominate in this game. In addition to the numbers, we have the All-Star Snub narrative working as well. Snell is an excellent pivot off of Scherzer.
Twins Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Brian Dozier
Twins Probable Starter – Kyle Gibson, RHP
3.59 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 23.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .247 average, .303 wOBA, 23.0 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 37.9 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .209 average, .295 wOBA, 23.4 K rate, 28.5 fly ball rate and 36.1 hard hit rate
The Rays have been hot lately but that presents a bit of a challenge tonight. They’re a good bit pricier than they normally are but the one that I would still like to play is one of the cheaper ones. Jake Bauers is $3,200 which is reasonable and he hits the fastball and slider well. Those are the two pitches that Gibson leans on more than most, especially the fastball. He also has an excellent walk to strikeout rate and has the team lead in ISO and is .001 behind the lead for wOBA against righty pitching. Hitters like Wilson Ramos, Matt Duffy and Daniel Robertson are totally fine, but I’m not sure I want to play Tampa hitters more than players from other teams. The attraction with the Rays is their usually cheap. Gibson is an above average pitcher, as well. He’s not in play for me tonight since there are so many ace options on the slate.
Rays Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Jake Bauers
Secondary Options – Matt Duffy, Daniel Robertson, Wilson Ramos
Home Run Pick – Jake Bauers
DFS MLB – Mariners at Angels
Mariners Probable Starter – James Paxton, LHP
3.49 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 32.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .311 average, .366 wOBA, 35.7 K rate, 23.6 fly ball rate and 29.1 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .188 average, .251 wOBA, 31.5 K rate, 45.2 fly ball rate and 36.1 hard hit rate
Paxton has been a beast all season and I’m fairly interested in him tonight. The Angels aren’t very good against lefties this year, ranking 20th or worse in average, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. They do have a solid strikeout rate, fourth best in baseball. It does make me wonder if Paxton can really hit this ceiling since his strikeout rate is lower against righty hitters. Still, the only hitter I want as a GPP play is Mike Trout. He’s always solid option on any given night, especially against a lefty pitcher. He has a .455 wOBA against lefties and a .313 ISO so he can get to any lefty, even one as good as Paxton. You could argue for Andrelton Simmons or Jefry Marte as a punt option but I’m not thinking that’s the way I’ll go. At this point, I would bet Paxton is one of the lower owned power pitchers tonight.
Angels Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Mike Trout(GPP)
Secondary Options -Andrelton Simmons, Jefry Marte
Angels Probable Starter – Tyler Skaggs, LHP
2.64 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 26.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .174 average, .209 wOBA, 31.9 K rate, 39.3 fly ball rate and 35.5 fly ball rate
Vs RHH – .269 average, .324 wOBA, 24.6 K rate, 30.6 fly ball rate and 38.0 fly ball rate
If Seattle was at home, I would be a lot more interested but they represent a really good against the grain option in Nelson Cruz. His wOBA against lefties is spiked at .436 and the ISO is at .384. The pitch data doesn’t look like the greatest for Cruz because Skaggs throws his curve a good bit. Cruz doesn’t rate well against that pitch but Jean Segura does. He’s also got a .389 wOBA and has stolen base upside with six off of lefty pitching this year. If Skaggs were any cheaper, I might actually take a shot at him instead of the Seattle offense tonight. Skaggs throws the fastball and curve combo 88 percent of the time. Seattle is 19th against the fastball and 28th against the curveball as a team. Tread lightly if you’re playing Mariners hitters. If Skaggs is healthy, he could have a really big game. An oblique injury is always scary for any baseball player, let alone a pitcher.
Mariners Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Nelson Cruz(GPP)
Secondary Options – Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura
Home Run Pick – Mike Trout
DFS MLB – Dodgers at Padres
Dodgers Probable Starter – Ross Stripling, RHP
2.22 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 28.7 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .237 average, .268 wOBA, 31.5 K rate, 29.3 fly ball rate and 24.4 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .244 average, .292 wOBA, 25.7 K rate, 37.2 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate
The cheapest of the ace pitchers, Stripling draws one of the juiciest matchups on the board. San Diego is basically tied for the highest strikeout rate in baseball and that would be something Stripling can take advantage of. He throws the slider and the curve almost 40 percent of the time. Nobody stands out in a positive position for the slate tonight. Even if Stripling gives up a couple runs, the large amount of strikeouts that should be in play should negate things tonight. I really can’t see me forcing any Padres onto my roster right now. You can make the argument that Wil Myers should be in play even though he’s relatively expensive.
Padres Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Wil Myers
Padres Probable Starter – Tyson Ross, RHP
4.41 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 21.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .303 average, .381 wOBA, 18.9 K rate, 24.5 fly ball rate and 39.1 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .168 average, .249 wOBA, 23.5 K rate, 36.0 fly ball rate and 39.0 hard hit rate
Ross really just throws two pitches, the fastball and the slider. He also really scuffles with lefties and that makes me interested into Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger. They both hit lefty and they hit the fastball slider combo extremely well. Even with the high pricing, it’s still fine to do a Dodger stack and save some money with Joc Pederson and even Matt Kemp. Justin Turner would also be very nice to own because he has a wOBA over .400, even though he’s on the wrong side of the split. I flat don’t trust Ross tonight as he comes into this game in very poor form and against a good offense. If it’s a Dodger and hit lefty, you may as well be on my team. Kemp and Turner are a hair under everyone else since they’re righty but the free square for the night might be Andrew Toles, who is just $2,000 on FanDuel. There is ISO galore from the Dodgers lefties to be had.
Dodgers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Andrew Toles, Max Muncy, Cody Belleinger
Secondary Options – Justin Turner, Matt Kemp
Home Run Pick – Cody Bellinger
DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup
P- Blake Snell
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C/1B – Steve Pearce
2B – Jonathan Villar
3B – Anthony Rendon
SS – Trea Turner
OF – Andrew Toles, Joc Pederson, Randall Grichuk
Utility – Kendrys Morales
Tonight is going to be a very interesting build. Max Scherzer is going to be very chalky in all formats tonight. I’m learning towards not paying all the way up for him because it just doesn’t feel like it’s necessary. There’s a bunch of players that can come very close to Scherzer from a points per dollar perspective. Pearce has to be in any cash lineup, and Villar is just kind of hopeful option. The Rendon and Turner combo will have to do a good bit of heavy lifting but they’re certainly capable of it. We stick with the two-man mini stack and take a couple hitters from the Blue Jays and the Dodgers.
The Core – Steve Pearce, Andrew Toles, one of the big name aces
Pitching to Consider
High End – Top Shelf Aces
Mid-Range – Tyler Skaggs, Jameson Taillon
Punts – Kyle Gibson
Stacks to Consider – Los Angels Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, Milwaukee lefties, Toronto Blue Jays
As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.