DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Friday, July 13

Welcome into the Friday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have our normal Friday madness on tap for tonight so let’s go to work!

Yesterday was pretty cut and dry because Max Scherzer was so chalk, he was borderline irrelevant in DFS MLB cash. He and Anthony Rendon carried the lineup as the rest of it was a struggle. Fortunately we still turned a profit because we coasted in cash games but we missed tournaments by just a handful of points. Since we have a huge 15 game slate tonight, let’s put yesterday where it belongs and get moving!

DFS MLB – Brewers at Pirates

Brewers Probable Starter – Junior Guerra, RHP 

2.79 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 23.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .215 average, .303 wOBA, 25.0 K rate, 40.2 fly ball rate and 41.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .224 average, .287 wOBA, 21.7 K rate, 43.0 fly ball rate and 43.2 hard hit rate

I hope everyone enjoyed the buffet of aces that we got yesterday because that’s not going to be the case tonight. There’s not a lot of sure things on tonight’s slate and I think Guerra might at least be in the running.The walks have been a little worse lately but one thing that stands out is the Pirates are not a very good fastball hitting team. They rank 23rd in baseball and Francisco Cervelli is the only real standout in that regard. Guerra throws the fastball over 70 percent of the time and that could play up pretty well tonight. He did get beat up by the Pirates in his previous start against them earlier this year, giving up five runs over five innings. I think my exposure here might be limited to Cervelli or maybe Gregory Polanco, who both have a wOBA over .330 and an ISO over .225 against righty pitching.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Francisco Cervelli

Secondary Options – Gregory Polanco

Pirates Probable Starter – Nick Kingham, RHP 

4.26 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 22.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .256 average, .350 wOBA, 14.9 K rate, 44.4 fly ball rate and 36.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .202 average, .266 wOBA, 29.5 K rate, 38.3 fly ball rate and 39.3 hard hit rate

Kingham has been all over the board so far in his big league career and he’s certainly got his share of risk tonight. There’s potential to exploit the Brewers and their strikeout rate against righty pitching(fifth highest in the league) but I’m not convinced Kingham has shown the strikeout ability to bank on that to handle the Brewers. I won’t be playing the righty hitters from Milwaukee this evening because the strikeout rate has such a drastic split between the handedness.The big issue is his splits against lefty hitters so far. If you can’t miss the bats of Eric Thames and Travis Shaw, that might not end well. Both those hitters have ISO’s over .275 and Thames is up over .325. If Kingham can control the lefties, he actually should have a pretty good game. I just don’t think he can hold those hitters and Jesus Aguilar down to make things worth it to roster on FanDuel. He’s more of a tournament style SP2 on another site.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Travis Shaw, Eric Thames

Secondary Options – Christian Yelich, Jesus Aguilar

Home Run Pick – Francisco Cervelli

DFS MLB – Rangers at Orioles

Rangers Probable Starter – Cole Hamels, LHP 

4.28 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 23.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .276 average, .342 wOBA, 16.4 K rate, 26.1 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .247 average, .347 wOBA, 24.7 K rate, 34.7 fly ball rate and 47.0 hard hit rate

You’d have to be brave to play Hamels tonight, although a case could be made that the Orioles are just so bad he might make it through a quality start. The issue for camels is he’s a lefty pitcher facing a righty heavy lineup and he’s given up 20 homers to right-handed hitting so far, good for a 2.04 HR/9. I want righties who can hit the ball out of the yard and the one that get’s my interest right of the hop is Danny Valencia. He’s just $2,600 on FanDuel and it really seems like too good of a matchup to pass up with him leading the Orioles with a .250 ISO. Manny Machado also seems too cheap for his talent as he’s just $4,100. Machado doesn’t strikeout against lefties either, with it being down under eight percent. If you wanted to stack one more bat, you could take Jonathan Schoop or Mark Trumbo. Schoop’s seasonal numbers look ghastly but he’s been white-hot lately. Trumbo has the power to payoff with Hamels serving home runs at a crazy high rate.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Danny Valencia, Manny Machado

Secondary Options – Mark Trumbo, Jonathan Schoop

Orioles Probable Starter – Alex Cobb, RHP 

6.67 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 15.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .318 average, .386 wOBA, 18.3 K rate, 36.0 fly ball rate and 35.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .309 average, .383 wOBA, 12.3 K rate, 30.3 fly ball rate and 33.7 hard hit rate

I’m all in on Shin-soo Choo tonight. Even at $3,300, he’s way too cheap in this spot against Alex Cobb and there could be a big game in the offing. Cobb leans heavily on the fastball, just about 56 percent of the time. Choo is the fifth best fastball hitter in baseball and is on the slightly better side of the splits. The Rangers outfielder has a .411 wOBA against righties to go along with a .256 ISO. The only small nit pick I can make is he is more than happy to take a walk, which could limit the ceiling. He’s a slam dunk cash play though. What’s interesting here is no other Texas hitter ranks all that great against the fastball. There in the bottom 10 in baseball and would be way worse if to for Choo. Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus are both solid against the curveball, which is thrown 24 percent. Cobb only throws a changeup otherwise and Joey Gallo rates well against that pitch, but is surely just a GPP option. Rougned Odor has been going well lately and is at a very reasonable price point. Choo is the one-off you want and I think that’s it unless you’re going full Rangers stack, which might be one of the best options on the night. Cobb is in  a frightfully bad spot.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Shin-soo Choo, Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara

Secondary Options – Jurickson Profar, Elvis Andrus, Joey Gallo,

Home Run Pick – Danny Valencia, Shin-soo Choo

DFS MLB – Yankees at Indians

Yankees Probable Starter – Domingo German, RHP 

5.06 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 26.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .234 average, .334 wOBA, 21.5 K rate, 42.9 fly ball rate and 36.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .229 average, .309 wOBA, 31.6 K rate, 34.3 fly ball rate and 38.4 hard hit rate

These two offenses proved that they can get it done against any pitcher in baseball yesterday. Since there are no aces on this slate, I’m pretty close to just putting Jose Ramirez into every single one of my lineups tonight. He’s been completely on fire, he destroys righty pitching with a .366 ISO and a .441 wOBA and German has shown the ability to get touched up in the past. He throws a fastball and a curve as his main pitch mix and Ramirez profiles fine against the curve and is the best in baseball against the fastball. I was fully prepared to see him at around $5,300 on FanDuel. He’s $4,600. Fade him at you peril this evening. We’re in the same boat as the past few nights with Cleveland because any lefty bat is in a pretty good spot. German has shown flashed but not enough to think the Indians won’t touch him up. You could easily pair Francisco Lindor with Ramirez and consider any left hitter that ends up in the lineup.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley

Secondary Options –Tyler Naquin, Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis

Indians Probable Starter – Shane Bieber, RHP 

3.47 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 23.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .347 average, .422 wOBA, 22.8 K rate, 40.7 fly ball rate and 55.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .263 average, .267 wOBA, 23.4 K rate, 25.9 fly ball rate and 37.9 hard hit rate

Bieber has not been able to handle lefty hitters yet in his young career and you have to be interested with the fly ball and hard hit rates displayed. If you’re not going to play Lindor, Didi Gregorius could be the play right in this same game. His .242 ISO is the second best on the team for lefty hitters behind only Greg Bird. There’s a strong case to be made to stack up Gregorius, Bird, Brett Gardner and Arron Judge. While Judge is a righty hitter, he profiles extremely well against the fastball and slider. Aaron Hicks is in the mix as well because his price has finally come back down. Just note that he’s typically been better against lefty pitching this season. Bieber relies not those two pitches more than anything else and this is going to be a tough spot for the youngster to succeed.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Didi Gregorius, Brett Gardner, Greg Bird

Secondary Options – Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton

Home Run Pick – Jose Ramirez, Greg Bird

DFS MLB – Phillies at Marlins

Phillies Probable Starter – Jake Arrieta, RHP 

3.47 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 17.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .308 wOBA, 16.4 K rate, 31.1 fly ball rate and 24.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .242 average, .294 wOBA, 17.9 K rate, 24.7 fly ball rate and 29.7 hard hit rate

Arrieta has shown the ability to jump up and have a useful fantasy game now and again but I really don’t want to play him tonight. I just can’t shake the feeling he’s going to be sitting at around 25 FanDuel points when it’s all said and done this evening. There are only three hitters on my radar this evening. Two of them are the normal suspects for the Marlins, Justin Bour and J.T. Realmuto. Of the two, I’d prefer Realmuto since he’s done work against righty pitching, with a 1.027 OPS, .268 ISO and a .434 wOBA against them this season. The wild card is Derek Dietrich because he ranks as the best hitter in the majors against the cutter, which Arrieta throws 20 percent of the time. Dietrich is also solid against the fastball and that’s the majority of Arrieta’s arsenal at this point.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – J.T. Realmuto

Secondary Options – Derek Dietrich, Justin Bour

Marlins Probable Starter – Wei-Yin Chen, LHP 

6.14 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 16.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .228 average, .261 wOBA, 32.2 K rate, 31.6 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .293 average, .377 wOBA, 12.6 K rate, 43.5 fly ball rate and 34.1 hard hit rate

*Takes a deep breath, prepares to look very, very dumb* I actually don’t think Chen is the worst play on the board tonight. He’s been very up and down lately but he’s shown the ability to be solid at home. Solid is actually underselling it because he has a 1.89 ERA and a .246 wOBA at home in 33.1 innings pitched. In addition, the Phillies on the road against lefty pitching rank dead last in average, OPS, ISO,and wRC+ while raising up to 29th in wOBA. It’s would not make you feel warm and fuzzy with Chen in the lineup like a quality pitcher would but there are some serious factors that line up for him to have a solid game tonight. I think the only hitters you really want to consider here are Rhys Hoskins and Carlos Santana just because they can hit a home run. Even if you don’t want to play Chen, Philly doesn’t seem like the offense to chase on this large of a slate.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez

Home Run Pick – Derek Dietrich

DFS MLB – Blue Jays at Red Sox

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Ryan Borucki, LHP 

2.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 19.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .243 wOBA, 12.5 K rate, 28.6 fly ball rate and 28.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .253 average, .289 wOBA, 21.5 K rate, 44.4 fly ball rate and 31.1 hard hit rate

We’ve gotten three starts from Borucki and he’s looked good so far by plenty of metrics. I’m still not pitching him in Fenway against the top of the Red Sox lineup. Between Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez alone, Borucki isn’t a strong play. He throws his fastball over 60 percent and that is a terrible idea against those two hitters. They’re second and third in baseball against that pitch and they rate well against the changeup as well. A very interesting play that would go un-owned in tournaments is Andrew Benintendi. He’s not one I normally look to against a lefty pitcher though he does carry a .200 ISO. The reason I’m thinking about it tonight is because he rates well against the fastball and he’s the second best hitter against the changeup in the majors. Borucki throws that over 27 percent and he could get rocked tonight. You could polish off a Red Sox stack with Xander Bogaerts as well. Steve Pearce would be an elite play but he did leave the game last night after being hit by a pitch, so we’ll see if he’s in the lineup.

Red Sox Hitters to Target

Elite Options – J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Steve Pearce(if active)

Secondary Options – Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi

Red Sox Probable Starter – Rick Porcello, RHP

3.58 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 22.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .235 average, .304 wOBA, 26.9 K rate, 43.0 fly ball rate and 39.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .244 average, .286 wOBA, 19.3 K rate, 29.4 fly ball rate and 25.5 hard hit rate

I don’t think Porcello is a bad play tonight but I’m also not sure I want to pay close to five figures for him tonight. The only hitters I normally target against Porcello with is the lefties that have power and Justin Smoak is that man for a few reasons. First, he has a wOBA of .365 and an ISO of .263. Secondly, he rates very well against the fastball/slider combo that makes up about 75 percent of Porcello’s pitch mix. The price tag is fine and I’m not sure how many Blue Jays I’d really want to chase. Players might head towards Curtis Granderson but that play isn’t for me. He’s poor against the slider and just isn’t that good of a player. If it was a smaller slate, I could see it but I’m not staring at a zero from Granderson all night long. Yangervis Solarte could be an option but he’s just a totally average player. This really isn’t that appealing of a game other than the Boston offense and Smoak should fly way under the radar tonight.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Justin Smoak

Secondary Options – Curtis Granderson, Yangervis Solarte

Home Run Pick – Andrew Benintendi

DFS MLB – Nationals at Mets

Nationals Probable Starter – Tanner Roark, RHP

4.76 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 19.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .263 average, .342 wOBA, 21.6 K rate, 35.6 fly ball rate and 27.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .252 average, .323 wOBA, 17.7 K rate, 34.8 fly ball rate and 32.5 hard hit rate

Things haven’t been going very well for Roark lately, as he’s gotten beat up in three of his last four starts. I might not be too heavy on the Mets but Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera and Jose Bautista would all be perfectly fine options. Nimmo is a lefty and punishes fastballs which Roark throws over 55 percent on the season. Bautista has actually been quietly productive to some extent, sporting a .213 ISO against righty pitching and a wOBA over .370. Cabrera is a solid hitter up against a pitcher who is struggling to find his way right now. A player that should carry no ownership is Wilmer Flores. Long known around the fantasy community as a lefty killer, Flores has produced a .252 ISO and a .375 wOBA against righty pitching this year. New York has a pesky offense against righty pitching so I won’t be on Roark.

Mets Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera

Secondary Options – Jose Bautista, Wilmer Flores

Mets Probable Starter – Noah Syndergaard, RHP 

3.06 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 28.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .274 average, .308 wOBA, 28.8 K rate, 25.0 fly ball rate and 25.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .227 average, .274 wOBA, 27.7 K rate, 30.0 fly ball rate and 22.2 hard hit rate

The man known as “Thor” is back from the disabled list and I actually think that the Nationals could be an elite stacking option tonight if you’re trying to be sneaky. Syndergaard has battled injuries and inconsistencies(by his standards) this year. He’s been significantly worse against lefties and the Nationals have their best hitters on that side of the plate. The best news is the FanDuel’s pricing factored in the Syndergaard effect so Washington is very cheap. None of their hitters are over $4,000, including Bryce Harper. He and Juan Soto are excellent against the fastball which is the main pitch for Syndergaard. There’s also no telling with what you’ll get from the big righty after not pitching since the end of May. This would be a totally GPP play as nothing is a good cash play. If you stack Nationals, understand the risk involved going into it.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Bryce Harper, Juan Soto

Secondary Options – Adam Eaton, Matt Adams, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner

Home Run Pick – Juan Soto

DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Braves

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Zack Godley, RHP 

4.80 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 22.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .270 average, .355 wOBA, 20.1 K rate, 22.1 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .257 average, .326 wOBA, 24.9 K rate, 32.9 fly ball rate and 39.0 hard hit rate

We have another “buy-low” opportunity tonight with Freddie Freeman because he’s in a dynamite spot. Not only is he in the comfort of his home park, he’s a top 10 hitter against the curveball. That’s important because that pitch is one of the most important ones that Godley throws, more than his fastball. Nick Markakis and John Carmago also rate above average against that pitch. I might leave Ozzie Albies off any Braves stack solely based off the pitch dat because he’s struggled with the curve so far in 2018. However, it’s fair to not that he will bat lefty against Godley and has the highest ISO on the team against righty pitching. If I only had to pick one, Freeman is the way I would go. Nick Markakis is fine but he’s only $500 cheaper than the MVP candidate. Godley has been too inconsistent so far to gain heavy consideration.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis

Secondary Options – Johan Carmago, Ender Inciarte, Ozzie Albies

Braves Probable Starter – Anibal Sanchez, RHP 

2.72 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 23.3 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .190 average, .280 wOBA, 26.9 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 28.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .203 average, .272 wOBA, 20.5 K rate, 43.6 fly ball rate and 24.0 hard hit rate

I have no idea what is going on with Sanchez this year. He’s throwing all sorts of junk so I don’t think the pitch data is going to be that much of a help. Until he proves otherwise, I’m not going to be targeting against Sanchez. In 11 starts this year, he’s given up more than two earned runs just three times. You can play Paul Goldschmidt in any game if you want but he’s not someone who truly stands out for any reason. Daniel Descalso might be the best play from this game. Sanchez doesn’t throw any pitch an overwhelming amount but the fastball and cutter top the list. Descalso is good against both those pitches and he has a .360 wOBA. This side of the game is mostly just an avoid for me.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Paul Goldschmidt, Daniel Descalso, David Peralta

Home Run Pick – Freddie Freeman

DFS MLB – Tigers at Astros

Tigers Probable Starter – Mike Fiers, RHP 

3.65 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 17.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .253 average, .337 wOBA, 18.0 K rate, 45.3 fly ball rate and 38.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .251 average, .309 wOBA, 17.7 K rate, 45.4 fly ball rate and 37.0 hard hit rate

Almost everything in the profile screams to target against Fiers every single time out. Yet, he’s continued to be a solid pitcher even though I can’t really see how. I’m still leaning that he won’t have a good start in Houston in part because he has some pretty sharp splits between home and road. Alex Bregman continues to be locked in on another level and would be a very viable alternative to Jose Ramirez at the third base spot. In his last 25 games, a whopping 20 have been at least nine FanDuel points and there’s a lot of 20+ games mixed in there. Hitters like Josh Reddick and Kyler Tucker are perfectly viable in that mid-range and you can never be too wrong playing Jose Altuve in cash game settings. As much as I think Fiers will get hit in this start, there’s probably more risk than the average player might think about. He’s not a gas can even though he has the perception of it.

Astros Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve

Secondary Options -Josh Reddick, Kyle Tucker, George Springer, Evan Gattis

Astros Probable Starter – Dallas Keuchel, LHP

3.95 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 17.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .298 average, .334 wOBA, 20.9 K rate, 12.3 fly ball rate and 24.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .246 average, .299 wOBA, 17.9 K rate, 25.9 fly ball rate and 29.7 hard hit rate

This is quietly a pretty poor spot for Keuchel and given the construction of the slate, I could see him being popular in cash due to name recognition. The Tigers offense isn’t all that good but they are significantly better against lefty pitching. They rate in the top 12 of average, OPS, ISO,  wOBA and wRC+. Those numbers do drop a little bit on the road but everything is still 16th or better. It’s not like Keuchel has been anything special this season. Nicholas Castellanos is the best play on the board for Detroit, with a .487 wOBA and a .281 ISO. Even with Keuchel being able to generate ground balls, I would favor Castellanos in this matchup. John Hicks is also an excellent low-cost option with his .400 wOBA and he’s just $2,600 if you need some savings with some power upside. I don’t think I would go too heavy on this game as a whole. There’s a few plays that I really like but the stacks don’t seem quite as appealing as they might appear on paper. Both these pitchers are capable of ruining your night in a hurry.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nicholas Castellanos, John Hicks

Secondary Options – Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum

Home Run Pick – Alex Bregman

DFS MLB – Royals at White Sox

Royals Probable Starter – Brad Keller, RHP 

2.52 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 14.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .203 average, .259 wOBA, 14.9 K rate, 20.3 fly ball rate and 27.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .255 average, .280 wOBA, 13.8 K rate, 26.0 fly ball rate and 33.1 hard hit rate

I’m not terribly sure what to make of Keller in this spot. I absolutely don’t think he’s a good pitcher but he did have a string of pretty strong starts before his hiccup against the Red Sox last time out. If you played Wednesday night, you know how poor the White Sox offense can be some days because they were highly owned and didn’t do much for owners. You can argue for any of Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu or Matt Davidson. The issue becomes none of those players carries a wOBA over .336 against righty pitching. That’s not something that is going to interest me all that much on a monster slate. I don’t see much reason to really chase the White Sox offense this evening.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu, Matt Davidson

White Sox Probable Starter – James Shields, RHP 

4.53 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 16.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .190 average, .279 wOBA, 17.5 K rate, 40.0 fly ball rate and 30.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .272 average, .335 wOBA, 15.9 K rate, 43.9 fly ball rate and 36.5 hard hit rate

I’m willing to bet that players may head towards the lefties of Lucas Duda and Mike Moustakas but I won’t be one of them. Shields hasn’t been great, but he’s been better than a lot of folks seem to think. He’s also been way better at home than on the road. Since he’s been reverse splits, you can Whit Merrifield but he has almost zero power against righty pitching as evidenced by his 0.87 ISO. The Royals offense is one of the worst in the league by some metrics and this game is one of the best examples of the need to pretend some games don’t exist on a certain slate. I have no real interest in this game and I feel strongly that you shouldn’t either. Even the pitchers carry no real upside because Keller is $100 more expensive than Chen in Miami.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Whit Merrifield, Lucas Duda, Mike Moustakas

Home Run Pick – Matt Davidson

DFS MLB – Rays at Twins

Rays Probable Starter – Nathan Eovaldi, RHP 

3.55 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 24.3 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .171 average, .231 wOBA, 22.2 K rate, 38.6 fly ball rate and 32.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .204 average, .278 wOBA, 26.0 K rate, 36.1 fly ball rate and 30.6 hard hit rate

If you forced me to take a guess at of this point, I’m going to guess that Eovaldi will be the most popular pitching option in cash games. I’m not sure I could really argue that because Eovaldi is coming off an incredible start at the Mets, scoring 58 points. His numbers against the lefty hitters he has faced is what attracts me the most because the Twins will typically have at least three lefties and two or more switch hitters. If we get a lineup that will feature six or eight lefty hitters, I think Eovaldi might be the route to go. Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar and Jorge Polanco(in a small sample so far) all do have a wOBA over .380 against righty pitching. I would just tend to side with the splits Eovaldi has shown so far and he’s not even $8,000 on FanDuel.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Ecobar, Jorge Polanco

Twins Probable Starter – Jake Odorizzi, RHP 

4.28 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 24.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .248 average, .361 wOBA, 22.5 K rate, 49.6 fly ball rate and 37.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .251 average, .328 wOBA, 25.5 K rate, 46.6 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Odorizzi is a total wild card on this slate. He probably won’t get a ton of ownership and he has a floor of about 10 points and a ceiling of around 45 or so. Unless you’re going to stack this Rays lineup, I think there’s only two hitters that you wan to consider. Kevin Kiermaier brings a bit of speed and pop while hitting lefty, which Odorizzi has given up more home runs. Jake Bauers will probably give you the higher chance at a home run with his .203 ISO. Odorizzi has some upside because none of the Rays regular players have a strikeout rate under 20 percent other than Matt Duffy. This would appear to be a GPP side of the game for any purpose.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Kevin Kiermaier, Jake Bauers, Matt Duffy

Home Run Pick – Wilson Ramos

DFS MLB – Reds at Cardinals

Reds Probable Starter – Matt Harvey, RHP 

4.80 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 17.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .277 average, .356 wOBA, 16.6 K rate, 41.9 fly ball rate and 41.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .246 average, .300 wOBA, 18.1 K rate, 30.6 fly ball rate and 34.8 hard hit rate

I’m not going to use him but we’re witnessing at least some sort of resurgence from Harvey right now. He hasn’t given up more than two earned runs in his last four starts and while the strikeouts haven’t been there, I don’t think the Cards have the right lineup to take advantage of it. The reason I say that is because St. Louis is a righty heavy squad and that’s been the strength of Harvey’s game all year long. Using Matt Carpenter seems like a solid idea because he’s a lefty that has torn up righty pitching all year long. The .253 ISO looks especially appealing and I wouldn’t be surprised if Carpenter is popular this evening. I might actually consider Jose Martinez as well because he hits the fastball well and is the team’s best hitter against the slider. Those are the two main pitches for Harvey and I really think it’s Carpenter or bust from this side of the game.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Options – Jose Martinez

Cardinals Probable Starter – Carlos Martinez, RHP 

3.05 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 22.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .214 average, .287 wOBA, 18.8 K rate, 37.1 fly ball rate and 35.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .243 average, .311 wOBA, 26.5 K rate, 26.4 fly ball rate and 37.9 hard hit rate

Maybe the Reds offense scares people off, but Martinez might be one of the better pitching options available tonight. He’s really controlled lefty bats this season but doesn’t have a ton of strikeout upside looking at the splits. If I played any Reds, I might just take a stab at Eugenio Suarez because the wOBA given up is higher for the righty hitters. He also leads the team in ISO against righties by almost .40 at a healthy .266. That really might be one of the only hitters I consider from the Reds tonight. Paying up for Scooter Gennettt or Joey Votto seems like a poor idea given the plaits on display for Martinez. The Cardinals pitcher is firmly in play for an option at starting pitcher tonight, although it’s probably not a good idea to call him safe.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eugenio Suarez

Secondary Options – Scooter Gennett, Joey Votto

Home Run Pick – Eugenio Suarez

DFS MLB – Mariners at Rockies

Mariners Probable Starter – TBD

As of this writing, we don’t know who’s starting for the Mariners. They pushed James Paxton up a day because Felix Hernandez went on the disabled list and Paxton was only able to go 0.2 innings yesterday. This bullpen is likely going to be gassed considering they had to pitch most of the game.  It would seem foolish to not have at least a Rockie or two in cash but we’ll make that call once we get there.

Rockies Hitters to target 

Elite Options – TBD

Secondary Options – TBD

Rockies Probable Starter – Antonio Senzatela, RHP 

5.34 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 13.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .280 average, .327 wOBA, 16.4 K rate, 32.5 fly ball rate and 36.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .239 average, .303 wOBA, 14.3 K rate, 30.0 fly ball rate and 36.7 hard hit rate

This is a very interesting spot. The Mariners offense will likely be without one of their main weapons because Seattle was already talking like Nelson Cruz won’t be in the lineup because their is no designated hitter. If Cruz isn’t in the lineup, playing Senzatela could be worth a dart throw in large tournaments. Mitch Haniger might be the only hitter that I would be really interested in on this side of of the game. He has a .249 ISO and rates well against the fastball and slider mix that he’ll see around 90 percent of the time tonight. Outside of the ERA, a lot of the metrics aren’t gas-can level bad that one might think. I would rather play Rockies than Jean Segura and Dee Gordon in this game so it’s possible I won’t be crazy heavy on Coors Field tonight. Once we know who’s pitching for Seattle, we can really pick a lane.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mitch Haniger

Secondary Options – Jean Segura

Home Run Pick – Nolan Arenado

DFS MLB – Cubs at Padres

Cubs Probable Starter – Tyler Chatwood, RHP 

5.01 ERA, 1.78 WHIP and 20.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .301 average, .386 wOBA, 16.6 K rate, 29.1 fly ball rate and 34.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .155 average, .288 wOBA, 21.4 K rate, 23.8 fly ball rate and 22.6 hard hit rate

The chickens are coming home to roost for Chatwood lately. At the start of the season, his ERA and other metrics looked good despite his ridiculous walk rate. Lefty hitters are really starting to tune him up and a hitter like Travis Jankowski could be a really solid option. His walk/strikeout rate is dead even and if he gets on first base, he’s going to steal second. Eric Hosmer is also appealing from a cash perspective. Just be aware he probably doesn’t have the upside that would win you a tournament. The ISO and wOBA are very pedestrian at .162 and .333 respectively. Even against the Padres, Chatwood can’t possibly be trusted tonight, even though he would be a solid salary saver.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Travis Jankowski, Eric Hosmer(Cash format)

Secondary Options – None

Padres Probable Starter – Clayton Richard, LHP 

4.50 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 17.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .218 average, .288 wOBA, 20.0 K rate, 7.9 fly ball rate and 32.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .254 average, .326 wOBA, 17.0 K rate, 25.2. fly ball rate and 43.8 hard hit rate

Whenever the Cubs face a lefty, I want Kris Bryant. I don’t care where the park is located. I don’t care if the pitcher is a ground baller. Braynt is incredible against lefty pitching with an OPS over 1.200, an ISO over .430 and a wOBA over .490 as well. He’s only $4,00 since he’s just returning from injury and we don’t get him this cheap too often. He will surely fly under the radar due to a lot of factors. My only hesitations are Richard does get a healthy amount of ground balls and third base is totally loaded. I want Jose Ramirez more and I might want Nolan Arenado more, depending on the Seattle pitcher. It’s going to be a tough call since we can only play a max of two of those three hitters. Willson Contreras has the second highest wOBA against lefties at .385 and Javier Baez can be played at all times right now.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras

Secondary Options – Javier Baez

Home Run Pick – Kris Bryant

DFS MLB – Angels at Dodgers

Angels Probable Starter – Felix Pena, RHP 

3.63 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 28.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH -.300 average, .346 wOBA, 16.3 K rate, 27.3 fly ball rate and 42.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH -.225 average, .279 wOBA, 37.7 K rate, 34.5 fly ball rate and 48.3 hard hit rate

Here’s the bad news – the Dodgers haven’t been very good the past few nights. They’ve been fine, but it hasn’t been spectacular.The good news is that means that very few folks will be on Dodgers tonight and this could be the starts that Pena gets beat up. They just saw him a week ago and he should not be this good, given how much hard contact he’s given up. He’s getting pounded by lefties and the Dodgers should throw quite a few at him tonight. Joc Pederson should lead off and that would be followed by Max Muncy and potentially Cody Bellinger. The only small factor that doesn’t ode well for the Dodgers is Pena’s curveball. Nobody rates well against that pitch but I’m not letting that one factor shake me off of this play. Muncy and Pederson are my to favorite plays with their ISO’s over .310 and wOBA’s at .390 or higher. Andrew Toles is a great way to save salary as he’s minimum price again tonight.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy

Secondary Options -Andrew Toles

Dodgers Probable Starter – Walker Buehler, RHP 

3.44 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 25.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .217 average, .272 wOBA, 26.3 K rate, 32.3 fly ball rate and 28.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .219 average, .248 wOBA, 25.0 K rate, 26.0 fly ball rate and 37.7 hard hit rate

I think Buehler is a very talented pitcher and I would normally give him a lot of thought. I can’t go there because he’s going to be on a pitch count. Even if we don’t know it, he’s on a pitch count because that’s they way the Dodgers do business. We’re a couple days from the All-Star break and he’s returning from an injury. There’s about zero chance that the Dodgers won’t handle Buehler with kid gloves. Since I have a healthy amount of respect for him, the only hitter that I’d take form the Angels is Mike Trout. He will likely not be a priority for me this evening.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mike Trout

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – Cody Bellinger

DFS MLB – A’s at Giants

A’s Probable Starter – Edwin Jackson, RHP 

2.45 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 21.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .205 average, .269 wOBA, 19.2 K rate, 51.4 fly ball rate and 22.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .154 average, .198 wOBA, 25.9 K rate, 35.3 fly ball rate and 26.3 hard hit rate

There’s a really solid chance that Jackson can keep this magic going for at least one more start considering where it’s taking place and the offense he’s pitching against. You can make a case for Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford or Andrew McCutchen. Lefties Crawford and Belt are fine but I can’t force them into that lineup even though the wOBA for both is over .350. This just isn’t the park to target hitters unless the matchup is so good, they can’t possibly be ignored. I’m kind of in shock I’m typing this in 2018, but Jackson hasn’t been someone we have wanted to go after in his small sample size of starts.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Andrew McCutchen

Giants Probable Starter – Madison Bumgarner, LHP 

3.09 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 19.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .129 average, .165 wOBA, 27.3 K rate, 28.6 fly ball rate and 18.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .254 average, .318 wOBA, 17.9 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 42.3 hard hit rate

Bumgarner has started seven games since his return from the disabled lis and we’ve only gotten two that have actually looked like a vintage Bumgarner start. Oakland only strikes out a little over 21 percent of the time against lefty pitching on the road, so I’m not sure this is a spot for the ceiling game for MadBum in this spot. It’s too bad that Matt Olson is a lefty because Bumgarner is throwing his slider a ton and Olson destroys that pitch. There’s just no upside with Olson being a lefty on lefty tonight. Mark Canha and Chad Pinder are always the main guys we target when the A’s draw a lefty and they are both fine options tonight. They carry a wOBA of at least .360 each and an ISO of .190(Canha is up at .372). Bumgarner just isn’t the pitcher you attack in cash so it would be a GPP play only.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mark Canha

Secondary Options – Khris Davis, Chad Pinder, Stephen Piscotty

Home Run Pick – Mark Canha

DFS MLB – FanDuel Sample Lineup

P – Wei-Yin Chen 

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C/1B – John Hicks

2B – Max Muncy

3B – Jose Ramirez

SS – Manny Machado 

OF – Danny Valencia, Shin-soo Choo, Brett Gardner

Utility – Nolan Arenado 

With the full knowledge that I will likely chicken out await this lineup for cash games, I actually like this lineup a lot. Chen has been so much better at home that he might be worth the risk involved. Hicks smashes lefty pitching and I’ll bet nobody plays him. We have a healthy piece of the Baltimore and Texas game because that matchup could see some serious fireworks. The leadoff man for the Yankees is never a bad play and Muncy is in another amazing spot tonight. he’s due to come through again. I’m having a very hard time not putting in Ramirez, regardless of how everything else changes.

The Core – Jose Ramirez, Shin-soo Choo, Danny Valencia

Pitching to Consider 

High End – Madison Bumgarner, Carlos Martinez

Mid-Range – Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Kingham

Punts – Wei-Yin Chen, Brad Keller

Stacks to Consider – Baltimore/Texas game stack, Colorado Rockies, Cleveland Indians, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers

Next: Top MLB DFS Plays and Rankings on Draft for Friday July 13

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.