Fantasy Football Preview: Jordy Nelson Could MAKE or BREAK Your Fantasy Season
Fantasy Football Preview: Jordy Nelson
Welcome to another Fantasy Football Preview edition of Make or Break where we dive into the most polarizing players amongst our Fantasy Football draft boards, specifying the case for and against these boom or bust professionals. These fantasy football preview columns will be released every few days to help prepare you for draft season and help gain some perspective on different, edgy players that could make or break your team. All segments of this series are both statistically and theoretically driven with today’s focus on Raiders wide receiver Jordy Nelson.
Things that qualify a player for a Make or Break column include:
- A change in team, surrounding teammates, or coaching.
- An increase in age.
- A rookie campaign.
- An injury concern.
- A sudden change in production.
The idea of this column is to provide you with the tools to make an educated prediction whether or not to invest in the selected player.
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Jordy Nelson
Nelson has been a stellar fantasy wide receiver over the years in a gung-ho Packers offense. Being the favorite target of a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers guarantees a surplus of catchable targets for a receiver. This is especially true for a big body like Jordy, who flashed his ability to win jump ball’s downfield and in the red zone. The Jordy-Rodgers tandem was quite the show to watch. As best-friends and teammates, the two exposed flaws in many elite defenses. After seeing the Packers win the Superbowl in 2011, it was clear that Nelson and Rodgers were inseparable. In 5 seasons from 2011 to 2016, Nelson averaged 79 receptions, 1,220 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Safe to say, a very good fantasy wide receiver. After the injury of Rodgers in 2017 however, we saw the production of Nelson drop significantly. Nelson basically halved those numbers with 53 receptions, 482 yards, and 6 touchdowns. After this performance, without Aaron Rodgers, the Packers cut Nelson. This left the pass catcher to find a new home in Oakland. A change in scenery and a decrease in production lands Nelson on this edition of Make or Break.
Aaron Rodgers wishes his teammate Jordy Nelson well in the future and shows his emotion toward both Nelson and the Packers organization.
The Case FOR Jordy Nelson
The questions around Nelson shouldn’t be whether or not he is talented enough. He has proved many times that he has the skill set and size to perform as a WR1 on any NFL team. This is a preset that one should build in their mind when considering Nelson for their fantasy team. These next factors all determine volume.
Jon Gruden
The Oakland Raiders signed former Superbowl winning head coach Jon Gruden to a 100 million dollar deal over 10 years. This significantly helps Nelson due to the offense Gruden likes to run. While the Raiders decided to rid the offense of Michael Crabtree, they spent the remaining cap on Nelson. The grizzled vet’s route running and Gruden’s perfectionist attitude match and could be the reason why the Raiders decided to pay the older Jordy Nelson instead of Crabtree. He is the more efficient red zone target, with a catch rate 4.2% higher than Crabtree’s over the past three season. Nelson is also an inch taller than Crabtree. This isn’t an extreme advantage but should emphasize the fact the Nelson could potentially be a better option for Carr. Gruden has always been able to support a WR1 and Nelson should have all the opportunity to become that.
Martavis Bryant
While this isn’t exactly a benefit for Jordy, Martavis Bryant’s off field issues could promote more opportunity for Nelson as the raiders passing offense would be forced upon the shoulders of Nelson and Cooper. We’ve seen Derek Carr hold two T20 wide receivers before so why not continue to spread the offense? The talent of Bryant without question is a threat to Nelson, but if he isn’t on the field , that leaves former Cowboys receiver Ryan Switzer in the slot. The rumors around Bryant earning another suspension have been present within the fantasy football community but have yet to unfold into something real.
"Tafur also reports that Bryant “did not fail a drug test or miss a test for that matter.” The report that the Raiders were fearing a suspension was from extremely reliable beat writer Michael Gehlken. Clearly something is afoot, but no one knows what. Tafur does report he caught wind of a similar report “a couple of months ago” that ended up getting killed. There was apparently a “complication” with one of Bryant’s tests that was “cleared up when Bryant visited the NFL offices.” It does not appear that and this are related, however. As always with Bryant, sit tight. Jun 21 – 1:28 PMSteelers – 2018 Player Profile – Rotoworld.com,"
Like Tafur claims above, “sit tight”, because this news could end up benefitting Nelson in the long run.
Hundley to Carr
While many claim the lack of production in the second half of the year was due to Jordy being “washed up” this might not actually be true. This is considering the fact that Nelson was still getting open on his routes with a 1.85 average yards of separation. This means that Nelson may not be at complete fault for his 2017 woes. Hundley was never going to be as good as Rodgers. We should give Jordy some more slack for this one. Derek Carr should promote better quarterback play, therefore giving Nelson more opportunity to work downfield.
Stock Falling
It is currently easier to describe the case against Nelson rather than the case for. This is the reason Nelson’s ADP has dropped significantly over the past month. According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Nelson’s ADP in 12 team standard leagues has dropped from the 5.05 to the 7.02 within a month. This could provide some serious value for diligent fantasy owners. If this drops even further feel free to spend a later pick on Nelson. Talent and Opportunity could launch him to be a baseline WR2 to 3 at minimum. Value and upside are important to snag in later rounds so take advantage of the negativity around Nelson’s name currently.
The Case AGAINST Nelson
Nelson has a handful of negatives surrounding his name. This is the reason we see him falling in drafts. Be skeptical of the WR when drafting and buy him at the right price.
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Age
This one is something fantasy analysts talk about every year. Nelson is currently 33 years old and only getting older. The age of 32 is typically the very end of even the most elite wide receivers incredible days. Not all NFL players can be grinders like Larry Fitzgerald or Frank Gore who will consistently play good football until they hit the grave. I don’t believe Jordy is completely finished but within the next two to three years we will see his capability drop off. This could happen due to injury or simply just lack of gas in the tank.
Amari Cooper
While Amari Cooper had a terrible fantasy season last year. Rumor has it, he was playing through pain almost every game of the season and was hiding it all year. According to Derek Carr Cooper was “out there playing on one foot”. It is not entirely clear why Cooper didn’t just take the rest he needed as the Raiders were not playoff contenders, but he is very talented and should be ready to go for the 2018 season. Cooper has been a breakout candidate every year for the past three years and once again, could show the world why he deserves respect as the WR1 on his team. Cooper could steal some volume away from Nelson and fantasy owners should plan accordingly.
Rodgers to Carr
This isn’t necessarily a knock on Jordy but a pat on the back to quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The quality of targets that Nelson will receive from Carr simply wont be as good as Rodgers. Rodgers on average is a better quarterback in every phase of the game. The drop off could promote a less productive Jordy. He should still be more effective than with Hundley. So while this does temper production, it shouldn’t be considered as a major issue.
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