MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Friday, July 13th All Slates

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MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Friday, July 13th All Slates

Welcome to a Friday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about format and content:

The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
In this Quick Hits version, I’ll suggest players that are typically value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). Naturally, check final pricing before making your lineup decisions, as I am not listing salaries in this edition.
This is not a position-by-position breakdown, but rather, I’m just identifying games where I think there’s value players in potentially favorable fantasy spots.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out-of-the-way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Friday’s slates!

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Friday, July 13th Bargain Pitcher

Brad Keller, KC at CWS

Keller has been nothing if not impressive as a starter after beginning the season in the bullpen, styming hitters from both sides of the plate (.291 wOBA and .075 ISO allowed to right-handed hitters, .275 wOBA and .029 ISO allowed to left-handed hitters). He’s actually been better on the road, as well, generating a 2.10 ERA, .227 BAA and .265 wOBA across 30 frames outside of Kauffman Stadium.

Another thing about Keller is that he simply doesn’t allow the ball to leave the yard. He’s yielded a grand total of one homer all season over 60.2 innings, simply an amazing feat considering the way the ball has behaved this year. What’s more, the White Sox could make for some pretty tantalizing targets Friday, considering they check in with an MLB-high 28.3 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching at home over the last month of play, along with a -3.5 wRAA and MLB-low 22.0 percent hard contact rate versus that handedness over that stretch.

Keller is allowing an anemic 22.6 percent hard contact rate overall on the road (as compared to 40.0 percent in his home park), and boasts a solid 83.3 percent strand rate outside of Kauffman as well. Moreover, Chicago has been particularly bad versus righties at Guaranteed Rate Field over the last two weeks of play, as they sport just a .196 average and no homers during that span. Their projected Friday starting lineup also has a 25.5 percent strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching, furthering Keller’s already strong case.

ALSO CONSIDER: Junior Guerra, MIL at PIT

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MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Friday, July 13th All Slates Quick Hits

The Rangers’ Cole Hamels has generally been a much better pitcher on the road, although he was blasted against the Tigers in his last start and never made it out of the first inning. It’s hard to know which version of the veteran will show up against the Orioles, but one bargain Baltimore bat I’d particularly consider is Mark Trumbo. The slugger owns a .350 average, including three homers, over 21 career plate appearances against Hamels, a .431 CXwOBA against lefties, and a massive .509 wOBA versus the low-90s fastball that Hamels is allowing a .512 wOBA on.

The scoreboard operator in Camden Yards could certainly be kept busy tonight considering that Alex Cobb is serving as Hamel’s opposing number. The right-hander has been a constant DFS target during a miserable first half, and he’s been battered by both handedness of hitter. In terms of particularly favorable options on the Rangers, Shin-soo Choo is especially enticing. Cobb comes in allowing a .385 wOBA to lefty bats, while Choo checks in with a .409 wOBA against righty arms. Additionally, he boasts a .417 average over 12 career plate appearances against Cobb, and a .406 wOBA against the low-90s fastball that Cobb has constantly struggled when throwing this season and that he’s utilized more than half the time. Given Cobb’s weakness to lefty hitters, Joey Gallo also becomes an appealing target (.566 CXwOBA against righties). The Orioles bullpen has been bad against both sides of the plate as well.

Left-handed hitters always make for good tournament plays against Rick Porcello at Fenway Park, so consider Curtis Granderson (.304 lifetime average versus Porcello) and where affordable, Justin Smoak (four career homers against Porcello) as value Blue Jays bats to contemplate.

Like Hamels, kind of hard to know which Domingo German shows up from start to start for the Yankees. The right-hander certainly has plenty of talent, but control and keeping the ball in the yard have both been issues at times. The Indians are a dangerous lineup to start handing out free passes to, so in terms of value bats, I’d give some thought to Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis and Yan Gomes, who all regularly put good wood on the ball off right-handed pitching.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin /

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Friday, July 13th All Slates Quick Hits

On the Yankees side, taking into account Indians starter

Shane Bieber

‘s considerable issues versus left-handed hitters (.422 wOBA, 55.6 percent hard contact rate allowed), I’d give

Aaron Hicks

and

Brett Gardner

an endorsement as value bats where affordable, as well as

Tyler Wade

. The Indians bullpen has also had considerable trouble versus left-handed hitters in the last month at home (AL-high .443 wOBA and 8.57 ERA allowed).

More from FanSided

The Nationals’ Tanner Roark has completely unraveled over his last two starts, allowing 13 earned runs on 20 hits over 11 innings. While he has the talent for a bounce-back, Asdrubal Cabrera, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo and Jose Bautista all are intriguing as value options on the Mets.

The Phillies’ Jake Arrieta has been vulnerable to right-handed hitters on the road (.340 wOBA allowed), so affordable Marlins the likes of Brian Anderson, Starlin Castro and J.T. Realmuto bear considering, also factoring in that the Philly bullpen has allowed a .358 wOBA to righty hitters on the road in the last month. Lefty bats that hit righties well like Justin Bour and J.T. Riddle also deserve attention, as Arrieta has only been slightly better against that handedness outside of his home park.

The Reds’ Matt Harvey has been much better of late, but it’s always good to roll out at least a couple of cost-savings bats against him. Jose Martinez and Marcell Ozuna both have strong track records against Harvey and typically hit righties hard, Paul DeJong is also very good against that handedness, and Matt Carpenter represents a very appealing way to target Harvey from the left side. The Reds bullpen has also been bad against both sides of the plate on the road in the last month.

The Mariners’ Christian Bergman could be the proverbial sacrificial lamb at Coors tonight, as he’ll make a spot start after struggling at Triple-A Tacoma for most of this season. Bergman was very good while shutting the Rangers out for seven innings in his only other start at the big-league level this season, but he’s been beat up by both handedness in his career (.373 wOBA allowed to righty bats, .344 wOBA allowed to lefty hats). The Mariners bullpen also put in some work Thursday night after James Paxton exited in the first inning, so the Rockies will undoubtedly be a popular stack. In terms of bargain bats, there isn’t much that’s cheap, but Gerardo Parra and Carlos Gonzalez represent two appealing left-handed options, while Ian Desmond could certainly be a viable as a right-handed bat.

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