MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Friday July 13
Welcome to the Friday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
The Thursday MLB DFS slate really is pretty easy to break down when you look back on it – did you play Anthony Rendon and use Jameson Taillon as your SP2? If so, you probably had a pretty good night as a 50% plus owned Taillon in GPP’s on FantasyDraft when paired with a double dong night from Anthony Rendon who was roughly 20% owned helped to set the cash line. I went to the Mets game last night and having 100% Steven Matz as my SP2, I mentioned to my buddy before the game the ONE guy in this Nationals line-up I want Matz to pitch around is Rendon – literally just don’t pitch to him – walk him and go lefty-lefty against a cold Bryce Harper – and that game and slate look completely different. Oh well – another night of MLB DFS and Mets fan frustration – rinse and repeat.
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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Starting Pitching Overview:
At first glance on this slate, my reaction was very – indifferent shall we say – to the pitching on this slate as I was not really overwhelmed by any options. Now we have a game in Coors Field, the Red Sox against a left-hander in Fenway and the Astros with a near 5.5 run total against Mike Fiers so I wonder if people will prioritize offense on this slate and opt to skip over the pitching.
That leads me to Noah Syndergaard ($21.6K) as the second highest priced arm on the slate, coming off the D.L. and facing the Nationals in Citi Field. One of the reasons this slate at first blush seems underwhelming is we lack the big K arms at the top with Madison Bumgarner and his 19% K rate coming in at the top of the pricing tier but that’s why I am finding myself with interest in Thor and his 29% K rate this season. Yes, he is coming off the D.L. so there is “risk” in him being rusty, not throwing his usual workload etc. etc. but I feel like that is all priced into Syndergaard here at $21.6K tonight and it is hard to see another pitcher on this slate with the raw strikeout ability that he has.
The one mid-tier arm that has similar strikeout appeal is Carlos Martinez ($16.2K) who has regained his ace-like form in recent starts, sporting a 23.4% K rate and 13% swinging strike rate over his last three starts. The biggest improvement to me though is really in his control, as C-Mart has only walked 3 total batters in those 3 starts, a 3.9% BB rate which is a massive improvement over the 12% season long rate that dogged Martinez earlier this season.
From a Vegas perspective, both of these arms are solid home favorites (-140 and -160 for Thor and Martinez respectively) while their opponents have two of the lowest run projections on the slate with the Reds and Nationals expected to score a run lower than their season average per Vegas.
So what does that all really mean? By locking in Martinez and Thor you are building around players with high K ability for upside and the Vegas data that would seemingly make them case game building blocks AND you would still have $7.8K per batter on FantasyDraft to build around some solid hitting options. I could be wrong, but I feel like this is a day where people see the lack of great pitching and opt to go all-in on hitting and take chances on less than ideal pitchers (yeah looking at you James Shields), but the more I dig through the slate the more I actually think there are some great arms at relatively value price points when you consider their pedigree and upside.
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots:
With a game in Coors Field today my guess is people will load up on the Mariners against Anthony Senzatela, a pitcher they just tagged for 6 runs in 6 innings in Seattle and now they get the Coors Field boost. The Rockies meanwhile will face-off with Christian Bergman, a pitcher who has a near 5 ERA and 1.5 WHIP in AAA this season so to say the spot is hitter friendly is an understatement and I expect this game stack to be very popular today (another reason why I think people will pay down for pitching). The one play from this game I cannot ignore on FantasyDraft is Chris Hermann ($5.7K) who would give you amazingly cheap exposure to Coors AND he has IF/OF eligibility making him the perfect puzzle piece due to his flexibility on an already flexible DFS site.
The other interesting spot here is the Red Sox who get a left-hander in Fenway, a popular spot to attack but as I mentioned yesterday, outside of Mookie Betts, JD Martinez and Steve Pearce, this team struggles against lefties and Ryan Borucki has actually pitched quite well so far this year. In three starts, two against the Yankees and Astros mind you, Borucki has pitched 20 innings, striking out 16 and giving up only 1-2 ER per game while limiting right-handed batters to a .068 ISO. Outside of a grand slam from Mookie Betts last night, the rest of this offense was quiet and Steve Pearce actually left that game with a shin contusion which could mean this Red Sox stack becomes even less appealing (and I could argue using Borucki as a tournament SP2). If Pearce plays, at $7.2K on FantasyDraft, he will be a solid one-off cash game play with tournament upside but if he is out, I likely will fade this Red Sox offense entirely.
The Dodgers, yes the Dodgers, get to face another RHP this evening but they are out of San Diego and back in their home park now which should be a nice boost for them this evening. The fact that they face Felix Pena, a pitcher who they just saw and limited them to 2 ER with 8 K’s, may lead game log watchers to side more with Pena with the Dodgers bats – but not me. I will give you my usual song and dance here – the Dodgers line-up is freakin’ loaded with hitters that smash RHP – with four hitters having over a .230 ISO mark this season (Joc, Muncy, Bellinger, Grandal) – this is my favorite stack on the board tonight as it is most times the Dodgers face a RHP, and with Coors and other bigger totals (Boston/Houston etc), my hope is the Dodgers go under-owned again as the late night hammer.
If you are looking for some value, the Orioles RHB against Cole Hamels could be a great way to afford top end arms AND a Dodgers stack. Let’s be nice – the Orioles have stunk this year and Manny Machado is going to be out the door any minute now – but they are facing a pitcher in Hamels that is giving up a .233 ISO and 46.6% HC rate to RHB this season. I do not care how bad they have been, this is a right-handed heavy line-up with pop that are almost all priced down. Danny Valencia ($6.4K) has a .250 ISO against LHP this season with a 35.5% HC rate and is one of my favorite salary saver plays on the board. Manny Machado ($9.7K) is the obvious top play here IF you are spending up and there is some interesting narrative here with the trade rumors really heating up around him – this is the last home series before the All-Star Break and the Orioles do not return home again until July 23rd, which means there is a very real chance this could be the last home series for Machado in an Orioles uniform. A bad lefty, 85 degrees, wind blowing out to LF – yeah Machado is going yard today.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
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SP: Noah Syndergaard ($21.6K)
SP: Carlos Martinez ($16.2K)
IF: Manny Machado ($9.7K)
IF: Danny Valencia ($6.4K)
IF: Yasmani Grandal ($8.5K)
OF: Max Muncy ($9.8K)
OF: Joc Pederson ($8.1K)
OF: Chris Herrmann ($5.7K)
UTIL: Cody Bellinger ($8.4K)
UTIL: Mikie Mahtook ($5.6K)
Slate Overview: At first glance I was not really enthused by this slate but I am starting to come around on it. I think if you can move past the chalk Coors or Red Sox and the dig deeper, there are some really nice offenses to target that allow you to target upside and still pay up for elite arms, which is a route I am just not sure people will go today. Enjoy the slate all, let’s keep it rolling with a nice weekend before the All-Star Break!
Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!