This Week in Stats: France and Croatia promise a tight World Cup final
As France and Croatia prepare for the World Cup final on Sunday, July 15, we take a look at their stats from the competition to see what we can expect.
And so after 62 mostly thrilling matches, the final of the World Cup is upon us. France will face Croatia in Moscow on Sunday, and Didier Deschamps’ team will be red hot favorites. The bookmakers give them a 50 percent chance of winning the match in 90 minutes, while Croatia’s chances are rated as one in five.
But are those odds fair, and what can we expect from the final?
History doesn’t promise goals
In the early days of the World Cup, the finals were entertaining encounters. Both teams found the net in each of the first 13 finals (including the final group stage match in 1950; don’t ask). But then when love had the world in motion in 1990, something changed.
Only one of the last seven finals has seen both teams celebrate a goal. That was the 2006 final when Italy and France drew 1-1 and had to be separated by penalties. Zinedine Zidane and Marco Materazzi had to be separated too, but that’s a different story.
Goals have been thin on the ground in recent times, too. France beat Brazil 3-0 on home turf in 1998, but otherwise the finals in the last three decades have featured two goals at most. The last two championship bouts have both gone to extra-time after a 0-0 stalemate. It would be wise not to make any plans immediately following normal time on Sunday.
When Croatia play, expect two goals
Croatia became the fourth team to play three periods of extra-time in a single World Cup when their tie with England went beyond normal time. None of the other three (Belgium 1986, England 1990, Argentina 2014) have lifted the trophy; whether that’s coincidence or a result of fatigue is up for debate.
Another interesting coincidence is that all three Croatian knockout games featured exactly two goals in normal time, as did their group stage win over Nigeria. And their wins over Argentina and Iceland had a pair of goals up until injury time.
France have been far more erratic on this front. A 0-0 with Denmark, the only bore draw of the tournament, which featured the joint-fewest expected goals as well, was followed by a seven-goal thriller with Argentina.
However, everything points toward this being a low-scoring affair. Both teams will use a 4-2-3-1 formation, so it’s likely they’ll cancel each other out for long stretches of the match.
What do the stats say?
The two teams have similar shot difference figures, whether looking at total, on target, clear-cut chances or expected goals, but they’ve arrived there via contrasting routes.
Exhibit A: Total shots. Croatia have had 26 shots more than France, but they have conceded 27 more to their opponents too. Zlatko Dalic’s side have generated 2.2 expected goals more than Les Bleus, at the cost of conceding 3.0 more.
Combine the two figures, though, and we see why France may have an edge on Sunday. They have a one percent advantage over Croatia when it comes to shot quality at both ends of the pitch. When an average shot has a 10 percent chance of being scored, a one percent improvement is worth far more then it initially seems.
Next: The best player on every team at the World Cup
Who’s going to score the goals?
Olivier Giroud is having a strange World Cup. The Chelsea striker has taken 13 shots, but hasn’t tested an opposition goalkeeper once. According to Opta, since tournament records began in 1966 no player has had more shots in a single edition without getting one on target.
On average, around a third of shots are put on target, so in a small sample to register zero from 13 probably isn’t that weird. Could he break his tournament duck on Sunday and win the World Cup for France in the process?
Anything’s possible, but his chances have been of very low quality. According to the website Twelve, Giroud’s shots have collectively been worth just 0.61 expected goals. The French forward might be due a shot on target, but the stats suggest he isn’t due a goal just yet.
As for Croatia, keep an eye on Ivan Perisic. The Inter Milan man scored the vital equalizer against England, and netted a late winner against Iceland too.
Perisic has had 20 shots in Russia; only Neymar, Philippe Coutinho and Cristiano Ronaldo have had more. The quality of those shots has also been good. Only Neymar and (surprisingly) Aleksandr Mitrovic can boast more shots in the box than Perisic’s 13. If anyone scores for the Croats, it may well be their number 4.
However, given France have kept four clean sheets in six games, and only conceded a penalty in one of the other two, it seems likely they’ll win this match to nil. Sorry, Croatia.