What will the Atlanta Hawks do with Dennis Schroder?

After drafting Trae Young and trading for Jeramy Lin, Dennis Schroder’s days in Atlanta are numbered. Here’s why (and where) they’ll likely move him.

It was the eve of the 2016-17 season. The NBA had just concluded a summer in which teams collectively handed out $3.6 billion in new contracts. While more than a few of those signings were derided the moment they happened, not even the most forward-thinking observers realized the regret that would eventually ensue. If there was an NBA version of the Christian Bale character in The Big Short, it was apparent that no one was listening to him.

Among the contracts handed out that reasonable minds seemed to think were a worthy gamble was the extension the Atlanta Hawks gave to Dennis Schroder. Signed the day before the first game of the year — Schroder’s last on his rookie deal — the pact for an additional four years and $70 million wouldn’t kick in until the beginning of 2017-18 season. The Hawks were making a bet that whatever Schroder was about to do in his age-23 season would only make his price go up from the $17.5 million in annual dollars they agreed to pay him through 2020-21.

As was the case with almost all of the deals inked that summer, the house won. Just two years later, the remaining three years and $52.5 million ($46.5 guaranteed) on his contract sit as one of the more immovable albatrosses on the NBA landscape. While there had been some not-so-quiet rumblings of the Hawks’ desire to unload Schroder following his public comments about wanting to be traded to the Bucks or Pacers, the Hawks recent acquisition of Jeremy Lin as a veteran point guard to mentor Trae Young leaves no doubt about how they see their former prized possession fitting in from here on out.

It’s a rather stunning fall from grace for a point guard who came in with as much promise as any young playmaker in the league just five years ago. Drafted 17th overall in 2013 (two spots after Giannis Antetokounmpo), Schroder and the Greek Freak shared the “We don’t know what the hell this guy is but we can’t wait to find out!” label for that rookie class.

The following season, he was the sixth man for a Hawks squad that won 60 games. The team was invariably worse when he was on the court during his sophomore campaign, but you could begin to see the signs of a promising player — one who was a blur in transition and could seemingly get to the rim at will.

The 2015-16 season is when Schroder really took off. He flipped the on/off stats on their head, to the point that Cleaning the Glass had that year’s Hawks as a 59-win team with Schroder on the court and a 42-win team when he was off. It surprised no one when Atlanta dealt incumbent starter Jeff Teague that summer for the draft rights to Taurean Prince and handed over the keys to the offense to Schroder, along with his brand new contract.

On paper, it hasn’t been a complete disaster. He’s one of seven players to average at least 17 points and six assists per game in each of the last two years, the other six being James Harden, Steph Curry, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook and John Wall. Not terrible company. He’s also still capable of having a night like this:

Digging deeper in any direction though reveals a muddy layer of ugliness not far below the surface. For starters, despite clearly being Atlanta’s most talented player, they were ostensibly a better team with him off the court last season than with him on it.

Those numbers don’t seem to be a misnomer, as Schroder was possibly the least efficient high usage player in the league in 2017-18. Of the 12 players who saw over 30 minutes a night and had a usage rate of at least 30, Schroder’s 51.5 true shooting percentage was the lowest of the dozen. This was in large part due to the area of his game that hasn’t progressed as anticipated: the deep ball. There were 135 players who appeared in at least 20 games and attempted at least 3.5 3-pointers per night last season. Schroder’s 29 percent conversion rate was dead last in that group.

On defense, Schroder routinely gets hung up on screens and often seems disinterested in staying in front of his man. Opponents had a 2.4 percent increase in their effective field goal percentage when he was in the game last season, which was in the 16th percentile league-wide.

It’s not hard to see why the Hawks have thus far been unable to find a home for Schroder despite his age (still just 24) and traditional counting stats. No team is going to willingly pay a sixth of the salary cap for a change of pace backup, especially in a climate where a guy like Isaiah Thomas just signed for the veteran’s minimum despite being only one season removed from a fifth place MVP finish.

Looking around the league, it’s tough to see a fit that makes perfect sense.

The Milwaukee Bucks now employ Schroder’s ex-head coach in Mike Budenholzer, along with a point guard in Eric Bledsoe who will be a free agent next summer. Despite their somewhat rocky relationship at times, it’s easy to see Coach Bud and the Bucks valuing some long term security at an important position. That said, Antetokounmpo is still something of a non-shooter, and having him and Schroder on the court at the same time could lead to spacing issues. Milwaukee would also almost certainly demand a sweetener from the Hawks to make the swap, which Atlanta would likely be hesitant to include.

Reggie Jackson has been oft injured in Detroit and they might be in the mood to continue shaking things up in the wake of the Blake Griffin trade. Jackson also has a year less on his deal than Schroder, which would certainly be appealing to Atlanta. The issue there is that the offense figures to run through Griffin, and Schroder has little value without the ball in his hands.

The only two teams in the league with a clear need for a starting point guard are the Phoenix Suns and Orlando Magic, and they remain Schroder’s most likely destinations. Orlando would certainly like to rid itself of the recently acquired Timofey Mozgov contract, and Magic President Jeff Weltman has a well-documented obsession with length and athleticism. Despite Schroder being only 6-foot-1, he has a 6-foot-8 wingspan and is as fast as any player in the league. Mo Bamba’s presence would also help offset his lack of shooting.

The Suns could engineer a similar swap, sending either Tyson Chandler’s expiring contract or the remaining two years and $30 million left on Brandon Knight’s pact back to Atlanta. This would depend on just how high Phoenix is on rookie point guard Elie Okobo, who early reports are bullish on.

In either case, any deal would depend on which way the draft compensation would be heading. The Hawks will certainly ask for some in return. Despite his flaws, the feat Schroder just accomplished- – averaging 19 and 6 in an age-24 or younger season — has only been done 62 times in NBA history according to BasketballReference.com. Of the players who pulled it off, every one has made at least one All-Star Game with the exception of Damon Stoudemire and Larry Drew.

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The Suns and Magic, on the other hand, would be wise to balk, knowing full well now that the Hawks will be hard-pressed to go into the season with a player they’ve made abundantly clear has no place in their future plans.

Expect the stalemate to end one way or another before training camp. The real question is whether a change of scenery can help Schroder finally fulfill the promise that got him this contract to begin with. Here’s betting it can’t hurt.