Chicago Bulls taking no-risk flier on Jabari Parker
The Chicago Bulls are gambling on Jabari Parker returning to his pre-ACL-tear form, but there’s no risk if he doesn’t.
Chicago native Jabari Parker is coming back home.
The Bulls came to terms with Parker on a two-year, $40 million contract Saturday, according to ESPN.com’s Adrian Wojnarowski, shortly after the Milwaukee Bucks rescinded his qualifying offer. The second year of the deal is a team option, Wojnarowski reported, “which lowers the risk on Chicago based upon Parker’s two ACL injuries and gives both sides flexibility to turn a short-term relationship into a long-term deal should Parker stay healthy and productive next season.”
By virtue of giving Parker only one guaranteed season, the Bulls effectively mitigated the downside of this deal. If he struggles to fit alongside Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr., the Bulls can cut bait on him next summer without compromising their long-term financial flexibility. In the meantime, they’ll get to see whether the 2014 No. 2 overall pick can recapture the form he displayed in 2016-17 prior to going down with his second ACL tear.
The Bulls plan to play Parker “largely as a small forward,” according to Wojnarowski, which doesn’t seem optimal on the surface. Citing data from Cleaning the Glass, Bleacher Report’s Dan Favale pointed out why the Parker-at-the-3 plan may go up in smoke for Chicago.
https://twitter.com/danfavale/status/1017899754007736320
Even before his ACL tears, Parker’s lateral quickness inhibited him as an on-ball defender, but he was objectively awful on that end of the floor last season. He ranked 79th out of 84 power forwards in ESPN.com’s real defensive plus-minus, behind such luminaries as Carmelo Anthony (!) and Dragan Bender. Forcing him to defend 3s is all but certain to end poorly for the Bulls, especially with a fellow defensive sieve in Zach LaVine alongside him at the 2.
The question for Chicago is whether Parker’s offensive upside can outweigh the damage he causes on defense.
Before going down with his second ACL tear, Parker was in the midst of a career year in 2016-17, having averaged 20.1 points on 49.0 percent shooting to go with 6.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.0 steals in 33.9 minutes a night. After shooting a combined 13-of-51 from 3-point range across his first two seasons (25.5 percent), Parker went 65-of-178 from deep as a junior (36.5 percent), raising hope about his long-term potential alongside Milwaukee star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Though Parker’s individual metrics were promising—he had an above-average 19.1 player efficiency rating in 2016-17—his impact on Milwaukee’s chances of winning was less clear.
This past season, the Bucks scored 2.1 fewer points per 100 possessions with Parker on the court than when he was on the bench, and they were 3.2 points per 100 possessions stingier defensively. The prior year, their offense wasn’t much worse off with him on the floor, but they allowed 5.2 fewer points per 100 possessions whenever he wasn’t playing.
On-off splits aren’t the be-all, end-all, as there’s a lot of noise to sort through. In 2016-17, he played only six minutes alongside Khris Middleton, who missed much of that season with a hamstring injury he suffered during preseason workouts. However, he had a positive net rating alongside only two Bucks that season—Jason Terry and Greg Monroe—while posting a minus-1.7 next to Antetokounmpo.
Similar to LaVine, it’s tough to put too much stock into Parker’s middling production from last season, as the Bucks intentionally eased him back into action. The Bulls likewise should avoid the temptation to overburden Parker in the early going, as his long-term health is far more important to them than a few additional meaningless regular-season wins.
Even in a depleted Eastern Conference, the Bulls aren’t likely to push for a playoff spot in 2018-19. Instead, this should be a year of experimentation for them.
Though they plan to utilize Parker primarily as a small forward, they should toy around with him playing the 4 (or perhaps even some small-ball 5?) as well. Not only must they discover whether the Parker-Markannen-Carter trio is a viable long-term fit, but they also need to see how Parker and Markkanen co-exist in small-ball lineups. Figuring out which teammates Parker works best alongside is of the utmost importance if Chicago plans to extend its partnership with him for more than a year.
The second-year team option swings this deal from a questionable signing for Chicago to a no-brainer. Had the Bucks not renounced Parker, the Bulls couldn’t have structured his contract this way, as offer sheets for restricted free agents must contain two years (not including options). As salary-cap expert Albert Nahmad explained on Twitter, the Bulls could have made the second year of an offer sheet nonguaranteed, but it would have limited their long-term options with regard to retaining Parker.
If Parker thrives in 2018-19 and avoids further injuries, the Bulls can pick up his team option and attempt to re-sign him in 2020, when he’ll be only 25 years old. Otherwise, they can cut him loose next summer without having done any long-term damage to their financial outlook. As K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune noted Saturday, that latter point was paramount to the Bulls.
Could the Bulls have made better use of their cap space, as ESPN.com’s Kevin Pelton argued Saturday? Perhaps. Taking on $20-plus million in dead salary—Carmelo Anthony?—in exchange for future draft considerations is undeniably appealing for a rebuilding team like Chicago. It isn’t as though the Bulls are overpaying a veteran on a multiyear deal, though. They’re taking a low-risk, high-upside gamble on a former No. 2 overall pick, with zero downside beyond next year if it doesn’t work out.
If the Bulls felt as though Parker had a higher chance of returning star-level value than whichever picks they could acquire in a salary dump, their choice was clear. It’s now on head coach Fred Hoiberg to figure out how to best maximize Parker in 2018-19 to see whether he’s a long-term piece of the puzzle in Chicago.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Basketball Insiders.