DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Saturday, July 14

Welcome into the Saturday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We’re going to focus on the six game evening slate tonight so let’s jump in!

It’s always the best feeling when you find that DFS MLB lineup and you’re feeling really strong about it. You did the research, everything came together nicely and you’re ready to watch your score climb the leaderboard. Then the 8pm games start and the sleeper pitcher you got excited about playing at sub-10 percent ownership goes and just gets wiped off the face of the mound. We’re going to dive in to tonight’s six game slate, but the tweet I sent during the slate last night sums it all up.

As bad as Eovaldi was, the rest of the lineup didn’t do that poorly, carried by a 30+ game from Bauers. It just doesn’t matter when your pitcher is that bad.

DFS MLB – Angels at Dodgers

Angels Probable Starter – Andrew Heaney, LHP 

3.84 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 24.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .225 average, .229 wOBA, 22.9 K rate, 19.0 fly ball rate and 16.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .228 average, .315 wOBA, 24.4 K rate, 41.0 fly ball rate and 39.9 hard hit rate

If you hated last night’s pitching slate, you’re really going to dislike this one. The options are slim from a safety standpoint and Heaney is actually one of the more expensive options. I kind of doubt that I’m going there but it’s an interesting case if you’re feeling risky. The Dodgers have five starters with an ISO of more than .200 against lefties. The catch is two of those hitters are lefties in Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy. I don’t want to play lefties against Heaney because there are no fly ball or hard hits going on from that side of the plate.

The righties are where you want to head but they’ve been so cold lately, I could see Heaney having a solid game here. He’s hit double-digit strikeouts in his past two starts. I don’t think he’s going keep the Dodgers off the board but there’s enough strikeout upside to make him worth a shot in tournaments. If you’re playing Dodgers hitters, you want Kike Hernandez or Matt Kemp more than Chris Taylor and Justin Turner for the power upside.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Kike Hernandez, Matt Kemp

Secondary Options – Chris Taylor, Justin Turner

Dodgers Probable Starter – Alex Wood, LHP 

3.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 21.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .268 average, .260 wOBA, 24.7 K rate, 22.5 fly ball rate and 27.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .242 average, .299 wOBA, 20.5 K rate, 34.7 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard hit rate

I’ll be happy to roster Mike Trout if he fits reasonably in roster construction tonight. Sure, that sounds like a sentence I could type any day of the week but Trout has a 1.106 OPS, .306 ISO and a .454 wOBA against lefties this year. Wood throws a lot of off speed and breaking balls, with his fastball being thrown barely 44 percent of the time. Not only does Trout rate well against the curve, he ranks in the top five against fastballs and changeups. Those two pitches make up over 70 percent of the pitch mix for Wood. Here’s the kicker – Trout is all the way down at $4,600 because we though Clayton Kershaw was going to start.

Past that, I’m not sure there’s more than two other hitters I want from the Angels. Justin Upton has been putrid against lefties this year, with a 32.9 strikeout rate and an 0.86 ISO and a .264 wOBA. No thank you. Andrelton Simmons is a fine cash play almost every night because he just makes contact at such a high rate and Jefry Marte is a solid minimum price punt with a .255 ISO.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mike Trout

Secondary Options – Andrelton Simmons, Jefry Marte

Home Run Pick – Jefry Marte

DFS MLB – Yankees at Indians

Yankees Probable Starter – CC Sabathia, LHP 

3.34 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 18.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .185 average, .311 wOBA, 22.8 K rate, 31.9 fly ball rate and 19.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .267 average, .321 wOBA, 17.4 K rate, 36.8 fly ball rate and 30.4 hard hit rate

The way the Indians offense has been clicking lately, it could be a huge problem if you don’t have some type of piece tonight. The most obvious play that jumps out is Francisco Lindor. He’s hit Sabathia well in the past but hasn’t yet hit a home run. That could very easily change tonight as Lindor crushes lefties to the tune of a 1.041 OPS, .441 wOBA and a .219 ISO. Sabathia has been throwing his slider around 32 percent of the time and Lindor is the third best slider hitter in baseball. The funny part of Lindor’s numbers against lefty pitching is that he’s actually second on the Indians. Catcher Yan Gomes has a higher OPS, ISO and wOBA although he doesn’t rate near as well via the pitch data. It’s not like Jose Ramirez is a bad play by any stretch but I don’t feel like he’ll be a priority for me given some of the other hitting options. We’ll keep our eyes peeled for some value at the bottom of the Indians lineup because there’s a lot of offensive pieces that we’re going to want tonight.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Francisco Lindor, Yan Gomes

Secondary Options – Jose Ramirez, value at the bottom of the lineup

Indians Probable Starter – Mike Clevinger, RHP 

3.34 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 23.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .237 average, .306 wOBA, 20.1 K rate, 36.0 fly ball rate and 35.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .244 average, .287 wOBA, 26.1 K rate, 38.2 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard hit rate

You have to be pretty dominant to be in consideration against this Yankee lineup and Clevinger isn’t that. His points per game look pretty solid but they are driven by starts against the White Sox and Royals. Of the 18 games Clevinger has started, only six have been above 40 FanDuel points. Three have come against the White Sox, one against Kansas City, one against the Orioles(who are awful) and then the outlier is a start in Yankee Stadium. I’m not seeing a reason to risk Clevinger tonight but he’s a solid real life pitcher. Unless I’m stacking, I won’t be that heavy on them tonight. If I had to guess, I would think they’ll be lower owned than normal on a small slate but I’m not sure where to go with them. Aaron Judge rates well against the fastball and crushes slider which are the main portion of the pitch mix. My issue with paying up for him is leaving other hitters off while dealing with his poor splits on the road that he’s had his whole career. Aaron Hicks is kind of intriguing because he’s also good against the slider/fastball combo. This is a stack it or forget spot to me.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Aaron Judge

Secondary Options – Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton

Home Run Pick – Francisco Lindor

DFS MLB – Rangers at Orioles

Rangers Probable Starter – Martin Perez, LHP 

9.67 ERA, 2.37 WHIP and 10.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .318 average, .360 wOBA, 12.5 K rate, 22.2 fly ball rate and 31.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH -.410 average, .503 wOBA, 10.0 K rate, 37.0 fly ball rate and 50.7 hard hit rate

Who will be the worst play of the slate tonight, Martin Perez or the Baltimore offense? You look at the metrics in under 25 innings for Perez and you want to hammer righty Orioles into the lineup. It’s still incredibly hard to trust them because this offense is just putrid. The specter of a Manny Machado trade is hanging over this team and they should just get it over with after the All-Star Game. Perez pounds fastballs in there and he’s giving up a disgustingly high 3.63 HR/9 to right-handed hitters.  I’ll go right back to the well with Danny Valencia because he will home run at least once if I don’t. That’s how things have gone all season and I wouldn’t expect any different tonight. My only other options would be Mark Trumbo and Manny Machado. Trumbo is the best hitter against the fastball on the team and Manny Machado is playing for his new home. I’m not going to blame you if you full on stack but I don’t have the trust in Baltimore to go that route.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado

Secondary Options – Danny Valencia

Orioles Probable Starter – Yefry Ramirez, RHP 

3.93 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 21.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .290 average, .378 wOBA, 21.6 K rate, 38.1 fly ball rate and 34.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .205 average, .252 wOBA, 22.0 K rate, 40.0 fly ball rate and 23.3 hard hit rate

This could be a very bad spot for Ramirez tonight. Not only has he Benn worse against lefty hitters, but he throws his change-up at a crazy high clip. The Rangers have three lefties that rate very well against the change in Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara and Shin-soo Choo. With Choo being the chalk last night and doing nothing, plenty of people will be burned and won’t go back there again. Gallo is surprisingly good against a certain pitch but is still no different from any other day: a GPP option. Robinson Chirinos is likely the player that nobody looks at from this Texas team and he’s a really solid play because the strikeout rate doesn’t exactly scare you. That’s the biggest issue with Chirinos and you could get him at such a low ownership. This is another spot where plenty of folks just won’t go back to and gravitate elsewhere. If this game shoots out, there’s a lot of fantasy goodness to be had.

Rangers Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara, Shin-soo Choo

Secondary Options – Robinson Chirinos

Home Run Pick – Mark Trumbo

DFS MLB – Mariners at Rockies

Mariners Probable Starter – Wade LeBlanc, LHP 

3.39 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 18.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .277 average, .331 wOBA, 15.1 K rate, 46.4 fly ball rate and 28.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .233 average, .285 wOBA, 19.3 K rate, 40.9 fly ball rate and 30.3 hard hit rate

A fly baller who pitches lefty is in Coors tonight so we can all guess where the ownership is heading in cash and it’s Nolan Arenado. The man has made a career of destroying lefty pitching and it’s even more impressive at home. Just for this season, Arenado carries a 1.305 OPS, .398 ISO and a .532 wOBA against lefties. It’s just mind-boggling. I’m likely to be too afraid to fade him in cash but my second Colorado hitter might actually be Charlie Blackmon. LeBlanc has a career mark of 1.53 HR/9 to lefties but a 1.25 HR/9 to the righties. Blackmon will be far less popular in cash but might be on equal footing as a good play tonight. Trevor Story and Ian Desmond will be perfectly good options as well because they crush lefty pitching with an ISO over .270 for both of them. I’m not sure I’ll go full-bore with the Rockies but I feel like you need at least two this evening. At the same time, it seems feasible to fit for Rockies in and that could be the way most people go in cash.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Options – Ian Desmond, DJ LeMahieu

Rockies Probable Starter – Jon Gray, RHP 

5.77 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 28.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .280 average, .354 wOBA, 30.4 K rate, 32.1 fly ball rate and 38.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .287 average, .328 wOBA, 27.3 K rate, 23.4 fly ball rate and 29.9 hard hit rate

The strikeout rate is so appealing but the problem is Gray has been giving up gobs of runs all season long. He’s had 17 starts this season and has given up more than three earned runs in 10 of those contests. That is a terrible ratio and I’m not sure a matchup in Coors with a team that has the sixth lowest strikeout rate in baseball is what will get him back on track. Since he has the strikeout upside, I would just stay with the best hitters on the Mariners. Nelson Cruz will likely not play so you’re looking at guys like Mitch Haniger, Dee Gordon and Jean Segura. I wouldn’t blame you for using any top them because you don’t know what you’ll get from Gray tonight. I think at first glance I like the Rockies side of this game just a little bit more.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mitch Haniger, Dee Gordon, Jean Segura

Secondary Options -Ryon Healey

Home Run Pick – Charlie Blackmon

DFS MLB – A’s at Giants

A’s Probable Starter – Brett Anderson, LHP 

5.75 ERA, 1.77 WHIP and 11.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .300 average, .319 wOBA, 4.4 K rate, 15.8 fly ball rate and 31.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .339 average, .407 wOBA, 14.3 K rate, 30.9 fly ball rate and 34.6 hard hit rate

If you like playing tournaments, this might be the game of the slate. Since it’s in San Francisco, most people just pretend the game doesn’t exist. I’m usually on that train of thought most nights but tonight is different because there are matchups that can really be exploited. Without looking, take a guess at who leads the Giants in OPS, ISO and wOBA. If you guessed right, I’m kind of guessing you cheated and Googled it before you’re going to read the rest of this sentence and know the answer is Nick Hundley. He’s minimum price on FanDuel and I’m very hopeful that he plays tonight. Pairing him with the right pitcher could open up worlds of possibilities and I want all the money I can have to load up on bats. If you wanted to load up on some righties like Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey and Mac Williamson in a game stack, you could do it. They all hit lefties pretty well and Anderson is getting crushed by righties in his limited action this year. A solid GPP tactic could be to load up on Coors and take the cheap bats in San Francisco.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nick Hundley, Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Options – Buster Posey, Mac Williamson

Giants Probable Starter – Jeff Samardzija, RHP 

6.42 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and 15.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .304 average, .402 wOBA, 17.3 K rate, 56.6 fly ball rate and 30.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .242 average, .308 wOBA, 13.9 K rate, 37.7 fly ball rate and 30.0 hard hit rate

The crafty righty for the Giants has had a pretty poor season, fighting through injuries for the majority of it. This is only going to be his 10th start of the campaign and he’s gotten his lunch eaten by lefty hitters so far. The wOBA given up is crazy high and I’m interested in two lefties from the A’s tonight. Matt Olson is a boom or bust guy that seems a little likelier to boom tonight since he gets to see a slider about 20 percent of the time from Samardzija. Olson is one of the better slider hitters in the majors and has a .252 ISO. If the park was a better factor, Olson would be more expensive and way more popular. I’ll be pretty happy to lean on him at just $3,100. Dustin Fowler is a solid salary saver in the outfield. He’s nothing special with his ISO or wOBA but he’s on the right side of the split and can steal bases. It’s also easy to live with some risk at $2,200. I would be interested in Jed Lowrie but it appears as if a minor leg injury will keep him out of the lineup until next week. Righties are off the board for me due to lack of upside from the metrics.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Olson

Secondary Options – Dustin Fowler

Home Run Pick – Nick Hundley

DFS MLB – Cubs at Padres

Cubs Probable Starter – Kyle Hendricks, RHP 

3.93 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 18.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .211 average, .307 wOBA, 20.6 K rate, 38.9 fly ball rate and 31.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .261 average, .303 wOBA, 16.6 K rate, 25.8 fly ball rate and 31.2 hard hit rate

I don’t think this can go much worse than Nathan Eovaldi last night, but I think I might be all in on Hendricks and I suspect he’ll be the chalk in cash games. Here’s the thing that can be tough to quantify for fantasy sports – did the athlete make a change that changed his performance and if he did, what change was it? Hendricks has been mediocre this year but was awesome against the Giants in his last start. If that was due to fixed mechanics, we might be in business tonight. This is what Hendricks had to say to NBC Sports Chicago before his last start –

"“It’s definitely mechanical,” said Hendricks, one of the more cerebral players in baseball. “My stuff, especially my fastball command overall, hasn’t been good and that’s really where everything stems for me. My changeup works off that and my curveball works off that. Even more specific than that, (with) my glove-side sinker I haven’t had the right movement. Everything has been kind of running back to the middle and on kind of an up shoot. I’m not getting any sync or depth on that two-seam. We found out I wasn’t being strong on my backside and you can’t get out front as well. That’s really where I’m at.”"

He then promptly went out the next day and scored 53 fantasy points. He and the Cubs identified an issue and he fixed it. Now, I don’t expect 53 points but the Padres are awful against righty pitching. They sport the highest strikeout rate in the league, and then they rank no higher than 24th at home against right-handed pitching in average, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. He’s only $7,500 and lets you play just about any bat that you want. It might just be best to at chalk and find another spot to be different.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Padres Probable Starter – Luis Perdomo, RHP 

7.09 ERA, 2.10 WHIP and 14.8 hard hit rate

Vs LHH – .343 average, .398 wOBA, 14.3 K rate, 23.3 fly ball rate and 39.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .340 average, .386 wOBA, 15.5 K rate, 32.5 fly ball rate and 36.6 hard hit rate

This side of the game has tournament special written all over it for a lot of the same reasons the Giants and A’s game did. It’s in a poor park and it starts late. That’s plenty to depress ownership but Perdomo is a gas can by any metric out there. I don’t even think you’d have to be all that picky in this spot. His splits are terrible from either side of the plate and this matchup could get the Cubbies bats woken up. Kyle Schwarber and Javier Baez would be first up on my list as they’ve been more consistently powerful(each have an ISO over .270 and a wOBA over .370) against righty pitching than bigger name teammates Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant. To me, this isn’t the spot to pick a one-off. Go all in with the Cubs as a major leverage play or stick with the more popular offenses.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez

Secondary Options – Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant

Home Run Pick – Kyle Schwarber

DFS MLB – FanDuel Sample Lineup

P – Kyle Hendricks 

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C/1B – Matt Olson 

2B – Dee Gordon

3B – Nolan Arenado 

SS – Trevor Story

OF – Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, Dustin Fowler 

Utility – Nick Hundley 

Hello, Coors Field. It seems like it’s foolish to ignore that they face LeBlanc tonight in cash formats. Nolan Arenado should be 100 percent owned in any 50/50. That’s not an exaggeration. He’s he number one play in cash, period. If you don’t play him, you’re tempting the DFS gods or you didn’t do your research. Since you got to this pint in the article, you’re at least attempting to research so don’t make the rookie mistake. Tournaments are a different story, but even then he’s a difficult fade.

I’m not crazy about Dee Gordon, but second base is pretty gross tonight. That is subject to change and I’m not sure I really will roll out all four Coors hitters tonight. Shortstop especially is a very difficult choice and I could easily move to Lindor or Machado. I love the two A’s hitters because we have to find value somewhere. If Nick Hundley sits, I may send the Giants a strongly worded email asking them why they don’t care about my fantasy lineup. Teams have to have priorities, after all.

The Core – Nolan Arenado, Kyle Hendricks, Nick Hundely(if active)

Pitching to Consider 

High End – Andrew Heaney

Mid-Range – Kyle Hendricks

Punt – None

Stacks to Consider – Coors Field, Giants/A’s game, Chicago Cubs, Orioles/Rangers(yes, again)

Next: DraftKings MLB Picks

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.