DraftKings Early MLB Picks July 14: Berrios dominates at home

ATLANTA, GA – SEPTEMBER 5: The Atlanta Braves and the Texas Rangers wait out a pregame rain delay at SunTrust Park on September 5, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images) /

DraftKings Early MLB Picks July 14: Berrios dominates at home

We have a pretty even split this Saturday, which is a nice change from the last couple. There are seven afternoon games, and six night games. What happened to the other two? Well, the Jays and Red Sox do battle earlier than everyone else, so you only have showdown or all day for that one. Milwaukee and Pittsburgh are even earlier than that for the start of their doubleheader, so if you are doing the all day one, get those lineups in early! This will cover the seven afternoon games, which turns out to be the largest tournament of the day. We have three aces, but a shallow middle tier. Which way should we go for pitching? Let’s check it out!

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Rain is likely in both Chicago and Atlanta. The Royals-White Sox game should get through five before the rain really hits, so I’m avoiding pitching in that one (like I wouldn’t anyways). Atlanta has the same rain chance throughout the day. It will clear off later in the evening, but will the Braves wait until 8pm to start a game that was supposed to start at 4? Keep an eye on both of these situations.

The only wind is a 13 mph wind out to center in Citi Field. However, it’s going to be really hot and pretty humid in St. Louis, so look for flying baseballs there this afternoon.

We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!

These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!

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Next: DraftKings Pitcher Plays

NEW YORK, NY – JULY 09: Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies pitches in the first inning against the New York Mets during Game Two of a doubleheader at Citi Field on July 9, 2018 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Gerrit Cole ($12,000): Like Keuchel last night, Cole does not have good career numbers against the Tigers. However, this is not your older brother’s Tigers team. They are having issues scoring runs, and barely got to Keuchel last night. Cole has been mostly dominant this year, so I’m expecting a strong start here as well.

Aaron Nola ($11,500): If you are looking for dominating stats, here you go. The Marlins are hitting just .212 with no homers and six runs in 85 at bats with 19 strikeouts against Nola. Last night was a pitcher’s duel between the aces Wei-Yin Chen and Jake Arrieta. Yeah, pitcher’s parks are weird like that. Nola has the highest ceiling on the slate. If money allows, I would even take Nola over Berrios, though they are very close. We are running out of time for that elusive Marlins homer, and it’s not going to happen here either.

Jose Berrios ($10,900): It’s to the point with Berrios at Target Field that you start him no matter who the opponent. Berrios has a 2.49 ERA in 11 home starts, and is averaging 26 DraftKings points per game in those starts. This should be above average considering the Rays were dominated by Berrios last year, and this offense looks decidedly worse this year. I’m locking in Berrios here. 30 DraftKings points may be the floor!

Middle Tier:

Zack Greinke ($8,400): Quietly, Greinke has not allowed more than two runs in a start since June 13th. The talk is going to be about his subpar outing against San Diego last week, but he really wasn’t that bad. The Braves are only hitting .223 against Greinke with one homer and ten runs in 103 at bats with 28 strikeouts. If he can keep the ball in the yard, Greinke could have a solid start, which is pretty good at this price point.

Chris Archer ($7,200): Don’t expect a seven or eight inning gem out of Archer in his first start back, but the Twins are only hitting .195 against Archer with a homer and six runs in 82 at bats with 17 strikeouts. The pricing on Archer is DL special, so that makes this all the more enticing. I’ll take six innings from Archer, which should put him around 20 DraftKings points. That’s a good return on this investment.

Bargain Pitchers:

Sean Newcomb ($6,900): Newcomb has struggled in his last two starts, but both of those were on the road. The fact remains that Newcomb still has a strong 2.98 ERA in seven home starts. There is risk using him against an Arizona team that hits better on the road and has found their offensive rhythm. However, I still feel this price is too low here. Newcomb will give up a few runs, but not enough to leave you disappointed in his output.

Austin Voth ($5,300): You know, the Mets offense has been solid in this series, so I’m not as gung ho about this as I would have been a week ago. Still, Voth posted a solid 3.55 ERA in 15 starts at AAA Syracuse. He has to be better than Jefry Rodriguez, but that isn’t saying much. There is potential for Voth here, but if he gives up less than three runs he will have done better than the rest of the Nationals starters in this series, including Scherzer.

NEW YORK, NY – JULY 09: Wilmer Flores #4 of the New York Mets celebrates after hitting a game-winning, walk-off home run in the 10th inning against the Philadelphia Phillies during Game One of a doubleheader at Citi Field on July 9, 2018 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /

Houston Astros vs. Michael Fulmer:

Fulmer’s ERA is slightly worse on the road, which means that he has been hit hard at home lately too. He used to have drastic splits. Not anymore. That said, Fulmer has gone at least six innings in three straight starts. There is a chance that he holds his own against the Astros, but I wouldn’t bet on it. The issue here is the price of the Astros hitters. If you are not worried about price, Bregman, Altuve, and Springer should be in there. If you are a miser today, Marwin Gonzalez and Josh Reddick are a little more your speed, and are still pretty dangerous. By the way, the Astros are hitting .364 in their careers against Fulmer.

New York Mets vs. Austin Voth:

Can you name five Mets hitters? If so, they could be worth stacking against Voth in his major league debut. Even if I don’t stack, I want some stock in Asdrubal Cabrera and Jose Bautista, both of whom are hitting well right now. Even Nimmo seems to be breaking out of his slump. Now if Conforto could come around, this could be a decent offense. However, I’m inclined to go with Amed Rosario over Conforto here.

Washington Nationals vs. Zack Wheeler:

The Nats put up three runs on seven hits in six innings against Wheeler earlier this year and are now hitting .284 with two homers and 11 runs in only 67 at bats against Wheeler. The 19 strikeouts are a bit much, but in that first meeting, the Nationals only struck out twice. With that many balls in play, some are bound to fall. Bryce Harper has a homer, and he is still relatively cheap while in his slump. Daniel Murphy has the other homer and four RBI. Trea Turner, Rendon, and Wilmer Difo all have batting averages north of .300 against Wheeler.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Luis Castillo:

The Cardinals have rung up eight runs in 11 innings against Castillo this year. I mentioned earlier that conditions are very favorable to hitters here, so it looks like another long short afternoon for Castillo. Wong, Ozuna, and DeJong have the homers off of Castillo this year, and Yadier Molina is 3-7 with three RBI. Matt Carpenter is worth a look as well, and I’m inclined to go with Fowler if Molina is out of the lineup.

CLEVELAND, OH – MAY 13: Mike Moustakas #8 of the Kansas City Royals waits to bat against the Cleveland Indians during the first inning at Progressive Field on May 13, 2018 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Indians defeated the Royals 11-2. (Photo by Ron Schwane/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Mike Moustakas has pulverized Reynaldo Lopez so far. Moose is 4-13 with three homers off of Lopez. If you are looking to save some cash, Alcides Escobar even has a homer off of Lopez, and he will set you back all of $2,700.

I can’t really see stacking Phillies in a pitcher’s park, even against Trevor Richards. However, I do want some exposure here. Hoskins and Herrera are the top options with Cesar Hernandez and Nick Williams not far behind.

Goldy against a lefty anywhere is a good idea, especially one that has struggled lately like Sean Newcomb has. Pollock is worth a look as well.

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Middle Tier:

Danny Duffy has pitched well lately, but with the rain chance, this looks like a good time to gamble on some cheap White Sox hitters. Matt Davidson and Jose Abreu are $4,300 and $3,800 respectively, and they have both homered twice off of Duffy. The good news is that the Royals bullpen may be even worse than the starters, so the White Sox hitters are in play for today.

Nick Markakis has the homer and six of the ten RBI against Zack Greinke. Freddie Freeman is always worth a look, but if you can only afford one, I recommend Markakis.

The Reds haven’t really cooled off all that much in this series, so I think I’m going to stay away from Flaherty today. Jesse Winker homered off of him last year, which was an early shower for Flaherty. Flaherty has been slightly worse at home this year, so I’m laying off with the weather and a hot team opposing him. If you want more exposure, Votto and Gennett are solid picks. I’m not sure that I want to pay the premium for Suarez.

For what it’s worth, Eduardo Escobar is the only Twin to homer off of Chris Archer so far.

Bargain Shoppers:

Mikie Mahtook is dirt cheap, and he is the only Tiger to homer off of Gerrit Cole so far. He is worth it as a bit of cheap exposure. Nick Castellanos is 5-10 with four RBI against Cole in his career though.

Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns

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