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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Saturday July 14

By Brian Tulloch

SAN DIEGO, CA - JULY 9: Manager Dave Roberts #30 of the Los Angeles Dodgers gives a thumbs up to fans before a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park on July 9, 2018 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CA - JULY 9: Manager Dave Roberts #30 of the Los Angeles Dodgers gives a thumbs up to fans before a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park on July 9, 2018 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS
SAN DIEGO, CA – JULY 9: Manager Dave Roberts #30 of the Los Angeles Dodgers gives a thumbs up to fans before a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park on July 9, 2018 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) MLB DFS /

Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Oh boy – I went all in on Ryan Borucki last night and the good news is, I knew very early my night was toast. Special thanks to the Blue Jays “defense” for not being able to field ground balls, make routine plays and generally play baseball behind their pitcher for that fun time. That game though ended up being the key for big time scores as the Jays and Red Sox combined for 20 runs with Justin Smoak and Mookie Betts the top scoring options on the entire slate.

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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.

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As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

MLB DFS
MLB DFS /

MLB DFS – Early Slate Pitching:

The early 7 game MLB DFS slate on FantasyDraft stands out as one where pitching should dominate as you can almost make the case for every arm on the slate and with only one offense expected to score more than 5 run (Houston versus Michael Fulmer), I think prioritizing pitching on this slate is the way to go. Although Gerrit Cole is the top arm on the slate price wise, coming off an 11 K outing against the A’s, personally I am looking more towards Aaron Nola ($21.9K) and Jose Berrios ($21.4K) to anchor my pitching on this early slate.

Nola gets a road start against the Marlins, coming into this start in exceptional form, going at least 7 innings in each of his last three starts, while striking out 8, 9 and 10 batters against the Mets, Orioles and Nationals while putting up 30, 31 and 38 fantasy points in those outings. Nola has one start this year against the Marlins, also in Miami, back in May where we went 7.1 IP, striking out 7, and giving up 0 ER on his way to 31.5 fantasy points. Nola just dominated right-handed batters with a 28% K rate and 51% GB rate and should face a Marlins team with only 3 LHB in the line-up – when you consider that Nola limits hard contact (only 25%) and will be pitching in a massive pitcher’s park – this looks to be an elite spot for cash games with the upside for GPP play.

The Picks and Pivots flow chart on Jose Berrios is simple – is he playing at home? Yes? Than I play him – every damn time, it is that simple. I have been beating the drum all year-long on this but the last two seasons Berrios has proven he is a totally different pitcher at home and in 2018 this is a pitcher with a 31% K rate at home versus only a 17% mark on the road. Berrios is home today against the Tampa Bay Rays and after putting up 29 and 41 fantasy points in his last two home starts against the Royals and Rangers, I could argue that Berrios is the best arm of the bunch.

I am not normally one to argue for paying up for pitching and not sure I have ever argued for paying up for BOTH pitching spots but I think within the context of this slate, that approach is warranted. With Nola and Berrios, you get two high K arms against two of the weakest offenses in baseball and even rostering both, you still have $7.1K per batter to fill in your roster. No punt plays for me today – I am paying up for arms on the early slate and going to the bargain bin for my hitters.

MLB DFS
CHICAGO, IL – JUNE 27: Jose Abreu #79 of the Chicago White Sox is greeted by Avisail Garcia #26 after hitting a home run against the Minnesota Twins during the fifth inning on June 27, 2018 at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Early Slate Hitting:

As I mentioned, there is only one time with a 5+ run total on this slate and I am not sure I want to pay the prices for the Astros batters against a pitcher in Michael Fulmer who is giving up a .099 ISO to RHB this season with a 51% GB rate. The reality is there is no real obvious “game stack” or elite hitting options which is why the more I look at this slate I am leaning towards building around arms and looking for cheaper bats to stack.

I have a feeling Danny Duffy will be a popular SP2 option on this slate after his strong outing against the Twins and with a game against the White Sox, this is a spot most tend to attack with opposing arms. I actually think if that is the case, playing the leverage and stacking the White Sox batters here is a viable cheap strategy. Duffy on the season is giving up a .208 ISO and 39% HC rate to right-handed batters and has faced this Chicago team twice this season – giving up 9 ER in 10 innings of work.

The two “must have” bats in any White Sox stack for me are Jose Abreu and Matt Davidson as Abreu has a .258 ISO while Davidson is sporting a massive .327 ISO mark versus LHP in 2018. Kevan Smith ($5.4K) will likely bat 5th today as makes for an elite punt option within this stack or even as a one-off play to save salary, as does Adam Engel ($6.4K) who is 6 for 9 with 3 doubles and a near .800 ISO against Duffy in his career.

On the other side of this game the Royals make for an interesting game stack possibility against RHP Reynaldo Lopez, a fly ball pitcher who gives up nearly 34% HC to left-handed batters. Guaranteed Rate Park in Chicago is the best park for left-handed power on this slate so locking in Mike Moustakas and Lucas Duda are the top options here, especially Moose who is 4 for 13 against Lopez with 3 HR’s in his career.

If you lock in Nola/Berrios and the bats mentioned above you still have $6,450 per player for your last two spots and with the All-Star Break approaching we can expect a few veterans to start sitting out which would give us some potential value plays to scour through once line-ups are released.

MLB DFS
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – JULY 11: Lucas Duda #21 of the Kansas City Royals congratulates teammate Mike Moustakas #8 on a solo home run against the Minnesota Twins during the third inning of the game on July 11, 2018 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:

The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!  

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SP: Aaron Nola ($21.9K)

SP: Jose Berrios ($21.4K)

IF: Matt Davidson ($8.2K)

IF: Jose Abreu ($7.3K)

IF: Kevan Smith ($5.4K)

OF: Adam Engel ($6.4K)

OF: Hunter Dozier ($6.4K)

OF: Chris Owings ($6.4K)

UTIL; Lucas Duda ($7.3K)

UTIL: Mike Moustakas ($9.2K)

Slate Overview: The early slate which kicks off at 2PM EST is all about pitching for me and my goal is to prioritize paying up for two stud arms in Nola and Berrios and find the value stacks like the White Sox and Royals to make it work. Enjoy the early MLB DFS action and let’s get ready for the Main Slate!

MLB DFS
ANAHEIM, CA – AUGUST 23: Andrew Heaney /

MLB DFS – Main Slate Overview:

Well the Main Slate pitching is not nearly as great, with no arm over $20K and with a game in Coors Field, I think the chalk build will be to stack Coors and use the pricing savings to make it work. I wonder with that context how many will opt to pay for the top priced arm on the slate in Andrew Heaney ($18.9K) in LA against the Dodgers. Heaney is coming off back to back 10 K outings against this same Dodgers team and the Mariners before that with a massive 19.1% swinging strike rate in those two games and 35.1 K rate. It is those metrics that make me eager to lock in the K upside of Heaney because when you look at the other options, the K upside just simply is not there for any other arm on this slate.

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We go from the top to the bottom with Luis Perdomo ($9.9K) as the punt SP2 option on this slate and after using him against the Dodgers last time out, I probably should stop recommending this dude but I always find myself going back to him. Here is the case for Perdomo – he is at home in Petco Park and will face a Cubs team with likely 6 RHB in the line-up. On the season, RHB have a .082 ISO against Perdomo and the K rate since 2017 is just under 20% for Perdomo when facing right-handed batters. The risk here is that lefties hit him hard and he cannot strike them out so Rizzo/Schwarber/Heyward become dangerous bats he will have to navigate but with Coors Field on a short slate, I may need to take the risk here to get myself the salary savings to fit in those high-priced bats.

Although the Rangers/Orioles game has a 10 total, I have played the stack against Martin Perez game before and I am not going to try to pivot off Coors Field with LHP Wade LeBlanc and Jon Gray back from AAA on the hill. The Rockies at home against a lefty become stack city with Nolan Arenado, DJ LeMehieu, Trevory Story and Ian Desmond all becoming near must plays – especially Arenado, Story and Desmond who have .395, .306 and .272 ISO marks against LHP respectively this season.

On the Mariners side, the left-handed batters have been what has ruined Grays year, sporting a .217 ISO and 37% HC rate, making Kyle Seager ($8.4K) one of the best plays on the entire slate. Mitch Haniger ($9.6K) and his .242 ISO mark against RHP this season make him an ideal pairing with Seager and if Chris Herrmann ($5.7K) is in the line-up, than he makes one of the best punt plays on the slate. I am not getting cute here tonight – I am game stacking this spot tonight as my core build and letting others make the mistake of fading it.

Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns

Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!