How much would Michael Fulmer help the Yankees this season?
Yankee fans are desperate to see Brian Cashman acquire a starting pitcher to upgrade the rotation. Michael Fulmer might be the team’s best chance.
Contrary to popular belief, the Yankees have the ammunition to deal for Manny Machado and starting pitching help. Making a move for one does not prevent Brian Cashman for doing the other. With that being said, the starting pitching market is pretty thin.
The Yankees may choose to go for a probable rental like J.A. Happ or Cole Hamels, but at the moment it seems the team’s preference is to acquire a more permanent solution. Since the Mets are in no mood to send Noah Syndergaard or Jacob deGrom across town, Detroit ace Michael Fulmer might represent the top of the market.
From the Tigers’ perspective, Fulmer has picked an inopportune time to have his worst season. His current ERA of 4.11 is a half a run higher than his career average of 3.61. No one should really concern themselves with his 3-8 record given Detroit’s struggles on the season, but that doesn’t help boost his trade value either. The Tigers can still expect to get a good return for their 25-year-old ace, but they could have gotten more for him before his mediocre pitching this season.
Depending on your perspective, the Yankees either have a chance to buy low on Fulmer or they’re positioned to acquire a pitcher whose career trajectory is aimed downhill. Digging into Fulmer’s stats reveals equal reasons for both optimism and concern.
The jump in his ERA is pretty easy to understand. Fulmer is walking more hitters than ever before and giving up home runs at a career high level. Doing either of those things by themselves make it hard to keep your ERA down, doing both together makes it absolutely impossible.
The good news is that Fulmer is still striking batters out at a healthy clip. His strikeouts per nine innings is 1.4 higher than what he posted last year. The conclusion here is that Fulmer’s stuff is still in tact, but he’s struggling with command. It’s impossible to project whether or not the Yankees’ coaching staff can help him make adjustments to correct the latter.
The logical thing to do is to project him to continue pitching just as he is. That means Fulmer would be a decent, but unspectacular pitcher. That would still allow him to be a significant upgrade over what Aaron Boone’s trotting out there currently.
Fulmer’s 4.11 ERA would comfortably allow him to slot in as the Yankees’ third starter. Luis Severino is an unquestioned ace and CC Sabathia has been a terrific surprise for the team this season. His ERA of 3.34 is a solid bet to regress during the second half of the season, but for now, he’s the second best starter on the staff.
Masahiro Tanaka is currently entrenched as the No. 3 starter and it’s unlikely he’s going anywhere anytime soon. His ERA of 4.68 isn’t great, but his track record of success should keep him in the rotation moving forward. His safety is also increased by the spectacular struggles of Boone’s fourth and fifth starters.
Calculating Fulmer’s potential value has to be based in comparison to what Sonny Gray and Domingo German are currently providing the Yankees. It’s possible Jonathan Loaisiga can come back at some point, but he’s on the DL currently. Justus Sheffield may also boost the rotation at some point this summer, but that’s a question for another day. Right now, Fulmer’s potential job would be to send either Gray or German to the bullpen.
Their ERAs are almost identical. Gray is sporting a mark of 5.46 and German is at 5.49. Obviously, Fulmer would provide New York a significant upgrade over either pitcher. Both have shown occasional flashes of brilliance this year, but have been plagued by inconsistency. The smart money would be to predict German’s relegation to the pen.
The simplest way to estimate Fulmer’s potential value over German is to take a look at the WAR they’ve provided to date. German has been a negative for the Yankees at -.3. In contrast, Fulmer has been a positive for the Tigers at 1.6. If you extrapolate those results for the rest of the season, the Tigers hurler seems like a good bet to give the Yankees an extra two wins down the stretch.
There are, however, solid reasons to believe he could provide the team even more value. The emotional certainty of adding another competent starter could provide serious intangible benefits to the squad. There’s no way to quantify how much the pressure of propping up German’s shaky starts harms the team.
Regular season contributions are great, but the real reason the Yankees are desperate to acquire another above-average starter is to pay dividends in the postseason. Fulmer hasn’t pitched in the playoffs before, but he’d almost certainly get a chance to compete with Tanaka for a spot in the Yankees’ postseason rotation.
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Ultimately, any move for Fulmer is going to be judged by how much he can help the Yankees win the AL East and earn another World Series championship. He can help New York achieve both goals but he’s not the sort of ace that’s going to turn a season, or series by himself.