DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Sunday, July 15

Welcome into the Sunday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have a big 11 game slate to take us into the All-Star break so let’s go to work.

Today is the last slate before the All-Star break and my suggestion after lock is to just take a breath for a couple of days and let the stats drain away for a bit. There’s plenty of time to get back at it in the second half, but every DFS MLB player out there can use a day or two off right now. If you read this column often(or even if you’re new), let me hear what you think. Am I missing something you want to see? What can I do to improve? There’s a few stats that I’ll be incorporating after the break but if there’s something you want to see, talk to us on social media and let us know what you think. This article is yours as much as mine, so let’s work on it together. Alright, enough of that, let’s dive in!

DFS MLB – Rangers at Orioles

Rangers Probable Starter – Mike Minor, LHP 

4.56 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 19.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .233 average, .296 wOBA, 18.9 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .255 average, .339 wOBA, 19.5 K rate, 46.8 fly ball rate and 42.4 hard hit rate

I try not to do this to you guys very often, but using the Orioles today is really going to be personal preference and how froggy you feel constructing your lineup. The reason I’m saying that is because it has seemed that no matter what type of glorious spot they’ve been in lately, they have come up very small. Does Mike Minor look like a pitcher I want to attack with righty hitters? You bet. It’s just not smart to ignore how bad this offense is right now and that stands to reason that they’re a bad baseball team. If we take a walk onto Narrative Street, there’s a really good chance this is the last game for Manny Machado as an Oriole. Rumors picked up steam Saturday that the trade is getting closer to being done. He’s going to want to go out in a big way and I’ll likely have a share or two. The wOBA and ISO look good for Danny Valencia and Mark Trumbo but I’m not sure I can bring myself to go down the Orioles path again. Now that I’ve said that, I’ll bet they go off today as I said here wistfully looking at all the good scores with Baltimore hitters in the lineup.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

ELite Options – Manny Machado

Secondary Options – Mark Trumbo, Danny Valencia

Orioles Probable Starter – TBA 

It would appear that the Orioles are ending their first half by using the bullpen for the entire game. Jimmy Yacabonis has been taken out of his spot because he’s ill and there’s a chance that Chris Tillman could start. That doesn’t seem totally likely, but if he does, load up on Ranger hitters. Tillman has been getting scorched from both sides of the plate but lefties hit him even harder, which isn’t a good mix when facing the Rangers. Shin-soo Choo would be one of the chalkiest plays of the day and I’d have no problem eating that against Tillman. You could mix in Nomar Mazara and Rougned Odor in that scenario. If they just use the pen, I’m likely to skip most of the Rangers hitters today. It becomes easier for the Orioles to create matchups they want and gives a little less predictability.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – TBD

Secondary Options – TBD

Home Run Pick – Manny Machado gives the home fans one more reason to cheer

DFS MLB – Blue Jays at Red Sox

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Marcus Stroman, RHP 

5.90 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 17.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .288 average, .337 wOBA, 16.2 K rate, 15.9 fly ball rate and 41.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .264 average, .324 wOBA, 19.8 K rate, 23.5 fly ball rate and 41.0 hard hit rate

I really wish I knew which version of Stroman we’re going to get today. The surface numbers are terrible but the catch with Stroman is his ground ball rate. It’s well over 60 percent to both sides of the plate and if he’s got his good stuff, there’s potential that he annoys the Red Sox offense even if he wouldn’t be fantasy relevant. I’m not here to die on the “Marcus Stroman is a good play today” hill. He’s not and I don’t want my mentions full of “mArCuS sTrOmAn WaS a GoOd PlAy ToDaY” memes. My overall point is there is more risk than normal in paying top dollar for hitters like Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. There’s every chance that they go 2-4 with a double or two singles. I don’t feel comfortable that they’ll hit home runs. Even with all of his struggles, Stroman has only given up seven all season. The Boston offense is more of a GPP play today because there is legitimate downside. I would stack if you go after this game.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez(GPP)

Secondary Options – Xander Bogaerts, Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi(if active)

Red Sox Probable Starter – Brian Johnson, LHP 

4.23 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 19.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .235 average, .276 wOBA, 19.6 K rate, 35.9 fly ball rate and 27.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .313 average, .354 wOBA, 18.7 K rate, 38.5 fly ball rate and 29.5 hard hit rate

If we take a look at BvP data through the prism of wOBA and xwOBA, Justin Smoak is one of the best plays on the entire slate. It’s only six at-bats but Smoak has a wOBA of .856 and an xwOBA of  .819 against Johnson. Smoak is also the team leader among regular hitters in ISO and wOBA against lefties. He’s also been pretty hot lately and he might still go under the radar today. He’s definitely on my radar as a really great play because he couldn’t check many more boxes. In only 33 at-bats, Dwight Smith Jr.has a .310 ISO and a .407 wOBA and his strikeout rate is only at 12 percent. He’s only $2,100 and if he’s in the lineup, he’s the perfect punt play today. Randall Grichuk has good metrics but is also pretty risky with his low batting average. It’s hard to make an argument for him unless you’re going full-blown Blue Jays today.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Justin Smoak, Dwight Smith Jr.n
Secondary Options – Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez

Home Run Pick – Justin Smoak

DFS MLB – Yankees at Indians

Yankees Probable Starter – Masahiro Tanaka, RHP 

4.68 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 24.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .227 average, .304 wOBA, 20.8 K rate, 32.5 fly ball rate and 28.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .227 average, .325 wOBA, 27.0 K rate, 43.7 fly ball rate and 39.8 hard hit rate

At this point, I think I would consider Jose Ramirez if he was facing off against height of his powers Clayton Kershaw. You better believe that he’s in consideration today because he’s still only $4,700. That sounds like a lot but he’s hit five home runs in his last five games and has scored at least 24 FanDuel points in those games. Ramirez is at has best against righty pitching with a .450 wOBA and a .378 ISO. Tanaka is giving up 1.99 HR/9 this season so you do the math here. There’s no Nolan Areando on this slate(though there is another high end third baseman later) and that should change the ownership. I really don’t care at this point because I’m not going to be on the wrong end of another huge game from Ramirez. Tanaka also throws his slider around 35 percent of the time which could mean Francisco Lindor is in line for a big game as well, being one of the best slider hitters in baseball. It could be a long day for Tanaka.

Indians Hitters to target 

Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Options – Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Brantley, potentially bottom of the order

Indians Probable Starter – Trevor Bauer, RHP 

2.30 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 31.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .186 average, .243 wOBA, 32.8 K rate, 34.8 fly ball rate and 32.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .219 average, .270 wOBA, 31.0 K rate, 35.3 fly ball rate and 36.3 hard hit rate

Bauer might be my GP pitcher of choice today for a couple of reasons. First, most people will go to the other ace pitcher on the slate without much hesitation. The ownership is going to be low. Since the May 22nd start against the Cubs, Bauer has made nine starts. Six of them have been double digit strikeout efforts and all of them have been at least eight. Lastly, you worry about pitching someone against the Yankees because they lead the majors in home runs. Bauer has only surrendered five homers all season. If the Yankees aren’t hitting the ball out of the yard, their top eight strikeout rate against righty pitching could shine through. I won’t own any Yankees bats today and even Giancarlo Stanton and Arron Judge have strikeout rates over 30 percent so they’re not appealing against a strikeout artist like Bauer.

Yankees Hitters to target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Yankee Stack

Home Run Pick – Jose Ramirez rides the streak into the break

DFS MLB – Phillies at Marlins

Phillies Probable Starter – Enyel De Los Santos, RHP 

*6.1 IP* 4.26 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 23.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .000 average, .115 wOBA, 33.3 K rate, 50.0 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate(12 Batters)

Vs RHH – .385 average, .490 wOBA, 14.3 K rate, 45.5 fly ball rate and 36.4 hard hit rate(14 Batters)

We’ve only seen one start from De Los Santos and it netted a very nice 38 FanDuel points. It actually should have been higher but Gabe Kepler put him back out for the seventh inning, which seemed inadvisable even at the time. De Los Santos has only seen his price rise by $200 so he’s definitely going to be worth a flier today. Miami doesn’t have the strikeout rate that would lead to a ceiling game from De Los Santos but at borderline minimum pricing, you don’t really need it. At least through one start, Justin Bour wouldn’t be on the “right” side of the splits. It’s probably not wise to put a ton of weight into those splits but the only other hitter you really feel is J.T. Realmuto. If De Los Santos can control those two hitters, he’s got a chance for his second straight solid start. The Marlins can be a little peskier than most think but price rules all in some scenarios.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – J.T. Realmuto

Secondary Options – Justin Bour, Derek Dietrich, Starlin Castro

Marlins Probable Starter – Jose Urena, RHP

4.13 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 19.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .267 average, .317 wOBA, 17.2 K rate, 29.4 fly ball rate and 44.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .242 average, .287 wOBA, 22.5 K rate, 27.3 fly ball rate and 39.0 hard hit rate

The Philly offense is  little more mediocre than most people realize, but I can’t get after Urena today because there’s not a ton of upside with him. His strikeout rate is low enough that I don’t want to chase him. If you go after the Phillies hitters, you’re going to want some of the lefties that they have. They are fairly cheap and the one I would be most interested in is Odubel Herrera. He has the best combo of wOBA, ISO and is decent enough against Urena’s pitch mix The ball park shift doesn’t hep but Herrera, Cesar Hernandez and Carlos Santana are all $3,200 or less. you can use any or all of them but I don’t think they’re the best option on this slate. I would only use Herrera in cash game settings and Rhys Hoskins would be off the table for me today given the splits that Urena has displayed so far this year.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Odubel Herrera

Secondary Options – Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez

Home Run Pick – J.T. Realmuto

DFS MLB – Nationals at Mets

Nationals Probable Starter – Jeremy Hellickson, RHP 

3.47 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 18.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .252 average, .323 wOBA, 19.7 K rate, 27.4 fly ball rate and 27.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .226 average, .269 wOBA, 17.5 K rate, 31.1 fly ball rate and 30.3 hard hit rate

Other than one start that he got totally blown up against the Marlins, Hellickson has been a steady Eddie pitcher so far. That’s good news for the Nationals but bad news for fantasy players. You can’t play Hellickson because his max is five innings. They don’t let him pitch to the order a third time through as he only has faced 29 batters a third time. The strikeout rate isn’t good enough to only get five innings. What’s even worse he’s been good enough that you don’t want to attack him with hitters all that much. Both Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo hit lefty and Nimmo is still carrying a .402 wOBA against righties. He’s cheap too but I’m not convinced I want to leave my fate in the hands of the Mets for cash games. The fly ball rate and hard hit rates are under 30 percent which speaks to the lack of upside here. A lefty stack of those two hitters and Asdrubal Cabrera could do some damage and would fly under the radar for GPP’s.

Mets Hitters to target 

Elite Options – Brandon Nimmo

Secondary Options – Asdrubal Cabrera, Michael Conforto

Mets Probable Starter – Corey Oswalt, RHP 

6.75 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 19.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .174 average, .318 wOBA, 15.4 K rate, 55.6 fly ball rate and 31.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .233 average, .295 wOBA, 21.3 K rate, 18.2 fly ball rate and 39.4 hard hit rate

The batting average for lefty hitters doesn’t look good but every other metric does. Oswalt is giving up an enormous 2.84 HR/9 to lefties and young buck Juan Soto stands out in this matchup. Soto is right behind Bryce Harper against fastballs and is the team’s third best curveball hitter, which is 89 percent of the pitches Oswalt throws. Soto also has a .377 wOBA and a .198 ISO against righties this year so there’s a lot of factors working in his favor. Harper is an option but he’s GPP at best. His strikeout rate in July is approaching 50 percent. I’d be happy to take a stab at Adam Eaton at his price point, although his upside is somewhat limited. I think I might leave the righties alone for this one. Oswalt is a very unproven pitcher but he’s limited the fly balls to under 20 percent to righties. That’s hard to sign up for and Anthony Rendon might be the only exception.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Juan Soto

Secondary Options – Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon

Home Run Pick – Juan Soto

DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Braves

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Patrick Corbin, LHP 

3.09 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 31.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .261 average, .353 wOBA, 31.0 K rate, 21.4 fly ball rate and 47.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .191 average, .240 wOBA, 31.4 K rate, 30.2 fly ball rate and 43.4 hard hit rate

Man, this side of the game is a hard one to pin down. The splits for Corbin don’t look great since he’s facing the braves. Atlanta has two of the better lefty on lefty hitters in the league, which has to scare you a little bit when rostering Corbin. Both Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis have a wOBA over .385 against lefty pitching. The good news is Corbin throws his slider almost 40 percent of the time. The only two hitters that rate well against that pitch are Freeman and Ozzie Albies. Corbin has been pretty solid lately, especially if you give him the standard “He started in Coors Field” free pass. He’s $3,000 cheaper than the chalk pitcher of the day and could be well worth rostering fi you can get the right bats alongside him. I would normally point to Tyler Flowers and his .555 wOBA against lefties but Corbin has pitched very well against righty hitters this season.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Options – Ozzie Albies, Nick Markakis

Braves Probable Starter – Julio Teheran, RHP 

4.26 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 22.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .235 average, .355 wOBA, 17.9 K rate, 43.3 fly ball rate and 41.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .174 average, .273 wOBA, 26.3 K rate, 41.0 fly ball rate and 35.7 hard hit rate

If you want the off the board pitching play for today, you’ve gotten to the right side of the game. There is plenty of risk if you pitch Teheran because he’s inconsistent and he’s worse against lefty hitters. he should face at least four or five but here’s the catch that works for Teheran – Arizona is quietly terrible against righty pithing. They have a top 10 strikeout rate and they rank 20th or worse in average, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. My favorite play from the Diamondbacks might be Daniel Descalso if he’s in the game. Teheran is throwing his fastball a ton and Descalso is the second best fastball hitter on the team. The ISO is over .200 and the wOBA is over .350. David Peralta is also appealing from the perspective but he rates significantly worse against the fastball and is better against the slider, which is around 20 percent for Teheran.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Daniel Descalso, Paul Goldschmidt

Secondary Options – David Peralta

Home Run Pick – David Peralta

DFS MLB – Brewers at Pirates

Brewers Probable Starter – Jhoulys Chacin, RHP 

3.78 ERA, 1.31 WHIPa and 18.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .277 average, .346 wOBA, 13.8 K rate, 33.1 fly ball rate and 39.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .192 average, .253 wOBA, 23.3 K rate, 37.3 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard hit rate

Chacin has always had poor splits between righty and lefty hitters so these splits aren’t anything new. Gregory Polanco is possibly one of the best plays on the slate because he is red-hot, hitting two home runs yesterday in a double header. Chacin throws his slider 40 percent of the time and Polanco is the second best slider hitter on the team and ranks in the top 30 in baseball. Polanco also has a .494 xwOBA. $3,500 can feel a little pricey for Polanco but I think he’s gong to be worth the spend today. The leading slider hitter on the Pirates is Starling Marte but being a righty take shim out of the running for me. Colin Moran would be an excellent play if there wasn’t two elite third baseman that I really want to play tonight. You could also add in Corey Dickerson and complete a Bucco lefty stack.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Gregory Polanco

Secondary Options – Corey Dickerson, Colin Moran

Pirates Probable Starter – Joe Musgrove, RHP 

3.77 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 22.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .313 average, .364 wOBA, 17.8 K rate, 31.7 fly ball rate and 34.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .243 average, .282 wOBA, 26.6 K rate, 38.4 fly ball rate and 33.8 hard hit rate

If we get a Brewers lineup that only has 2 leftie hitters in it, Musgrove might be a pretty solid play for today. He’s only given up more than three earned runs in two of his eight starts. He’s also flashed strikeout upside against righty hitters and the Brewers carry the fourth worst strikeout rate in baseball against righty pitching. Eric Thames is on the disabled list which will make life a little easier today and even Christian Yelich doesn’t have a ton of power upside. Jonathan Villar can get on and steal a base but I wouldn’t expect a lot more than that. If Musgrove can get by Travis Shaw, a 35 point start isn’t out of the question here. Milwaukee has hit the skids in this series and it could carry over to the plate enough for Musgrove to take advantage.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Travis Shaw

Secondary Options – Jonathan Villar, Christian Yelich

Home Run Pick – Gregory Polando

DFS MLB – Tigers at Astros

Tigers Probable Starter – Francisco Liriano, LHP 

4.74 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 18.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .091 average, .194 wOBA, 25.4 K rate, 38.5 fly ball rate and 20.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .270 average, .364 wOBA, 17.1 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 32.0 hard hit rate

Alex Bregman might just be the lock of the slate, potentially even more so than Jose Ramirez. In six at-bats against Liriano, he has a .910 wOBA. That’s a real number and I checked it multiple times. The stud for the Astros just won’t stop hitting and he’s better against lefty pitching with .311 wOBA and a .439 wOBA. This is a bad matchup for Liriano in just about any factor to look at. George Springer hasn’t played quite up to snuff lately but $3,600 is really tempting. I want to play Evan Gattis and his .274 ISO but not sure if my main lineup is going to have room for him. I also have to stay true to my brand and say Max Stassi is in play, even though he hasn’t paid off the past couple times I’ve rostered him. This is legiamtely one of the worst matchups Liriano could draw by his metrics.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Evan Gattis, George Springer

Secondary Options – Max Stassi

Astros Probable Starter – Justin Verlander, RHP 

2.05 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 31.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .168 average, .247 wOBA, 33.8 K rate, 55.9 fly ball rate and 24.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .187 average, .230 wOBA, 29.9 K rate, 55.4 fly ball rate and 30.4 hard hit rate

The Tigers are much worse against righty pitching and there’s no hitter that I want form this side of the game. Verlander is going to be the chalk in cash games so just be aware of that if you feel like pitching someone different. Nobody is going to play Bauer in cash games and the pitching tier takes a dive after that. I won’t even be stacking the Tigers in a GPP setting today.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – George Springer

DFS MLB – Royals at White Sox

Royals Probable Starter – Burch Smith, RHP 

5.83 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and 23.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .306 average, .365 wOBA, 19.5 K rate, 41.8 fly ball rate and 42.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .258 average, .380 wOBA, 25.9 K rate, 46.7 fly ball rate and 54.1 hard hit rate

I’ll try to figure out what exactly a Burch Smith is, but he doesn’t look like a good pitcher. If Yoan Moncada is in the lineup for the White Sox today, he has to be one of the first spots you would look to in this game. Moncada played yesterday against a lefty so I think we would be safe. He’s never a safe play but $3,200 is fair for him with his potential upside. The White Sox offense is a lot like the Orioles. The matchup looks great for them but they’ve come up small in some pretty cake spots before. Daniel Palka should be back in the lineup today and he’s a fine cheap option in the outfield with his .235 ISO but the 36 percent strikeout rate is terrifying. I want to attack Smith but the trust issues with the Chicago offense are real.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Yoan Moncada

Secondary Options – Yolmer Sanchez, Daniel Palka

White Sox Probable Starter – Lucas Giolito, RHP 

6.59 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 12.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .272 average, .386 wOBA, 9.1 K rate, 44.6 fly ball rate and 30.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .230 average, .336 wOBA, 17.0 K rate, 40.4 fly ball rate and 28.6 hard hit rate

If there’s an offense that could be one for Giolito to have a good game against, we might be looking at it in Kansas City. They’re a poor offense and the only two bats that I would look at is Lucas Duda and Mike Moustakas. I don’t know if they can crack the final lineup but they should be on the radar regardless. Moose has been the subject of trade rumors lately and they could be weighing him down on the field. Other than the random big game here and there, he’s been fairly poor lately. The ISO of .259 and the wOBA of .353 for Moustakas do look pretty solid. Lucas Duda is all in play for the value he brings to the table. Maybe these two teams combine for a huge number and it’s certainly worth chasing in GPP formats but I’m not sure how far I trust either offense in this game. Most of the players I would want to play are playing at positions that I already have filled.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Mike Mosutakas, Lucas Duda

Home Run Pick – Yolmer Sanchez

DFS MLB – Rays at Twins

Rays Probable Starter – Bullpen Day 

The rays are using the bullpen for the last day before the All-Star Break. Ryne Stanek is starting but won’t stay in the game for long. This weird system is working for the Rays, but it’s roundly terrible for us DFS players. We used to be able to take advantage of who was the next man up, but even those pitchers have been getting pulled earlier than we had thought before the game started. I’m hands off the Rays pitching situation and I don’t want too many Twins hitters. There’s no way you can predict the way the pitching will work out on a given day. You don’t want to pay for a player like Eddie Rosario just to see him get a fresh pitcher out of the pen and be on the wrong side of the splits.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar

Twins Probable Starter – Fernando Romero, RHP 

4.38 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 19.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .256 average, .343 wOBA, 18.3 K rate, 37.7 fly ball rate and 43.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .248 average, .312 wOBA, 20.6 K rate, 29.8 fly ball rate and 41.9 hard hit rate

Romero has shown some flashes in his short career to this point but lefties have gotten to him a little bit, especially via the long ball. His HR/9 to lefties is sitting at 2.08 and the Rays offense has been alive and kicking in Minnesota. I want Jake Bauers and his .244 ISO the most with his power upside, and the fact that he hits fastballs and sliders well. Those are the main two pitches for Romero. Bauers is going to be tough to fit in positionally, just like some of the other hitters we’ve discussed. Kevin Kiermaier is slowly coming to life with four double-digit scores in his last six games. he’s got a little bit of pop and should be leading off from the left side. The price isn’t egregious yet and I might be in on him, provided he’s leading off like normal. A lot of his metrics look pretty bad because he starter so slow after coming back from injury.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options -Jake Bauers

Secondary Options – Kevin Kiermaier, Joey Wendle

Home Run Pick – Kevin Kiermaier

DFS MLB – Reds at Cardinals

Reds Probable Pitcher – Anthony DeSclafani, RHP 

4.43 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 19.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .210 average, .324 wOBA, 17.2 K rate, 43.8 fly ball rate and 42.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .280 average, .341 wOBA, 21.0 K rate, 35.1 fly ball rate and 48.3 hard hit rate

If there’s a hitter that can make me change my mind about the Bregman/Ramirez combo on FanDuel, Matt Carpenter is that man. DeSclafani is giving up a very low average to lefties but it doesn’t match any other metric, especially his 2.45 HR/9 to lefty hitters this season. Kolten Wong isn’t having the best season but he was batting second yesterday. That’s super appealing for the young lefty and it should be noted that manager Mike Matheny was fired last night. We don’t know what the lineup is going to look like today but Wong is cheap enough it’s not terribly important where he’s batting today. The Cardinals offense will probably be one of the most popular on the board, especially if players pay up for their pitching. There’s cheap value and DeSclafani hasn’t found his way yet.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter, Kolten Wong

Secondary Options – Jose Martinez, Paul DeJong, Marcell Ozuna

Cardinals Probable Starter – Miles Mikolas, RHP 

2.65 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 17.6 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .271 average, .302 wOBA, 15.2 K rate, 29.7 fly ball rate and 38.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .167 average, .195 wOBA, 20.6 K rate, 25.2 fly ball rate and 26.0 hard hit rate

The Reds have some lefties that would interest me as a contrarian option today since Mikolas is significant worse against that side of the plate. Since Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett are the same price, I think I’ll play Gennett. He’s been lights out this season against righty pitching with a .262 ISO.  I love Joey Votto as a hitter, but you can’t pay the premium price for him when he’s not hitting for power. He only has nine home runs on the season and this isn’t a can’t miss spot. Mikolas himself is a little too expensive for me with some of the potential downside of this game. If you wanted to do a Reds stack, include Jesse Winker. He’s been on fire and is maybe finding some consistency this season. I wouldn’t play a single righty, you have to stick with the lefties today. Even then, this isn’t something you’d want to chase in cash games.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Scooter Gennett

Secondary options – Joey Votto, Jesse Winker, Scott Schebler(if active)

Home Run Pick – Kolten Wong

DFS MLB – FanDuel Sample Lineup

P – Joe Musgrove 

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C/1B – Justin Smoak 

2B – Kolten Wong 

3B – Jose Ramirez

SS – Manny Machado 

OF – Tyler Naquin, Gregory Polanco, Dwight Smith Jr./strong>

Utility – Alex Bregman

In honesty, I’m not totally sold on Musgrove. He’s been more solid than most people would think and it’s really going to depend solely on the Milwaukee lineup. If I can keep him in there, everything opens up for the offense. With two cheap punts in the outfield, the money can flow to the rest of the lineup. Smoak stands out too much to leave off if you have the money to get up to him. Wong is cheap but I wouldn’t even consider him a punt with DeSclafani’s numbers. Polanco and Smith Jr standout as really good options, I love our two third baseman in the same lineup  and then we finish things off with Machado waving farewell to Baltimore fans with(hopefully) a couple of home runs.

The Core – One of the elite third baseman, Kolten Wong, Justin Smoak

Pitching to Consider 

High End – Justin Verlander, Trevor Bauer(GPP)

Mid-Range – Joe Musgrove, Patrick Corbin, Julio Teheran

Punts – Enyel De Los Santos

Stacks To Consider – Cleveland Indians, Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays, Pittsburgh Pirates lefties, Washington Nationals

Next: Who should go #1 in your Fantasy Football draft?

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.