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Fantasy Baseball 2018: Does the Home Run Derby affect second half?

By Bill Pivetz

DFS MLB: WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 22 : Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals hits a fifth inning double against the Philadelphia Phillies at Nationals Park on June 22, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
DFS MLB: WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 22 : Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals hits a fifth inning double against the Philadelphia Phillies at Nationals Park on June 22, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /
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Should fantasy baseball owners expect a second-half decline in power from the Home Run Derby participants?

The 2018 Home Run Derby takes place on Monday, June 16. The field may not be as star-studded as years past, but the eight hitters can and most likely will put on a show. However, these extra swings could cause some power regression for fantasy baseball owners in the second half. Should owners be wary of a down final two months from these eight hitters?

The eight participants are Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Freddie Freeman, Kyle Schwarber, Alex Bregman, Max Muncy, Jesus Aguilar and Javier Baez. It’s not an eye-raising group of players but these players have been crushing the ball this season. In order of I mentioned them, they hit 23, 14, 16, 18, 19, 22, 24 and 19 home runs in the first half respectively.

All eight of these players are owned in at least 80 percent of ESPN leagues. If any of them have a bad second half, a lot of fantasy baseball owners will be affected. Let’s look to see how the 2017 participants fared in the second half after the derby.

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Giancarlo Stanton – 26, 33

Aaron Judge – 30, 22

Gary Sanchez – 13, 20

Miguel Sano – 21, 7

Mike Moustakas – 25, 13

Charlie Blackmon – 20, 17

Cody Bellinger – 25, 14

Justin Bour – 20, 5

There were a couple of hitters that performed better, home-run wise, in the second half than the first. There were also a couple of hitters, like Sano and Bour, that didn’t play in a full slate of games in the second half. Judge also came out of hit with a should injury, which is why he isn’t doing it this season.

However, the lack of power performance in the second half may not really exist. First off, the halves are not split evenly. By the time the derby starts, some players will have played almost 100 games, leaving 62 for the second half. Hitters will obviously not hit the same number of homers in the second half like they did in the first.

Before last season’s derby, Mike Petriello of MLB.com wrote a piece claiming the “Home Run Derby Curse” is a myth. Many people focus on the eight hitters in the derby. But, what about the decline from the number of batters that don’t participate in the contest? There’s more evidence of that over the last few seasons.

There are definitely hitters worth selling on because of their amazing first halves. That doesn’t mean you won’t get good performance from them in the second half but just not at the same level.

There are also the hitters that will improve in the second half. I don’t expect Harper to maintain his .214 batting average and .351 wOBA in the second half. Those owners that gave up on him, like the 375 owners that traded him in CBS Sports league, may regret it in August and September.

Next: Who should go #1 in your Fantasy Football draft?

The Home Run Derby is a fun contest, especially with the new format. Do not stress about your fantasy baseball team when Harper, Freeman and the rest are crushing 20 home runs on Monday. If your team’s success rests on the performance of one hitter, you have a few other problems.

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