MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Sunday July 15
Welcome to the Sunday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Well my friends, it is the final MLB DFS slate before the All-Star Break, one last chance to get in your best line-ups before a forced break from our favorite hobby. After last night’s late scratch of DJ LeMahieu I know that a break may be welcome as my tilt level remains strong after seeing that news after lock. Let’s get to it.
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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Starting Pitching Overview:
It looks like we could have some potential weather concerns today with the worst spot looking like Coors Field but considering this is Seattle’s only trip to Colorardo, I wonder if they simply wait it out for a window to play today.
Numerous games will see the risk for rain today. BAL, NYM, BOS, CLE, PIT, ATL and STL all are delay threats (basically at anytime too, very difficult to time) but probably won't be PPD. Arms at risk, bats likely safe. COL: game is a PPD risk (20%) while a delay is likely.
— Mark Paquette; DFS meteorologist (@DFSMLBWeather) July 15, 2018
At the top of the pitching spectrum on today’s Main Slate is Justin Verlander ($26.4K), a pitcher who has not topped 30 fantasy points in 9 straight starts so at first blush my gut instinct was to simply pass but then I looked at the Vegas data. Listen, I do not use Vegas data as a first stop in picking my DFS plays but I do reference it and sometimes data stands out that forces you to pay attention and THIS is one of those times – Verlander is a -350 home favorite against the Tigers and Detroit has a 1.74 projected run total – I cannot even come close to remembering a total that low this season!
Verlander has a 31.4% K rate on the season with 10 K’s in two of his last five starts and on this slate stands out as the obvious SP1 in cash and I wonder if the Coors “risk” will force more ownership towards pitching than it normally would. My initial take – let’s put JV in my lineup and see if I can build a line-up I feel good about.
That brings me to Enyel De Los Santos ($8K) who went 6.1 innings in his debut against the Mets, striking out 6 and giving up 3 ER on his way to 19.45 fantasy points which when you consider his price remains this low and he gets to face the Marlins in Miami, makes the pairing with Verlander something I have a hard time avoiding. De Los Santos in watching that game against the Mets the Mets was quite impressive, going right after hitters but there were spots were his control was an issue – but honestly, it seemed like the home plate umpire was simply not giving him the borderline strikes as opposed to losing his control more egregiously.
The pairing of Verlander and De Los Santos is the ultimate high/low play that leaves you with $8.2K per batter and allows you to go after essentially any offense you want on today’s MLB DFS slate.
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots:
With the weather issues in Coors Field and Tyler Anderson on the hill for the Rockies, I have no issue fading the Mariners here today so my only question is can I fade the Rockies at home against Mike Leake? As scary as it sounds we have Mike Minor pitching in Camden Yards and we await word on whether Chris Tillman will be the opposing starter – if the answer is yes – this game stack of Orioles and Rangers gives me confidence to pivot off Corrs Field.
Mike Minor on the season has a .222 ISO, 46% FB rate and 42% HC rate against right-handed batters and will be asked to face a line-up full of right-handed batters. Minor throws his fastball 47% of the time against RHB and his slider nearly 21% of the time and take a guess who crushes both those pitches – current but not likely future Oriole Manny Machado ($9.4K) who has a .338 ISO against the fastball at 92+ MPH and a .234 ISO against the slider. Danny Valencia ($6.8K) and his .247 ISO against RHP this season makes for one of the best bargain plays on the day when you consider we have hot and humid temperatures in Baltimore with the wind blowing out at 8-9 MPH.
The Rangers side is a bit tougher to lock in on until we have confirmation that Tillman is the starter but if we get that confirmation – I am not sure how you avoid the Rangers bats against a pitcher who is giving up a near .300 ISO to hitters from both sides of the plate. Tillman versus LHB on the season is giving up 51.1% HC rates to LHB specifically so feel free to fire up Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara and Shin-Soo Choo if we get confirmation that Tillman is on the bump.
The Mets/Nationals game may not have a lofty run total (9) but with Corey Oswalt and Jeremy Hellickson on the mound, I have interest in this as an under the radar game stack. Oswalt is giving up a .304 ISO against LHB this season and a 52% FB rate and will face a line-up loaded with left-handed power bats. Oswalt is walking left-handed batters at a near 12% rate and only gets a 6% swinging strike rate so this is a perfect stacking spot for Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Adam Eaton and Matt Adams.
The Mets offense looks to be finally waking up and Hellickson has a .195 ISO rate against LHB this season which matches up well for a Mets stack as bats like Brandon Nimmo and Asdrubal Cabrera both have .240+ ISO marks against RHP this season. Wilmer Flores ($6.4K) is an interesting add-on that will likely get over-looked with a .233 ISO mark against RHP this season if you want to build on to this stack where we will have warm temperatures in Citi Field with 9 MPH winds blowing out.
Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests today across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and enjoy your All-Star Break from MLB DFS. Do not worry though Fantasy CPR will be here each and every day with PGA, NASCAR and WNBA content as well as all your Fantasy Football news and analysis leading you up to draft time!