Unpacking why the Milwaukee Bucks didn’t try to retain Jabari Parker
Why didn’t the Milwaukee Bucks put up more of a fight to retain 2014 No. 2 overall pick Jabari Parker in free agency?
Jabari Parker’s tenure with the Milwaukee Bucks unceremoniously ended Saturday, as the team rescinded his qualifying offer to allow him to sign a two-year, $40 million deal with the Chicago Bulls, according to ESPN.com’s Adrian Wojnarowski.
“Jabari and I felt it was in the best interest of both he and the team to rescind our qualifying offer, making him an unrestricted free agent,” Bucks general manager Jon Horst said in a statement. “We appreciate everything Jabari has brought to our team and our community over the last four years and we wish him well.”
Losing the 2014 No. 2 overall pick without getting anything in return is a painful blow in terms of asset management for the Bucks, but they had reason for going down that path. In essence, they chose between re-signing Parker or rounding out their roster with other free-agent signees, including Ersan Ilyasova and Brook Lopez.
Read More: 76ers miss in their attempt to steal Daryl Morey
The Bucks agreed to sign Ilyasova to a three-year, $21 million deal on the first day of free agency, which immediately put them in a bind with regard to Parker. Since they’re using their non-taxpayer mid-level exception to sign Ilyasova, they’ll be subject to a hard cap this year, which prevents them from exceeding the luxury-tax apron (roughly $129.8 million) at any point this season.
After agreeing to sign Brook Lopez to a one-year, $3.4 million deal using their bi-annual exception, the Bucks already had $116 million in salary on their books, according to ESPN.com’s Bobby Marks, which includes the nonguaranteed contracts of Brandon Jennings ($2.2 million) and Tyler Zeller ($1.9 million). Throw in the unlikely bonuses for Tony Snell and John Henson, and the Bucks only had $8 million in room below the apron following the Lopez deal, Marks reported.
At that point, matching an offer sheet for Parker became virtually impossible for Milwaukee. When the Bucks learned that the Bulls were planning to dole out such a deal, they “agreed to work with Parker and his agent, Mark Bartelstein of Priority Sports & Entertainment, in good faith to help Parker get the kind of terms he was looking for with the Bulls,” according to Matt Velazquez of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
The collective bargaining agreement requires offer sheets to be for at least two years (not including options), so the Bulls couldn’t have structured their proposed contract the way they ultimately did had the Bucks not rescinded his qualifying offer. Instead, Chicago would have been forced to change the second-year team option to a non-guaranteed second year, which would have limited its flexibility with regard to signing him to a long-term deal later.
In essence, the Bucks did both Parker and the Bulls a major solid by rescinding their qualifying offer. While their decision to help out a divisional rival seems strange on the surface, doing right by Parker could engender good will from his agent and others down the road. That’s especially critical for a small-market team like Milwaukee, which isn’t a marquee free-agent destination like the Los Angeles Lakers.
Meanwhile, the Bucks are effectively betting that Ilyasova and Lopez will provide better value at roughly $10 million combined this season than Parker would have at nearly $20 million.
Before Parker went down with his second ACL tear in 2016-17, he had a positive net rating alongside only two Bucks teammates — Jason Terry and Greg Monroe — and was a minus-1.7 in the 1,200-plus minutes he played next to Giannis Antetokounmpo. In each of the past two seasons, Milwaukee had a significantly higher net rating with Parker on the bench (plus-1.8 in 2017-18 and plus-2.9 in 2016-17) compared to when he was on the floor (minus-3.5 in 2017-18 and minus-2.5 in 2016-17).
Though net ratings and plus-minus marks shouldn’t be taken for gospel, the eye test confirms what the stats suggest.
When the Bucks selected Parker at No. 2 overall in 2014, they had no way of knowing that Antetokounmpo would develop into an MVP-caliber superstar. The Greek Freak was fresh off a rookie season in which he averaged only 6.8 points on 41.4 percent shooting, 4.4 rebounds and 1.9 assists in 24.6 minutes per game, and he started in only 23 of his 77 appearances that season. Once it became clear that Antetokounmpo was the cornerstone who they’d need to build their franchise around, the calculus changed for Parker.
Though positional designations mean less than ever these days, both Antetokounmpo and Parker are best suited to play the nominal power forward role. Parker lacks the lateral quickness to fight through screens and guard traditional 3s, while the Bucks need Antetokounmpo’s length closer to the basket so he can help gum up drives and chip in as a weak-side shot-blocker. Unless Parker was willing to embrace a super-sub role à la Manu Ginobili, his long-term fit in Milwaukee became questionable once the Greek Freak developed into a destroyer of worlds.
In Ilyasova and Lopez, the Bucks now have two role players better suited to complement Antetokounmpo. Ilyasova can serve as a catch-and-shoot 3-point threat off the bench, which Milwaukee sorely lacked last season prior to Parker’s return in early February. He’s less capable of creating his own shots than Parker — nearly three-quarters of his shot attempts last season came after no dribbles, compared to only 41.3 percent for Parker — but between Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe and Malcolm Brogdon, the Bucks already have plenty of off-the-dribble playmaking on their roster.
Meanwhile, Lopez has stretched out his shooting range in recent years, having shot 246-of-712 (34.6 percent) from deep over the past two seasons after going 3-of-31 (9.7 percent) over his first eight seasons combined. Seeing as Bucks centers John Henson, Thon Maker and Tyler Zeller combined to shoot 32-of-113 from deep last year (28.3 percent), Lopez’s willingness to let fly on 3-pointers will be a welcome breath of fresh air for Milwaukee. The 30-year-old has never been a prolific rebounder, but the likes of Antetokounmpo, Middleton and Bledsoe can help make up for Lopez’s deficiencies on the glass.
Next: Jayson Tatum and the improvement of young passers
If the Bucks didn’t have $7.4 million in dead salary on their books from waiving and stretching Mirza Teletovic, Spencer Hawes and Larry Sanders, they may have been able to sign both Ilyasova and Lopez while retaining Parker. Alas, their past mistakes forced them into having to choose between a No. 2 overall pick and rounding out their rotation with potential difference-making role players.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Basketball Insiders.