DraftKings MLB Picks July 20: Is Bauer worth the markup?

CINCINNATI, OH – APRIL 15: General view during a rain delay prior to the game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on April 15, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /

DraftKings MLB Picks July 20: Is Bauer worth the markup?

I hope you enjoyed your couple of days off from the grind! However, for those that just couldn’t get enough, there was at least the NBA summer league and the WNBA to get us through. Most of the pitching matchups have been decided for Friday already, so let’s get started! This isn’t a bevy of aces like Opening Day, but we do have quite a bit to choose from!

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So far, rain looks likely in Detroit and Cincinnati. At least in Detroit the rain should move away so we can play after a late start. In Cincy, the chance for a postponement is very high. I’d say there is about a 20% chance of this game actually playing, so I’m not even going to break it down.

Wind is blowing out to left at 12 mph in Washington. There is also a nasty 15 mph wind blowing straight in from center in Detroit, but the winds should calm down once the game gets going after the delayed start. We have a 12 mph wind blowing in in Arlington, but the heat should help the balls fly anyway. There is a strong 16 mph wind blowing out to right in Oakland, but neither team has much left handed power to really capitalize on it.

We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!

These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!

For you first time players, if you would like $20 in free DraftKings dollars, use this link for the referral bonus with your first deposit of $5 or more! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn those DraftKings dollars into more!

Next: DraftKings Pitcher Plays

ANAHEIM, CA – JULY 12: Tyler Skaggs #45 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim pitches during the first inning of a game against the Seattle Mariners at Angel Stadium on July 12, 2018 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Trevor Bauer ($13,600): Bauer picked up 28.8 DraftKings points on the Rangers in the first meeting this year. He still doesn’t have great numbers against the Rangers, but I think this year’s start speaks for itself. Is Bauer worth this much more than everyone else though? It’s hard for me to say yes since there is some serious strikeout potential for far less. That said, Bauer is easily the safest play. He has also struck out 22 Rangers in just 77 at bats.

Tyler Skaggs ($9,400): Skaggs dazzled against the Astros earlier this year, holding them to just four hits over seven shutout innings en route to 22.8 DraftKings points. With a 2.57 ERA on the season, Skaggs is quietly having a great season. Of course, nothing gets by DraftKings. He is priced among the elite on tonight’s slate, and the Astros should give pause to using him, but the Astros are only hitting .210 off of Skaggs in 81 at bats with just one homer and six runs. Skaggs has the great numbers this year and the track record against Houston to make him worth a look on a slate that lacks elite options.

Noah Syndergaard ($9,300): The Yankees only have played one game against Thor, and it wasn’t a good one for them. This is a great offense in a hitter’s park, and Thor may still be on somewhat of a pitch count, but I wouldn’t expect it to be under 90. At any rate, there is serious risk here, but at this price, it’s hard to ignore the strikeout potential. Thor struck out 10 in his only career game against the Yankees. That assures you that you will get a solid point total even if he gives up a few runs.

Kyle Gibson ($8,600): The Royals are hitting a robust .310 off of Gibson with five homers and 24 runs in 210 at bats. So why is he on here? Gibson has a 2.68 ERA in eight career starts at Kauffman Stadium. Gibson also has a 2.84 ERA on the road this year, and picked up 28.2 DraftKings points against the Royals earlier this year. The stats fully support rolling with Gibson in a tasty road matchup.

Middle Tier:

Jake Arrieta ($8,500): Arrieta has dominated at home this year, putting up a 2.53 ERA in nine starts at Citizens Bank Park. On top of that, the current Padres are only 2-27(.074) lifetime against Arrieta with nine strikeouts. This is a pitcher that could perform well above his price against a weak lineup in a place where he has pitched well this year.

Dylan Bundy ($8,400): There is a lot of risk with Bundy, however he has a 3.97 road ERA and allowed only two runs in seven innings en route to 28.2 DraftKings points against the Jays earlier this year. In fact, the Jays are only hitting .170 in 47 at bats against Bundy with two runs and 18 strikeouts. The Break may have done the Jays some good, but I wouldn’t bet on it. This looks like a good place to deploy Bundy.

Nathan Eovaldi ($8,200): I’m not sure what it is about the Trop, but all of the Rays seem to pitch well there. Eovaldi has a 2.46 ERA in his two home starts with 12 strikeouts in 11 innings. Eovaldi only picked up 7.1 DraftKings points in his first outing against the Marlins, but he gave up eight hits and only two runs in that one. If he can limit the baserunners, the strikeout upside is huge and Eovaldi could find himself as a really good bargain. The bad news is that the Marlins have hit him well in his career.

David Price ($8,000): The Tigers offense has been struggling for a while, so for a guy like Price with serious strikeout upside anyway, this could be a great situation for him. Detroit is mostly a pitcher’s park, but that cavernous outfield has been an issue for teams that don’t play good defense. That isn’t the case for Boston. Bradley and Betts are two of the better defensive outfielders in the league. I like Price in this situation despite the decent right handed bats in Detroit’s lineup.

Bargain Pitchers:

German Marquez ($7,400): Marquez racked up 25.3 DraftKings points on Arizona in his last start eight days ago at Coors Field! If he can perform that well at home, where he has a 7.31 ERA this year, a trip to Phoenix should only help. Marquez has a stellar 2.62 ERA in nine road starts. There is serious potential here at a very reasonable price.

Sam Gaviglio ($6,900): You may think I’m nuts, but Gaviglio has a 1.97 ERA in seven home appearances (five starts). He even held his own, giving up one run in 3.1 innings against the Red Sox before the break in Boston. You aren’t going to get a lot of strikeouts or a lot of innings, but the Orioles offense isn’t scaring anyone right now. There is good potential for Gaviglio today even if there is very little upside.

Dereck Rodriguez ($6,600): Rodriguez has pitched well so far in his young career. Oakland wont do much to help the park factor, and they also wont do much to pad his strikeout totals, but Rodriguez should be able to score in the high teens for a very reasonable price.

Wade LeBlanc ($6,200): We pretty much know what we are getting from LeBlanc at this point in his career. He put up a solid 14.9 DraftKings points against the White Sox in Chicago earlier this year despite not lasting five innings. LeBlanc has a 2,88 ERA in eight home starts this year with a 5-0 record. I doubt the White Sox crack that. LeBlanc is a safe, yet unspectacular, play tonight.

Danny Duffy ($6,100): A dreadful first six weeks of the season turned many off of Duffy for good, but he has picked up more than 25 DraftKings points in three of his last four starts. The only one that he didn’t was against Cleveland. One of those was against tonight’s opponent, the Twins. Duffy has 41.4 DraftKings points in two starts against Minnesota this year. Over his career, the Twins are only hitting .255 with a homer and six runs in 141 at bats. Duffy is going to be a very popular pick for this price, but it may be worth eating the chalk.

WASHINGTON, DC – APRIL 06: Adam Eaton #2 of the Washington Nationals celebrates with Bryce Harper #34 after hitting a home run in the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park on April 6, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) /

Washington Nationals vs. Anibal Sanchez:

Sanchez has had a nice season, but the Nationals have always hit Sanchez well. They are hitting .290 with seven homers and 19 runs in just 93 at bats! Wieters and Adam Eaton each have two homers off of Sanchez. Home Run Derby champ Bryce Harper has one. As do Trea Turner and Daniel Murphy. At least one of them are bound to go deep for you in this stack!

Boston Red Sox vs. Matthew Boyd:

The Sox are hitting .283 with three homers and seven runs in 46 at bats against Boyd. Yes, Boston has struggled against some lefties, but they have dominated others. This is one of the others. Betts and Martinez are elite plays with Xander Bogaerts a notch below. Eduardo Nunez is worth a look on the cheap, and Steve Pearce is a lefty killer if he can play. Moreland and Benintendi have also homered off of Boyd in the past, so there are plenty of ways to go with this stack.

Cleveland Indians vs. Martin Perez:

Perez has not allowed a homer to Cleveland yet, but he has allowed nine runs in just 52 at bats. Perez has surrendered ten runs over nine innings in two home starts this year. Ramirez and Lindor are the elite plays as usual, but I like Edwin and Brandon Guyer for a cheaper play. Yan Gomes is on my radar as well.

Colorado Rockies vs. Robbie Ray:

The Rockies’ lackluster history on the road has me backing off a stack, but Robbie Ray has been so bad at home that I may do it anyway. The Rockies are also hitting .346 with 11 homers and 31 runs in only 153 at bats against Ray. Not all of that was at Coors. Blackmon is 15-33(.455) with four homers and 11 RBI, so you need him in there. Trevor Story has two homers against Ray in only 15 at bats. Raimel Tapia, Ian Desmond, Parra, Arenado, and CarGo have all homered off of Ray as well.

FanDuel MLB: ATLANTA, GA – APRIL 03: Freddie Freeman #5 of the Atlanta Braves rounds third base after hitting a three-run homer in the second inning against the Washington Nationals at SunTrust Park on April 3, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Freddie Freeman is a BvP monster against Strasburg. Freeman is 16-45(.356) with four homers and 13 RBI off of Strasburg already. Dansby Swanson, Inciarte, and Markakis have all taken Strasburg deep as well. I understand the allure of Strasburg, especially since he has averaged 29.9 DraftKings points in two starts against the Braves this year. Just keep in mind that Strasburg is making his first start off the DL, and the Braves are hitting .274 off of him in 157 at bats with seven homers and 28 runs. I’m not willing to pay up for Strasburg in this situation. I would rather save and take Thor.

Alex Bregman has the only Astro homer off of Skaggs, but he is just 2-12 lifetime, and more than likely wont be worth the $5,000 price tag. If trying against Skaggs, I would look towards Marwin Gonzalez for a cheap punt.

In other circumstances I make like Rich Hill, but not here. Jesus Aguilar homered off of him last year. You know, before he was leading the NL in home runs anyway. Hill has a 4.55 ERA on the season, so I’m looking for Aguilar, Lorenzo Cain, and Hernan Perez here. Keon Broxton is worth a look as well.

It’s buyer beware with Clayton Richard on Friday. He has good career numbers against the Phillies, but he has also walked more than he has struck out in each of the last three starts. Richard provides a lot of salary relief, but I think I would rather roll the dice with Rhys Hoskins and Carlos Santana here. Richard is still very average, and this is a hitter’s park.

I’m not sure that the Rays lineup is weak enough for me to get all that excited over Dan Straily. C.J. Cron homered off of him in the only game in which he faced him. It’s a small sample size, but the Rays have been better at home, including the offense. Carlos Gomez and Jake Bauers are worth a look at a reasonable price.

There is evidence to suggest that last week’s domination of Arizona by Marquez was a fluke. The team is still hitting .333 with eight homers and 21 runs off of Marquez in only 12 at bats. Paul Goldschmidt has four homers and seven RBI by himself! Owings, Peralta, Ketel Marte, and Jake Lamb have all homered off of Marquez at well. At the very least, Goldschmidt is worth a look for under $5k.

There have been times that I have been all for using Keuchel this year, but it’s only when the stats are right. They are not against the Angels. Trout is 14-41(.341) with two homers and six runs off of him. Maldonado and Kinsler have homered off of Keuchel as well, and both come very cheap.

The Brewers have yet to name a starter, but I’m still on Bellinger, Muncy, and Matt Kemp no matter who they throw out there. Chris Taylor is worth a look as well if they throw a lefty out there.

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Middle Tier:

To me, Domingo German presents a large amount of risk, especially since the Mets hit him pretty well earlier this year. Asdrubal Cabrera hit a two run homer off of German in that one.

Salvador Perez is only 6-38 against Kyle Gibson, but he has homered off of him twice. Mike Moustakas is 11-33 with a homer off of Gibson as well.

If you have an inkling to tempt fate in a GPP by messing with Cincinnati, both Adam Duvall and Billy Hamilton have homered twice off of Jameson Taillon.

Robbie Grossman is the only current Twin to homer off of Danny Duffy, and honestly, is about the only member of that offense that I would even consider tonight. There are plenty of better options lying around.

I still don’t trust the Giants offense enough to stack them against Edwin Jackson, a pitcher they have hit well throughout the years. However, I do want some exposure. McCutchen is the obvious place since he is 16-41(.390) with three homers, nine RBI, and eight walks against Jackson. Panda has homered against Jackson as well, but no one else’s stats stand out enough to get really excited about this.

Bargain Shoppers:

Robinson Chirinos has homered twice off of Trevor Bauer in just five at bats. Ryan Rua and Odor have homered off of him as well.

Kyle Seager is 8-22(.364) with three homers and eight RBI against James Shields, and he is just $3,300! Nelson Cruz has a homer and seven RBI against Shields. Dee Gordon is 6-11, but doesn’t have much to show for it. All Star hero Jean Segura has been good against Shields, but not great. At any rate, you should use Seager at least.

The horribly slumping Jose Abreu is now just $3,400 facing a soft tossing lefty that he has homered off in the past. Is this where he breaks out? Tim Anderson is the better bet if you want someone against LeBlanc.

If you want a good sleeper, Alex Gordon is 13-40(.325) with a homer and five RBI against Kyle Gibson, and he will only set you back $3,100.

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