DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Friday, July 20

Welcome back into the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have the normal 14 game slate to break us back into DFS tonight so let’s go to work!

The All-Star Break was actually kind of fun for once and gave us a nice break from DFS MLB. The Home Run Derby had some drama, which is rare for that event. It’s usually pretty boring since there’s only so many times you can watch a hitter crank batting practice homers but the hometown kid Bryce Harper made it worth while with his epic comeback in the finals. The actual All-Star game saw extra innings and turned into a home run derby on its own, with Houston Astros stars Alex Bregman and George Springer hitting the difference makers.

We’re back in action tonight and we’re continuing to add to the article. One thing were going to add is xwOBA(expected wOBA) against certain pitches. What that means is using Statcast data to try to predict what a hitter’s wOBA “should” be. This will be especially handy when we find pitchers that hammer a particular pitch type. The way we’ll find out how often a pitcher throws a particular pitch to a certain handedness is from Brooks Baseball. It won’t be used every time but we’ll see it here and there. Let’s dig into this slate!

DFS MLB – Braves at Nationals

Braves Probable Starter – Anibal Sanchez, RHP 

2.60 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 23.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .187 average, .270 wOBA, 26.7 K rate, 36.0 fly ball rate and 30.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .211 average, .279 wOBA, 21.1 K rate, 44.4 fly ball rate and 25.2 hard hit rate

Even though it seems weird, at this point Sanchez isn’t someone I’m targeting in a major way. He’s be good through the first half and there’s not much in his metrics that suggest anything he’s been doing is totally unsustainable. He’s giving up a lot of fly balls to righties but they’re not hitting the ball had at all. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if Bryce Harper sits in this one to give him a breather after the All-Star break but if he does play, he’s interesting at $4,200 on FanDuel.  He has an xwOBA of over .400 against right-handed fastballs and change-ups which is 60 percent of the pitches Sanchez throws to lefties. Juan Soto would also be solid. I just don’t know if I’ll wind up having them as my big spends on offensive players. Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner should see four seamers about 40 percent of the time and they mash that pitch, both with an xwOBA of over .450 against it. The higher xwOBA on the slate with at least five at-bats is Daniel Murphy, with a whopping .844 in 14 at-bats against Sanchez.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Juan Soto, Trea Turner

Secondary Options – Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Matt Adams, Daniel Murphy

Nationals Probable Starter – Stephen Strasburg, RHP 

3.46 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 29.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .218 average, .276 wOBA, 24.6 K rate, 28.1 fly ball rate and 28.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .237 average, .313 wOBA, 34.5 K rate, 36.8 fly ball rate and 42.1 hard hit rate

This side of the game is a total steer clear for me. Strasburg has every chance to contain this Braves lineup as he’s been a good bit better against lefties and that’s the way to keep the top of the order quiet. I’d actually be interested in using him if he wasn’t $10,000 after missing a month of action. Even on a pitching slate that’s a bit underwhelming, it just doesn’t make sense to me without knowing how long Strasburg will go. If we get word sometime today that it’s all systems go, he’ll be a rock solid pivot from the ace pitcher at the top of the price range. Regardless of how Strasburg is getting handled, I’m not rushing to pay big money for hitters against him. The top of the lineup should face him at least twice, which leaves them as a fairly unappealing option. Every single main cog in the Atlanta offense has a wOBA under .380 after the first half. That’s a pass for me, although Freddie Freeman does have a pretty good track record against Strasburg in their careers with a .356 average and a .469 wOBA.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies

Home Run Pick – Anthony Rendon

DFS MLB – Mets at Yankees

Mets Probable Starter – Noah Syndergaard, RHP 

2.97 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 27.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .281 average, .315 wOBA, 27.5 K rate, 26.0 fly ball rate and 25.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .233 average, .283 wOBA, 26.8 K rate, 29.8 fly ball rate and 21.1 hard hit rate

If you’re looking for an under the radar(and highly risky) stack, the Yankee lefty hitters with power could be an option. Syndergaard has been very good, but he’s been giving up a little bit more to lefty hitters so far. He’s throwing the sinker 32 percent to lefty hitters and Aaron Hicks has an xwOBA over .500 against that pitch from righty pitchers. Didi Gregorious and Greg Bird also crush that pitch with an identical .415 xwOBA. The best thing is all three of these hitters have an ISO of at least .195, topped out by Bird at .279. It’s important to remember who’s pitching. Syndergaard is one of the best in the majors and if you play it, expect it to fail. If you’re trying to jump towards the top of the leaderboard, it could be a super sneaky way to do it if the Yankees knock Thor around. You can always roll out Aaron Judge at home against a righty with his mark of a .498 wOBA and .390 ISO this season. I’m not pitching Syndergaard in this spot.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Yankees lefty power stack in GPP

Secondary Options – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton

Yankees Probable Starter – Domingo German, RHP 

5.49 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 27.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .240 average, .344 wOBA, 21.1 K rate, 41.7 fly ball rate and 38.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .229 average, .309 wOBA, 32.6 K rate, 35.0 fly ball rate and 39.0 hard hit rate

German is always an interesting pitcher because he has been anything but consistent so far in his young career. While the Mets offense isn’t anything special they are a little bit better against righty pitching and this game is in Yankee Stadium. German has been better against right-handed pitching so far this year but I’m having a hard time not putting Yoenis Cespedes in my lineup for tonight. The strikeout rate is scary but the catch is German is throwing his curveball 40 percent of the time to right-handed hitters. In his limited action this year, Cespedes has a .447 xwOBA against right-handed curves. I still have some interest in Brandon Nimmo as well with his .259 ISO against righty pitching. German has served up a 1.86 HR/9 so far this season.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brandon Nimmo, Yoenis Cespedes

Secondary Options – Michael Conforto, Jose Bautista, Asdrubal Cabrera

Home Run Pick – Yoenis Cespedes

DFS MLB – Padres at Phillies

Padres Probable Starter – Clayton Richard, LHP 

4.43 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 17.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .221 average, .288 wOBA, 19.5 K rate, 7.6 fly ball rate and 32.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .256 average, .330 wOBA, 17.0 K rate, 25.1 fly ball rate and 43.7 hard hit rate

This game has a chance to be a little more of a pitcher’s duel than some might think. The Phillies as a team stink against lefty pitching. They’re in the bottom 10 in average, ISO, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ this season against southpaws. It’s true that they are better at home against the handedness, there still isn’t much that standout. Richard isn’t the craziest play even though I’m not going there personally. Some players might run to Rhys Hoskins since he’s a righty but he’s only carrying a .127 ISO and a .350 wOBA against lefties this year. That’s fine, but not something I’m totally excited about. Since any lefty hitter is out, we’ll need to look elsewhere to see if we like any other hitters. Carlos Santana is cheaper and has a .577 xwOBA against lefty sinkers(in just 10 events) so I would be more likely to play him since Richard throws his sinker about 60 percent of the time.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Carlos Santana, Rhys Hoskins

Phillies Probable Starter – Jake Arrieta, RHP 

3.23 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 17.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .256 average, .318 wOBA, 16.4 K rate, 31.2 fly ball rate and 28.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .229 average, .280 wOBA, 17.5 K rate, 23.9 fly ball rate and 28.5 hard hit rate

Buckle in because I’m not going to say this very often when Arrieta isn’t pitching against the Pirates but he’s a perfectly reasonable option tonight. He saves you $4,200 for the most expensive option and draws a super favorable matchup against the Padres. When they’re on the road against righty pitching, they rank 22nd in average, 29th in OPS and dead last in ISO, wOBA and wRC+. On top of all those putrid numbers, they have the highest strikeout percentage at 26.8. This matchup couldn’t get a lot better for Arrieta as the Padres likely only have one lefty you have to(sort of) worry about and it’s Eric Hosmer. That’s not a reason to avoid a pitcher and I will grudgingly have some shares of Arrieta this evening. I don’t think he has the highest ceiling and would be banking on my hitters to make up the difference.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Eric Hosmer, Travis Jankowski

Home Run Pick – Carlos Santana

DFS MLB – Orioles at Blue Jays

Orioles Probable Starter – Dylan Bundy, RHP 

4.35 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 25.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .305 average, .378 wOBA, 20.4 K rate, 47.1 fly ball rate and 35.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .195 average, .282 wOBA, 31.2 K rate, 45.0 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard hit rate

The splits look just terrible for Bundy and I’m still going to lean lefty hitters but it should be pointed out that he’s given up more homers to righty hitters by a count of 11-9. He can’t keep the ball in the park and I would still rather take my chances with lefties given the much larger wOBA and average. Bundy pounds the four seam fastball to each side of the plate about equally so I want lefty hitters that can hit the four seamer. Kendrys Morales not only has a .212 ISO but has a .492 xwOBA against righty fastballs this year. He’s also just $2,700 which is appealing if you’re paying up at pitcher. The leader on the Blue Jays in ISO and wOBA against righty pitching is actually Dwight Smith with a .313 and .415 mark, respectively. The pitch data is working for him as well with a .429 xwOBA against righty four seamers. I do like Justin Smoak for all the same reasons, but is far more expensive than the other two hitters. This matchup doesn’t look good for Bundy.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Kendrys Morales, Dwight Smith, Justin Smoak

Secondary Options –Curtis Granderson, Yangervis Solarte

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Sam Gaviglio, RHP 

4.58 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 21.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .255 average, .310 wOBA, 14.6 K rate, 38.4 fly ball rate and 31.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .250 average, .340 wOBA, 27.0 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 29.9 hard hit rate

I don’t think Gaviglio is anything special but I’m legitimately going to be interested in pitchers against this Orioles offense frequently in the second half. They weren’t all that good with him and it’s hard to imagine they’ll be better now that he’s in Los Angeles wearing the Dodger blue. Aside from Mark Trumbo, no active Baltimore hitter has an ISO over .195 and the highest wOBA is .318 for Adam Jones. Even with Machado, they ranked no higher than 23rd against righties in average, OPS, ISO, wOBA or wRC+. I can’t get on board playing any of them on such a large slate and Gaviglio being bare minimum for a pitcher on FanDuel is really calling my name. I can fit basically any other hitter I would want.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo

Home Run Pick – Kendrys Morales

DFS MLB – Red Sox at Tigers

Red Sox Probable Starter – David Price, LHP 

4.42 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 24.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .234 average, .330 wOBA, 22.2 K rate, 34.0 fly ball rate and 29.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .248 average, .324 wOBA, 24.6 K rate, 42.9 fly ball rate and 33.1 hard hit rate

In case you don’t remember from the first half, the Tigers lineup rakes against lefty pitching. The number one hitter on my list from this team is Nicholas Castellanos. He checks any box I could ask for. The price is right, he carries a 1.168 OPS, .275 ISO and a massive .448 wOBA against lefties. Then, he rates well in the xwOBA category against the two main pitches that Price uses in the four seam and the sinker. Price is an up and down pitcher so I wouldn’t disagree with a stack in a GPP format. John Hicks and Jeimer Candelario would be next up on the list as the pitch data works for them and they carry rock solid ISO’s and wOBA’s as well. In cash, I think Castellanos would be my only hitter that I would chase. I’m not going to pitch Price because I think there’s a pretty wide range of outcomes in this one.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nicholas Castellanos

Secondary Options – Jeimer Candelario, John Hicks, Niko Goodrum

Tigers Probable Starter – Matthew Boyd, LHP 

4.76 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 21.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .222 average, .291 wOBA, 24.2 K rate, 46.3 fly ball rate and 38.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .225 average, .303 wOBA, 20.1 K rate, 45.5 fly ball rate and 35.2 hard hit rate

If you can want some high-end bats, it’s hard not to love Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. Granted, that’s true of every single slate but it gets even more attractive when they get a lefty. Picking between them is a very difficult choice every night but I think I’m leaning Betts. His ISO is .453 against lefties so far to go along with a .513 wOBA. That’s video game enough but Boyd leans on his four seamer the most of any pitch to righties. Betts has a .561 xwOBA versus the pitch compared to a .381 xwOBA for Martinez. It should be noted that we have the Martinez #RevengeGame but I still like Betts. Steve Pearce is always in play against a lefty because he smacks them around and will hit towards the top of the Boston lineup. Boyd has been a notch better at home but it’s hard to imagine him shutting down the two lefty killers. I might limit my exposure to the Red Sox to just these two hitters. Xander Bogaerts is a little too expensive for my tastes with a .130 ISO and a .319 wOBA this season, although he also crushes lefty four seamers.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Options – Xander Bogaerts

Home Run Pick – Nicholas Castellanos

DFS MLB – Marlins at Rays

Marlins Probable Starter – Dan Straily, RHP 

4.29 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 19.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .254 average, .357 wOBA, 20.2 K rate, 34.3 fly ball rate and 44.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .205 average, .290 wOBA, 18.7 K rate, 42.9 fly ball rate and 44.6 hard hit rate

The Rays offense was probably bummed that baseball had to stop for the All-Star break. They we’re smacking the ball all over the yard in the three games before the break, scoring seven, eight, and 19 runs. Straily has been throwing his four seam a lot and if he throws one to lefty Jake Bauers, it might end up going a long way. Bauers has a .485 xwOBA against the pitch but there is danger in Straily’s changeup. He throws it about 23 percent to lefties and Bauers on has a .291 xwOBA against the change. I’ll take my chances with that pitch data and the fact that Bauers has a .263 ISO and a .386 wOBA against righty pitching so far in his short career. The average might be low but Straily has given up his share of homers to righties so C.J. Cron isn’t the worst play here either. I don’t think the hot steak for the offense will continue to Bauers is the one player that I’d want more than anyone else.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jake Bauers

Secondary Options – C.J. Cron, Kevin Kiermaier

Rays Probable Starter – Nathan Eovaldi, RHP 

4.59 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 22.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .247 average, .315 wOBA, 19.8 K rate, 37.7 fly ball rate and 38.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .196 average, .267 wOBA, 25.0 K rate, 35.5 fly ball rate and 31.6 hard hit rate

Eovaldi and myself still aren’t on speaking terms after he dropped a hideous -13 on me the last time I tried to play him. Bad feelings aside, there are a couple of Marlins that look pretty interesting tonight. The first man on the list might actually be Derek Dietrich. He’s a lefty who mashes the cutter, which makes up about 29 percent of the arsenal to lefties for Eovaldi. Dietrich has an enormous .610 xwOBA against that particular offering and hits the four seam decently as well. Those two pitches makeup 70 percent of the total pitches this year for Eovaldi and Dietrich has a respectable .366 wOBA against righties. Justin Bour doesn’t do well against the cutter but carries a .442 xwOBA against the four seamer. He’s on the wrong side of the splits, but J.T. Realmuto is the best hitter against righty pitching for Miami with a .256 ISO and a .422 wOBA. $3,300 on FanDuel isn’t bad and he always gets overlooked since he’s a catcher.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Derek Dietrich, Justin Bour

Secondary Options – J.T. Realmuto

Home Run Pick – Justin Bour

DFS MLB – Pirates at Reds

Pirates Probable Starter – Jameson Taillon, RHP 

3.91 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 23.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .318 wOBA, 19.1 K rate, 30.2 fly ball rate and 31.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .234 average, .275 wOBA, 27.4 K rate, 31.8 fly ball rate and 31.4 hard hit rate

Taillon has been a lot better since he has started featuring his slider more but I’m a little hesitant here with him. He’s faced the Reds twice this year, once in Cincinnati and once in Pittsburgh. The home game was a complete game shutout but the road game saw him give up six earned through six innings. He’s still leaning on his four seam fastball against lefty hitters at about 40 percent of the time and that’s where the issues might come into play. The main trio of lefties that the Reds have in Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett and Jesse Winker have an xwOBA of at least .342(Gennett) all the way up to .514 for Votto. I do think Votto is going to hit for a little more power in the second half than we saw in the first and $4,100 isn’t the worst price for him. You can consider righty Eugenio Suarez just from the park factor alone and all four of these hitters wreck sinkers. Taillon throws that pitch between 21 and 26 percent of the time. This is a dangerous spot for Taillon.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Secondary Options – Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez

Reds Probable Starter – Tyler Mahle, RHP 

4.02 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 22.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .276 average, .402 wOBA, 23.1 K rate, 45.5 fly ball rate and 45.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .243 average, .269 wOBA, 21.4 K rate, 28.3 fly ball rate and 36.3 hard hit rate

I assumed the way to attack cash games on this slate was pay for the ace and use cheap Pirates lefties to fill in some spots. Sure, it might be chalk but so be it. I have to give FanDuel a little credit because many of the Buccos lefties that I want are priced high enough it’s not just an auto-play. Mahle pounds fastballs over 60 percent this year and the player that stands out n that respect is Colin Moran with his .458 xwOBA. He’s also the cheapest way to get a piece of the Pirates offense and does fit perfectly with my initial play. The park helps Moran too who isn’t exactly known for his power but he does have a very low 14.6 strikeout rate. I do like Corey Dickerson and Gregory Polanco but they are at a point that makes me a little squeamish. Starling Marte is in play but would only be a part of a Pirates stack for me. He does have the BvP data in his favor in nine at-bats.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Gregory Polanco, Colin Moran, Corey Dickerson

Secondary Options – Starling Marte

Home Run Pick – Gregory Polanco

DFS MLB – Indians at Rangers

Indians Probable Starter – Trevor Bauer, RHP 

2.24 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 31.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .192 average, .249 wOBA, 31.5 K rate, 35.1 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .220 average, .267 wOBA, 31.3 K rate, 35.4 fly ball rate and 36.3 hard hit rate

This game might be one of the main events of the evening and Bauer is likely going to be my pitcher of choice in cash. There’s been plenty of cheap enough bats to fit him in comfortably so far and he should make short work of this Texas order. They have the fourth highest strikeout rate against righties in baseball and in his last 10 games, nine have been at least eight strikeouts. The lone outlier came against the Yankees so I’m not holding that one against him in any major way. You normally worry about the power Texas has but Bauer has given up a grand total of six home runs over the course of 136.1 innings pitched this year. I’m not on any Texas hitters this evening.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Rangers Probable Starter – Martin Perez, LHP 

7.67 ERA, 2.05 WHIP and 11.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .280 average, .320 wOBA, 14.8 K rate, 25.0 fly ball rate and 28.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .375 average, .457 wOBA, 11.0 K rate, 34.1 fly ball rate and 47.3 hard hit rate

If I told you there was a hitter that had a higher ISO, similar wOBA and OPS against lefties that Francisco Lindor does but cost you $2,200 less, you’d be interested right? Well let me present you to Yan Gomes, who is dirt cheap and has produced very close to Lindor’s numbers in 40 fewer at-bats. He does strikeout more but the ISO is a huge advantage, .268 to .220 for Lindor. Brandon Guyer also hits lefties at a really solid clip and has some pop. He’s minimum priced again and batted fifth in the lineup before the break. I would likely go Lindor over Jose Ramirez because Lindor is better against lefties if I could only play one. Perez is so bad that I think any Indians hitter is in play and they might be the offense of the night. I might even consider Edwin Encarnacion even though he has a .190 average and just three measly home runs against lefties this year.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Francisco Lindor, Yan Gomes, Jose Ramirez, Brandon Guyer

Secondary Options – Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion

Home Run Pick – Yan Gomes

DFS MLB – Dodgers at Brewers

Dodgers Probable Starter – Rich Hill, LHP 

4.55 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 24.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .184 average, .267 wOBA, 21.0 K rate, 36.1 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .278 average, .370 wOBA, 26.0 K rate, 42.6 fly ball rate and 52.5 hard hit rate

If the Cleveland offense was one of the prime ones on the evening, this game might just be the game stack you want to chase down. Hill does have strikeout upside but he’s also getting hit really hard by righty hitters and the Brewers have some that could crush him. However, the Brewers are beat up right now and are missing a couple hitters that I would want to play. As for the active players, there are two that really catch my eye. I ever so slightly prefer Lorenzo Cain because he is cheaper and carries a higher wOBA and OPS than Jesus Aguilar. That’s not to say that Aguilar isn’t a great play but I think Cain is going to be a better fit with Bauer. Having Jonathan Villar and Ryan Braun on the disabled list hurts the Brewers lineup and you could craft and argument that Hill could be in play. I would just much rather play Arrieta at the same price.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Lorenzo Cain, Jesus Aguilar

Secondary Options – Hernan Perez

Brewers Probable Starter – Wade Miley, LHP 

2.38 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 18.0 strikeout rate(11.1 IP)

Vs LHH – .000 average, .207 wOBA, 0.0 K rate, 28.6 fly ball rate and 57.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .235 average, .298 wOBA, 22.5 K rate, 24.0 fly ball rate and 48.0 hard hit rate

Miley has a lot of metrics that make it seem like he’s just pitching with smoke and mirrors right now and this new look Dodger lineup might be the most popular stack on the night. Manny Machado will be in the Dodgers uniform for the first time and is certainly at a reasonable price of just $4,200. He has a .482 xwOBA against the four seam and the cut fastball which is what Miley is going to throw quite a bit. I definitely don’t have any issue with him. Hitters like Matt Kemp, Justin Turner, Kiki Hernandez and even Max Muncy would be fine. I want to see exactly how this lineup shakes out with Machado now but the Dodgers righties are going to be very popular.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Targets – Manny Machado, Matt Kemp, Kiki Hernadez(if leading off)

Secondary Targets – Chris Taylor(if active), Justin Turner

Home Run Pick –  Manny Machado

DFS MLB – Twins at Royals

Twins Probable Starter – Kyle Gibson, RHP 

3.42 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 23.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .237 average, .291 wOBA, 22.2 K rate, 33.6 fly ball rate and 39.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .210 average, .293 wOBA, 24.9 K rate, 28.7 fly ball rate and 36.1 hard hit rate

I’m not sure where I want to go with Gibson this evening. I don’t think this side of the game is going to have a lot of appeal. I don’t want to use Gibson because I think he’s too pricey given the pitching options around him and the Royals have one of the best strikeout rates in the league. There just doesn’t seem to be much of a ceiling here. The flip side is that I don’t trust the Royals offense as Gibson has been pretty solid so far this year. On a slate so big, I think you take your chances with the lefties of Mike Moustakas or Lucas Duda in tournaments and leave this one alone.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Mike Moustakas, Lucas Duda

Royals Probable Starter – Danny Duffy, LHP 

4.59 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 20.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .256 average, .276 wOBA, 19.5 K rate, 36.1 fly ball rate and 37.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .253 average, .345 wOBA, 20.7 K rate, 45.7 fly ball rate and 38.1 hard hit rate

Duffy is going to be pretty popular tonight, especially on two pitcher sites. I can’t really blame anyone either because he’s pitched well against this offense recently. Players who look at the game logs will just see his results and play him. The Twins have a lot of lefties and the only hitter that I might go with is Brain Dozier. He was starting to show some signs of life before the break and he hits lefties fine even through his struggles with a .334 wOBA. $3,700 on FanDuel isn’t that bad of a price and I definitely have a little bit of interest.  I’ll be honest, this game really doesn’t move the needle for me. I will have little to no ownership other than Duffy and Dozier so I’m sure the teams will combine for 15+ runs in this spot.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite options – None

Secondary Options – Brian Dozier

Home Run Pick – Lucas Duda

DFS MLB – Giants at A’s

Giants Probable Starter – Dereck Rodriguez, RHP 

2.89 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 18.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .256 average, .329 wOBA, 16.7 K rate, 38.5 fly ball rate and 44.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .240 average, .288 wOBA, 20.4 K rate, 28.9 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

This is another kind of very bland game and my ownership will be limited. I don’t see Rodriguez having enough upside to warrant playing against an A’s offense that does have some power. Matt Olson is my favorite out of the A’s since he’s a power lefty and Rodriguez doesn’t miss lefty bats. He throws a variety of pitches to lefties so the pitch data isn’t especially helpful. Olson has the second highest ISO on the squad behind only Khris Davis. The splits lead us to side with Olson and if you’re not missing his bat constantly, he’s going to eventually place a ball a very log way away from where it started. Jed Lowrie should be back in action and if he fits in on my team, that’s great. I’m not re-arranging things to fit him in, even though he does lead the A’s in wOBA against righty pitching at .383. Stephen Piscotty was scorching hot before the break and at only $2,800, it could be worth finding out if he still is.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Olson, Khris Davis

Secondary Options – Jed Lowrie, Stephen Piscotty

A’s Probable Starter – TBA 

As of this writing, a starter isn’t listed from what I can see. The Giants are usually pretty easy to go over. If it’s a lefty, you go for Nick Hundley and Andrew McCutchen. If it’s not, Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford rate well against right pitching. That may seem sort of weak advice but there’s not much we can do without a starter. The Giants offense isn’t anything to write home about and should really only be used if the matchup is simply too good to pass. We’ll see who gets the nod for the A’s before we go any further.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – TBA

Secondary Options – TBA

Home Run Pick – Matt Olson

DFS MLB – Rockies at Diamondbacks

Rockies Probable Starter – German Marquez, RHP 

4.81 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 23.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .281 average, .345 wOBA, 18.1 K rate, 35.7 fly ball rate and 32.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .231 average, .316 wOBA, 30.2 K rate, 25.6 fly ball rate and 36.7 hard hit rate

Marquez is definitely a pitcher that experiences some pretty sharp splits between his home and road starts. Still, he’s giving up home runs to lefties regardless of what park he’s in and Jake Lamb and Daniel Descalso are both extremely affordable tonight if you’re playing Bauer. Even though he hasn’t been too good this year, $2,800 for Jake Lamb is screaming at me. I think this could be a spot where it’s worth moving off of Colin Moran. Daniel Descalso continues to be highly productive against righty pitching with a .362 wOBA and a .213 ISO this year. Paul Goldschmidt has some weird BvP thing going on here and in 22 at-bats, he’s hit four bombs and has a .671 xwOBA against Marquez. I don’t think I’ll use Goldy in cash tonight but he’d be a fun tournament option.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jake Lamb, Daniel Descalso

Secondary Options -Paul Goldschmidt

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Robbie Ray, LHP 

5.03 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 34.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .150 average, .255 wOBA, 37.8 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 34.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH -.269 average, .370 wOBA, 33.1 K rate, 48.6 fly ball rate and 50.6 hard hit rate

Even knowing his ceiling is legitimately 60+ points every time he pitches, I’m not going near Robbie Ray. Against lefties away from Coors, the Rockies are about league average in a lot of categories for the offense. Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story have to be in consideration against any lefty and Arenado demolishes lefty pitching with a wOBA over .500. $4,300 is incredibly cheap even though the floor is very low as well. Lefty Charlie Blackmon also has owned Ray in their career encounters. Blackmon owns a .564 wOBA in their 33 at-bats. It’s one of those baseball stats that you can’t really explain, it’s just one of those fluky things. This side of the game is GPP only for me. If Ray is on, there’s nothing he can’t do on the mound. If he’s not, he’s likely to get drilled by this spry offense. You could also throw in Ian Desmond if you wanted to get bold and really stack this side.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nolan Arenado

Secondary Options – Trevor Story, Ian Desmond, Charlie Blackmon

Home Run Pick – Nolan Arenado

DFS MLB – Astros at Angels

Astros Probable Starter – Dallas Keuchel, LHP 

3.75 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 17.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .298 average, .334 wOBA, 20.9 K rate, 12.3 fly ball rate and 24.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .247 average, .297 wOBA, 17.0 K rate, 26.3 fly ball rate and 28.6 hard hit rate

You pretty much know exactly what you’re going to get with Keuchel and it’s him trying to induce a groundball on about every single hitter. There’s really only three hitters that have my attention in this spot. The first is Mike Trout because Mike Trout. I don’t think there needs to be much more of a reason but he does have a .289 ISO and a .452 wOBA against lefties this season. I always like Andrelton Simmons with his contact ability and Keuchel doesn’t strike out nearly enough hitters for me to worry about him in this spot. The last one is Jefry Marte as a punt play because he has a whopping .276 ISO against lefties this year. Keuchel hasn’t been good enough to escape unscathed in this one.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mike Trout, Jefry Marte

Secondary Options – Andrelton Simmons

Angels Probable Starter – Tyler Skaggs, LHP 

2.57 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 26.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .200 average, .227 wOBA, 29.4 K rate, 37.7 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .258 average, .313 wOBA, 25.0 K rate, 30.4 fly ball rate and 37.8 hard hit rate

Skaggs has been excellent this season but he’s in a bad spot tonight with the top four of the Houston lineup. All four of the normal top four hitters(George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel) have an xwOBA of at least .352 against the four seem and curve, which is 66 percent of the pitches Skaggs throws to righty hitters. Every one is between $3,100 for Gurriel and $4,300 for Bregman so you could stack the top four here pretty easily. You can’t do it comfortably with Bauer but if you took Arrieta or even Gaviglio, you could get pieces of the Astros and plenty of other offenses. You can play Evan Gattis or Max Stassi but they wouldn’t be a priority for me this evening. Bregman was so whit hot before the break I’d roll with him as my favorite play fro the Astros lineup.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Alex Bregman, George Springer

Secondary Options – Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel, Max Stassi, Evan Gattis

Home Run Pick – Jose Altuve

DFS MLB – White Sox at Mariners

White Sox Probable Starter – James Shields, RHP 

4.43 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 17.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .190 average, .278 wOBA, 17.8 K rate, 41.5 fly ball rate and 30.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .267 average, .330 wOBA, 16.4 K rate, 44.0 fly ball rate and 36.5 hard hit rate

It was a weird first half for Shields. He was always Mr Reliable and we could count on him getting smacked by lefties. That hasn’t worked out this year and I wonder if that corrects itself in the second half. For now, I would just stay in your lane from this game. Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger and Nelson Cruz. All three of these players are tightly packed together by the xwOBA measure, wOBA and ISO. When it’s like that and the pricing is close, I’m leaning towards playing Segura. His position is harder to fill and he could steal a base which would be a huge help. He’s right behind Lindor and Machado as my favorite plays at shortstop and it’ll just depend on roster construction as to where I land.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elitte Options – Mitch Haniger, Nelson Cruz, Jean Segura

Secondary Options – Ryon Healy

Marlins Probable Starter – Wade LeBlanc, LHP 

3.63 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 18.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .296 average, .366 wOBA, 15.1 K rate, 46.6 fly ball rate and 29.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .234 average, .287 wOBA, 19.1 K rate, 41.4 fly ball rate and 30.2 hard hit rate

Tim Anderson should lead off and he’s a fine play with stolen base upside of his own but I think I’d rather find the money for other options. Yoan Moncada is awful against lefties and Jose Abreu had a very ho-hum first half. I want to see if Avasil Garcia is able to return to the lineup tonight. He has a .421 wOBA against lefties in just 33 at-bats but he would change this game in a major way. The White Sox are top 10 in strikeout rate so you can play LeBlanc if Avisail Garcia is back. Still, I’m having a very hard time coming off Gaviglio in his price range. Chicago just does’t have anyone I’m too jazzed up about playing tonight because their offense isn’t very good at all.

White Sox hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Tim Anderson, Avisail Garcia(if active)

Secondary Options – Jose Abreu, Matt Davidson

Home Run Pick –  Nelson Cruz

DFS MLB – FanDuel Sample Lineup

P – Trevor Bauer 

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C/1B – Kendrys Morales

2B – Daniel Descalso

3B – Jake Lamb

SS – Jean Segura

OF – Brandon Guyer, Yoenis Cespedes, Lorenzo Cain 

Utility – Yan Gomes

As is the case for most large slates, I’m leaving off a few plays I really want to make. The biggest question today is do you go with Bauer in cash or take the chance on Gaviglio? I’ll likely stay with Bauer since I’ve been getting burned lately. We have two super cheap Indians hitters to find a way to get a piece of that offense. We also double dipped with Lamb and Descalso, which makes a lot of sense against Marquez at their price point. Cespedes is too cheap for his upside and I feel like Cain might go very overlooked. That’s a lot easier to swallow if he doesn’t do well, unlike Nathan Eovaldi the last time I played him. There’s really a lot of high-end offenses in wonderful spots tonight. I don’t think I’ll have Bauer at all in tournaments and I’m still internally warring with myself about cash games.

Pitchers to Consider 

Elite Options – Trevor Bauer, Noah Syndergaard(GPP)

Mid-Range Options – Jake Arrieta, Rich Hill, Jameson Taillon, Danny Duffy

Punts – Sam Gaviglio, Wade LeBlanc

Stacks To Consider – New York Game Stack, Toronto Blue Jays lefties, Pittsburgh Pirates or Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros

Next: MLB DFS Picks and Pivots for Friday July 20

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.