Unpopular fantasy football opinions: Derek Carr finishes 2018 a QB1
‘Are you out of your mind?’
‘This ought to be good.’
‘You can’t be serious!’
Yes, I am, yes it is and again, yes I am.
Welcome to the second installment of what I like to call, Unpopular Fantasy Opinions. In my last article, I tackled why Derrick Henry will be an RB1 this season. Click here to see that article.
Today’s article takes a look at my man-crush, Derek Carr, who is:
- Still 27 years old
- Had near back-to-back 4,000-yard passing seasons in 2015 and 2016
- Seems to have some stability at the offensive coordinator position for the first time in his career
- Has a Head Coach with a Super Bowl ring who appears to have the same affinity for Carr as I
As if those aren’t enough reasons, I’ll toss in a few more along the way as I plead my case for Oakland Raider/Soon to be Vegas Raider savior, Derek Carr, as a QB1 in 2018.
Guess who’s back?
When I inserted the above header, I said it with Dr. Dre in mind of course.
Now that we have that settled, let’s take a dive into why Jon Gruden is the guy for Carr to go far. (see what I did there….nvm).
Gruden has a Super Bowl pedigree and on top of it nine years away from the game during which time he spent breaking down film and getting to know the nuances of the modern-day NFL. It’s not as if the guy doesn’t know what he’s talking about.
Chucky himself breaks down incoming NFL QB prospects year-to-year for ESPN. During Gruden’s QB Camp, he breaks down game film with the signal callers, helping them see what they can improve on and answer any questions they may have.
Gruden even broke down his soon-to-be quarterback, Derek Carr, in his camp when he was coming into the league from Fresno State.
Obviously, I am a Raiders fan. If you look at the banner on my Twitter account (@TheEthanLillard), you can see I don’t try to hide it. With that being said, there is one quote from the interview above that should give everyone in the league goosebumps.
During Gruden’s QB Camp with Carr in 2014, he started to talk with Carr about his older brother, and former NFL quarterback, David Carr.
Gruden tried to put Carr in a corner and force him to say whether he would draft himself or his brother if he were an NFL GM.
Below is part of the conversation that made me feel like Carr and Gruden are going to work well together and made me feel like I had just discovered an easter egg that could change the perception of those Carr haters out there.
Gruden: “You’re not like him at all. You’re in a totally different offense in a totally different era and you’re position playing style is totally different. Now, I want you. What do you say about that?”
Carr: “I appreciate that. Let’s go win some championships now.”
Just win baby.
It’s obvious why Gruden said he wanted Carr. Look at the dude’s college resume:
- Ranked 9th in single-season passing yards in NCAA history
- Ranked 21st in all-time passing yards in NCAA history
- Two-time MWC Offensive Player of the Year
- Led the entire nation in passing yards his senior season
- Led the entire nation in passing touchdowns his senior season
- Ranked sixth in the nation in completion percentage his senior season despite throwing the second most pass attempts in the entire nation
That’s not including what he’s been able to do as a pro, going to three-straight pro bowls and throwing for at least 20 touchdowns in every season.
Derek Carr – Looking at the numbers
Gruden immediately turned around the Raiders during his first season in 1998. Oakland went from a 4-12 team to an 8-8 team during Gruden’s first year at the helm. The Raiders also went from ranking 28th in plays from scrimmage to seventh in Gruden’s first year. During Gruden’s time in Oakland, the Raiders never ranked worse than 14th in plays run from scrimmage.
What makes predicting Carr’s future with Gruden so hard is Gruden’s lack of ever having an elite quarterback.
Rich Gannon was arguably the best quarterback to ever play under Chucky.
That’s right, I’m going to take it all the way back to the days of Gannon. During Gruden’s second year as the Head Coach of the Raiders, the franchise acquired the seasoned vet. It was just what the doctor (Dr. Davis) prescribed.
With Gannon behind center, the Raiders went from ranking 21st in the league in total passing yards to 11th. They also went from ranking 28th in completion percentage to 9th. Gruden was more than happy to use his quarterback when he had one.
Gruden’s best season with the Silver and Black came during his last season with the team in 2000 when he went 12-4 (tied for the best record of his career). During that season, the Raiders continued to rank in the top half of the league in completion percentage.
Gruden is coming into a Raiders team in 2018 that ranked 30th in plays from scrimmage, 16th in passing yards and were 15th in completion percentage last season.
With Amari Cooper healthy and Derek Carr eager to bounce back, expect the Raiders’ numbers to improve much like the 1997 Raiders did. Expect a minimum of an 8-8 season.
Derek Carr – Offensive Weapons
Amari Cooper, Jordy Nelson, Martavis Bryant, Marshawn Lynch and Jared Cook – Not a bad offense at all. As a matter of fact, some argue it’s the best group of skill position players Carr has played with in his NFL career.
They may not be wrong.
Cooper is coming off a terrible season that has some doubting what he will look like in 2018. However, Cooper was dealing with ankle issues for most of 2018, while his quarterback dealt with a back injury from week 4 on.
Carr also went on to say that Amari battled injuries all season.
— Eddie Borsilli (@Borsilli) February 16, 2018
"He would never say it to you but I'll say it to you to have his back. That man was out there giving anything he could and honestly, a lot of guys probably wouldn't have played with what he had"
Already there are rumblings that Cooper has been getting dinged up in camp. Cooper skirted any concerns, saying in an article by ESPN’s Paul Gutierrez: “Every player is hurt every year … So that’s not really an excuse for everything. I’ve been hurt every year I played football.”
It’s clear whenever Cooper experiences some set backs to his health, he is going to stomach the pain and play every week he possibly can.
Cooper just turned 24 years old in June, he can still recover from injuries.
The addition of Nelson was clearly a move to provide Cooper with a positive mentor (possibly why they removed the controversial Michael Crabtree) and somebody who could show the Alabama product how to take care of his body and be a professional for years to come.
Yes, Jordy has his own set of injuries, but Cooper was right when he said everyone is hurt at times. It’s part of the game.
I’ll take Jordy at his advanced age. Along with it comes four 1,000-yard receiving seasons and numerous all-pro nominations. It also helps that he played with the best quarterback in the league, so he may have a thing or two he can show Carr on becoming one of the best.
On top of all of this, Gruden’s track record with receivers is outstanding. From 1998 to 2008, Gruden had a receiver record either a top 10 finishes in receptions or receiving yards five times (Tim Brown twice, Keenan McCardell once, Joey Galloway once and Antonio Bryant once.)
Other than 2006 and 2007, the worse finish for a Gruden coached receiver in terms of receptions was 24th. Other than those two down years in 06 and 07, the worse finish for a Gruden coached receiver in terms of total yards was 20th.
Way back in March, Gruden was already drawing parallels between Cooper and his former Hall of Fame receiver, Tim Brown. During Brown’s time with Gruden here is how he ranked among NFL wide receivers:
- 98 – 10th in receptions, 20th in total yards
- 99 – 4th in receptions, 5th in yards
- 00 – 22nd in receptions, 17th in yards
- 01 – 11th in receptions, 11th in yards
Lets also keep in mind when Gruden took over for the Raiders, Brown was entering his 11th season in the league. Cooper is entering his fourth season and has plenty of tread left on the tires.
Then you take a look at the tight end position. Gruden has already raved this offseason about Cook and how he moves. Cook led the team with 688 receiving yards last season on 54 receptions.
Lynch led the team in rushing with 891 yards and seven scores on 207 rushing attempts. Lynch is likely going to be rejuvenated after being somewhat limited in carries and knowing his career is about to end.
According to an article by John Breech of CBS Sports, it seems Gruden wants Lynch all in or not at all in 2018:
“We need the real deal,” Gruden said. “If you’re going to put those letters on the back of your jersey, man, you’ve got to back it up, Marshawn – right? We don’t need another back, we need a feature back.”
With Lynch’s mentality, he is going to be all in. With a healthy run game comes more open looks for Carr in an offense that will air the ball out.
Derek Carr – Expectations
I’m going to go back to Marshawn Lynch here because it is interesting to look at Derek Carr’s numbers compared to how his lead back has produced.
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Over the course of Carr’s four-year career, the Raiders have produced a 1,000-yard running back just once, Latavius Murray in 2015. In 2015, Carr threw for 3,987 yards and 32 touchdown passes, both career highs. Gruden wanting to squeeze the remaining juice (or skittles) out of Lynch will pan well for Carr’s numbers and the Raiders’ offense as a whole.
Gruden was signed to a $100 million contract for a reason.
Some may point to Gruden’s lifetime 95-81 record and be unimpressed. Some may point to his 06 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their 4-12 record and say that could easily be the Raiders’ in 2018
Well, I choose to point to the Super Bowl ring on Gruden’s hand. Not all coaches have one of those. Not all coaches own six seasons of .500 football or better, including two seasons at 12-4.
It’s obvious Gruden loves Carr. From what I’ve witnessed, it’s obvious Carr wants to be great and is ready to take that leap. The real questions are things every franchise has to deal with from time to time:
Can everyone stay healthy?
Will everyone be receptive to their new head coach’s style?
Will everyone buy in and be on board to turn things around?
How will results in the early part of the season reflect play later on in the season?
Time is the only thing that can truly answer these questions at the moment, but with everything Carr and Gruden have shown throughout their respective careers, the Raiders appear to be headed to their former glory.
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