Jaime Munguia will prove he’s no one-hit wonder against Liam Smith
Jaime Munguia has one impressive victory on his record. He will show that he’s no one-hit wonder when he defends his title against Liam “Beefy” Smith.
Jaime Munguia (29-0, 25 KOs) is a super welterweight who’s on the rise. He has all the makings of an emerging star. He’s massive for the division, he possesses innate knockout power, and he’s young at 21 years old. However, his substance and legitimacy are questionable. Munguia hopes to address those questions when he defends his WBO title against Liam “Beefy” Smith (26-1-1,14 KOs).
Smith is the toughest challenge of Munguia’s five-year career and that’s part of the problem. Munguia was largely unknown until he emphatically stopped Sadam Ali in May by TKO in four rounds. Ali was defending his WBO super welterweight title for the first time after he beat the legend, Miguel Cotto. Ali was in trouble from the opening bell.
Munguia dropped Ali twice in round one and once in round two. The referee mercifully stopped the fight in the fourth after Ali was dropped for the fourth time. Munguia captivated boxing fans and pundits with his dominance over Ali and his destructive punching power. He had one stellar performance, but can he do it again?
Little is known about Munguia. His professional record is well documented, but his amateur experience is a mystery. Munguia has only fought three times in the U.S. in 29 fights. His bout against Smith on Saturday, July 21, will be his fourth fight in the states. All of Munguia’s other matches have taken place in his home country of Mexico.
Other than Ali, the next best opponent on Munguia’s record is arguably Johnny Navarrete, whom he beat twice. Navarrete has a record of 31-13-2, with 13 KOs. He’s rated the 312th best welterweight in the world by Boxrec.com. That’s pretty weak opposition.
Smith is Munguia’s second notable opponent. Smith once held the WBO title that Munguia currently occupies. He won it in 2015 with a seventh-round TKO stoppage of John Thompson. Smith defended the title twice before getting knocked out by Canelo Alvarez in 2016. He lasted nine rounds with Alvarez but was completely overmatched. Smith was knocked down a total of three times in the fight.
Smith comes from a boxing family. His three brothers are all professional boxers, including former title contender Paul Smith and highly rated super middleweight Callum Smith.
At this stage in Munguia’s career, Smith is the perfect test. He’s a respectable battle-tested veteran who’s a former champion. A win over Smith gives Munguia added credibility as a top super welterweight. He’s a step above Ali, but a step below a top-tier super welterweight. Smith is a B-level boxer.
Smith’s style is perfect for Munguia. He’s not afraid to trade punches and his defense is limited. Smith keeps his hands in a high guard. He tries to absorb his opponents’ punches instead of avoiding them. That’s going to be a costly mistake against Munguia.
Munguia is a power puncher with a KO rating of 86 percent. His hands are slow for a super welterweight, but the force of his punches make up for his lack of speed. Munguia’s still learning and he also has some holes in his defense.
Ali landed cleanly on Munguia when he threw combinations, but he couldn’t handle Munguia’s offense in return. Smith can take a better punch than Ali, which should make this bout more competitive and enjoyable to watch than Munguia’s outing against Ali.
Unfortunately for Smith, he lacks knockout power. His KO rating is 50 percent. If he tries to trade with Munguia, he’s going to take the lion’s share of the damage. He’ll try to mix it up with Munguia early but will retreat once he feels Munguia’s power. Look for Smith to backpedal for the second half of the fight.
Munguia’s never been 12 rounds. He’s only gone 10 rounds once in his career. Smith’s best chance of winning is to hope Munguia tires in the later rounds. He will likely try to out-box him at that point.
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Munguia will try to knock out Smith early, but I think he’ll find Smith to be a durable opponent. Look for this fight to go the distance. I think Munguia’s size and power will make Smith docile for 12 rounds. He should win by a one-sided unanimous decision. If Munguia does this, then he proves to the world that he’s a legitimate force to be reckoned with.