DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Saturday, July 21

Welcome into the Saturday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown!  We have a nice 11 game slate this evening so let’s dig right in!

It was great to be back in action last night and it would have been even better had Trevor Bauer given us more than 21 DFS MLB points. Even though Sam Gaviglio was horrendously mismanaged at the end of his start and the Toronto bullpen blew his win, he still outscored Bauer at minimum price. Like I said, I’m happy that sort of tilt and unpredictability is back in my life on a nightly basis. We have a big evening slate tonight so let’s get moving!

DFS MLB – Braves at Nationals

Braves Probable Starter – Sean Newcomb, LHP 

3.51 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 22.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .188 average, .318 wOBA, 22.5 K rate, 37.3 fly ball rate and 37.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .218 average, .286 wOBA, 22.1 K rate, 34.5 fly ball rate and 30.7 hard hit rate

This is a very interesting spot all the way around. Newcomb has seen his price drop all the way down to $7,000 but that actually isn’t that surprising. The last time he had eight strikeouts or more? May 2nd. That’s a really long time and maybe the break recharged him a bit and he does get some lefties which he’s been a little better against. The couple hitters that really interest me are Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto. Rendon is always on the radar when he faces off against a lefty and he’s smacking them around this year with a .411 wOBA and a .308 ISO. The crazy part is that the wOBA doesn’t even lead the team because Soto is on top with a .468 mark. The ISO isn’t that far behind either as it’s .286. The pith data looks really good for Soto as well. Newcomb pounds fastballs to either side of the plate and Soto has an xwOBA of .595 against lefty fastballs. He likely won’t be owned either.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmermann(if active)

Secondary Options – Bryce Harper, Trea Turner

Nationals Probable Starter – Gio Gonzalez, LHP 

3.72 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 21.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .205 average, .242 wOBA, 30.5 K rate, 34.6 fly ball rate and 25.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .265 average, .340 wOBA, 19.1 K rate, 29.1 fly ball rate and 31.1 hard hit rate

Gonzalez has been up and down this year and I’d definitely head towards the righty hitters tonight if I’m playing against him. There’s some cheaper options as well, with Tyler Flowers at $2,500 and Ronald Acuna at $3,000. Flowers really stands out as the best option maybe of the entire Braves team. He has a .555 wOBA and .298 ISO against lefty pitching so far and nobody will play him on FanDuel since he’s a catcher. He also carries a .482 xwOBA against the main three pitches Gonzalez throws to righty hitters. Acuna responded to a move to the leadoff spot and is coming off a monster game of 49.1 fantasy points. Ozzie Albies is an option but did leave last night’s game due to a hamstring injury. He’ll carry a bit more risk than normal this evening.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Tyler Flowers/Kurt Suzuki, Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies(if active)

Secondary Options – Freddie Freeman

Home Run Pick – Juan Soto

DFS MLB – Padres at Phillies

Padres Probable Starter – Luis Perdomo, RHP 

7.55 ERA, 2.10 WHIP and 16.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .364 average, .441 wOBA, 13.5 K rate, 26.2 fly ball rate and 41.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .317 average, .360 wOBA, 20.6 K rate, 31.1fly ball rate and 39.1 hard hit rate

I may have completely whiffed on calling this game a pitcher’s deal yesterday but I won’t need to worry about making that mistake. Philly gets the gas can known as Luis Perdomo and he throws his sinker an awful lot. I played Carlos Santana yesterday and might be right back on board tonight. His price is still the same and he destroys righty sinkers to the tune of a .677 xwOBA against that particular pitch. It worked out well yesterday when looking at that data and Perdomo has been getting crushed by lefty bats. You can really go full out with Phillies here. None of their big hitters are priced over $3,300 so they’re all easy to fit. Santana and Odubel Herrera are my favorites but if you wanted to add in some others, Cesar Hernandez and Rhys Hoskins profile well with wOBA’s over .340 and Hoskins carrying a nice ISO of .224.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Carlos Santana, Odubel Herrera

Secondary Options – Cesar Hernadez, Rhys Hoskins

Phillies Probable Starter – Vince Velasquez, RHP 

4.39 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 27.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .237 average, .339 wOBA, 26.3 K rate, 46.3 fly ball rate and 33.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .221 average, .279 wOBA, 29.4 K rate, 41.0 fly ball rate and 30.9 hard hit rate

Well, the Padres and Phillies made me look like a big chucklehead yesterday after I said it would be a pitching duel and they hit double digits in runs by around 8pm. I’m sorry if you listened to that one, but if it makes you feel any better, I gave myself the Spongebob Squarepants treatment on Twitter –

As I’m still licking my wounds from that blow up, I still think Velasquez could be a great GPP option tonight. He’s a lot better against righties and the Padres only have one that concerns you with power and that’s Eric Hosmer. Even then, he’s not a big masher. I refuse to be scared of this Padres team that doesn’t have a hitter with a wOBA over .360 or an ISO over .218(both of which belong to Wil Myers). I’m firing up Velasquez and targeting the Padres lineup again.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Eric Hosmer, Travis Jankowski

Home Run Pick – Carlos Santana goes back to back days

DFS MLB – Dodgers at Brewers

Dodgers Probable Starter – Clayton Kershaw, LHP 

2.74 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 25.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .258 average, .302 wOBA, 26.5 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 39.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .217 average, .272 wOBA, 25.3 K rate, 27.7 fly ball rate and 31.1 hard hit rate

Now we’re getting to some of the good pitchers on this slate. I’m at least intrigued by Kershaw tonight. With Ryan Braun and Jonathan Villar being on the disabled list, the Brewers lineup takes a step backwards. If Kershaw can contain Lorenzo Cain and Jesus Aguilar(no mean feat right now), whoo else in the lineup worries you? Hernan Perez? Tyler Saladino? Not so much. Now, Cain and Aguilar have been excellent against lefties so far. the both have an ISO of at least .270 and a wOBA of at least .444. They also carry a decent xwOBA against the slider and fastball from lefties, which are the two pitches Kershaw uses the most. Still, Kershaw is under $11,000. He has to be in consideration. His last start was encouraging from a strikeout perspective, even though he gave up three earned runs. At a guess, I would say Kershaw should be a good against the grain option. I’m not sure people are willing to pay for him yet.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary options – Jesus Aguilar, Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich

Brewers Probable Starter – Chase Anderson, RHP 

3.78 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 19.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .200 average, .294 wOBA, 19.1 K rate, 42.1 fly ball rate and 35.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .234 average, .326 wOBA, 19.1 K rate, 43.1 fly ball rate and 37.6 hard hit rate

This one is a little weird as Anderson has been solid but does display reverse split tendencies. The Dodgers haven’t been too good to me lately as far as stacking and Anderson has been solid if unspectacular this season. Max Muncy does feel a little too cheap right now, sitting under $4,000. He has a .390 xwOBA against the pitch mix for Anderson and has a massive .327 ISO against righty pitching. I might be giving him a look even though he’s on the wrong side if the splits. Joc Pederson is also over .300 in the ISO department so there’s plenty of options with the Dodgers again tonight. I don’t think I’m stacking them up tonight so I’ll probably miss out on their 20 run explosion.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Max Muncy, Joc Pederson

Secondary Options – Manny Machado, Cody Bellinger, Matt Kemp

Home Run Pick – Max Muncy

DFS MLB – Pirates at Reds

Pirates Probable Starter – Nick Kingham, RHP 

4.26 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 23.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .258 average, .361 wOBA, 16.2 K rate, 42.5 fly ball rate and 35.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .198 average, .257 wOBA, 31.5 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 35.8 hard hit rate

Joey Votto will be back in the lineup tonight and he’s always a great play against the Pirates. Most of their starters are worse against lefties and throw some type of fastball an awful lot. For that reason, it’s pretty much the trio we highlighted yesterday and that’s the aforementioned Votto, Scooter Gennett and Jesse Winker. The cheapest of those three is Winker and he’s got great peripherals. It’s only a matter of time before we Winker starts really showing the results. He also has a xwOBA of .415 and is way cheaper than Votto. I’m not going to chase Eugenio Suarez tonight with the strikeout rate that Kingham carries against righty hitters. We didn’t get to see what kind of ownership to expect from this game last night because the weather was so poor, it went un-owned. There’s an argument to be made to game stack the lefties for both teams tonight.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Joey Votto, Jesse Winker, Scooter Gennett

Secondary Options -None

Reds Probable Starter – Anthony DeSclafani, RHP 

5.32 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 18.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .221 average, .355 wOBA, 17.2 K rate, 47.1 fly ball rate and 44.3 hard hit rat e

Vs RHH – .282 average, .336 wOBA, 20.7 K rate, 33.8 fly ball rate and 50.0 hard hit rate

Don’t let the average given up to lefties fool you, DeSclafani has been getting crushed by lefty hitters. His HR/9 to lefties is an egregious 3.13 which is massive. I want at least one of the Bucco lefties tonight and possibly more. Gregory Polanco has a .257 ISO against righties even though he has struggled this season. I also don’t mind Colin Moran as a cheap third base option since this ball park is a launching pad. Corey Dickerson is fine as well but I’d play Polanco over him for only $200 more. Like I said, this game stack of lefties looks really fun. I wouldn’t pull that one in cash but it’s a perfectly viable plan of attack in a GPP and one I’ll likely do. It’s not like DeSclafani has been fooling righty hitters either so don’t be afraid of putting Starling Marte in a stack.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Gregory Polanco, Colin Moran

Secondary Options – Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson

Home Run Pick – Jesse Winker

DFS MLB – Astros at Angels

Astros Probable Starter – Justin Verlander, RHP 

2.29 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 32.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .179 average, .266 wOBA, 34.5 K rate, 56.8 fly ball rate and 26.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .185 average, .229 wOBA, 20.8 K rate, 54.5 fly ball rate and 30.4 hard hit rate

This side is pretty easy as I’m not going to take too many Angels. I do think Mike Trout is a fine tournament play for a few reasons. First, Verlander strikes out righties at a significantly lower rate. The big righty for Houston does have the BvP data in his favor but that could change at any time. Also, with the amount of fly balls he gives up, there’s a chance Trout makes good contact and takes it out of the yard. The price discount makes it an interesting(still expensive) against the grain play for GPP’s. I love taking Trout in at least one lineup when you know he won’t be chalky because Mike Trout is the GOAT. He can drop a 40 point game any night of the week. I don’t know if Verlander is going to be my ace of choice tonight since we do have some other options.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Mike Trout(GPP)

Angels Probable Starter – Nick Tropeano, RHP 

4.83 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 19.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .297 average, .355 wOBA, 17.3 K rate, 35.4 fly ball rate and 43.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .226 average, .334 wOBA, 21.9 K rate, 51.9 fly ball rate and 44.2 hard hit rate

I’ll take all the Josh Reddick tonight, please. The pitch data is just alright and his wOBA and ISO against righties don’t look wildly impressive but Tropeano is a pitcher getting smacked by lefties with an ERA approaching 5.00. Reddick also is only going to cost you $2,700 and should easily fit into any type of lineup you want to build. On the higher end, Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve both have an xwOBA over .400 against the pitches that Tropeano throws. Houston is always dangerous against any mediocre pitcher. It’s worth point out that other than the hitter we’ve highlighted, the highest wOBA of any other active hitter is Tony Kemp at .359. I’ll probably just sprinkle in Astros here and there rather than going nuts with a full stack.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Josh Reddick, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman

Secondary Options – Kyle Tucker, Evan Gattis, Tony Kemp

Home Run Pick – Mike Trout

DFS MLB  Twins at Royals

Twins Probable Starter – Lance Lynn, RHP 

5.22 ERA, 1.65 WHIP and 21.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .296 average, .387 wOBA, 14.0 K rate, 20.3 fly ball rate and 39.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .249 average, .318 wOBA, 27.0 K rate, 29.3 fly ball rate and 34.7 hard hit rate

Lynn has been fairly awful this year but it’s not like the Royals offense has been much better. I really am only looking at two hitters here and they’re both lefties. Mike Moustakas has the better BvP record by a lot but Lucas Duda has the higher xwOBA against righty fastballs and sinkers, which is around 77 percent of the pitches Lynn throws to lefties. Duda might be cheaper but Moustakas has the higher ISO by .070 points and carries a significantly lower strikeout rate. I would have been interested in Adalberto Mondesi but he is on family leave, unfortunately. Hopefully everything works out for him the best it can.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mike Moustakas, Lucas Duda

Secondary Options –Alex Gordon

Royals Probable Starter – Jakob Junis, RHP 

5.13 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 20.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .260 average, .343 wOBA, 17.2 K rate, 45.0 fly ball rate and 41.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .251 average, .345 wOBA. 24.1 K rate, 40.6 fly ball rate and 42.6 hard hit rate

I’m very torn here with Junis. He’s leading baseball in giving up home runs, which is never great. I was ready to just roll out a couple of Twins and maybe that’s still the way to go tonight but a lot of the big name hitters for Minnesota don’t line up well against righty sliders. Junis throws that pitch a lot and it’s reason to at least be a little hesitant. Eddie Rosario has the highest xwOBA out of himself, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar and Jorge Polanco but it’s only .327. That’s not something that makes me jam him in tonight. I would bet Junis is going to give up a bomb or two but I don’t know where it’s going to come from. My best guess is Brian Dozier but it’s hard to get on board when Max Muncy plays that spot and is $100 cheaper. Junis has also given up double the amount of home runs at home than away, so this spot is very tough to figure.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brain Dozier, Eddie Rosario

Secondary Options – Jorge Polanco, Eduardo Escobar

home Run Pick – Mike Moustakas

DFS MLB – Cardinals at Cubs

Cardinals Probable starter – John Gant, RHP 

3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 20.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .179 average, .257 wOBA, 19.5 K rate, 37.0 fly ball rate and 56.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .182 average, .245 wOBA, 22.7 K rate, 37.5 fly ball rate and 24.6 hard hit rate

The hard hit rate to lefties really jumps off the page for Gant. The average looks fine but his strikeout rate does drop and some of the lefties for Chicago might have a good night this evening. It’s hard to not like Kyle Schwarber and his .294 ISO against righty pitching. The xwOBA against the pitch mix is also .396 which is nothing to sneer at. Ian Happ and Jason Heyward are fine as well because they’re both switch hitters so they should stay in the whole game. Javier Baez has a .276 ISO against righties so far this year but unless that wind is blowing out at Wrigley, the hard hit rate to righty hitters is hard to look past.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ

Secondary Options – Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant

Cubs Probable Starter – Mike Montgomery, LHP 

3.91 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 15.0 strikes rate

Vs LHH – .258 average, .309 wOBA, 17.6 K rate, 22.4 fly ball rate and 29.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .241 average, .292 wOBA, 13.6 K rate, 32.1 fly ball rate and 30.1 hard hit rate

Matt Carpenter is just white- hot right now and Montgomery is reverse splits on the season. That’s a little less than ideal because Carpenter has a wOBA of .360 and an ISO of .250 against the handedness. We have to look at Jedd Gyorko next because he just beats up lefty pitching with a wOBA of .426 and an ISO of .281. He might be a limited chance sample size but it’s one I’m taking the risk on. Harrison Bader would be a fine cheap/punt option that provides a little bit of pop and can swipe a bag on top of that.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter, Jedd Gyorko

Secondary Options – Harrison Bader, Jose Martinez

Home Run Pick – Kyle Schwarber

DFS MLB – Indians at Rangers

Indians Probable Starter – Carlos Carrasco, RHP 

4.12 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 26.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .259 average, .325 wOBA, 27.6 K rate, 35.8 fly ball rate and 35.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .237 average, .279 wOBA, 25.8 K rate, 35.8 fly ball rate and 36.9 hard hit rate

I don’t understand what Carlos Carrasco is doing to continually be priced so high. His ERA is over 4.00 and he’s coming off a game where he scored 15 points. He’s sitting at $9,700. I’m going to pass on that but I also don’t think I want to many lefties from Texas either. Maybe you could turn to Shin-soo Choo with his .417 wOBA and .257 ISO against righty pitching but at $3,400, I’m likely turning elsewhere. I typically like my hitters to be over .350 wOBA and at least .180 ISO unless they’re going to give me some stolen bases or something else. Nobody on Texas looks like they’ll fit into that mold tonight. A lefty stack of Choo, Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor and maybe Joey Gallo isn’t the worst idea in GPP’s even if I won’t do it myself.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options -Shin-soo Choo

Rangers Probable Starter – Bartolo Colon, RHP 

4.64 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 14.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .259 average, .312 wOBA, 13.4 K rate, 34.0 fly ball rate and 39.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .267 average, .349 wOBA, 14.4 K rate, 32.8 fly ball rate and 43.8 hard hit rate

We have everyone’s favorite big man on the mound tonight and in case you missed it, the guys on the CPR staff have a new crew shirt –

If you wouldn’t rock that as a baseball fan, I don’t know what else I can say to you. I’m hard pressed to believe that Big Sexy has any real chance of holding this Indians offense in check. If you told me you’re playing anyone out of the lineup tonight, it would make sense. It’s an all kids in the pool type of spot with MVP candidate Jose Ramirez and his .371 ISO against righties leading the charge. Colon pitches to contact and relies on the other team to make the outs for him. Good luck with that against Cleveland.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Anyone you wan to play, depending on the lineup

Secondary Options – See above

Home Run Pick – Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion

DFS MLB – Rockies at Diamondbacks

Rockies Probable Starter – Kyle Freeland, LHP 

3.11 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 19.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .218 average, .278 wOBA, 27.6 K rate, 34.2 fly ball rate and 29.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .239 average, .305 wOBA, 16.4 K rate, 34.7 fly ball rate and 30.2 hard hit rate

This matchup last night went full-scale bonkers, with the teams scoring 21 runs combined. Freeland has been weirdly worse on the road and I’ll definitely have a share or two of Paul Goldschmidt. He is the lefty destroyer on the Diamondbacks with a huge .320 ISO and a .438 wOBA against southpaws this year. A.J. Pollock and Ketel Marte are almost identical form that respect against lefties and Marte is $800 cheaper. He also strikes out far less so don’t overlook him tonight. I missed the offensive fireworks to some extent last night but I’m ready for them tonight.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Paul Goldschmidt, Ketel Marte, A.J. Pollock

Secondary Options – John Ryan Murphy, Daniel Descalso, Nick Ahmed

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Zack Godley, RHP 

4.61 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 22.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .265 average, .343 wOBA, 20.9 K rate, 22.7 fly ball rate and 35.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .257 average, .327 wOBA, 24.8 K rate, 33.1 fly ball rate and 38.2 hard hit rate

Playing hitters like Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Areando is never a bad idea, especially when they aren’t priced through the roof in Coors Field. Blackmon is a little ahead in ISO and wOBA against right-handed pitching but Arenado holds the advantage in xwOBA against the sinker/curveball combo that Godley leans on, .491 to .361. I don’t expect another 21 runs tonight but neither one of these pitchers is in a spectacular spot. I normally don’t target many Rockies hitters on the road because many of them aren’t nearly as good outside their home park. I wouldn’t blame you if you took a shot at Trevor Story, who has shown a little more consistent play this year. He’s pricey, but his .245 ISO only trails Blackmon on the team this year and his xwOBA data looks better than Blackmon as well.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado

Secondary Options – Trevor Story

Home Run Pick – Ketel Marte

DFS MLB – Giants at A’s

Giants Probable Starter – Madison Bumgarner, LHP 

2.90 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 19.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .121 average, .170 wOBA, 30.6 K rate, 28.6 fly ball rate and 18.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .242 average, .309 wOBA, 17.4 K rate, 36.5 fly ball rate and 40.2 hard hit rate

We’ve come to my pitcher of choice tonight. MadBum has been worse on the road this season but one of those starts came in Colorado and two came when he was still working his way back into form. The Oakland offense has major home/road splits, being worse in their huge ballpark. The strikeout rate against lefties is fourth highest in baseball at home and they rank no higher than 17th in average, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. The 17th mark in ISO is the outlier as every other category is flirting with bottom five in the league at best. Bumgarner is cheaper than any other high-end option tonight as an added bonus.

A’s Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

A’s Probable Starter – Trevor Cahill, RHP 

3.10 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 24.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .200 average, .242 wOBA, 25.6 K rate, 25.5 fly ball rate and 37.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .219 average, .296 wOBA, 23.6 K rate, 22.9 fly ball rate and 45.1 hard hit rate

In 28 innings pitched, Cahill has an ERA under 0.70 at home this season. I’m hard pressed to find reasons to deploy hitters against him, especially with Brandon Belt being on paternity leave. All of his underlying numbers look pretty good for a roundballer and there’s very little upside to be taken here. Cahill is actually a solid GPP option and I’ll be looking to just about any other game for my offensive players this evening. I don’t want it to be a cop-out, there’s just no reason to bore you with possible reasons to play hitters that I will not have rostered in any format.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – I really think this is the pitcher’s duel of the night

DFS MLB – White Sox at Mariners

White Sox Probable Starter – Dylan Covey, RHP 

5.69 ERA, 1.64 WHIP and 16.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .301 average, .365 wOBA, 18.3 K rate, 28.4 fly ball rate and 39.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .269 average, .307 wOBA, 15.0 K rate, 21.8 fly ball rate and 34.5 hard hit rate

Man, the wheels really came off for Covey headed into the break and this is a late night hammer spot to be sure. The Mariners offense is in a great spot and their top four hitters in the order all have an xwOBA of at least .361 against righty sinkers. Mitch Haniger is all the way up over .500 and is firmly in play. Dee Gordon and Jean Segura could be lethal on the base paths, as they both have swiped at least eight bags against righty pitching. Nelson Cruz at home is always a fine investment, though I do tend to favor him against lefties. Denard Span is a nice cheap option with some upside as well. Unless Covey figured some things out during the break, this could be a long night for him.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Top four in the order

Secondary Options – Denard Span, Kyle Seager

Mariners Probable Starter – Felix Hernandez, RHP 

5.13 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 18.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .242 average, .350 wOBA, 20.6 K rate, 42.3 fly ball rate and 38.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .272 average, .326 wOBA, 17.4 K rate, 27.6 fly ball rate and 40.2 hard hit rate

I likely won’t play him, but Hernandez could have a lot worse matchup in his first game back from the disabled list. Chicago’s offense just isn’t very good and the strikeout upside might actually be there for Hernandez, as they strike out at the fourth highest rate in baseball against righties. I would stick to the better hitters the White Sox do have in Yoan Moncada and maybe a Jose Abreu. This spot isn’t appealing as I think the crafty veteran pitcher might have a decent night.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu

Home Run Pick – Denard Span

DFS MLB – Sample Lineup

P – Madison Bumgarner 

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C/1B – Carlos Santana

2B – Dee Gordon

3B – Jose Ramirez

SS- Yairo Munoz

OF – Gregory Polanco, Josh Reddick, Ronald Acuna

Utility – Ketel Marte 

Once we lock in Bumgarner, there’s still plenty of room to build a pretty balanced offense. Even with a high spend of Ramirez, a punt of Munoz at the shortstop position makes everything a little easier to work. Santana is in the same spot he was yesterday against a sinker heavy pitcher, Gordon should be able to get on base against Covey and then hopefully he steals a bag or two. Our outfield has some nice bargains in it and then the last man in is Marte, who mashes lefty pitching.

Pitching to Consider 

Elite Options – Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Madison Bumgarner

Mid-Range Options – Vince Velasquez, Felix Hernadez

Punt – Trevor Cahill

Stacks to Consider – Pittsburgh and Cincinnati game stack, Philadelphia Phillies, Cleveland Indians, Seattle Mariners, Rockies and Diamondbacks game stack

Next: NASCAR DFS Picks on FanDuel and DraftKings

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.