DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Sunday, July 22
Welcome into the Sunday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have eight games this afternoon so let’s get moving!
Daily fantasy baseball is a fickle beast some days. You think you put together a solid cash DFS MLB lineup and then you realize you were two players off from making money. We were on the Pirates lefties but played Gregory Polanco instead of Corey Dickerson. It was hard to not like the Indians, but Edwin Encarnacion got massively outscored by Yonder Alonso. This two players were about a 70 point swing and was really the main reason we missed. It’s always a weird and frustrating night when the cash lines are higher in 50/50 than they are in tournaments. Let’s turn our attention to today and hope we don’t get burned like that again.
DFS MLB – Orioles at Blue Jays
Orioles Probable Starter – Andrew Cashner, RHP
4.56 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 18.3 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .260 average, .355 wOBA, 21.7 K rate, 40.7 fly ball rate and 32.2 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .293 average, .361 wOBA, 14.9 K rate, 30.7 fly ball rate and 30.9 hard hit rate
Cashner is coming of the disabled list to make this start but reportedly will not have any restrictions other than he’s just not that good of a pitcher. Both Curtis Granderson and Justin Smoak will be hitting lefty against Cashner and they have an xwOBA over .400 against the two main pitches Cashner throws to lefties. Smoak is way more expensive but has a significantly higher ISO and strikeout less. From the right side of the plate, Randal Grichuk could be the way to go. He’s carrying almost an identical ISO that Smoak does at .270 and Cashner has shown reverse split tendencies. It’s an extremely small sample size(eight pitches) but Grichuk has a .508 xwOBA against Cashner’s main pitches to righties. $2,900 is pretty easy to fit in with any budget. I would probably side with Grichuk over Teoscar Hernandez and save the $500 in salary.
Blue Jays Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Justin Smoak, Randal Grichuk
Secondary Options – Curtis Granderson, Teoscar Hernandez
Blue Jays Probable Starter – J.A. Happ, LHP
4.29 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 26.5 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .177 average, .227 wOBA, 28.6 K rate, 24.6 fly ball rate and 27.1 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .241 average, .318 wOBA, 26.0 K rate, 43.6 fly ball rate and 30.9 hard hit rate
Happ’s numbers against righties don’t look too promising but he’s actually in consideration for me today. There’s only two active hitters for the Orioles that rate well against lefties and thats Tim Beckham and Danny Valencia. Past that, no other hitter has a wOBA over .300 or an ISO .191. That’s a hard sell for me, even on a smaller slate. You can punt with Beckham at the shortstop position because he does have a .363 wOBA against lefties this year and Valencia is always one of my go-to’s when there is a lefty pitching. Against Happ’s pitch mix, Valencia does have a .408 xwOBA and carries a .232 ISO into today’s matchup. At just $2,400, he’s fine to take a chance on if you’re paying up for one of the expensive options on the slate today. The Baltimore offense just ins’t anything to write home about and I don’t even hate using Happ as a cash pitcher. If you want some more offense and pay down at pitcher, Happ is the way to go.
Orioles Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Dany Valencia
Secondary Options – Tim Beckham
Home Run Pick – Randal Grichuk
DFS MLB – Red Sox at Tigers
Red Sox Probable Starter – Chris Sale, LHP
2.23 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 37.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .159 average, .191 wOBA, 39.8 K rate, 26.7 fly ball rate and 21.3 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .188 average, .254 wOBA, 36.7 K rate, 38.8 fly ball rate and 27.8 hard hit rate
If you have been reading this article for any length of time, you know I pound the table for Tigers when they face off against a lefty pitcher. That’s great and all, but Chris Sale is not of this Earth. Regardless of how good a team or player is against lefty pitching, this game is about playing the best odds you can. Attacking Sale is about the worst odds you can get and I won’t have any Tigers today.
Tigers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – None
Tiger Probable Starter – Blaine Hardy, LHP
3.31 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 18.3 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .190 average, .267 wOBA, 12.9 K rate, 40.8 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .273 average, .325 wOBA, 20.4 K rate, 41.2 fly ball rate and 35.9 hard hit rate
The main three components to the Red Sox lineup against lefties are all in play today. While he is expensive in a vacuum, Steve Pearce is the cheapest of the trio of Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez and himself. Keeping in mind that it’s only been 15 at-bats with Boston, Pearce has a 1.600 OPS, .500 ISO and .645 wOBA. In addition, Pearce has a .537 xwOBA against the main pitch mix for Hardy. None of this is to say that Betts and Martinez aren’t elite plays in and of themselves. They’ve got a much longer track record of crushing lefties and Hardy doesn’t look like he’s anything special at the major league level. After a slow start to the season against lefties, Martinez has his wOBA up to .388 and Betts is at .496 over 94 at-bats. These three look like a great stacking option if you have the salary to comfortably pull it off.
Red Sox Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Steve Pearce
Secondary Options – Xander Bogaerts
Home Run Pick – Steve Pearce
DFS MLB – Marlins at Rays
Marlins Probable Starter – Trevor Richards, RHP
4.74 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 20.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .205 average, .276 wOBA, 22.1 K rate, 40.7 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .328 average, .401 wOBA, 18.9 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 50.5 hard hit rate
Richards has shown some massive reverse splits so far and I wouldn’t mind trying to hammer that side of the plate if we can. I really wish that Wilson Ramos wasn’t on the disabled list because he’s one of the few bats that has power against righties. The other hitter that has a good ISO(.225) is C.J. Cron. I wish he was a little cheaper but he also has a .433 xwOBA against righty fastballs. Richards throws his four seamer 60 percent of the time. Hitters like Matt Duffy and Daniel Robertson are fine plays since Richards isn’t a good pitcher. My biggest issue with them is they have a .103 and .107 ISO respectively and the park isn’t going to do them any favors. If you fit in a Rays righty hitter, it’s not a bad play. I would just be using them as a lineup filler, not core plays.
Rays Hitters to Target
Elite Options – C.J. Cron
Secondary Options – Matt Duffy(if active), Daniel Robertson
Rays Probable Starter – Chris Archer, RHP
4.29 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 24.0 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .291 average, .360 wOBA, 19.3 K rate, 31.4 fly ball rate and 40.3 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .244 average, .301 wOBA, 28.0 K rate, 34.4 fly ball rate and 42.6 hard hit rate
The Marlins are always a pain when I think about using a pitcher against them. This does set up well for what Archer does because he’s better against righties. There’s only one lefty that has the power that really has to scare you and Justin Bour is a perfect GPP option today. He’s a bit boom or bust but he has a .409 xwOBA against righty sliders and fastballs, which Archer throws 77 percent of the time. Derek Dietrich shapes up well but may lack the power to make it worth your while, even in the face of his recent double dong night. J.T. Realmuto is the best hitter for Miami against righty pitching but I’m not sure I would use him today. Archer has been up and down all year but his last start before the All-Star game showed signs of promise. He’s a good strikeout pitcher when things are going right and is worth a dice roll in GPP’s today.
Marlins Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Justin Bour(GPP)
Secondary Options – Derek Dietrich, J.T. Realmuto
Home Run Pick – C.J. Cron
DFS MLB – Pirates at Reds
Pirates Probable Starter – Ivan Nova, RHP
4.38 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 18.0 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .299 average, .367 wOBA, 12.1 K rate, 39.8 fly ball rate and 33.7 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .246 average, .316 wOBA, 24.2 K rate, 27.2 fly ball rate and 35.1 hard hit rate
This side of the game is one of my favorites of the slate. Nova is spectacularly average but he gets beat up by lefties. That’s a terrible fit when you’re facing the Reds offense in Cincinnati and two lefties are in the top eight of xwOBA’s on the entire slate. Joey Votto has owned Nova through their careers and this might be one of the times you can use him even with the lack of power so far this year. He’s just a hair under $4,000 and he should smash in this spot. Through nine at-bats, Jesse Winker has two home runs and the second highest xwOBA of any player at .626. He’s really recovered after a slow start and has his wOBA up at .388 overall on the season. The price hasn’t reflected that as he’s just $3,000 today. Eugenio Suarez can be thrown into a Reds stack as he has the highest ISO on the team against righty pitching at .249. This is a dangerous spot for Nova and I don’t think he gets out of this one without getting touched up.
Reds Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Joey Votto, Jesse Winker, Scooter Gennett
Secondary Options – Eugenio Suarez
Reds Probable Starter – Matt Harvey, RHP
4.63 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 17.7 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .269 average, .348 wOBA, 16.6 K rate, 41.4 fly ball rate and 42.0 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .249 average, .299 wOBA, 18.8 K rate, 29.2 fly ball rate and 35.1 hard hit rate
I think a lot of players are going to run towards the Pirates lefties today after they paid off last night. I’m not sure I’m going to be with them that much. The last time Harvey gave up more than three earned runs in any start was June 8th. His velocity has been up and the Reds are getting some usable innings from him. The Pirates have also been scoring at will in Cincinnati and that just means they’re one game closer to letting you fantasy squad down. Gregory Polanco, Corey Dickerson and Colin Moran are all fine but Moran is the only one that stands out against righty fastballs. He has a .476 xwOBA against the pitch and he’s plenty cheap so he might be my choice. The metrics don’t look sparkling for Harvey but I don’t think he’s going to be the gas can that others might today.
Pirates Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Colin Moran
Secondary Options – Gregory Polanco, Corey Dickerson
Home Run Pick – Joey Votto
DFS MLB – Braves at Nationals
Braves Probable Starter – Mike Foltynewicz, RHP
2.66 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 28.9 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .173 average, .283 wOBA, 27.6 K rate, 38.3 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .209 average, .259 wOBA, 30.2 K rate, 32.8 fly ball rate and 35.7 hard hit rate
We’ll need to make sure that these pitchers are the ones who will actually pitch today. This game got postponed yesterday and the team websites have Foltynewicz listed as the starter, meaning they would have skipped Sean Newcomb. I have plenty of respect for Foltynewicz and what he’s been doing this season. He’s really shut down lefties so if you want to play the Nationals, You might want to look at Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon. I personally won’t have very much of the offensive players in this game. Rendon does have a .213 ISO but turner carries the stolen base upside. They would still be treated better as GPP options since Foltynewicz is striking out righties over 30 percent of the time.
Nationals Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner
Nationals Probable Starter – Max Scherzer, RHP
2.41 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 34.5 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .192 average, .270 wOBA, 32.0 K rate, 50.9 fly ball rate and 26.5 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .165 average, .236 wOBA, 37.4 K rate, 47.1 fly ball rate and 37.0 hard hit rate
It’s kind of the same deal as Foltynewicz here. Make sure Scherzer is the one pitching but if he is, he could be a good high end pivot off of Chris Sale. Scherzer had shown that he is a mortal in his last three starts before the All-Star break, giving up three earned runs twice and four earned runs another time. As long as Scherzer is on the mound, I won’t play hitters against him in cash. You could argue that the Braves lefties would be a contrarian GPP stack but that’s definitely not the way I’m heading this afternoon.
Braves Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte
Home Run Pick – Trea Turner
DFS MLB – Dodgers at Brewers
Dodgers Probable Starter – Alex Wood, LHP
3.92 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 21.5 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .272 average, .266 wOBA, 25.2 K rate, 21.3 fly ball rate and 28.6 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .243 average, .301 wOBA, 20.3 K rate, 34.6 fly ball rate and 40.8 hard hit rate
The Brewers did get Ryan Braun back yesterday so this spot is a little more dangerous for Wood today, provided he’s in the lineup. The average against righties looks good but the fly ball rate and hard hit rate don’t look promising for Wood in a hitter’s ball park. Lorenzo Cain is bordering on a must play for me. He has a .254 ISO, 1.059 OPS and a .450 wOBA against lefties and is only $3,400. Braun hasn’t been as good as he used to be but I’m betting he’s chalky in cash games at just $3,000. The big decision is going to be if you want to spend up for Jesus Aguilar. He’s far and away the leader in ISO against lefties at .339 and could easily take Wood out of the yard today. I don’t think I’ll use Wood at all since there’s at least a third of the lineup that can get to him with Braun’s return.
Brewers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Lorenzo Cain, Jesus Aguilar
Secondary Options – Ryan Braun, Hernan Perez
Brewers Probable Starter – Brent Suter, LHP
4.39 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 19.9 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .222 average, .302 wOBA, 18.4 K rate, 41.2 fly ball rate and 36.1 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .255 average, .314 wOBA, 20.4 K rate, 37.7 fly ball rate and 31.2 hard hit rate
I’ve been chasing the Dodgers often the past couple of weeks with mixed results. This could be the day it helps pay off because they get a lefty who throws hit fastball 69 percent of the time against righty hitters this season. Matt kemp has a .635 xwOBA to go along with a .272 ISO and .391 wOBA. He’s just too cheap in this matchup. Chris Taylor and Manny Machado are both over a .440 xwOBA agains the fastball so far this season. It’s games like this and the Reds that really make me think about pitching J.A. Happ instead of the high priced elites at the vey top. This is too good of a spot to ignore the Dodgers even if they have burned you a little bit recently.
Dodgers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Matt Kemp, Chris Taylor, Manny Machado
Secondary Options – Justin Turner, Kike Hernandez
Home Run Pick – Matt Kemp
DFS MLB – Twins at Royals
Twins Probable Starter – Jake Odorizzi, RHP
4.54 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 23.7 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .260 average, .375 wOBA, 22.0 K rate, 50.0 fly ball rate and 37.0 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .255 average, .330 wOBA, 24.9 K rate, 45.9 fly ball rate and 34.8 hard hit rate
On the entire slate, Whit Merrifield has the highest xwOBA of any hitter in any matchup at .849. Now, it is only six at-bats but Merrifield does have two home runs in those at-bats. I’m not sure I’m going to put a ton of stock into that because he only has a 0.85 ISO and a .317 wOBA against righty pitching. $3,600 seems like a pretty high price for those underlying numbers and I don’t think this is an actionable piece of information. Odorizzi has given up more home runs to lefties so I would actually rather play Lucas Duda or Mike Moustakas. I would lean Moose here due to the lower strikeout rate and the much higher ISO. Odorizzi spreads his pitch type around and it’s harder to use that metric to hone in on who we should play. I can’t muster much enthusiasm for any respect of this game given some of the other options on the slate.
Royals Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Mike Moustakas
Secondary Options – Lucas Duda, Whit Merrifield
Royals Probable Starter – Brad Keller, RHP
3.13 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 13.5 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .253 average, .310 wOBA, 13.0 K rate, 19.4 fly ball rate and 28.6 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .252 average, .275 wOBA, 13.9 K rate, 25.0 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate
This side of the game is a little more exciting but I think it would still be a stack it or forget it style of spot. Keller throws his fastball a ton but the only hitters that profile well against righty fastballs is Joe Mauer and and Jorge Polanco. Mauer has very little power upside but does have a solid floor, as far as baseball goes. Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar actually don’t look too hot against righty fastballs, with an xwOBA under .325 for both of them. I’m viewing the Twins the same way that I’m looking at the Rays today. If you want them, that’s understandable. They just wouldn’t be a huge part of my core players today.
Twins Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Joe Mauer, Jorge Polanco
Secondary Options – Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar
Home Run Pick – Mike Moustakas
DFS MLB – Cardinals at Cubs
Cardinals Probable Starter – Miles Mikolas, RHP
2.79 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 17.3 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .267 average, .297 wOBA, 15.3 K rate, 29.9 fly ball rate and 37.3 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .182 average, .214 wOBA, 19.7 K rate, 25.0 fly ball rate and 26.3 hard hit rate
I never play any righty hitters against Mikolas and today will be no different. I also don’t think I’m going to be chasing the lefties from Chicago because Mikolas has been a solid pitcher all season long. Pitch data isn’t the way to go here because Mikolas throws a ton of different pitches to lefties. Anthony Rizzo has shown some signs of turning his season around but his price is coming right back up. Ian Happ and Jason Heyward are both good options with Happ producing a .230 ISO this year. He’s under $3,000 and is perfectly fine. All the lefties for the Cubs take a notch up if the wind is blowing out, as is always the case in Chicago.
Cubs Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ
Secondary Options – Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward
Cubs Probable Starter – Jose Quintana, LHP
3.96 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 20.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .225 average, .294 wOBA, 26.0 K rate, 24.1 fly ball rate and 31.3 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .243 average, .333 wOBA, 19.2 K rate, 36.7 fly ball rate and 40.5 hard hit rate
Quintana has been much worse at home and there’s a solid buy-low opportunity today with Tommy Pham. He was awful leading into the break but has found his way to being productive once again, scoring double digit points in every game since the break ended. Quintana throws the fastball and curve about 75 percent of the time and Pham has xwOBA’s over .435 against both of them. Harrison Bader is always a rock solid price and if Jedd Gyorko plays, he’s an elite play with his .423 wOBA. The elephant in the room is what to do with Matt Carpenter. He’s been en fuego to levels we don’t always see, hitting a home run in six straight games. He’s up over $4,000 but he is pretty scary to fade right now with a .386 ISO against lefties. The flip side is he’s not going to hit a home run again…..right? At some point, the Cubs have to stop giving him pitches to hit.
Cardinals Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham, Harrison Bader
Secondary Options – Jedd Gyorko
Home Run Pick – Matt Carpenter does NOT hit one, but Ian Happ does
DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup
P – J.A. Happ
C/1B – Joey Votto
2B – Jedd Gyorko
3B – Colin Moran
SS – Manny Machado
OF – Tommy Pham, Matt Kemp, Lorenzo Cain
Utility – Jesse Winker
I was really having a hard time fitting in the offense I felt comfortable with if I pitched Sale. You really have to ask yourself, is it worth paying $4,500 extra for Sale instead of Happ? If Happ puts up 35 points, it would be almost impossible for Sale to throw a game that would make it worth spending all that extra money. I’m rolling a couple of Reds, Dodgers and Cardinals as things stand. Cain is a good one-off and even though I think Harvey might throw a good game, Moran is a totally fine investment at just $2,600. Hopefully Gyorko plays today to make the lineup work.
The Core – Joey Votto, Lorenzo Cain, Matt Kemp
Pitchers to Consider
High End – Chris Sale, Max Scherzer
Mid-Range – J.A. Happ, Mike Foltynewicz, Chris Archer
Punts – Jake Odorizzi, Matt Harvey
Stacks to Consider – Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Dodgers, Red Sox righty trio, St. Louis Cardinals
As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.