MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, July 22nd All Slates

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, July 22nd All Slates

Welcome to a Sunday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about format and content:

• The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
• Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
• In this DFS MLB Bargain Bin Quick Hits version, I’ll suggest players that are typically value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). Naturally, check final pricing before making your lineup decisions, as I am not listing salaries in this edition.
• This is not a position-by-position breakdown, but rather, I’m just identifying games where I think there’s value players in potentially favorable fantasy spots.
• The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.

With those housekeeping items out-of-the-way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Sunday’s slates!

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, July 22nd Bargain Pitcher

Sean Manaea, OAK vs. SFG

I could almost cut and paste from last Sunday’s entry to make Manaea’s case, as this was the same matchup he drew in the first-half finale, except it was across the bay at AT & T Park. Naturally, the numbers line up for him once again today, especially considering how effective he was in that outing (6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 SO, 1 QS, W).

As poor as the Giants have been against lefties at home, they’ve been even poorer on the road. .They come into Sunday’s action sporting an NL-low .238 wOBA and 46 wRC+ against southpaws away from home over the last month of play, and are tied with the Orioles for the lowest ISO against lefties during that span (.077) as well. As those numbers also imply, they haven’t exactly put good wood on the ball against left-handers over that span, either, which his borne out by their 19.8 percent line-drive rate and 29.3 percent hard contact rate.

Meanwhile, Manaea has really hit a stride, notching quality starts in six of his last seven trips to the mound. He also brings a solid home resume, which includes a .189 BAA, .251 wOBA allowed, 0.84 WHIP, 3.49 ERA and 40:9 K:BB over 59.1 frames. Manaea’s batted-ball profile is also much better at the Coliseum, as he’s yielded nearly six percent less hard contact than on the road (35.6 percent, as compared to 41.3 percent). He also sees more than a six percent drop in HR/FB rate (10.9 percent, as compared to 17.2 percent) in his pitcher-friendly home stadium, which also carries the third-best park factor rating from a pitching perspective (.0784) and second-lowest home-run park factor rating (0.691) as well.

ALSO CONSIDER:

Marco Gonzales, SEA vs. CWS

Brad Keller, KC vs. MIN

J.A. Happ, TOR vs. BAL

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, July 22nd All Slates Quick Hits

• Left-handed hitters have not been kind to the Padres’ Tyson Ross this season, including on the road, where he’s allowed them a .370 wOBA, 31.2 percent line-drive rate and 37.6 percent hard contact. The switch-hitting Cesar Hernandez (if priced reasonably) and Carlos Santana certainly are worthy of consideration and already have solid track records against Ross, while Nick Williams and even the switch-hitting Andrew Knapp if he’s in the lineup can be thrown out there for tournaments as well. Odubel Herrera also naturally qualifies but will likely be priced above value range.

• On the other side, there’s a number of Padres with strong track records against the Phillies’ Nick Pivetta, who’s been a much better pitcher at home but has still allowed eight homers at Citizens Bank Park. Wil Myers, Austin Hedges or A.J. Ellis, Jose Pirela, Manuel Margot and Christian Villanueva are therefore all worthy of consideration.

• The road has been particularly cruel to the Orioles’ Andrew Cashner this season, and it’s been both handedness of hitter doing the damage. Left-handed bats have gotten to the righty for a .368 wOBA outside of Camden Yards, while right-handed hitters have touched him up for a .414 wOBA. And it bears noting that while the left-handed hitters have the lower wOBA figure, they’ve made hard contact at a much higher 39.1 percent rate (as compared to 30.1 percent by righty bats). To make matters worse for Cashner, several Blue Jays have favorable career resumes against him, so consider a rollout of any and all Blue Jays affordable bats, including Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak, Teoscar Hernandez, Yangervis Solarte and Curtis Granderson.

• The Tigers’ Blaine Hardy is back in the starting rotation beginning Sunday, and after working as a reliever the past few weeks, he may not go past the fifth or sixth inning as he works back into a starter’s role. He’s been very effective against both sides of the plate at home, but consider any right-handed Red Sox bargain bats that might be in the lineup for larger-field tournaments.

•  Another pair of strictly very large-field tournament options are Jose Iglesias and Victor Martinez against Chris Sale, considering they have .344 and .423 career averages, respectively, against the left-hander over robust 32- and 52-at-bat-samples. Iglesias’ body of work is particularly impressive, considering he’s only struck out twice against Sale during that span.

• The Pirates’ Ivan Nova has been punished by both sides of the plate on the road, but especially by left-handed bats (.437 wOBA, including eight homers, allowed). All of the Reds value bats are under consideration Sunday, including Jose Peraza, Jesse Winker, Tucker Barnhart, Billy Hamilton and Adam Duvall.

• The Reds’ Bryan Harvey continues to surprise after appearing to be ready for the scrap heap earlier in the season, but it’s always prudent to throw out a few left-handed value bats against him. With the Pirates, that naturally means the hot-hitting Corey Dickerson, as well as Colin Moran, the switch-hitting Josh Bell and Gregory Polanco.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, July 22nd All Slates Quick Hits (cont.)

• The Rays’ Chris Archer gives up a bit more contact than most staff aces, and Starlin Castro (.400 career average against him) seems to usually solve him pretty well. Archer has also been appreciably worse at Tropicana Field (4.91 ERA allowed) has allowed lefty bats a .354 wOBA there, so Justin Bour, Derek Dietrich and JT Riddle are also certainly worthy of consideration.

• It’s always hard to know which Trevor Richards is going to show up for the Marlins, but with a .377 wOBA allowed on the road overall and trouble against both handedness of hitter away from Marlins Park, all the Rays value bats are in play here. That includes the likes of Daniel Robertson, Joey Wendle, Mallex Smith, C.J. Cron, Carlos Gomez and Jake Bauers.

• Never a bad idea to throw out a few left-handed bats against the Twins’ Jake Odorizzi, so Lucas Duda and Mike Moustakas particularly stand out on the Royals.

• The Indians are likely to be a popular stack against the vulnerable Yovani Gallardo, but they don’t exactly come cheap, of course. However, Yonder Alonso (.313 career average against him) is one particularly appealing option, as is Tyler Naquin if he’s in the lineup. Edwin Encarnacion also has three career homers against Gallardo but will likely be priced out of value range.

• The Astros’ Lance McCullers isn’t usually a target, but worth noting that both Luis Valbuena and Justin Upton have both hit well in the past over modest samples.

• On the other side, the Angels’ Andrew Heaney has been very good at home, but he has given up five home runs there to right-handed hitters. I’d consider Yuli Gurriel, Evan Gattis and Max Stassi where affordable for larger-field tournaments.

• The Rockies’ Antonio Senzatela has actually had more trouble on the road than at home, particularly against right-handed batters (.323 wOBA, 34.3 percent hard contact allowed). As far as value D-Backs righty bats, I’d give Nick Ahmed, John Ryan Murphy and Steven Souza a whirl for larger-field tournaments.

• The Rockies naturally have plenty of experience facing Zack Greinke, and although the right-hander is usually not a DFS target, worth noting that Carlos Gonzalez (.333 career average) and Gerardo Parra (.304 career average) both have successful track records against him as far as value Colorado bats.

• The Padres’ Luis Perdomo can be hard to figure out, as his performances can range to downright ugly to respectable. It’s always prudent to throw out some value lefty bats against him on the road, considering he’s allowed a .381 wOBA to that handedness outside of Petco Park. Therefore, the same lefty Phillies bats mentioned at the beginning of this entry for the first game of the doubleheader would be in play again in the “nightcap”.

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