DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Monday, July 23
Welcome into the Monday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have a huge 13 game slate on hand tonight so we have plenty of work to do!
I don’t know if I’ve said it lately, but I really hate chalk hitters in cash games some days. For the second straight day, the cash line in 50/50’s had a higher point total than the DFS MLB GPP’s that I was in. The Blue Jays hitters were massive chalk and they hit hard late in the game, ruining any shot that I had. The only two plays that I used and got right was J.A. Happ and Matt Kemp. Sale did score 55 points, but Happ scored 39 for $4,500 less. I just didn’t see the offense come through to make things work. Let’s get rolling for tonight’s abnormally large slate.
DFS MLB – Red Sox at Orioles
Red Sox Probable Starter – Rick Porcello, RHP
4.13 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 22.3 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .241 average, .318 wOBA, 26.6 K rate, 43.2 fly ball rate and 40.4 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .255 average, .299 wOBA, 18.8 K rate, 29.2 fly ball rate and 24.9 hard hit rate
The targeting of the Orioles offense with opposing pitchers might well continue tonight. Baltimore is seventh in the league in strikeout rate against righty pitching and that number includes the time that Manny Machado was still there. Mark Trumbo has the only ISO over .200 among active hitters on the team, but I generally don’t target right handed hitters against Porcello. He just doesn’t give up enough fly balls to make me think I’m making a good bet. You can take a shot with Chris Davis since he’s a lefty and that’s where Porcello is normally weaker against them. He does have four home runs off Porcello in their careers, but that’s a GPP option only. It’s going to be the new normal, but the Orioles hitters aren’t that interesting on a big slate.
Orioles Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo
Orioles Probable Starter – Kevin Gausman, RHP
4.33 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 20.0 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .256 average, .327 wOBA, 20.6 K rate, 34.2 fly ball rate and 26.5 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .298 average, .358 wOBA, 19.6 K rate, 29.9 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard hit rate
We all know that the Red Sox offense can erupt at any time and tonight might be one of those spots. Six everyday players have an ISO over .200 with it being evenly split between righties and lefty hitters. The righties have been more dangerous with a 1.72 HR/9 and Guasman throws a three pitch mix of a four seamer, slider and splitter to righties. All of Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts have an xwOBA of .420 or over. As far as the lefties go, Gausman is just a four seamer and splitter pitcher for the most part. Mitch Moreland and Andrew Benintendi have an xwOBA over .420 as well. The Boston offense is better against righties, Camden Yards is a hitter’s park and they all rate well against the mix for Gausman. There’s a lot of factors that lineup very poorly for the Baltimore starter tonight. You can mix in these five hitters however your budget allows with Betts and Martinez being the best options at the high end.
Red Sox Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts
Secondary Options – Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland
Home Run Pick – Xander Bogaerts
DFS MLB – Dodgers at Phillies
Dodgers Probable Starter – Ross Stripling, RHP
2.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 28.1 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .233 average, .260 wOBA, 31.1 K rate, 29.8 fly ball rate and 25.0 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .250 average, .298 wOBA, 25.0 K rate, 35.9 fly ball rate and 34.6 hard hit rate
By a lot of metrics, the Philly offense is mediocre to poor against righty pitching. Stripling is in the middle of a breakout season and he does have a good bit of potential in this spot. Stripling just hasn’t allowed runs since he joined the rotation and the Phillies offense goes back and forth with the Padres to earn the worst strikeout rate in baseball against righty pitching. The Dodgers starter doesn’t lean too heavily on any one pitch so I wouldn’t want to get too caught up in pitch data in this instance. The Phillis normal lineup would see three of their top four hitters bat lefty against Stripling and he’s shown a little bit better against lefty hitters. The only two that I would play would be Rhys Hoskins or maybe Maikel Franco. Mind you, I’m not excited about those plays but they would be fine GPP options. Both players have an ISO of .184 or higher and the wOBA is over .340. I’d be far more likely to use Stripling than Phillies tonight.
Phillies Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco
Phillies Probable Starter – Zach Eflin, RHP
3.15 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 24.0 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .244 average, .316 wOBA, 24.4 K rate, 47.0 fly ball rate and 25.9 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .216 average, .254 wOBA, 23.7 K rate, 37.0 fly ball rate and 26.1 hard hit rate
If you told me before the season I would be slightly worried about Eflin pitching a good game, I probably would have laughed at you. He’s been legitimately a good pitcher so far but he has been weaker against lefties so there is opportunity here. He’s limited damage thus far but the lefties like Max Muncy, Joc Pederson and Cody Bellinger could be in line for big nights. Bellinger is more of a GPP option since he’s having a sub-par season and has the lowest ISO and wOBA combo of this trio. The forgotten man tonight could be Yasmani Grandal, especially on FanDuel since he’s a catcher. Eflin throws a four seamer right around half the time to lefty hitters and Grandal has the highest xwOBA against the pitch to go along with his .245 ISO and .375 wOBA against righties. The three man stack of Grandal, Muncy and Pederson is well in play tonight.
Dodgers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Yasmani Grandal
Secondary Options – Cody Bellinger
Home Run Pick – Yasmani Grandal
DFS MLB – Twins at Blue Jays
Twins Probable Starter – Aldalberto Mejia, LHP
*Career Stats* 4.74 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 18.1 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .303 average, .364 wOBA, 22.0 K rate, 29.3 fly ball rate and 31.0 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .282 average, .351 wOBA, 17.3 K rate, 39.4 fly ball rate and 31.5 hard hit rate
Since Mejia has a tiny sample size, any of his stats will refer to his career which is right about 100 innings pitched. While he has been a little reverse splits, I don’t see the Jays putting too many lefties in the lineup tonight. We’re going to be looking at the righty hitters and I would assume that Randall Griichuk is going to lead off. He had a big game yesterday and has pulled out of his disaster start to the year. Teoscar Hernandez has an enormous .316 ISO against lefties this season and has to be firmly on your radar. If the lineup includes Yangervis Solarte at the top, that could be a very interesting stack this evening. They were chalky yesterday but the slate is a lot bigger tonight. I’m happy to take a chunk out of their lineup with Hernandez and Grichuk being my favorite two.
Blue Jays Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Randall Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez
Secondary Options – Yangervis Solarte
Blue Jays Probable Starter – Bullpen Day
Marco Estrada was supposed to start today but the Jays have decided to give him a rehab start instead. As of this writing, the plan is to patch together a bullpen day but that’s subject to change. These kind of games always get me skittish about using hitters. If you play Eddie Rosario, he has major splits against each handedness of pitcher. You can get platooned right out of points in a critical at-bat without the luxury of targeting a starting pitcher for at least two at-bats. Unless the Jays have a more concrete plan before lock, I’m not all that interested in the Twins tonight.
Twins Hitters to Target
Elite Options – TBD
Secondary Options – TBD
Home Run Pick – Teoscar Hernandez
DFS MLB – Braves at Marlins
Braves Probable Starter – Sean Newcomb, LHP
3.51 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 22.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .188 average, .319 wOBA, 22.5 K rate, 37.3 fly ball rate and 37.3 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .218 average, .286 wOBA, 22.1 K rate, 34.5 fly ball rate and 30.7 hard hit rate
Even against the Marlins, I’m not sure I can get on board with Newcomb tonight. He hasn’t topped 31 points on FanDuel since June 16th and the strikeouts haven’t been there. The Marlins don’t strikeout at an awful rate against lefties but they are putrid against the handedness in almost every other metric. When they’re at home, they rank 29th in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. The only hitter that sort of stands out might be Starlin Castro and that’s really for only one reason. He has a .447 xwOBA against lefty fastballs and Newcomb throws his to righty hitters 61 percent of the time. The issue is he’s $3,300 so you’re not getting any type of discount or anything like that to make him a great option. You could throw a dart at Newcomb due to the matchup but it just doesn’t appear that there’s a massive ceiling you would want in a GPP.
Marlins Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Starlin Castro, Derek Dietrich
Marlins Probable Starter – Jose Urena, RHP
4.39 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 19.9 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .276 average, .324 wOBA, 16.8 K rate, 30.0 fly ball rate and 44.2 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .243 average, .287 wOBA, 23.0 K rate, 26.4 fly ball rate and 38.4 hard hit rate
It’s not too often we get Freddie Freeman at around $4,000 but he’s still around that range and should be considered against a pitcher that is worse against lefties. Freeman and Nick Markakis both have an xwOBA over .400 against the four seamer and changeup, which are the main two pitches for Urena. The ISO isn’t typically what you want to see and it doesn’t help that it’s in Miami instead of Atlanta. Still, it’s not like the home run is the only way hitters can rack up points. Freeman and Markakis are fine options and may not be all that popular. Ozzie Albies may or may not play with a hamstring injury. Those type of injuries always terrify me because they can pop up easily. The Braves are likely to be cautious with their young star but even if he’s in, I don’t want to pay the premium for him. Both Johan Camargo and Ender Inciarte are good lineup fillers at just $2,900. Inciarte is always a stolen base threat.
Braves Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis
Secondary Options – Ender Inciarte, Johan Camargo
Home Run Pick – Freddie Freeman
DFS MLB – Pirates at Indians
Pirates Probable Starter – Trevor Williams, RHP
4.36 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 17.1 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .242 average, .309 wOBA, 11.4 K rate, 37.0 fly ball rate and 29.6 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .230 average, .311 wOBA, 22.4 K rate, 40.6 fly ball rate and 33.1 hard hit rate
As long as the Pirates are in town, Jose Ramirez is going to be in a smash spot. The Pittsburgh rotation is right handed, fastball heavy and they are worse against lefties. Yes, he’s expensive at $5,200. He’s also averaging 1.3 more points per game than Mike Trout on FanDuel, so the price is fully deserved. Williams throws a four seam or a sinker to lefty hitters 70 percent of the time. Ramirez has a .485 xwOBA against those pitches and a whopping .372 ISO against righty pitching overall. On top of everything else, Williams just doesn’t strike out lefty batters. Pitching to contact against Ramirez is a very poor idea. All of the normal Indians lefties that we know and love have an xwOBA over .375 against the main mix for Williams. This is one of the worst spots of the night for a pitcher.
Indians Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley
Secondary Options – Bottom of the lineup value plays
Indians Probable Starter – Corey Kluber, RHP
2.76 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 25.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .203 average, .259 wOBA, 27.8 K rate, 32.5 fly ball rate and 35.2 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .218 average, .259 wOBA, 24.0 K rate, 34.9 fly ball rate and 38.6 hard hit rate
I’m probably not going to touch Kluber tonight. It’s not that I have a huge fear of the Pirates offense, even though they just clobbered the Reds for 27 runs in three games in Cincinnati. Kluber had an injection in his knee over the All-Star break so there’s risk there because he could leave the game early if the knee isn’t responding well. The Pirates also have the second best strikeout rate against righties and Kluber has seen his strikeout rate plummet this season. The ERA is also creeping up and is getting close to 3.00. At $11,000, there’s just too many little factors that make me a little nervous. I’m not chasing the hot offense of Pittsburgh but won’t have much Kluber at all.
Pirates Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Corey Dickerson
Home Run Pick – Three Indians will go yard in Ramirez, Brantley and Kipnis
DFS MLB: MIAMI, FL – JUNE 8: Eric Lauer #46 of the San Diego Padres throws a pitch during the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park on June 8, 2018 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)
DFS MLB – Padres at Mets
Padres Probable Starter – Eric Lauer, LHP
4.87 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and 18.9 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .324 average, .385 wOBA, 10.3 K rate, 34.5 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .300 average, .362 wOBA, 21.3 K rate, 34.6 fly ball rate and 41.9 hard hit rate
It appears Yoenis Cespedes might be on the shelf with yet another injury. That’s bed news for the Mets but if he is, Lauer becomes kind of interesting at his price point. He got hammered in his last start but had been productive in the starts before that. The Mets have also been what amounts to the weakest offense in baseball against southpaw pitching. They are dead last in average, OPS, wOBA and wRC+. Things do get better if we look at ISO because the Mets are 29th! Anything is better than the basement, right? No everyday regular player has an ISO over .195 so Lauer has a chance to keep the ball in the yard. The hitter with that mark is actually Brandon Nimmo, so if I had to play a Mets hitter it would likely be him. We’ve seen the ceiling for Lauer as he pitched to 57 points against the Dodgers two starts ago. That’s what you’re looking for in a low owned pitcher in GPP formats.
Mets Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Brandon Nimmo, Jose Bautista
Mets Probable Starter – Zack Wheeler, RHP
4.44 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 23.0 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .270 average, .339 wOBA, 24.3 K rate, 38.2 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .234 average, .276 wOBA, 22.0 K rate, 32.7 fly ball rate and 21.6 hard hit rate
Wheeler might be a little too expensive for my liking on FanDuel but I don’t blame you if you want to take your shot with him tonight. The Padres lead baseball in strikeout rate against righties and they rank dead last in OPS, ISO and wOBA on top of that. Wheeler has done a great job against righty hitters so far, which really lowers my interest in a lot of the Padres offense. The one exception on the right side of the plate is Wil Myers. Not only does he lead the team in ISO and wOBA but he carries a .541 xwOBA against righty fastballs. That’s the pitch that Wheeler throws the most at 62 percent of the time. Lefty Travis Jankowski and switch hitter Eric Hosmer are cheap enough that they can be used but I’m not rushing to put them in as core plays.
Padres Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Wil Myers
Secondary Options – Travis Jankowski, Eric Hosmer
Home Run Pick – Wil Myers
DFS MLB – Yankees at Rays
Yankees Probable Starter – Luis Severino, RHP
2.31 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 28.7 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .205 average, .255 wOBA, 29.4 K rate, 29.0 fly ball rate and 36.4 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .210 average, .258 wOBA, 28.1 K rate, 36.8 fly ball rate and 31.9 hard hit rate
Severino got touched up in his two most recent starts but that’s not something that really concerns me. He’s been a Cy Young candidate the entire season up to this point and the Rays offense isn’t going to be one that I use against elite pitchers. The Yankees stud is one of the better options on the slate, even though he’s the most expensive player. It’s a little weird that Severino is worse on the road considering he pitches regularly in Yankee Stadium but even then, the ERA is 3.05. That’s not something that’s giving me any pause in deploying Severino tonight. Tampa is one of the five worst teams agains the slider, which makes up about 37 percent of the arsenal for Severino.
Rays Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options -None
Rays Probable Starter – Bullpen Day
I’ve poked fun at the Rays when discussing their unorthodox pitching strategy, but it’s hard to argue with their 50-49 record. Given their talent deficiencies, that’s a real accomplishment in the A.L. East. That doesn’t make our lives any easier for DFS at this point and until we get a clearer idea of who’s pitching tonight, it’s tough to figure out who to play from the Yankees. It doesn’t help that New York is always expensive. The last thing you want is to spend a lot of money on a hitter to have him face bad matchups, just like the Twins offense earlier. As is always the case for the Rays, follow Marc Topkin on Twitter for all of your Tampa information coming down the stretch.
Yankees Hitters to target
Elite Options – TBD
Secondary Options – TBD
Home Run Pick – Gary Sanchez
DFS MLB – Cardinals at Reds
Cardinals Probable Starter – Daniel Poncedeleon, RHP
*Major League Debut*
It’s probably not a good thing to be making your debut at age 26 when you’ve had an ERA under 2.20 since the start of last season. This one is a little different as Poncedeleon suffered a very serious injury last year after taking a liner off his head. He’s had a solid strikeout rate but was also a fly baller this season, giving up a fly ball about 50 percent of the time. When the track record is nil and the pedigree is questionable, I tend to either stack the offense or stay away. If you played Reds yesterday and you’re not still angry at them for doing nothing, the trio of Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett and Jesse Winker are the best options against righty pitching. None of the power numbers are anything special but Poncedeleon could easily fall apart in his debut.
Reds Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Reds stack in GPP
Reds Probable Starter – Luis Castillo, RHP
5.49 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 21.5 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .291 average, .384 wOBA, 20.2 K rate, 39.6 fly ball rate and 44.7 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .239 average, .302 wOBA, 22.8 K rate, 27.8 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard hit rate
It’s not often that I think a hitter that is over $4,000 is a stone cold lock but it’s almost impossible to leave Matt Carpenter out of the lineup tonight. Castillo has been getting smashed by lefties and he’s facing one of the hottest hitters in baseball in a small ball park. 70 percent of Castillo’s pitches to lefties are fastballs or changeups and Carpenter has an xwOBA of .468 against that mix. If Jose Ramirez isn’t the top overall play on the slate, Carpenter has to be right there for that title.He’s also $1,000 cheaper which might give him the edge on a points per dollar basis. Kolten Wong has been dreadful this year but he’s a fine punt from the left side of the plate considering how bad Castillo has been against them.
Cardinals Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Mat Carpenter
Secondary Options – Kolten Wong
Home Run Pick – Matt Carpenter
DFS MLB: MESA, AZ – MARCH 06: Kris Bryant #17 of the Chicago Cubs celebrates with teammates in the dugout after scoring on a single by Willson Contreras #40 during the first inning of a spring training game against the Los Angeles Dodgers on March 6, 2018 in Mesa, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Cubs
Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Patrick Corbin, LHP
3.24 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 30.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .269 average, .360 wOBA, 29.3 K rate, 23.0 fly ball rate and 46.8 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .192 average, .239 wOBA, 30.7 K rate, 30.0 fly ball rate and 42.2 hard hit rate
If Corbin didn’t have excellent metrics, the Cubs righty hitters would likely be total chalk tonight against a lefty. I wonder how the public will view this game but I do like some of the normal suspects against a lefty for the Chicago offense. Against righty hitting, Corbin throws his slider and sinker more than anything. Javier Baez has a .534 xwOBA against those two pitches and has a .270 ISO to back it up. Kris Bryant has seen his price dip under $4,000 and has an absurd .448 ISO, 1.267 OPS and a .508 wOBA against lefty pitching. He doesn’t look as good as Baez does from the pitch data perspective, but an xwOBA of .395 is nothing to sneer at. Corbin is starting to come back to Earth a little bit and if you think he gets knocked around in this spot, Addison Russell and Willson Contreras would round out a four man stack.
Cubs Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Javier Baez, Kris Bryant
Secondary Options – Addison Russel, Willson Contreras
Cubs Probable Starter – Luke Farrell, RHP
3.86 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 30.3 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .233 average, .363 wOBA, 24.5 K rate, 56.7 fly ball rate and 36.7 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .215 average, .285 wOBA, 34.8 K rate, 39.0 fly ball rate and 34.2 hard hit rate
So far this year, Farrell has pitched more than three innings just once so it wouldn’t be smart to project him for a ton of innings tonight. He can’t be used with any confidence this evening but it’s a little murkier about where to go with the Arizona offense. I wouldn’t want to play Jake Lamb since a lefty reliever can shut him down but hitters like David Peralta, A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt should be fine options regardless of which handedness is on the mound. I’m hoping that we get word on what type of pitch count Farrell is on, even if it’s sort of a soft pitch count. We just need an idea of how long he can last before we can be more confident projecting this side of the game.
Diamondbacks Hitters to Target
Elite Options – TBD if anyone really stands out
Secondary Options – Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, David Peralta
Home Run Pick – Kris Bryant
DFS MLB – A’s at Rangers
A’s Probable Starter – Brett Anderson, LHP
6.08 ERA, 1.86 WHIP and 10.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .320 average, .365 wOBA, 3.5 K rate, 20.8 fly ball rate and 37.5 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .364 average, .422 wOBA, 13.4 K rate, 29.2 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate
Brett Anderson has been abjectly terrible so far this year and I’m not considering him at all for tonight. It’s kind of weird how some of the metrics shake out however. Adrian Beltre looks great via pitch data, but has a .078 ISO against lefty hitters. None of the other hitters for the Texas lineup rate well against the pitches that Anderson throws. Jurickson Profar leads the squad in wOBA against lefty pitching but it’s awfully hard to find room for him at a very crowded third base position. I can’t play Joey Gallo with his 41.5 strikeout rate but the next highest ISO on the team belongs to Ryan Rua at .288. Since he’s minimum price on FanDuel, that’s a great way to save some salary for the bigger bats you really want to play.
Rangers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Ryan Rua, Adrian Beltre
Secondary Options – Jurickson Profar, Shin-soo Choo, Elvis Andrus
Rangers Probable Starter – Cole Hamels, LHP
4.36 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 22.9 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .283 average, .351 wOBA, 15.7 K rate, 25.0 fly ball rate and 34.7 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .244 average, .340 wOBA, 24.1 K rate, 34.6 fly ball rate and 45.3 hard hit rate
If Cole Hamels is on the slate, I generally like to find at least one righty against him in my lineup that night. He’s given up 20 home runs to righties so it’s just a matter of picking the right player. That man for me is going to be Chad Pinder. In eight career at-bats against Hamels, Pinder has three doubles, three home runs and a single. That’s been good for a .995 xwOBA and he’s a great hitter against lefties in general. He’s currently day to day and so is Mark Canha. They’re both $2,500 and I don’t think it’s crazy to play both of them. Canha has a higher ISO and wOBA than Pinder on the season. Plenty of people might head towards Khris Davis after his double dong game yesterday. Just keep in mind that he has a wOBA of .287 and an ISO of .183 against lefties this year. I’d rather see those numbers a little higher before I played Davis.
A’s Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Chad Pinder, Mark Canha
Secondary options – Khris Davis, Jed Lowrie, Matt Chapman
Home Run Pick – Chad Pinder
DFS MLB – Nationals at Brewers
Nationals Probable Starter – Gio Gonzalez, LHP
3.72 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 21.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .205 average, .242 wOBA, 30.5 K rate, 34.6 fly ball rate and 25.0 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .265 average, .340 wOBA, 19.1 K rate, 29.1 fly ball rate and 31.1 hard hit rate
This isn’t the spot for Gonzalez to get back on track. He hasn’t truck out more than four hitters since the start of June. The pitch data isn’t something that I’m going to hone in on because Gonzalez is pretty evenly split over his arsenal. Ryan Braun will probably be popular in cash but I’d rather find the extra $300 to play Lorenzo Cain instead. Cain has the higher wOBA by a .111 mark and the ISO’s are ver similar. The OPS are where Cain really holds the advantage of .259 points. One of the keys to this game is if Jesus Aguilar will be in the lineup after being a late scratch yesterday with a sore hamstring. Given the splits for Gonzalez, I might take a chance on Aguilar in a GPP format.
Brewers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun
Secondary Options – Hernan Perez, Jesus Aguilar
Brewers Probable Starter – Jhoulys Chacin, RHP
3.68 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 18.1 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .270 average, .342 wOBA, 13.3 K rate, 33.7 fly ball rate and 39.0 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .184 average, .246 wOBA, 23.0 K rate, 37.8 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard hit rate
I don’t want to use Chacin given he has trouble with lefties because the Nationals can put at least four in the lineup. The one that appears to grade out the best by all the metrics we use is Matt Adams. For $3,100, you can get a .313 ISO, .414 wOBA and a .979 OPS. On top of that, Adams looks great against the main two pitches for Chacin with a .483 xwOBA. Hitters like Bryce Harper and Juan Soto look like great options as well because Chacin isn’t missing any lefty bats. Those two hitters will do some damage if they make contact. Harper is down to $4,100 and has a higher ISO and a higher xwOBA than Soto. It would seem ideal to find the extra $200 to player Harper. This game could easily be high scoring.
Nationals Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Matt Adams, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto
Secondary Options – Adam Eaton, Daniel Murphy
Home Run Pick – Matt Adams
DFS MLB – Tigers at Royals
Tigers Probable Starter – Francisco Liriano, LHP
4.67 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 18.9 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .088 average, .188 wOBA, 26.2 K rate, 37.5 fly ball rate and 20.0 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .266 average, .362 wOBA, 17.2 K rate, 35.4 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate
The Kansas City offense isn’t anything special and two of their hitters that we sometimes look at are lefty, so they’re off the table. However, Whit Merrifield looks like an elite play. The pitch data looks wonderful for him with a .419 xwOBA against the two most used pitches by Liriano. Merrifield has a huge .439 wOBA and even though he’s not a power hitter, the ISO is .212. The added bonus for the second baseman for the Royals is he’s managed to steal eight bases off lefty pitching this year. That’s an awful lot and shouldn’t be totally discounted as a possibility. Past Merrifield, I wouldn’t have any Royals hitters I believe.
Royals Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Whit Merrifield
Secondary Options – None
Royals Probable Starter – Heath Fillmyer, RHP
*15.2 IP* 3.45 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 10.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .167 average, .224 wOBA, 11.4 K rate, 30.8 fly ball rate and 19.2 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .357 average, .438 wOBA, 9.7 K rate, 28.0 fly ball rate and 56.0 hard hit rate
I almost never play too many Tigers against right handed pitching but I might consider Nicholas Castellanos tonight. His numbers against right handed pitching aren’t spectacular with an ISO of .191 and a wOBA of .335 but this reverse splits for Fillmyer really stand out. That would likely be the only hitter I would feel comfortable with but the team leader in ISO against righties is Niko Goodrum. He’s also decent but not great with the pitch data and his strikeout rate of 32.9 keeps him from being anything more than a GPP option. I really wish I could trust some of these hitters more because Fillmyer hasn’t been all that great. Most of the statistics fro the Tigers offense say tread lightly in this spot.
Tigers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Nicholas Castellanos, Niko Goodrum, Leonys Martin
Home Run Pick – Whit Merrifield
DFS MLB – White Sox at Angels
White Sox Probable Starter – Lucas Giolito, RHP
6.18 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 13.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .266 average, .379 wOBA, 9.6 K rate, 44.8 fly ball rate and 31.3 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .222 average, .327 wOBA, 17.8 K rate, 40.5 fly ball rate and 27.3 hard hit rate
The stats still look awful for Giolito but his last five starts have actually shown some promise other than one game. He got crushed for seven runs against the Reds but in the other four games, he only gave up seven earned runs over 27 innings. That’s actually not that terrible and I don’t think I’m going crazy here with Angels hitters. Mike Trout has been a little more boom or bust lately, but his price reflects that. We don’t see him at $4,500 very often with his .433 wOBA and .294 ISO. Kole Calhoun is one of the lone lefties on the Angels roster but Shohei Ohtani and his .305 ISO is very interesting. He’s also under $3,000 so it’s not a difficult fit. Those three hitters are the only ones I’m really considering tonight from the Angels. Giolito has a ton of possible outcomes tonight so I won’t be too heavy on any aspect of this side of the game.
Angels Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Mike Trout
Secondary Options – Kole Calhoun, Shohei Ohtani
Angels Probable Starter – Jaime Barria, RHP
3.55 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 19.1 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .198 average, .239 wOBA, 22.0 K rate, 35.4 fly ball rate and 36.1 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .293 average, .401 wOBA, 16.3 K rate, 45.5 fly ball rate and 41.4 hard hit rate
Barria is a major reverse plaits pitcher and seeing the amount of fly balls he gives up makes me want to have a late night hammer going tonight. That would be Avisail Garcia who bats right handed, has a .274 ISO against righty pitching and carries a .413 xwOBA against the right handed slider and fastball, which Barria uses 89 percent of the time. He only has 150 at-bats so far and already has 10 home runs. This feels like a very solid spot for him but that might be the only White Sox player I would chase. Yoan Moncada and Yolmer Sanchez will bat lefty and Jose Abreu has just not had a good year up to this point. His wOBA and ISO against righty pitching is down at .305 and .172, respectively. It’s Garcia or bust for me. If you feel risky, you can throw Barria in tournaments just because of the potential strikeouts he could have against Chicago.
White Sox Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Avisail Garcia
Secondary Options – None
Home Run Pick – Shohei Ohtani
DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup
P – Ross Stripling
C/1B – Yonder Alonso
2B – Whit Merrifield
3B – Matt Carpenter
SS – Addison Russell
OF – Ryan Rua, Shohei Ohtani, Chad Pinder
Utility – Michael Brantley
I fully believe that Stripling and Severino are the two best options on the slate, even though both are on the road. I still might throw one of the more expensive hitters overboard to afford Severino as the day moves forward, because we never know what the lineups will bring to us. I do have two Indians in the lineup but the rest of the lineup is kind of all over the board. It’s normally the case but I feel like there’s a lot of great plays that I just can’t fit. Russell is the cheapest shortstop that I like as of this writing, and Rua is a solid punt. I think Merrifield might go under the radar and Pinder might as well since he has the orange day-to-day tag next to his name. Hopefully it stays there through a lot of the day up until lock to keep the ownership down.
The Core – Matt Carpenter, Chad Pinder, at least one Indian
Pitchers to Consider
High End – Luis Severino, Ross Stripling
Mid-Range – Zack Wheeler, Eric Lauer, Rick Porcello
Punts – Sean Newcomb, Daniel Poncedeleon
Stacks to Consider – Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals lefties
As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.