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MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Monday, July 23rd Evening Slates

By Juan Carlos Blanco

BOSTON, MA - JULY 9: Steve Pearce #25 of the Boston Red Sox rounds the bases after hitting a two-run home run in the first inning of a game against the Texas Rangers at Fenway Park on July 9, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA - JULY 9: Steve Pearce #25 of the Boston Red Sox rounds the bases after hitting a two-run home run in the first inning of a game against the Texas Rangers at Fenway Park on July 9, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS Bargain Bin
MLB DFS Bargain Bin /

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Monday, July 23rd Evening Slates

Welcome to a Monday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about format and content:

  • The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
  • Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
  • In this DFS MLB Bargain Bin Quick Hits version, I’ll suggest players that are typically value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). Naturally, check final pricing before making your lineup decisions, as I am not listing salaries in this edition.
  • This is not a position-by-position breakdown, but rather, I’m just identifying games where I think there’s value players in potentially favorable fantasy spots.
  • The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Monday evening’s slates!

MLB DFS Bargain Bin
MLB DFS Bargain Bin /

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Monday, July 23rd Bargain Pitcher 

Sean Newcomb, ATL at MIA

Newcomb’s price has come down a good bit due to some recent struggles, as he’s failed to get to the fifth inning in two of his last three trips to the mound. However, the lefty was thriving earlier in the season, as he’d logged quality five starts in five of the six outings prior to his current cold streak. He’s accomplished the feat in 11 of 19 starts overall this season, with two of those coming in back-to-back mid-May appearances against the Marlins.

Miami comes into Monday sporting a .203 average .256 wOBA, 60 wRC+, 22.1 percent strikeout rate and an anemic .091 ISO against left-handed pitching at home since June 1st, along with a -13.0 wRAA, the second-lowest in baseball during that stretch. Meanwhile, Newcomb has a .213 BAA over his 57 road frames, and he’s also been much more effective at limiting solid contact outside of SunTrust Park. Newcomb is allowing just a 15.6 percent line-drive rate and 28.2 percent hard contact rate on the road, numbers that pale in comparison to the respective 22.3 and 35.7 percent figures he’s yielded in those categories at home.

Park factor will also be in his favor Monday, as Marlins Park ranks as the second-friendliest stadium for pitchers (0.774 park factor),  which includes the third-lowest home-run factor rating (0.729). Miami’s projected starting lineup sports a .099 ISO and .295 wOBA versus left-handed pitching, which only serves to further Newcomb’s case, as does his 0.75 ERA and .125 BAA versus Miami in his aforementioned pair of starts against them this season.

Another pair of left-handers are also worthy of consideration Monday, as they also run into teams that have been very challenged against southpaws:

ALSO CONSIDER :

Eric Lauer, SD at NYM

Francisco Liriano, DET at KC

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Monday, July 23rd Evening Slates Quick Hits

  • The Red Sox’s Rick Porcello‘s 11-4 record is shiny on the surface, but as he’s shown on more than one occasion this season, he’s susceptible to getting pummeled from time to time (six starts with four earned runs or more surrendered). Porcello has particularly been vulnerable at times to right-handed hitters on the road (.279 average, .318 wOBA, 1.40 WHIP allowed). As such, Mark Trumbo (four career homers against Porcello), Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, Trey Mancini and Tim Beckham all deserve some consideration for large-field tournaments.
  • Meanwhile, the Orioles’ Kevin Gausman has allowed a .348 wOBA at Camden Yards, and several Red Sox have favorable resumes against him. Many of them (Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts) will be priced above value range, but Steve Pearce (.417 average in 12 at-bats) is certainly worthy of consideration, as well any other affordable Boston bats of either handedness.
  • It could be quite the pitcher’s duel in Philadelphia on Monday between Ross Stripling and Zach Eflin, but it’s worth noting that the red-hot Matt Kemp has a pair of homers in just five career at-bats against the Phillies starter. Kemp may not be at true value price on every site, but his salary has languished behind his stellar production, so certainly consider him for large-field tournaments where affordable.
  • The Twins’ Adalberto Mejia is likely to be a popular target Monday, and with good reason. The southpaw has struggled over a modest sample this season, and he’s allowed a .346 wOBA to lefty bats and a .350 figure to right-handed hitters over his career. All affordable Blue Jays bats who hit southpaws well are in play, including Teoscar Hernandez and even the same-handed Justin Smoak.
  • The getting could be just good on the other side of the matchup, as the Blue Jays’ Luis Santos has allowed  .358 and .351 wOBAs to left-handed and right-handed hitters, respectively, over his young career. Affordable Twins bats worthy of consideration include Joe Mauer, Jorge Polanco, Eduardo Escobar, Logan Morrison, Jake Cave and Mitch Garver. Lefty bats will also have the benefit of facing a Toronto bullpen that’s struggled against that handedness of hitter at home in July (.356 wOBA allowed).
  • The Pirates’ Trevor Williams has been a bit hard to figure out this season, and he’s had his share of troubles with right-handed hitters on the road (.335 wOBA, 39.6 percent hard contact rate allowed). While cheap Indians bats are hard to come by, Yan Gomes is in play. Also, Yonder Alonso is also worthy of considering despite the fact he hits left-handed, as he owns a .354 wOBA and .457 CXwOBA against righties.
  • The Reds’ Luis Castillo has been a much better pitcher at home, but his overall vulnerability to left-handed hitters (.384 wOBA, including 11 homers, allowed to that handedness) is hard to ignore. Consequently, value lefty Cardinals such as Kolten Wong and the switch-hitting Dexter Fowler make for interesting and likely very low-owned tournament plays, especially for large contests.
  • The Marlins’ Jose Urena has been hit hard in Marlins Park at times, and he’s yielded a .324 wOBA and 44.2 percent hard contact rate to left-handed hitters overall. As a result, Ender Inciarte, and where affordable, Nick Markakis, can both be rolled out for tournaments.
MLB DFS Bargain Bin
MLB DFS Bargain Bin /

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Monday, July 23rd Evening Slates Quick Hits (cont.)

  • The D-Backs’ Patrick Corbin has some very interesting splits for a left-handed pitcher, as he’s allowed a .360 wOBA to left-handed hitters, including .420 when facing them on the road. As a result, Jason Heyward becomes a viable option if he’s in the lineup Monday.
  • Corbin’s opposite number Luke Farrell has also proven highly susceptible to left-handed hitters (.363 wOBA, 23.3 percent line-drive rate, 36.7 percent hard contact rate allowed), so the likes of David Peralta, Daniel Descalso, Alex Avila and Jake Lamb can all be considered. Moreover, it’s worth noting the Cubs bullpen has allowed a 4.82 ERA to lefty bats at home in July.
  • The scoreboard at Globe Life Park could find itself working overtime Monday, as both Brett Anderson and Cole Hamels have proven capable of giving up plenty of offense this season. Anderson has allowed a .365 wOBA to lefty bats and a .422 wOBA to righty hitters, so all Rangers value bats are essentially in play.  That includes Shin-soo Choo, Adrian Beltre, Robinson Chirinos, Elvis Andrus and Joey Gallo, along with any other affordable Texas hitters in the lineup.
  • Hamels has his own share of issues, especially at home, where he’s allowed a .388 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Matt Chapman, Jonathon Lucroy and Chad Pinder (if he’s in the lineup) all have enjoyed plenty of career success against Hamels, while Jed Lowrie, Marcus Semien, Mark Canha and Stephen Piscotty are other right-handed value bats that are also worthy of consideration.
  • The Royals’ Heath Fillmyer has had plenty of trouble against right-handed hitters over a modest sample this season (.438 wOBA and 56.0 percent hard contact rate allowed to a 31-batter sample), so don’t hestitate to get the likes of John Hicks, Jose Iglesias and James McCann into the lineup, as well as any other cheap Tigers right-handed bats that might suit up Monday. Additionally, the Royals bullpen has had plenty of trouble with lefty hitters at home over the last month (5.89 ERA, .356 wOBA, 55.7 percent hard contact rate allowed), so Leonys Martin and switch hitters like Niko Goodrum and Jeimer Candelario can also be considered.
  • The Nationals’ Gio Gonzalez has actually been slightly better on the road, but Hernan Perez (.385 average over 13 plate appearances against him) can certainly be tabbed for larger-field tournaments, especially considering the .329 wOBA and 35.7 percent hard contact rate Gonzalez yields to righty bats outside Nationals Park. Lorenzo Cain (.444 wOBA, 41.2 percent hard contact rate against southpaws) is also certainly in play.
  • The Brewers’ Jhoulys Chacin doesn’t allow many home runs, but he does surrender a .342 wOBA to left-handed hitters, as well as a mammoth 49.3 percent hard contact rate to them at home. Matt Adams, Adam Eaton and Daniel Murphy are a trio of value lefty Nationals hitters I’d therefore consider.
  • The White Sox’s Lucas Giolito has allowed a .375 wOBA and 36.2 percent hard contact rate to lefty bats on the road, with the latter figure representing an appreciable bump from the 25.6 percent hard contact he surrenders to that handedness at home. Angels left-handed bats like Kole Calhoun and Luis Valbuena are certainly worthwhile as tournament flyers, and the fact the White Sox bullpen has allowed a .353 wOBA and 6.43 ERA to left-handed hitters on the road in the last month only strengthens their case.

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