DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Tuesday, July 24

Welcome into the Tuesday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have our normal huge slate on hand tonight so let’s get moving!

After we could actually see what the scores were on FanDuel, it turned into a solid DFS MLB night with a score of over 175 points on the main lineup. Daniel Murphy and Lourdes Gurriel paid off handsomely and it goes to show you that sometimes it’s just about the price and hoping the splits for a pitcher show up just a little bit. This is the second massive slate in a row so we’ve got our work cut out for us again tonight!

DFS MLB – Red Sox at Orioles

Red Sox Probable Starter – Drew Pomeranz, LHP 

6.81 ERA, 1.84 WHIP and 20.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .333 average, .370 wOBA, 13.3 K rate, 47.8 fly ball rate and 30.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .304 average, .406 wOBA, 22.4 K rate, 40.2 fly ball rate and 36.6 hard hit rate

We have quite the battle on our hands in this side of the game of who can be worse – the Orioles lineup against lefties or Pomeranz himself. As long as there’s a bad lefty on the mound, Danny Valencia is going to be in my player pool. He rates well tonight with a .227 ISO against left handed pitching and he’s carrying a .453 xwOBA against the fastball/curve combo that Pomeranz throws to righty hitters. Even as bad as the Orioles offense may look, I likely won’t try to take a shot at Pomeranz. He’s coming off the disabled list and would likely be on some type of pitch count and frankly, he’s given us no reason to want to play him anyways. Tim Beckham isn’t the worst play at shortstop since he’s cheap and has respectable numbers against the handedness. However, his strikeout rate is over 28 percent. That moves him to a GPP option for me. Mark Trumbo is probably the only other hitter I would think about from this side of the game.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Danny Valencia

Secondary options – Tim Beckham, Mark Trumbo

Orioles Probable Starter – Yefry Ramirez, RHP 

3.09 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 24.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .256 average, .353 wOBA, 25.0 K rate, 44.0 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .192 average, .229 wOBA, 24.5 K rate, 37.1 fly ball rate and 22.9 hard hit rate

We have a fairly small sample size with Ramirez here but he doesn’t appear to be a gas can pitcher. Now, he’s faced the Red Sox and the Yankees in two of his five starts. This starts didn’t go well but he’s been pretty solid outside of those. I would likely stick with the Sox lefties in this spot, fully knowing that J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts could go off on any pitcher. Mitch Moreland rates the best against the pitch types for Ramirez, which is basically a four seam and a changeup to lefty hitters. Surprisingly, he has the higher ISO over Andrew Benintendi and is $1,000 cheaper on FanDuel. It’s a big slate but I don’t think I’m going to go crazy with Boston in this spot. If you need a cheap punt, Brock Holt is a nice “last man in” that can get on base, maybe swipe a bag and get a run.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi

Secondary Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Brock Holt

Home Run Pick – Andrew Benintendi

DFS MLB – Dodgers at Phillies

Dodgers Probable Starter – Kenta Maeda, RHP 

3.12 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 29.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .252 average, .311 wOBA, 25.4 K rate, 33.9 fly ball rate and 39.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .199 average, .264 wOBA, 33.9 K rate, 35.6 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard hit rate

I’m not typically very excited to roster Maeda but he could be a pretty solid option tonight. The Phillies are back in the lead for strikeout rate against righties and that’s one of the strengths of Maeda’s game. I’m not looking towards Rhys Hoskins here tonight seeing how tough Maeda is against righty hitters. If you wanted to go with Phillies, I would look towards the lefties on the roster. Odubel Herrera is an option but doesn’t truly stand out by any metric. The highest xwOBA lefty hitter is actually Nick Williams. He’s $2,700 on FanDuel and while that’s not expensive, I just can’t muster much enthusiasm here for any Philies hitter. Carlos Santana would be the only other hitter I’d think about but I don’t see myself spending $3,400 on him.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Nick Williams, Carlos Santana, Odubel Herrera

Phillies Probable Starter – Aaron Nola, RHP 

2.30 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 26.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .194 average, .242 wOBA, 24.8 K rate, 31.4 fly ball rate and 23.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .198 average, .238 wOBA, 27.3 K rate, 28.1 fly ball rate and 26.7 hard hit rate

I always struggle with what to do with an elite pitcher against an offense that is as good as the Dodgers. As far as cash games go, I’m not going to pay top dollar for an arm that could get hammered by a good lineup. That’s not likely but it is a possibility. Seeing as how the splits are about dead even for Nola, you’re best to stick with the best hitters against righty pitching. That would mean chasing guys like Max Muncy, Joc Pederson and Manny Machado. Yasmani Grandal could be an option as well but this side of the game is GPP only. You just have to decide if you think this is a spot where Nola can get hit around or not. I would lean towards pitching Nola if I had to choose.

Dodgers Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Dodgers Stack

Home Run Pick – Nick Williams

DFS MLB – Twins at Blue Jays

Twins Probable Starter – Jose Berrios, RHP 

3.68 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 24.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .193 average, .272 wOBA, 25.2 K rate, 42.6 fly ball rate and 36.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .233 average, .292 wOBA, 24.6 K rate, 35.7 fly ball rate and 32.1 hard hit rate

It’s been a season of ups and downs so far this year for Berrios. When he is on, he’s virtually untouchable. When he’s been off, it’s been an adventure. Since he’s been reverse splits so far this year, this could be a pretty good game for him. The Jays have plenty of switch hitters that will face him left handed. That doesn’t make me too excited for hitters like Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales or Curtis Granderson. Teoscar Hernandez and Randall Grichuk would be the right handed hitters that might be able to hurt Berrios but they’re nothing more than GPP options. Hernandez has a .405 xwOBA against the pitch mix for Berrios. Stack the Jays if you feel like Berrios gets beat up but he’s an option to pitch tonight.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Randall Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Ryan Borucki, LHP 

3.52 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and 20.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .304 average, .301 wOBA, 20.8 K rate, 22.2 fly ball rate and 27.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .282 average, .334 wOBA, 20.0 K rate, 30.9 fly ball rate and 36.4 hard hit rate

It’s possible that Max Kepler is one of the better plays on the slate and I doubt many players will look his way tonight. Borucki has yet to give up a home run to either side of the plate but Kepler leads the Twins in ISO and wOBA against lefties among everyday players. The pitch data appears to be in his favor as well since Borucki throws his fastball 76 percent of the time. Kepler has an xwOBA of .500 against lefty fastballs this year. This could be a spot where Borucki gives up his first homer as a major leaguer. The highest ISO outside of Kepler is actually Eddie Rosario but it’s only .156 so that’s not terribly appealing. Despite the averages against him, Borucki is actually in play here as a cheap GPP option to fit in the bats. His only poor start came before the All-Star break and that was in Fenway so it’s tough to put much weight into that.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Max Kepler

Secondary Options – Brain Dozier, Eddie Rosario

Home Run Pick – Max Kepler

DFS MLB – Yankees at Rays

Yankees Probable Starter – Masahiro Tanaka, RHP 

4.54 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 24.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .234 average, .302 wOBA, 20.9 K rate, 29.2 fly ball rate and 29.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .225 average, .326 wOBA, 26.7 K rate, 44.6 fly ball rate and 39.9 hard hit rate

I can see some players head to Jake Bauer tonight. After all, he hit a homer last night and has an ISO of .243 against a pitcher that gives up home runs. A word of caution would be that Tanaka has given up almost triple the amount of homers to righties. In addition, Bauers doesn’t have a sample on Baseball Savant against the splitter. Tanaka throws that pitch 40 percent of the time and his second most used pitch is the slider. Bauers has a .245 xwOBA against righty sliders this year. C.J. Cron is the righty with some power that I’d want to chase, but his xwOBA is only .280 and that’s not something that I think is worth it. I expect Tanaka to give up a homer but I’m just not sure where it’s going to come from. The Rays usually aren’t highly owned so I’m not forcing them into this spot. Tanaka himself is a fine GPP play but the Rays offense has been putting in work lately.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Jake Bauers, C.J. Cron

Rays Probable Starter – TBD

Unfortunately for the Rays, there hasn’t been an announced starter yet because they lost lefty ace Blake Snell to the disabled list with a shoulder inflammation. We’re basically in the same boat as we were yesterday with Yankee hitters. I really have a hard time paying the big bucks for hitters in a bad park against a pitcher that I don’t know how they break down against each side of the plate. We should get more info during the day but at this point, I wouldn’t play any Yanks and spend my money elsewhere.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

ELite Options – TBD

Secondary Options – TBD

Home Run Pick – C.J. Cron

DFS MLB – Pirates at Indians

Pirates Probable Starter – Joe Musgrove, RHP 

4.08 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 21.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .312 average, .374 wOBA, 18.5 K rate, 32.9 fly ball rate and 35.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .235 average, .284 wOBA, 23.9 K rate, 39.1 fly ball rate and 31.8 hard hit rate

They may not have come through last night but the Indians are in just as good a spot tonight. Musgrove might not give up a ton of home runs but the Indians can score in a lot of different ways. Like most of the Pirates, Musgrove is fastball/sinker heavy and the Indians lefties just crush those two pitches. The lowest xwOBA of the big name lefties in the lineup is Jason Kipnis at .379. He’s the only lefty that’s under a .400 mark so I have no issue going right back to the well tonight with Cleveland bats. It’s hard to keep that offense down for long. Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley and Yonder Alonso all have wOBA’s over .350 against righties this season and that’s no accident.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Yonder Alonso, Michael Brantley

Secondary Options – Jason Kipnis

Indians Probable Starter – Shane Bieber, RHP 

3.53 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 23.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .337 average, .411 wOBA, 23.4 K rate, 39.1 fly ball rate and 51.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .241 average, .249 wOBA, 22.5 K rate, 25.4 fly ball rate and 38.8 hard hit rate

The Pirates offense is just white hot right now and some of their bats have to be in play again tonight. They just got done beating up on Corey Kluber last night(slightly aided by some poor Cleveland defense) and the lefties are in an elite spot. The prices for Gregory Polanco and Corey Dickerson have come up but I’m fine with paying it. Bieber has been awful against lefty hitters and those two have wOBA’s over .350 and ISO’s over .210. Polanco is actually up at .268 and he missed a double dong night last night by about two feet combined. Bieber has been better against righties but Starling Marte has a 16 game hitting streak going and even he has an ISO of .200 and a wOBA of .363 against righties. Bieber is in a tough spot tonight, although the Pirates offense is due for a poor day sooner or later.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Gregory Polanco, Corey Dickerson, Colin Moran

Secondary Options – Starling Marte

Home Run Pick – Gregory Polanco

DFS MLB – Padres at Mets

(This is a repeat from yesterdays write-up due to Wheeler being pushed back a day and Lauer being scratched. All the analysis stands today.)

Padres Probable Starter –  Eric Lauer, LHP 

4.87 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and 18.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .324 average, .385 wOBA, 10.3 K rate, 34.5 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .300 average, .362 wOBA, 21.3 K rate, 34.6 fly ball rate and 41.9 hard hit rate

It appears Yoenis Cespedes might be on the shelf for a while with yet another injury. That’s bad news for the Mets but if he is, Lauer becomes kind of interesting at his price point. He got hammered in his last start but had been productive in the starts before that. The Mets have also been what amounts to the weakest offense in baseball against southpaw pitching. They are dead last in average, OPS, wOBA and wRC+. Things do get better if we look at ISO because the Mets are 29th! Anything is better than the basement, right? No everyday regular player has an ISO over .195 so Lauer has a chance to keep the ball in the yard. The hitter with that mark is actually Brandon Nimmo, so if I had to play a Mets hitter it would likely be him. We’ve seen the ceiling for Lauer as he pitched to 57 points against the Dodgers two starts ago. That’s what you’re looking for in a low owned pitcher in GPP formats.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Brandon Nimmo, Jose Bautista

Mets Probable Starter – Zack Wheeler, RHP 

4.44 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 23.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .270 average, .339 wOBA, 24.3 K rate, 38.2 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .234 average, .276 wOBA, 22.0 K rate, 32.7 fly ball rate and 21.6 hard hit rate

Wheeler might be a little too expensive for my liking on FanDuel but I don’t blame you if you want to take your shot with him tonight. The Padres lead baseball in strikeout rate against righties and they rank dead last in OPS, ISO and wOBA on top of that. Wheeler has done a great job against righty hitters so far, which really lowers my interest in a lot of the Padres offense. The one exception on the right side of the plate is Wil Myers. Not only does he lead the team in ISO and wOBA but he carries a .541 xwOBA against righty fastballs. That’s the pitch that Wheeler throws the most at 62 percent of the time. Lefty Travis Jankowski and switch hitter Eric Hosmer are cheap enough that they can be used but I’m not rushing to put them in as core plays.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Wil Myers

Secondary Options – Travis Jankowski, Eric Hosmer

Home Run Pick – Wil Myers

DFS MLB – Cardinals at Reds

Cardinals Probable Starter – Austin Gomber, LHP 

*Career 14.1 IP* 3.77 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 17.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .360 average, .457 wOBA, 10.0 K rate, 27.3 fly ball rate and 36.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .083 average, .174 wOBA, 24.1 K rate, 40.0 fly ball rate and 35.3 hard hit rate

It’s a very small sample size so far, but Gomber has a massive gulf in his splits. I wonder how heavy the public will be on Reds hitters past Eugenio Suarez since the lefty on lefty matchup usually goes virtually unowned. Suarez himself is a lock for me at an absurd $3,400 on FanDuel. Based of of xwOBA, Joey Votto would be the best play but I’m a little skittish with his .104 ISO against lefties on the season. Scooter Gennett would be my favorite left play based off his .192 ISO against lefties but we’ll have to see if he’s back in the lineup tonight. Whoever catches between Curt Casali and Tucker Barnhart might end up in my lineup. They’re cheap and both carry a wOBA over .380 against lefties. I’m hoping it’s Casali because he’s $100 cheaper and his ISO is a whopping .254 higher than Barnhart. I’m going to not be putting a lot of weight in the splits and stick mostly with Suarez and the catcher from the Reds tonight.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eugenio Suarez(should be at least $4,000), starting catcher

Secondary Options – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Adam Duvall

Reds Probable Starter – Homer Bailey, RHP 

6.68 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and 13.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .288 average, .381 wOBA, 13.1 K rate, 38.2 fly ball rate and 34.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .319 average, .394 wOBA, 12.9 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 51.7 hard hit rate

Matt Carpenter just continues to be on a tear right now and he’s going to be hard to turn away from yet again. If you go to baseballsavant.com and click the “Daily Matchups” tab, you can see all the BvP data on the day. If you do that today and sort by xwOBA, you’ll see that the Cardinals have five of the 10 highest on the slate against Homer Bailey. Harrison Bader, Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong, Jose Martinez and Greg Garcia all have an xwOBA of .459 or better and Bailey is coming off the disabled list to pitch for the first time in about two months. To say I’m interested in Cardinals tonight would be an understatement and this game stack as a whole looks like a potential fantasy goldmine. My favorites are Carpenter and Molina, but the roster construction doesn’t let us play Suarez, a Reds catcher, Carpenter and Molina so we’re going to have to make some hard decisions at some point today.

Cardinals Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina, Harrison Bader

Secondary Options – Jose Martinez, Paul DeJong

Home Run Pick – Curt Casali

DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Cubs

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Clay Buchholz, RHP 

2.56 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 20.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .178 average, .228 wOBA, 19.2 K rate, 38.6 fly ball rate and 31.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .236 average, .307 wOBA, 21.3 K rate, 42.9 fly ball rate and 46.4 hard hit rate

I don’t understand how in the world Buchholz has been effective so far but the metrics aren’t exceptionally horrible. This could be a somewhat decent spot for him, although I’m not playing him to find out. Four of the top five in wOBA for regular players will hit lefty against Buchholz and that’s where he’s really limited the damage. The lone righty is Javier Baez who is interesting with the amount of fly balls Buchholz has given up. Baez has a .261 ISO which trails only Kyle Schwarber for the team lead against righty pitching this year. We all know that Baez can take any pitcher yard and that could well happen tonight. Unless I see something during the day that makes me change course, I’ll likely not have Cubs in my final lineup tonight.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Javier Baez

Secondary Options – Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo

Cubs Probable Starter – Kyle Hendricks, RHP 

3.99 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 18.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .215 average, .308 wOBA, 19.9 K rate, 37.2 fly ball rate and 32.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .275 average, .316 wOBA, 16.9 K rate, 26.7 fly ball rate and 32.5 hard hit rate

Hendricks has just been so glaringly average this year and I haven’t used him virtually at all this year. The only exception was when he suckered me in with the talk of him fixing his mechanics for a start in San Diego. That blew up in my face and you’re not getting me again tonight, Kyle! He’s the most annoying pitcher eve because he never pitches bad enough to get blown up so I would just stick with the splits here and play A.J. Pollock or Paul Goldschmidt. Pollock would be the better play by the numbers considering he has a higher wOBA and the ISO is almost 50 points higher. Even though they scored a lot of runs last night, I think I would tread lightly with the Diamondbacks here. Hendricks is just good enough to throw five innings of three run ball, which might not help you that much.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt

Secondary Options – David Peralta, Daniel Descalso

Home Run Pick – Javier Baez

DFS MLB – A’s at Rangers

A’s Probable Starter – Frankie Montas

As of this writing, we don’t have a probable starter for the A’s tonight. Montas will likely be called up from AAA for the occasion, but there is no official word yet. It’s obviously difficult to figure out exactly where we’re going to head with this game but Shin-soo Choo is going to be attractive no matter what. his price is down to $3,200 on FanDuel and that’s hard to pass up. His .411 wOBA against righties is a great fit at that price point and he can hold his own against lefties. The rest of the Texas lineup is dependent on what type of matchup they get so we’ll deal with that when we have the information we need.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Shin-soo Choo

Secondary options – TBD

Rangers Probable Starter – Mike Minor, LHP 

4.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 18.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .230 average, .292 wOBA, 20.0 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .259 average, .346 wOBA, 18.7 K rate, 47.2 fly ball rate and 41.8 hard hit rate

My goodness did the A’s put it on the Rangers last night. Basically everyone on the team produced and they have a similar matchup tonight. Minor has given up 14 home runs to righty hitters and many of the A’s are still extremely cheap. Stephen Piscotty has continued to smash with a three run bomb last night and Chad Pinder, Mark Canha, Marcus Semien, Khris Davis and Matt Chapman are all viable options. I understand that’s a lot but the A’s offense are in a glorious spot here. They get a mediocre lefty on the mound and should see the Texas bullpen again. You can sprinkle these hitters in however you please. My favorites are Canha, Semien and I think Piscotty might be a lock at $2,900 on FanDuel for cash games.

A’s Hitters to target 

Elite Options – Mark Canha, Stephen Piscotty, Chad Pinder

Secondary Options – Marcus Semien, Khris Davis, Matt Chapman

Home Run Pick – Mark Canha

DFS MLB – Nationals at Brewers

Nationals Probable Starter – Jeremy Hellickson, RHP 

3.29 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 19.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .242 average, .319 wOBA, 19.4 K rate, 27.5 fly ball rate and 28.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .214 average, .252 wOBA, 19.6 K rate, 31.3 fly ball rate and 29.3 hard hit rate

I always want to like Brewers when they’re at home but I frankly don’t think this is the spot for them. In 13 starts, Hellickson has given up more than three earned runs just once and that was when we knew before the game started that he was ill. I don’t see much of a ceiling for the Brewers by the numbers. Jesus Aguilar is in play against anyone right now with his .326 ISO and .409 wOBA against righties but it’s a steep price for a relatively poor matchup. Hellickson is really controlling the hard contact and I don’t want to have to rely on the Washington bullpen blowing up after Hellickson leaves the game. We can find better pitchers to attack with this many games on the slate.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Jesus Aguilar

Brewers Probable Starter – Junior Guerra, RHP 

3.23 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 23.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .240 average, .327 wOBA, 23.9 K rate, 39.4 fly ball rate and 42.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .223 average, .288 wOBA, 22.4 K rate, 41.7 fly ball rate and 42.8 hard hit rate

Guerra looks like a pitcher that should be giving up more runs with the amount of hard contact he’s giving up. This might be a game that his ERA starts to climb up as he utilizes the four seam/sinker combo over 70 percent of the time to both sides of the plate. The Nationals top hitters all look great by the xwOBA metric as they sit between .430 and .441. Bryce Harper and Juan Soto are technically on the better side of the splits but they also aren’t all that large. That means Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon are in play as well. All of these hitters are fairly pricey, sitting between $3,800 and $4,200. I’m likelier to stack those four than attempt to pick the right one-off since the splits are close. If I had to pick just one, Soto would be my favorite play. Daniel Murphy’s numbers look very poor since he started out so rough when he cam back from injury but he’s heating up. The price won’t stay so low much longer.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Bryce Harper, Juan Soto,

Secondary Options – Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner

Home Run Pick – Anthony Rendon

DFS MLB – Tigers at Royals

Tigers Probable Starter – Jordan Zimmermann, RHP 

3.71 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 23.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .233 average, .295 wOBA, 25.0 K rate, 44.3 fly ball rate and 31.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .252 average, .296 wOBA, 22.3 K rate, 50.0 fly ball rate and 30.6 hard hit rate

Fine, I’ll be the one to say it – I don’t think Zimmermann is that bad of a play tonight. I’m doubting it’s the route I”m going to take but I understand it if you want to. The strikeouts likely aren’t going to be there to attain a high ceiling but this Royals offense doesn’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers. Lucas Duda is the best pay by the numbers because he has a .442 xwOBA against the main pitches from Zimmermann and has the highest wOBA on the team against righty pitching. When Duda looks like the best play from an offense, that’s usually not going to be a good sign. I usually reserve Whit Merrifield for lefty pitching and I can’t find room for Mike Moustakas, even if he wasn’t kind of cold right now.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Lucas Duda, Mike Moustakas

Royals Probable Starter – Burch Smith, RHP 

5.98 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 23.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .329 average, .395 wOBA, 19.8 K rate, 39.7 fly ball rate and 41.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .245 average, .363 wOBA, 25.7 K rate, 45.3 fly ball rate and 50.8 hard hit rate

One of the better plays in the outfield might well be Leonys Martin because man he is cheap. Anytime he is under $3,000, he has to be in the player pool. He has a .409 xwOBA against the fastball and curve, which is around 79 percent of the pitches Burch throws to lefties. Nothing about the numbers for Smith look good against lefty hitters and I want to find a way to get Martin in, even though the outfield could be crowded quick. Jeimer Candelario is a really solid play as well but would likely be a GPP option because I want the Carpenter/Suarez combo in cash. I don’t think a Tigers stack with Nicholas Castellanos is out of line either against the very poor looking Smith tonight.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Leonys Martin, Jeimer Candelario

Secondary Options – Nicholas Castellanos

Home Run Pick – Jeimer Candelario

DFS MLB – Astros at Rockies

Astros Probable Pitcher – Gerrit Cole, RHP 

2.52 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 35.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .167 average, .255 wOBA, 40.4 K rate, 48.3 fly ball rate and 32.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .191 average, .260 wOBA, 30.0 K rate, 40.5 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard hit rate

This side of the game is a pure GPP play for me. I suppose there’s a way that Cole can succeed in Coors Field since he does throw the fastball a decent amount. However, the fly ball rates have to terrify you if you’d try to play him. Balls leave Coors Field by mistake so it’s a dangerous spot. He’s talented and could make it work and that’s why I don’t think I’m going to have a Rockies hitter. Charlie Blackmon is at one of the lowest prices in Coors we might ever see but Cole strikes out lefty hitters at a 40 percent clip. I’m going to pass on that even at a depressed price. It’s one of the few Coors games that I don’t want to have much exposure to Colorado.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Stack the best hitters in GPP’s

Rockies Probable Starter – Tyler Anderson, LHP 

3.72 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 23.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .274 average, .353 wOBA, 24.8 K rate, 39.4 fly ball rate and 30.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .219 average, .292 wOBA, 22.6 K rate, 38.7 fly ball rate and 31.1 hard hit rate

I will almost certainly have one lineup with a Astros stack because they’re one of the best teams in baseball against lefties. I’d be happier to play Alex Bregman ahead of Nolan Arenado tonight as Bregman has a .423 wOBA and a .295 ISO against lefties this year. George Springer is a fantastic play, as is Jose Altuve. All three of these hitters have an xwOBA over .400 against the four seam/cutter combo that Anderson throws about 65 percent of the time. These guys are great hitters to start with and we get a rare treat of them being in Coors. Since they are all expensive, It’s just a matter of how many you can fit and feel comfortable with the rest of the offense.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, George Springer

Secondary Options – Evan Gattis, Max Stassi

Home Run Pick – Alex Bregman

DFS MLB – White Sox at Angels

White Sox Probable Starter – Carlos Rodon, LHP 

3.56 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 19.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .222 average, .312 wOBA, 20.0 K rate, 32.1 fly ball rate and 42.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .206 average, .291 wOBA, 19.0 K rate, 48.5 fly ball rate and 23.2 hard hit rate

In his last start before the All-Star break, we saw what a healthy Rodon was capable of as he dominated the Cardinals lineup en route to a 52 point game on FanDuel. We all know Mike Trout is scary but this might be another Rodon smash spot. The Angels are in the bottom 10 in baseball in average, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ against lefty pitching. Rodon is a talented kid and he might be able to have his way with the lineup. Trout is a fine play and if you wanted to punt with Jefry Marte and his .262 ISO, I wouldn’t hate you. I’m just more excited about Rodon than anything else in this game tonight. The only negative for Rodon is the Angels have a very low strikeout rate as a team.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mike Trout

Secondary Options – Jefry Marte, Andrelton Simmons

Angels Probable Starter – Felix Pena, RHP 

3.42 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 28.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .292 average, .369 wOBA, 18.9 K rate, 28.9 fly ball rate and 42.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .218 average, .279 wOBA, 36.7 K rate, 30.3 fly ball rate and 48.5 hard hit rate

Can I interest you in some Yoan Moncada this evening? Seeing how poorly Pena is against lefty hitters has my attention and that’s the side of the plate that Moncada is better on. Playing Moncada is always dangerous because his strikeout rate is over 34 percent so maybe he’s a GPP play. Still, Pena isn’t striking out many lefties so Moncada has a better chance to make contact. Daniel Palka is always an option as well but he’s got the same issues that Moncada does. It might seem crazy, but Pena isn’t the worst play in tournaments tonight. If he keeps the lefties in check, he dominates the righty hitting he’s seen so far.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Yoan Moncada, Daniel Palka(GPP for both)

Secondary Options – Yolmer Sanchez

Home Run Pick – Mike Trout

DFS MLB – Giants at Mariners

Giants Probable Starter – Andrew Suarez, LHP 

3.94 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 22.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .179 average, .205 wOBA, 24.4 K rate, 23.0 fly ball rate and 25.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .284 average, .341 wOBA, 22.0 K rate, 29.0 fly ball rate and 45.4 hard hit rate

One of the best late night hammers on this slate is Nelson Cruz. Anytime he faces a lefty at home, it’s smash spot and Suarez is one that struggles significantly with righty hitters. Cruz has a 1.043 OPS, .368 ISO and a .425 wOBA against lefties this season. The 2-3-4 stack of Jean Segura, Mitch hanger and Cruz is an excellent stack that could rocket you up leaderboards late. The price for Cruz makes it hard to pass up and one of my decisions tonight is Cruz or Gregory Polanco because they are the same price. I don’t think Suarez is so bad that we need to look past the main three hitters that we listed already with Cruz leading the pack.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nelson Cruz

Secondary Options – Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger

Mariners Probable Starter – James Paxton, LHP 

3.70 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 32.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .311 average, .366 wOBA, 35.7 K rate, 23.6 fly ball rate and 29.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .193 average, .261 wOBA, 31.3 K rate, 45.3 fly ball rate and 37.1 hard hit rate

Provided James Paxton isn’t on a pitch count in this spot, I’m breaking my rule of not using pitchers fresh off the disabled list. Paxton is a beast when he’s healthy and I can’t see the Giants hitters getting to him if he’s healthy. Here’s one of the biggest factors pointing me towards Paxton – there is so much rain on the East Coast, I think some of those high end pitching options might get washed out. I would rather save $1,200 and not pitch Jose Berrios. Brandon Crawford would be an absolutely contrarian play tonight because he’s a lefty who hits lefties with a .198 ISO and .345 wOBA. That’s somehow been the weakness for Paxton so far but I wouldn’t think about it in anything but GPP formats.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Brandon Crawford

Home Run Pick – Nelson Cruz

DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup

P – James Paxton

C/1B – Curt Casali

2B – Yoan Moncada

3B – Eugenio Suarez 

SS – Paul DeJong 

OF – Leonys Martin, Nelson Cruz, Harrison Bader 

Utility – Alex Bregman 

I’ll be perfectly blunt that I’m not the happiest with this lineup. There’s just too many offenses that I want a piece of and it’s hard to prioritize them in the correct order. For now, I’ll put Paxton in because his game isn’t under the threat of getting rained out. We’ll use the Reds mini stack with Casali and Suarez. I’m really upset I don’t have Matt Carpenter but walking away from Alex Bregman against a lefty in Coors seems like a poor idea. We need a little bit of Cardinals exposure against Bailey so we snag DeJong and Bader. Lastly, we use Martin and Cruz as elite one-offs, though I’m mad Gregory Polanco is on the sideline.

The Core – James Paxton(pending pitch count), Eugenio Suarez, Curt Casali

Pitching to Consider 

High End – James Paxton, Aaron Nola, Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios

Mid-Range – Zack Wheeler, Eric Lauer, Masahiro Tanaka, Carlos Rodon

Punts – Felix Pena

Stacks to Consider – Houston Astros, Cardinals/Reds game stack, Pirates/Indians game stack, Detroit Tigers, Oakland A’s

Next: DFS PGA: RBC Canadian Open

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.