MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Tuesday July 24
Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
After a few days of traveling to start my family vacation, with GASP….NO WIFI…I am back here on Tuesday after taking two days off from MLB DFS to get us started on this slate. It was nice to turn off the Twitter notifications, not worry about weather or line-ups and essentially ignore the outside world for a few days but I am sure you all missed my horrendous takes and Dad jokes so let’s jump right back in.
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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Starting Pitching Overview:
One look at this slate and I wondered if maybe I should take another day off from the WIFI as we have weather issues galore and seemingly all the top-end arms are in less than ideal spots. Normally we would be happy dropping down at pitcher with a game in Coors Field, but with Gerrit Cole and Tyler Anderson on the mound, this is not the “jam in as many Coors bats as possible” kind of slate.
A similar weather night when compared to last night w/2 exceptions: 1) CLE shouldn't be as wet as last night (still can't rule out a downpour) and 2) COL will see tstorms. Delay risks in BAL, PHI, NYM, CLE and COL; BAL, PHI have some level of PPD/rain-shortened threat
— Mark Paquette; DFS meteorologist (@DFSMLBWeather) July 24, 2018
I find it hard to convince myself on this slate to pay up for Aaron Nola or Kenta Maeda against two dangerous offenses in Philadelphia with the wind blowing out at 12 MPH or James Paxton in his first start off the D.L. after only throwing 40 pitches in his last bullpen session so paying down at pitcher may be the ideal route tonight.
Zack Wheeler ($15.7K) gets a home match-up against the Padres and steps to the mound in tremendous recent form, with 7 or more K’s in five of his last six starts with 15 fantasy points in every outing and 20 or more FPTS in three of those seven outings which show you the kind of ceiling he has when he is on. Over those six starts, Wheeler has a 27% K rate and 12.5% swinging strike rate and will take on a Padres team with a 25.7% K rate over the last month which is the second highest in all of baseball. Wheeler looks to be a safe cash game play with significant K upside and when you consider there is no “slam dunk” SP1 on this slate, I think Wheeler could be in the conversation for one of the top raw point arms on the night.
Felix Pena ($11K) gets one of the best match-ups on the board with the White Sox and steps to the mound as a -160 home favorite. Pena’s biggest downside is that he rarely goes deep into games, throwing around 80 pitches per game but that has not stopped him from putting up 21 and 22 fantasy points in two of his last three outings. Over his last five starts, Pena has put up a 30% K rate with a 13.8% K rate so the metrics scream upside assuming Pena can go 5-6 innings in this game, making him one of the best point per dollar plays on the board.
Austin Gomber ($8K) is a punt play SP2 option on this slate after we saw fellow rookie Daniel Poncedeleon throw a no-hitter over 7 innings, which could artificially inflate the ownership here but I still have some interest in the left-hander against the Reds. Per FanGraphs, the scouting report on Gomber notes a deceptive delivery which is something I always love to target in a player’s first start as Major League hitters do not yet have tape on him and may struggle the first time through.
"Gomber’s command backed up a bit in 2017, but his fastball ticked higher as the year went on — it’s now more comfortably in the low 90s than upper 80s — and it plays up due to deception, with the ball suddenly appearing out from behind his head, much as it does for Yankees LHP Jordan Montgomery.Gomber keeps the ball down, will challenge righties inside with his fastball, can locate his curveball in the zone, and mixes in a viable changeup."
Gomber has a 26.6% K rate in AAA this season so he has the K upside that could pay off even though he has only thrown only 71 and 80 pitches in his previous two outings at AAA prior to his call-up.
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots:
I love slates like this where we have a game in Coors Field that I do not intend to target because the 10.5 run total will get its share of ownership regardless of who is on the mound. On slates like this, a team like the Cleveland Indians could go over-looked despite their 5.22 run total and the fact they are at home makes them an even better play against RHP Joe Musgrove. Musgrove on the season has a .185 ISO against LHB and a 36% hard contact rate and the Indians as we know are loaded with left-handed power with Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Yonder Alonso and Jose Ramirez all sporting .200+ ISO marks against RHP this season with 37% or higher HC rates, making them my favorite stack on this Main Slate.
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It seems odd that even with Coors on the slate, the highest game total is Oakland and Texas but with 100 degree temperatures and Mike Minor/Frankie Montas pitching, I suppose the 11 run total is warranted and expected. Montas is giving up a .204 ISO mark to left-handed batters and Minor is surrendering a .220 ISO to hitters from both sides of the plate so we can load up on A’s hitters from both sides as well as the Rangers left-handed power.
On the Rangers side of the game, I am mostly looking towards Shin-Soo Choo and Joey Gallo who have .250 ISO marks each against RHP this season while on the A’s side of the game, it is hard for me to pass on the power upside of Khris Davis and his .218 ISO mark against LHP this season.
The nice part of this game stack is that every single player other than Choo at $9.6K is under $9K which makes it a cost-effective stack to build around the Indians, Coors or any top end arm you may look to build around tonight. Enjoy the slate – I am off to another day of family vacation – hopefully I will see you at the top of the leaderboard tonight!
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!