FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups: Wednesday July 25

Welcome to the FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups column. This is the Wednesday, July 25th 2018 edition. We’re a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you build a DFS MLB optimal lineup for each slate.

While we missed on nine inning Masahiro Tanaka shutout win against the Rays in Tampa, and the 64 FanDuel MLB points, we still had a solid night of wins in both Cash and GPP plays. In fact, our favorite pitcher play last night, Angels hurler Felix Pena ($7,100), was not only in our winning lineups, but also several other top winning lineups for the Main slate.

Another bit play last night was stacking the Oakland Athletics offense, depending on who you used from the lineup. There was a ton of value in the A’s lineup last night, but Khris Davis ($3,700) and Jed Lowrie ($3,100) both had big nights as well, combining for over 63 FanDuel MLB points.

Wednesday’s slate will be different. First of all, we’re focused on both the Early Only and Main slate, with a split MLB schedule for the day. Also, the pitching options in the two slates provide less to be desired at the pitching position, but plenty of juicy offensive stacks.

That actually makes these slates more difficult to win, because there could be many offensive stacking combinations in winning lineups.

Before we get there, a reminder to never take a DFS MLB optimal lineup as ‘bible’ for your personal lineup each day. Use the suggestions as guidance. Also, make sure you follow final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR or me @mattymcmatt17 look for late breaking lineup news.

Weather Note: The weather pattern in the eastern half of the United States continues to make lineups difficult to gauge today. Once again, the Mets, Padres, Dodgers, and Phillies are all at risk of a delay, and have some minor postponement risk as well. If you’re playing the Early Only slate, pay attention to those forecasts all morning.

For the Main slate, the Red Sox and Orioles have clear delay and postponement risks again. The rain-train continues in the D.C./Baltimore area beginning in the afternoon and runs through the evening. The Astros and Rockies game also has storm risks, likely delaying the start of the game.

For now, we’re assuming all four games get in, but we may not load up too heavy on each team today. With weather-related considerations addressed, let’s get to the top pitching options…

FanDuel MLB: Top Pitcher Early Only Slate

OK, I’ll admit, I didn’t not land anywhere near where I thought I’d land at pitcher for the Early Only FanDuel MLB slate today. In fact, I’m nervous about our top play. How did we get there? Well, starting with Trevor Bauer ($11,500), I was unimpressed with the rest of the options tonight.

If you look at the xFIP’s of each of these starters over the last 30 days, Bauer has the second best, 3.08, along with a solid 29.8% K-rate. But, oddly the match up isn’t great. The Pirates offense has been hot these week, including games already played against the Indians, and their K-rate against RHP’s is only around 21% this month.

This isn’t an ideal setup for Trevor, and if we’re paying over $11K at the pitcher spot, it needs to be perfect.

Danny Duffy ($8,800) is a solid play against the Tigers. I mean, he’s fanned 21 hitters in his last three starts, against the Twins twice and the White Sox. In fact, Duffy is my fall-back play. But, even this pick makes me nervous. Duffy has a 4.07 xFIP over the last month that includes giving up six runs to the Indians in early July.

In fact, many of the $7K to $9K pitching plays carry similar risk to our favorite pitcher play of the Early Only slate. That’s why we like Nathan Eovaldi ($6,900) this afternoon. Yes, I get it…’but the Yankees.’ I don’t think I’ve played a pitcher against the Yankees all season.

But here’s the case. Over the last month, Eovaldi has the best xFIP of all starting pitchers in this slate, a low 2.97. That’s impressive. Also, Nathan has a high 28.8% K-rate in that time. Oh, but not against the Yankees right?

Well, while the Yanks have been productive against RHP’s in July, 114 wRC+, they’re tied with the Phillies for eight highest K-rate of 23.5%.

So the logic is this; if Eovaldi has a rough outing but still gets plenty of strikeouts, he’ll likely land in the 20 to 30 FanDuel MLB point range on a reasonable price. He did that against the Yankees in June. But, he has 40 to 50 point potential on a very cheap salary, with very low ownership. I mean, who would be dumb enough to pick Eovaldi against the Yankees right? Oh, that’s me.

FanDuel MLB: Top Pitcher Main Slate

Unlike the Early Only slate, we’re comfortable paying up at Pitcher for the Main FanDuel MLB slate Wednesday night. Why? Well, most of the other pitching options make us very nervous. Honestly, Jon Gray ($8,200) was the starting pitcher we like most tonight, purely based on metrics. But against the Astros in Coors Field? No thanks.

Charlie Morton ($9,500) may have a solid night in Coors Field too, but while Morton is throwing at a high velocity this season, he’s also throwing a curve ball, which has terrible results in this stadium environment. He’ll need to stick to his fastball, which also has obvious risks.

While James Shields ($7,300) and Tyler Skaggs ($9,300) are facing each other and have been hot lately, their pitching metrics over the last month are…meh. I mean, we’re getting pitchers who hover around a 20% K-rate in the last 30 days, for a fairly expensive price tag. Again, no thanks.

So, even with the weather risk tonight, our favorite pitching play is David Price ($9,000). In the last month, Price has a solid 3.61 xFIP and an even better 27.1% K-rate. The Orioles low 81 wRC+ against LHP’s in July makes this play more confident, even with a low 21% K-rate in this scenario over the last month.

While the K-rate concerns me, Price has already faced most of this O’s lineup earlier in the season and he fanned eight batters for 55 FanDuel MLB points. Paying $9,000 for a shot at 40 to 50 points, considering the options tonight, seems like a reasonable price.

And yes, we need a fall-back because of the rain and storm potential in Baltimore. I’d love to go with a sneaky Jon Gray pick, and he is an option, we but prefer a safer Edwin Jackson ($7,600) against the Rangers in Arlington, TX tonight.

FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks Early Only Slate

For each of the slates today, we’re going to focus on a couple of key starting pitcher metrics and work our way into the stats from there. First, we love home runs in FanDuel MLB, the most offensive points are generated that way. Fortunately, there is plenty of high home runs per nine innings in this slate.

Next, we’re focused on high xFIP’s, generally poor pitching results, and higher ERA/WHIP than other starting pitchers. We also want to consider how long each starter may stay in the game, versus their relief pitching.

The Early Only slate is the bigger of the two slates and picking the offensive stacks seemed daunting at first, but the metrics call out some clear winners. First of all, there’s risk playing the Phillies and Dodgers game due to weather. But Walker Buehler has been sub-par over the last month, and he’s pitching against a solid Phillies offense in a hitter-friendly park.

Stacking the Phillies is an attractive play, assuming the weather holds out. The weather in Cincinnati appears to be OK, and Sal Romano is also struggling lately, so stacking the Cardinals is another solid option.

But, our favorite offensive stacks are in the same game in Chicago. With Jon Lester, finally, starting to fall apart over the last month, and Robbie Ray struggling this season, we love the idea of stacking the Cubs and Diamondbacks for the Early Only slate.

Both of these offenses have been hot this week. But better, in the last 30 days, Lester has a horrendous 5.35 xFIP, followed by Ray with a bad 4.30 result. Also, Jon is giving up just under two home runs per nine, while Ray is giving up nearly 2.5 home runs per nine innings. This game should have fireworks, and we want our lineup to be apart of it.

FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks Main Slate

Sticking with the focus on home runs per nine innings and high xFIPs for the Main slate, the options are unfortunately slim. But one very obvious play is the Red Sox against Dylan Bundy and the Orioles.

The Red Sox obvious offensive dominance this season aside, Bundy is giving up 3.65 home runs per nine innings in the last month. Dylan also carries a very terrible 6.61 xFIP in that time. In fact, the Red Sox are so much of a slam dunk, expect high ownership. We also recommend targeting some of their cheaper bats in your stack, for better value.

Our other favorite stack? We’re going right back to Arlington, TX, again this week, and stacking our favorite Oakland Athletics bats. Martin Perez and his lovely 8.05 ERA, for the season, is back on the mound and the A’s are hot off a 13 run comeback win last night.

Three of our favorite A’s bats to stack tonight are Marcus Semien ($3,600), dirt-cheap second hitter Chad Pinder ($2,900), and Matt Chapman ($3,600) at third base. Chapman has the greatest home run potential of the group, but they should all put up double-digit points tonight.

FanDuel MLB: Summary and Example Lineup

For the Early Only FanDuel MLB slate on Wednesday, we’re taking on some risk at the pitcher spot, but mostly because we feel all pitchers have a lot of risk and we believe Eovaldi has the best spot. Even against the Yankees.

Also for the Early Only slate, we’re stacking the Cubs and Diamondbacks game. We expect explosive offensive numbers in the game at Wrigley Field, with both pitchers giving up a lot of runs and home runs lately. And to put a cherry on top of that lineup, we’re playing Eugenio Suarez, once again, against the Cardinals in the Great American Ballpark Wednesday afternoon.

For the Main FanDuel MLB slate, we’re sweating out the weather in Baltimore and grabbing Red Sox southpaw Price as our top pitcher pick. For a pitching fall-back, if weather gets bad toward lock, we’re going with a safe Edwin Jackson snag.

For offensive stacks in the Main slate, we’re sticking with the Red Sox again, facing the worst pitching metrics of the slate in Bundy. And again, for the third straight day, we love the A’s offense tonight.

But, we need to mix up the Main slate lineup a bit, to make sure we have more than two teams. So, we’re going with two hot high-value plays. Leury Garcia ($2,400) has quietly produced several double-digit FanDuel MLB point games lately, and Kole Calhoun ($2,900) continues to lead off for the Halos. We’re playing both as value picks tonight.

With that summary in mind, here’s a look at a sample lineup for the MAIN FanDuel MLB slate on Wednesday, July 25th 2018:

FanDuel MLB Main Slate Sample Lineup:                 FanDuel MLB Early Only Sample Lineup: 

P               Nathan Eovaldi ($6,900)                               P                David Price ($9,000)

C/1B        Paul Goldschmidt ($4,100)                          C/1B         Mitch Moreland ($3,500)

2B             Javier Baez ($4,100)                                      2B              Eduardo Nunez ($2,700)

3B             Eugenio Suarez ($3,600)                              3B             Matt Chapman ($3,600)

SS             Addison Russell ($3,100)                             SS              Marcus Semien ($3,600)

OF             Jon Jay ($2,700)                                               OF             Chad Pinder ($2,900)

OF             David Peralta ($3,400)                                  OF             Andrew Benintendi ($4,300)

OF             Jason Heyward ($3,000)                               OF             Leury Garcia ($2,400)

UTIL          Anthony Rizzo ($4,000)                                UTIL         Kole Calhoun ($2,900)

Remaining Salary: $100                                                 Remaining Salary: $100

Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for today. You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel MLB lineups.  We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.

Next: MLB DFS Game by Game Breakdown

Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your DFS news and analysis across MLB, PGA, and NASCAR this summer!