Could Auburn repeat as champions of the SEC West and contend for a spot in the playoff in 2018? Or will they regress from a season ago and fall short of their 2017 win total?
Auburn went 7-1 in the SEC in 2017 and finished the regular season with a 10-2 record. They were a game away from securing a spot in the four-team playoff but ended the season with back to back losses against Georgia in the SEC Title game and UCF in the Peach Bowl to finish with an overall record of 10-4.
As disappointing as the pair of late-season losses may have been, a 26-14 Iron Bowl win over Alabama, for all intents and purposes, equates to a successful season, not to mention the biggest win for the program — signing Gus Malzahn to a seven-year $49 million contract extension. In a day, age and profession where continuity and stability are fleeting, Auburn can hang their hat on the fact that they did as much to solidify the future of their program in 2017 as any team in college football has in recent memory.
As if locking in Malzahn hadn’t been enough, Tennessee’s choice to hire Jeremy Pruitt as head coach over Auburn defensive coordinator, Kevin Steele, also ensured Steele’s place on the Auburn staff for at least the 2018 season. For the first time since 2014, Gus Malzahn is set to enter a season returning both his starting quarterback and defensive coordinator from the previous season.
On the offensive side of the ball, junior quarterback, Jarrett Stidham, who threw for over 3,000 yards a season ago, leads a unit with seven returning starters from last year. Stidham is on the preseason watch list for the Heisman, Maxwell Award and several other awards in addition to being a popular pick among preseason all-conference team predictors. All three of his leading receivers from 2017 are returning (Ryan Davis, Darius Slayton and Will Hastings). The trio combined for just under 2,000 yards and will be looking to improve on that in 2018.
Malzahn’s offense will have to replace three starters on the offensive line and a void in the running game left by Kerryon Johnson, who accounted for 1,391 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2017. With a stable of running backs with at least some experience and a couple highly touted freshman joining the program, Auburn should be able to field enough of a running game to balance out Stidham’s passing attack. Consistency and cohesion, or lack thereof, on the offensive line is the biggest area of concern and will likely have a lot to do with the outcome of Auburn’s 2018 season.
Defensively, Auburn returns six starters. In stark contrast to the offense though, Kevin Steele’s defense has experience and talent in the trenches but is thin and unproven at the skill positions. With All-SEC corner, Carlton Davis, and both starting safeties from a year ago gone, Steele and defensive backs coach, Greg Brown, will have their work cut out shoring up the back-end on defense that will be tested early and often.
Auburn’s 2018 schedule doesn’t include a true road game until the first week of October. That being said, between a neutral site match-up with Washington to open the season and LSU coming to Jordan-Hare Stadium in week three, Auburn will have to find the answers to the potential questions along the offensive line and defensive backfield. And quickly.
Auburn schedule
- Sat, Sept. 1 vs. Washington (neutral site)
- Sat, Sept. 8 vs. Alabama State
- Sat, Sept. 15 vs. LSU
- Sat, Sept. 22 vs. Arkansas
- Sat, Sept. 29 vs. Southern Miss
- Sat, Oct. 6 at Mississippi State
- Sat, Oct. 13 vs. Tennessee
- Sat, Oct. 20 Ole Miss
- Sat, Nov. 3 vs. Texas A&M
- Sat, Nov. 10 at Georgia
- Sat, Nov. 17 vs. Liberty
- Sat, Nov. 24 at Alabama
Best-case scenario: 11-1
The mere mention of an 11-win season sets lofty expectations about just how good Auburn can be in 2018, especially given their schedule. Considering the fact that they beat both Georgia and Alabama in 2017 and return so many key pieces from that team, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities.
If the back-end on defense can hold its own or at least give Stidham and the offense a fighting chance, they could easily knock off Washington. The same goes for the offensive line against LSU.
Auburn should be favored in every other game on their schedule up until Georgia in Athens in early November. If Jarrett Stidham’s plays up to or above expectations and a couple of position groups in question heading into the season develop over the course of the season, the Tigers will be capable of hanging with both Georgia and Alabama. I Just don’t see them being able to handle both within two weeks of each other, especially with both being on the road.
Worst-case scenario: 8-4
Washington is a preseason top-five team and returns most of a roster that had a top-20 offense and a top-five defense last year. If Auburn stumbles out of the gates, particularly with regards to their pass defense, Jake Browning could make things ugly week one.
LSU, who beat Auburn last season, and Mississippi State will both be tough opponents and either could deal the Tigers an early season loss, especially either is overlooked.
No matter how well Auburn’s season goes through October, late-season road games at Georgia and Alabama could both easily be L’s.
Most likely outcome: 10-2 or 9-3
Auburn will probably learn as much about themselves in week one as any team in the country. An early win could create momentum to carry them through September and October before they run into Georgia and Alabama. They could just as easily take a loss against Washington and rebound or come away with a win then stumble against LSU, Mississippi State, or even Texas A&M before their November gauntlet.
I think the combination of Gus Malzahn’s schemes/play calling and Stidham’s play at quarterback will be enough to carry the team through the early part of the season as the offensive line and defensive backs figure things out. I don’t see them being good enough win more than three of the five games against Washington, LSU, Mississippi State, Georgia, and Alabama.
But depending on how the cards fall across the rest of the upper echelon of college football, a 10-2 season could still easily mean a trip to the SEC Championship game and/or a place in the college football playoff.