DraftKings Main MLB Picks July 26: Strasburg is worth the price
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Main MLB Picks July 26: Strasburg is worth the price
We have a nine game main slate, but there still aren’t a plethora of aces like you may think. Only one is priced in five figures, but there are three more over $9,000. The middle tier is barren here, so we need to find one or two good non-chalk options in the bargain tier. What stands out tonight? Let’s check it out!
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The chance of rain picks up in Pittsburgh as the night goes on, but they should have no problems getting through most of this game. Pitchers and bats are all safe. There is a chance of a delay in Cincinnati, but the game should play without much of an issue.
There is a 12 mph wind blowing out to left in Fenway. That’s all the Red Sox power needs! The customary wind out of AT&T Park is also there.
We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!
For you first time players, if you would like $20 in free DraftKings dollars, use this link for the referral bonus with your first deposit of $5 or more! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn those DraftKings dollars into more!
Top Tier:
Stephen Strasburg ($12,000): The Marlins are only hitting .223 against Strasburg in 139 at bats with only two homers and seven runs with 33 strikeouts. Those are some really good numbers. The Marlins are mostly a pesky offense, especially at home. However, this is definitely a pitcher’s park. This is a place to go after the Marlins, I think. This stadium isn’t conducive to offense. Strasburg is easily the most expensive, but he just may be worth it.
David Price ($9,500): Don’t be shocked if the Red Sox roll Price back out there either tonight or tomorrow. He recorded only three outs before the rains came. If he does start this game, there is potential against a Twins team that has had issues with lefties lately, and they strike out a lot. Just be aware that Price gave up three runs to them while striking out only three earlier this season in Minneapolis. If Price is out there, I would hope for a price reduction. At this mark, he looks overpriced considering what’s around him.
Nick Kingham ($9,400): Kingham has been outstanding at home, posting a 2.90 ERA in five starts with 32 strikeouts in 31 innings. Now he gets a Mets team that just lost Yoenis Cespedes for the year. This offense has struggled for most of the season without him, and that isn’t going to change. This is a pitcher’s park, and Kingham is proof of that. There is strong potential for a really good game here, and very little potential for a blowup. I like Kingham more in cash games, but the upside is there for GPP usage as well.
Middle Tier:
Rich Hill ($9,200): This is an interesting spot for Hill considering that he holds the platoon advantage in a ballpark that caters to lefties. The problem here is that Hill is really not having a good year. The Braves are only hitting .222 with four runs in 27 at bats with seven strikeouts. Those are decent numbers, but I need more than decent to chase Hill here. The season numbers worry me.
Sonny Gray ($8,200): Here we go again. Gray is in a seemingly great spot. The Royals are hitting just .203 against Gray with no homers and five runs in 74 at bats, but they have also struck out only 12 times. This low strikeout total may be the thing that chases me off of this. Gray has been a disaster in Yankee Stadium. Gray has a 6.55 ERA in 15 career starts in Yankee Stadium. He has been even worse this year, with a 7.62 ERA there in nine starts. There is a lot of risk here, but come on….it’s the Royals. Gray racked up 26.4 DraftKings points on them in Kansas City.
Dereck Rodriguez ($7,900): Rodriguez is off to a great start to his career, especially at home. He has a 2.28 ERA in four home starts. Rodriguez mixed pitches well, which could work to baffle this Milwaukee lineup. Milwaukee is kind of an all or nothing offense right now, and there are enough lefties to give Rodriguez problems. That said, Rodriguez matches up pretty well with this team.
Bargain Pitchers:
Ranger Suarez ($7,100): For tonight, I think you have to be all in or all out on Ranger Suarez. The rookie lefty posted a 2.76 ERA in 12 starts at AA Reading and a 0.57 ERA in three starts at AAA Lehigh Valley. The Reds have gone cold lately, but he amount of right handed power in this lineup scares me. His dominant performance in the minors this year makes me think he could have a good debut against the Reds, but the fact that he isn’t a highly touted prospect makes me a bit nervous.
Ryan Yarbrough ($6,900): How bad are the Orioles? They can’t even get to lefties with a stable full of right handed batters! The Rays held Yarbrough out yesterday, so he is going to get the bulk of the innings here. He may even start the game, but that doesn’t matter to us. I would rather he doesn’t start so we are still in line for a win even if he only goes four innings. However, with the way the Rays’ pen has been overworked lately, the Rays are going to let Yarbrough go as long as he can. He is underpriced here against a weak Baltimore offense.
Steven Matz ($6,300): The stats back up using Matz. He has a 3.00 ERA in nine road starts, he picked up 19.6 DraftKings points against the Pirates earlier this year, and the Pirates have just one homer and three runs in 32 at bats with nine strikeouts. However, the Pirates are one of the hottest offenses going right now. They got their knocks off of a pretty stout Indians staff earlier this week. the Pirates are also hitting .281 in those 32 at bats, so there is potential for this to go horribly wrong. That said, Matz is too talented to be priced this low.
New York Yankees vs. Jake Junis:
Junis has faced the Yankees twice in his career. He actually picked up a win against them earlier this year, despite not being all that sharp in that game. Both Greg Bird and Judge have homered off of Junis so far. Garnder is 2-5 with a pair of RBI. Aaron Hicks has three singles in three at bats. I also like Stanton and Gregorius here. Junis has regressed since his solid start against the Yankees, and that was in Kansas City. Yankee Stadium is a whole different animal.
Boston Red Sox vs. Kyle Gibson:
Gibson can be hard to stack on because he is in the middle of his best season, and he has pitched much better on the road. That said, Fenway is very friendly to right handed power even when the wind isn’t blowing out to left. This isn’t the day to get cute. Boston is hitting .279 with six homers and 15 runs in 104 at bats off of Gibson. Mookie has three of those homers. J.D. Martinez has two. Jackie Bradley has the other. All of them are in play, and I really can’t fault using Xander or Benintendi either. Last night’s onslaught got rained out, but the Red Sox could do the same tonight.
Minnesota Twins vs. Brian Johnson*:
If Price ends up starting this game, the stack is off. However, if Johnson is the starter, I’m a pretty big fan of Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Jorge Polanco, and Mitch Garver with the wind blowing out to right. I don’t know if I’ll employ a full-blown stack, but Mauer and Eddie Rosario are worth using as well with the way they are hitting.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Anibal Sanchez:
Sanchez has had a really good year for the Braves, but I don’t trust him here. Not with the left handed power in this lineup. Besides that, the Dodgers are hitting .387 against Sanchez in 75 at bats with four homers and 17 runs. Manny Machado has two homers off of Sanchez. Logan Forsythe and Max Muncy have the other homers. Chase Utley is 15-34(.441) with five doubles and seven RBI. There is room for him in this stack as well. Cody Bellinger and Joc Pederson are worth chasing here as well.
Oakland Athletics vs. Bartolo Colon:
Well, the A’s didn’t really cool off last night either. Colon has been bludgeoned by right handed hitters this year. The A’s are hitting .338 off of him in 65 at bats with two homers and five RBI. However, when you consider the hitter’s park, the hitter’s weather, and how hot the A’s have been, this is the time to attack Colon. Matt Chapman and Khris Davis are definitely in play here. I’m also attacking with righties here. Marcus Semien, Stephen Piscotty, and even Mark Canha are in play as well. Khris Davis should be in every lineup tonight.
Top Tier:
Okay, so I’m not all in against Suarez, but I think that Adam Duvall and Eugenio Suarez are worth a look against a lefty in his major league debut. Tucker Barnhart is a solid play batting second at a relatively weak position as well.
Gregory Polanco has the homer off of Steven Matz for the Pirates so far. I can’t say that using the hot Josh Harrison or Starling Marte are a bad idea here either.
Tyler Mahle‘s run of impressive starts is over. He has struggled in his last two, and a trip to Philly isn’t going to help him any. I like Rhys Hoskins and Carlos Santana for sure. Nick Williams and Odubel Herrera are worth a look as well.
I’m not attacking Rich Hill with lefties here, but Ozzie Albies and Johan Camargo are definitely in play here. After that, I’m not all that sure that Hill is worth chasing. However, if Tyler Flowers is in the lineup, he’s my catcher.
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Middle Tier:
Alex Cobb has not pitched well against anyone this year, including his former team. C.J. Cron homered off of him earlier this year, a three run job. Robertson also drove in a run. I like the idea of adding Kiermaier for a nice Rays mini stack tonight.
Eric Thames is probably my favorite Brewer here since he has the most power. The rest of this team doesn’t really do anything for me, but the hot Christian Yelich is worth a look.
Wade Miley has been good enough to not stack against, especially in a pitcher’s park. Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, and Hunter Pence have taken Miley deep so far. However, I’m not sold on the chances of any of them doing it again. The Giants offense just doesn’t scare me. I’m not where I would go out and use Miley, but it’s tempting.
Justin Bour and Derek Dietrich have both homered off of Stephen Strasburg. Realmuto has hit him well, but there is no way that I’m paying $4,800 for him. Bour would seem to be the way to go here if you want to chase Strasburg.
Bargain Shoppers:
I’m not a big proponent of any Royals tonight, but Alcides Escobar is dirt cheap, and he has two RBI off of Gray. You could do worse for $2,800.
Here’s the thing. I want to like Trevor Cahill here. Actually, I do like Cahill. I just hate the price. Yes, the Rangers aren’t all that great, but this is a hitter’s park with hitter’s weather. Adrian Beltre is 11-32(.344) with two homers and five RBI against Cahill, and he is just $3,200. Robinson Chirinos has homered off of Cahill as well if you are looking for ways to get at him.
Matt Wieters is super cheap, and is 6-8 with two homers and four RBI against Dan Straily. Zimmerman and Rendon has taken Straily deep as well. Juan Soto is the guy I’m most after after Wieters though. Bryce Harper is just 2-13 against Straily.
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