MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Thursday, July 26th Evening Slates

MLB DFS Bargain Bin /

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Thursday, July 26th Evening Slates

Welcome to a Thursday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about format and content:

The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
In this DFS MLB Bargain Bin Quick Hits version, I’ll suggest players that are typically value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). Naturally, check final pricing before making your lineup decisions, as I am not listing salaries in this edition.
This is not a position-by-position breakdown, but rather, I’m just identifying games where I think there’s value players in potentially favorable fantasy spots.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Thursday evening’s slates!

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Thurs. July 26th Evening Slates Bargain Pitcher

Dereck Rodriguez, SF vs. MIL

There aren’t very many attractive value options at pitcher on Thursday’s slate, as I’m very wary of the likes of Sonny Gray, Bartolo Colon or Dan Straily. However, Rodriguez is one arm that fits the bill, as he’s proven to be unfazed by big-league bats thus far in his short career.

The right-hander has notched quality starts in four of his last five trips to the mound, and he’s been especially effective at home. Rodriguez sports a 2.28 ERA, .206 BAA and .269 wOBA allowed over 27.2 innings at AT&T Park, while also generating a solid 84.6 percent strand rate. His HR/FB rate is also a minuscule 7.7 percent at home, not entirely surprising considering the favorable configurations he pitches in — AT&T Park checks in with the sixth-lowest home-run factor rating (.0838).

Meanwhile, the Brewers have had consistent trouble making contact against right-handed pitching on the road of late, as they sport the fifth-highest strikeout rate (26.3 percent) versus that handedness outside of their home park over the last month of play (453 plate appearances). They also own a -3.8 wRAA, 89 wRC+ and anemic .130 ISO against righties during that stretch, furthering Rodriguez’s case.

The cupboard for cost-saving pitchers isn’t necessarily barren beyond Rodriguez, however, as there’s another couple of candidates that I consider viable, and that should also be priced affordably Thursday:

ALSO CONSIDER:

Brian Johnson– BOS vs. MIN

Nick Kingham, PIT vs. NYM

DraftKings /

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Thurs. July 26th Evening Slates Quick Hits

The Phillies-Reds tilt could feature a busy scoreboard, as Philadelphia will roll out rookie Ranger Suarez for his big-league debut, while the Reds will call on the vulnerable Tyler Mahle. Suarez has put together a solid body of work in the minors and is 5-3 with a 2.38 ERA between stints in Double-A and Triple-A thus far this season, but any first-time starter is potentially ripe for the picking. The young southpaw has also given up some contact to righty bats at the Triple-A level in particular, as evidenced by a .326 BAA. Therefore, I wouldn’t hesitate to deploy some cheap right-handed bats for the Reds that hit lefties well, including Adam Duvall, the switch-hitting Tucker Barnhart and Jose Peraza.

On the Phillies side, it’s worth noting that Mahle has been a disaster against left-handed hitters throughout the season, allowing a .409 wOBA, .279 ISO and 48.3 percent hard contact rate. Typically affordable lefty or switch-hitting bats on the Phillies like Nick Williams, Carlos Santana, and where affordable, Cesar Hernandez, are certainly in play, as well as any such as Odubel Herrera that may be priced a bit above value range.

The Rays will go with one of their bullpen days Thursday, which always makes it a bit tricky considering it’s difficult to know exactly who’ll be making an appearance behind the opener. As customary, the Rays bullpen is among the most utilized over the last week (AL-high 31.1 innings), but they’ve also been very effective, yielding just a .259 wOBA during that span. Therefore, I’d look to only deploy some of the Orioles’ better contact-hitting economical bats, like Danny Valencia and Adam Jones.

However, on the other side, the Rays look very enticing against their old teammate Alex Cobb. Cobb’s troubles this season included .376 and .382 wOBAs allowed to left-handed and right-handed hitters, respectively. Therefore, I consider all cheap Rays bats to be in play, which essentially encompasses anyone they might roll out, including Daniel Robertson, Joey Wendle, C.J. Cron, Jake Bauers, Mallex Smith and Ji-Man Choi. The bullpen matchups look equally enticing, as Orioles relievers have allowed a .340 wOBA to right-handed hitters and a .334 wOBA to left-handed hitters at home over the last month.

Yankee Stadium could be another location for some offense Thursday, as Jakob Junis and Sonny Gray take the mound for the Royals and Yankees, respectively. Much like Cobb, Junis has struggled against both sides of the plate, and he’s given up a whopping 24 homers overall this season. Needless to say, any affordable Yankees the likes of Brett Gardner, Greg Bird, Neil Walker and Austin Romine are in play. Additionally, Didi Gregorious and Aaron Hicks are also worthy of consideration where affordable, with Hicks particularly worth monitoring due to his day-to-day status.

Meanwhile, Gray has not taken to his new home park very well, allowing a 7.62 ERA and .400 wOBA — including nine homers — over 41.1 innings at Yankee Stadium this season. Hitters from both sides of the plate have bashed him there, and with the Royals lineup usually priced cheap across the board, most anyone is fair game to utilize in tournaments. However, I’d particularly focus on Mike Moustakas (.428 CXwOBA versus righties), Lucas Duda (.476 CXwOBA versus righties), Alex Gordon (.444 CXwOBA versus righties), and if he’s in the lineup, Brian Goodwin (.433 CXwOBA against righties). Salvador Perez also hits right-handed pitching very well.

The Mets’ Steven Matz has had some trouble against right-handed bats (.330 wOBA, 13 homers allowed), although he’s been better overall on the road. Nevertheless, I’d give consideration to Elias Diaz, Josh Harrison, David Freese, Jordan Luplow and Jody Mercer if they’re in the lineup. The Mets bullpen has also been vulnerable to righty bats on the road in the last month, allowing a .343 wOBA and 5.40 ERA.

FanDuel MLB /

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Thurs. July 26th Evening Slates Quick Hits (cont.)

The Twins’

Kyle Gibson

has been largely effective, so not targeting him too much tonight. However, worth noting that the Red Sox’s

Sandy Leon

does own a .500 average against the right-hander over a modest sample of seven plate appearances.

More from FanSided

Stephen Strasburg has been scratched from Thursday’s start against the Marlins, with no replacement announced as of this writing. Therefore, keep an eye on that situation, as there may be a very good opportunity to deploy some cheap Marlins bats with success.

On the other side, Miami’s Dan Straily has allowed a .337 wOBA, including eight homers, 29.4 percent line-drive rate and 45.2 percent hard contact rate at home thus far over 37.0 innings, and that’s with Marlins Park’s generally favorable pitching conditions. I’d consider all affordable Nats bats since he’s given up production to both sides of the plate, with Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Eaton, Juan Soto and Daniel Murphy particularly standing out.

The Dodgers’ Rich Hill has allowed a .332 wOBA, 26.0 percent line-drive rate and 48.1 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters on the road, which brings the likes of Kurt Suzuki, Darby Swanson, the switch-hitting Johan Comargo and Ronald Acuna, Jr. (where affordable) into play.

On the Dodgers’ side, Braves starter Anibal Sanchez has been surprisingly effective this season, but worth noting that Logan Forsythe (.455 average over 11 plate appearances against him) and Chase Utley (.441 average over 36 plate appearances against him) have both hit him quite well.

While the Athletics’ Trevor Cahill has been very good overall, right-handed hitters on the road have been a major weakness. The veteran has allowed a .393 wOBA, 23.1 percent HR/FB rate and 47.6 percent hard contact rate to that handedness outside of the Coliseum, making him a target for the likes of Robinson Chirinos, Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre (who also owns a .344 average over 33 plate appearances against him). Also worth noting that the A’s bullpen has gotten plenty of work lately (24.0 innings over the last week), so there could be opportunities to exploit there also.

There’s definitely opportunity to exploit on the other side of the matchup, considering Bartolo Colon takes the hill at Globe Life for the Rangers on Thursday. Colon has allowed a .352 wOBA to left-handed hitters and .359 wOBA to right-handed hitters at home this season, so all reasonably priced A’s have to be considered. In terms of BvP metrics, worth noting that Jonathan Lucroy (.462 average over 13 plate appearances against him), Jed Lowrie (.417 average over 14 plate appearances against him) and Matt Chapman (.500 average over seven plate appearances against him) especially stand out. The Rangers bullpen has also seen a ton of work over the last week (25.0 innings), including in this series, allowing a mammoth 13.32 ERA and .495 wOBA (including nine homers) during that span.

The Brewers’ Wade Miley has delivered solid outings this season over his three non-injury-shortened starts, so I’m not overly keen on the Giants value bats tonight. However, worth noting that Brandon Belt (.500 average over 12 plate appearances against him) and Buster Posey (.360 average over 27 plate appearances against him) have both enjoyed plenty of success versus the lefty. Also keep in mind that the Brewers bullpen has allowed a 9.55 ERA and .388 wOBA — including seven homers — to right-handed hitters on the road in the last month, and a .352 wOBA to a smaller 83-batter sample of left-handed hitters during that same span.

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