There’s no question J.A. Happ will give the Yankees rotation a nice boost. The real question is just how much this move will help New York.
Figuring out how impactful J.A. Happ will be for the New York Yankees isn’t an overly complicated proposition. To calculate his value, all you need to do is project how much better he will be than the Yankees’ previous fifth starter(s) down the stretch.
Essentially, it requires comparing Happ’s likely performance to that of Domingo German or Luis Cessa.
For the purposes of this exercise, we’re going to use German as the point of comparison. Cessa has thrown two good starts in a row, but there is a reason he’s already back in Triple-A. His stuff isn’t good enough to keep up that level of production.
It’s very unlikely Cessa would provide any sort of consistent production down the stretch.
Before German was banished to the minors, he’d made 13 starts for the Yankees along with six appearances out of the bullpen. He had some encouraging moments, but overall his performance was well below the league average.
German’s ERA of 5.68 in 82 1/3 innings pitched was a serious problem for Aaron Boone’s squad.
It’s important to note that German’s performance was trending downward sharply. His ERA during the month of July was 7.00 in his four starts.
Using German’s entire performance during the first half is likely too optimistic compared to how he would’ve pitched if he stayed in the majors all year long. Even so, we’ll use German’s first half performance as the data point for this exercise.
The easiest way to quantify German’s value in the first half is by looking at his WAR of -0.4. Frankly, that’s a little better than you might expect given the right-hander’s ERA.
Happ, on the other hand, posted a WAR of 0.9 in his 20 starts for Toronto. That’s pretty consistent with his ERA of 4.18. His record of 10-6 is probably a little bit strong for the way he’s thrown the ball this season, but it’s not that far out of line.
His performance during the month of July is also a concern. Happ has posted an ERA of 7.41 in his last three starts. The Yankees hope that’s partly a result of all the drama surrounding his trade status. Being linked with half of the teams in MLB had to distract Happ.
The simple way to calculate things is to contrast the WAR. If you do that, you would expect Happ to improve New York’s win total by 1.3 as the season progresses. That’s probably the least Yankee fans should expect.
Happ’s experience pitching in tense situations in the AL East should allow his performance to improve down the stretch. At least, that’s what Brian Cashman and company are betting on.
There’s also a hidden value that Happ can provide his new team. His ability to eat innings at a quality level will lessen the pressure German was previously placing on the Yankees bullpen.
That’s almost impossible to quantify in terms of projected wins/losses, but it doesn’t make it less important.
Add it all up, and it’s safe to expect Happ to be worth at least two wins for the Yankees down the stretch. That might not seem like a lot, but it could mean a ton to his new team down the stretch.