DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Friday, July 27

Welcome in to the Friday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! Since it’s Friday, you know we have a monster slate on our hands so let’s get busy!

I was honest that I basically bailed on last night’s slate other than a couple cheap tournaments and pretty much made the right call. If you didn’t have Rich Hill and some of the Phillies bats, odds are you didn’t have a very good night. We couldn’t find a single pitcher we liked last night but the good news is we ave about seven that are viable options tonight and we have a Coors game and  Jason Vargas is back on the mound. Let’s work!

DFS MLB – Royals at Yankees

Royals Probable Starter – Brad Keller, RHP 

3.20 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 15.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .228 average, .294 wOBA, 15.8 K rate, 19.0 fly ball rate and 29.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .248 average, .273 wOBA, 14.5 K rate, 25.7 fly ball rate and 33.8 hard hit rate

Keller has actually been pretty solid to this point in his career but that probably won’t be the case tonight. Even though Aaron Judge will likely be out of the lineup after getting hit by a pitch yesterday, this Yankee lineup is still potent. Keller doesn’t have a very high strikeout rate and you had better be able to miss some bats against New York. Keller has only given up one home run to each handedness so I’m sticking with the Yankees best options. Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar have an xwOBA over .422 against the combo of four seam and sinker, which Keller throws a lot. Torres has the higher ISO and both hitters are under $4,000. This spot might not be quite as good as the home run prone Jakob Junis that the Bronx Bombers got yesterday, but it’s far from a bad one.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres

Secondary Options – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Giancarlo Stanton

Yankees Probable Starter – CC Sabathia, LHP 

3.51 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 17.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .191 average, .311 wOBA, 22.0 K rate, 30.0 fly ball rate and 18.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .262 average, .318 wOBA, 17.0 K rate, 35.7 fly ball rate and 32.0 hard hit rate

I may find myself actually considering pitching CC Sabathia tonight, even though I think the ceiling is pretty limited. The Royals offense isn’t good and they don’t look too hot against lefties either, especially a crafty veteran like Sabathia. The only active Kansas City hitter with a wOBA over .350 and an ISO over .160 against lefty pitching is Whit Merrifield. He’s usually one of my go to guys against a lefty and the pitch data looks good. Sabathia throws a sinker or slider most often to righties and Merrifield has a .349 xwOBA against that mix. That’s fine but not something I’m looking for in a hitter that I have to sink $3,900 into. I’ll bookmark Sabathia as a possibility but I can’t see a reason to have Royals hitters tonight on a slate loaded with aces, good offenses and a Coors Field game.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Whit Merrifield in GPP

Home Run Pick – Gleyber Torres

DFS MLB – Mets at Pirates

Mets Probable Starter – Jason Vargas, LHP 

8.60 ERA, 1.83 WHIP and 17.8 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .326 average, .434 wOBA, 13.7 K rate, 41.7 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .342 average, .427 wOBA, 19.4 K rate, 40.7 fly ball rate and 39.0 hard hit rate

Not to cop out on this game, but the state of the Pirates lineup will really dictate where we go for this one. Corey Dickerson and Starling Marte were absent last night and Francisco Cervelli came back. There’s a lot of moving parts at the moment so here’s the gameplan. I want whoever catches. If it’s Cervelli, he’s minimum price against a terrible pitcher. If Elias Diaz gets the start as Cervelli works his was back from another concussion, then we Walk With Elias. Both of those hitters have an xwOBA over .500 against lefty four seams and sinkers. I think a very solid contrarian option is going to be Gregory Polanco. The pitch data is average, but he does have a .213 ISO against lefty pitching and a .333 wOBA. As the splits show, Vargas isn’t fooling anyone. Josh Bell, Jordy Mercer and Sean Rodriguez all have a wOBA of at least .348 against lefties this season and a full Pirates stack makes a whole lot of sense.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Whichever catcher starts, Gregory Polanco(GPP), Starling Marte(if active)

Secondary Options – Josh Bell, Jordy Mercer, Sean Rodriguez, David Freese, Josh Harrison, Jordan Luplow

Pirates Probable Starter – Ivan Nova, RHP 

4.28 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 17.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .290 average, .358 wOBA, 11.9 K rate, 40.0 fly ball rate and 33.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .249 average, .313 wOBA, 23.1 K rate, 27.5 fly ball rate and 35.4 hard hit rate

The Mets hit double digits last night and while that’s unlikely, there are matchups to exploit here. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but there’s a Pirates righty pitcher that throws a lot of sinkers and for seamers and then struggles with lefties. If that sounds familiar, it’s because that is basically the book on the Pirates rotation. Asdrubal Cabrera had a monster game last night and is just $3,000, while compiling a .363 wOBA and a .235 ISO against righties so far. Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto can both be had for $3,100 and I’d side with Nimmo if only playing one. That’s a tough call because Nimmo has been better all year but Conforto is a little hotter at the moment. While Nova is tougher on righty hitters, Jose Bautista has a .461 xwOBA against the righty four seam and sinker combo. The other hitters discussed are in the .345-.374 range. The Mets are in a god spot on paper if you think they can be trusted again.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Asdrubal Cabrera, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo

Secondary Options -Jose Bautista, Wilmer Flores

Home Run Pick – Jose Bautista

DFS MLB – Rays at Orioles

Rays Probable Starter – Chris Archer, RHP 

4.30 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 25.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .285 average, .350 wOBA, 21.4 K rate, 30.8 fly ball rate and 40.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .255 average, .307 wOBA, 29.0 K rate, 32.1 fly ball rate and 42.5 hard hit rate

Unless Chris Archer gets traded during the day today, he’s a prime candidate to be in my lineup tonight. Even through all of his struggles this year, he’s been decent against righties and is striking them out at an elite clip. Is Archer going to pitch a clean game? Almost certainly not but the double digit strikeout upside for $3,800 less than the most expensive player on the slate is pretty appealing. Baltimore strikes out at the seventh highest clip in baseball against righty pitching and via FanGraphs, they’re 29th against the fastball and 20th against the slider. That’s about all that Archer throws to righties and I won’t have any Orioles tonight. The only one I could get behind as a deep field GPP play would be Chris Davis but that’s dicey at best. No active hitter for the Orioles has a wOBA over .340 against righty pitching at this point.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo

Orioles Probable Starter – Andrew Cashner, RHP 

4.40 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 17.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH -.264 average, .365 wOBA, 21.4 K rate, 40.6 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH -.290 average, .356 wOBA, 14.4 K rate, 30.2 fly ball rate and 29.9 hard hit rate

Cashner probably isn’t quite as bad as everyone thinks he is and that gives me some pause in playing the Rays tonight. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not about to die on the “Andrew Cashner is a good pitcher” hill but in 20 starts, he’s only given up more than four earned three times. That’s not exactly gas can level. He’s also given up only six homers to the right side of the plate, so C.J. Cron is probably just a GPP option with his .229 ISO against righty pitching. The option that catches my eye the most is Jake Bauers. He checks out on the pitch data, carrying a .466 xwOBA against righty four seamers and sinkers. Cashner throws those two pitches 61 percent of the time to lefties and he could have a issue with the .361 wOBA and .256 ISO Bauers possesses. That might be the extent of my Rays exposure on this massive slate.

Rays Hitters to target 

Elite Options – Jake Bauers

Secondary Options – C.J. Cron

Home Run Pick – Jonathan Schoop

DFS MLB – Indians at Tigers

Indians Probable Starter – Carlos Carrasco, RHP 

4.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 27.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .251 average, .315 wOBA, 28.6 K rate, 34.6 fly ball rate and 36.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .240 average, .287 wOBA, 25.5 K rate, 35.9 fly ball rate and 38.7 hard hit rate

I think Carrasco is in line for a pretty good game but I’m not sure if I can pay $10,000 for him on this slate. He’s been up and down but he’s also been better on the road to a pretty significant degree. The Tigers are also in the bottom 10 in baseball in average, ISO, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ against righty pitching. While there are plenty of stats that lineup, it’s hard to pay the extra money over Archer because neither player is safe. Carrasco is slightly worse against lefties and Leonys Martin would be the best option via wOBA(.343), ISO(.164) and pitch data(.385 xwOBA against the main pitches for Carrasco). Still, there are so many better spots to attack with hitters than Carrasco tonight. I will likely not have much of this game, if any at all.

Tigers Hitters to target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Leonys Martin

Tigers Probable Starter – Mike Fiers, RHP 

3.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 17.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .256 average, .332 wOBA, 18.1 K rate, 44.6 fly ball rate and 37.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .261 average, .314 wOBA, 16.9 K rate, 43.9 fly ball rate and 35.5 hard hit rate

This is going to be the fourth time Fiers has faced Cleveland and he’s had two really good starts and an average one. He could be pitching to get out of Detroit and I’m not as interested in Cleveland as I normally would be. There’s downside to this matchup for sure. The best options are the usual suspects in Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley and Jose Ramirez. Lindor is typically better against lefties and Brantley doesn’t have the highest power upside. Ramirez is in the middle of an MVP caliber season so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he had a big game. At least for cash games, I think I’m headed elsewhere. The Cleveland offense is a perfectly fine GPP option but they’re not the slam dunk they can be on some nights.

Indians Hitters to target 

Elite Options – Cleveland Stack

Secondary Options -Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley, Francisco Lindor

Home Run Pick – Jose Ramirez

DFS MLB – Twins at Red Sox

Twins Probable Starter – Lance Lynn, RHP 

5.23 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and 21.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .293 average, .382 wOBA, 14.4 K rate, 20.2 fly ball rate and 41.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .242 average, .319 wOBA, 27.1 K rate, 29.5 fly ball rate and 35.3 hard hit rate

The Red Sox likely let a lot of people down last night when they only scored one run against Kyle Gibson. Lynn throws the same four seam and sinker combo that Kyle Gibson does and the Red Sox should destroy those pitches. I think the splits justify looking at the lefties and not paying top dollar for Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. Having said that, those two have the best xwOBA except for Steve Pearce and they lead in ISO and wOBA. However, I can fit lefties like Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Moreland easier for their salaries. Their xwOBA is still over .450, which is an excellent mark and they both have an ISO over .220. Benintendi is the more well rounded player but Moreland is a little cheaper. I have a hard time believing that the Red Sox will disappoint two nights in a row given the matchup.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options -Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi, Brock Holt

Secondary Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

Red Sox Probable Starter – Chris Sale, LHP 

2.13 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 37.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .159 average, .191 wOBA, 39.8 K rate, 26.7 fly ball rate and 21.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .184 average, .248 wOBA, 37.0 K rate, 38.2 fly ball rate and 27.8 hard hit rate

This side is pretty easy because Sale might just be the best pitcher in baseball. I wouldn’t play a Twin hitter even in the bigger tournaments. There’s trying to find an edge and there’s just wasting salary. The bigger decision is whether we want to pay the gigantic $12,800 salary for Sale tonight. It does seem like a guaranteed 50 points as his lowest point total since June 1st is 52 points. That was also the last time he was under none strikeouts. The $12,800 would account for 25.6 percent of you salary cap. Anything under 50-55 points wouldn’t be worth the price.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – Mitch Moreland

DFS MLB – Phillies at Reds

Phillies Probable Starter – Nick Pivetta, RHP 

4.69 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 27.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .308 average, .365 wOBA, 25.0 K rate, 39.1 fly ball rate and 34.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .222 average, .289 wOBA, 30.4 K rate, 34.3 fly ball rate and 31.5 hard hit rate

I would only do this in a tournament but Pivetta could be an option tonight that very few people will play. He’s been the model of inconsistency so far this year but there’s a chance he will only face two lefties in Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett. Jesse Winker and Scott Schebler are on the disabled list and most of the rest of the lineup should bat righty. Tucker Barnhart and Billy Hamilton will bat lefty but they both have wOBA’s under .300 and ISO’s under .115. That’s not something that really concerns me. If Pivetta can get by Votto and Gennett, there is legitimate upside in this matchup with plenty of risk. Even those two hitters haven’t shown the most power upside and I don’t want to chase either one in a major way.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Reds Probable Starter – Anthony DeSclafani, RHP 

5.40 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 20.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .255 average, .404 wOBA, 16.7 K rate, 46.7 fly ball rate and 48.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .263 average, .312 wOBA, 23.3 K rate, 34.3 fly ball rate and 49.3 hard hit rate

If you liked the Phillies lefties yesterday, you must be salivating over them today. Philly went nuts and DeSclafani is getting destroyed by lefties. He has a 3.75 HR/9 to let handed hitters which honestly might be the highest figure in my memory since I’ve started this article. The top three lefties that can put the ball in the stands are Nick Williams, Odubel Herrera and Carlos Santana. Williams might be a bit risky by the law of averages since he hit two home runs yesterday. Herrera was the one man who didn’t and the 2-3-5-6 stack of Rhys Hoskins, Herrera, Santana and Williams could pay huge dividends again tonight. There’s zero chance that I would use DeSclafani, who could well end up in negative points.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Carlos Santana,

Secondary Options – Rhys Hoskins, Cesar Hernandez

Home Run Pick – Odubel Herrera

DFS MLB – Nationals at Marlins

Nationals Probable Starter – Max Scherzer, RHP 

2.43 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 34.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .199 average, .273 wOBA, 31.5 K rate, 51.2 fly ball rate and 26.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .173 average, .240 wOBA, 37.4 K rate, 45.5 fly ball rate and 36.6 hard hit rate

It’s a weird thing but Scherzer has faced the Marlins twice this season and has scored 24 points each time. Here’s the other thing – you’re not getting a discount on him, but Scherzer has been over 46 points since the start of June. Sale is justifiably more expensive and I can’t see myself owning any part of this game. You can take a stab at Justin Bour in the hope that one of the fly balls to lefty hitters leaves the yard but it’s not something that I’m doing. I’ll either re-work the roster to get up to Sale or I’ll bump down to Archer. Scherzer is only a GPP pivot if you think Sale is chalk.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Justin Bour(GPP)

Marlins Probable Starter – Pablo Lopez, RHP 

5.09 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 21.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .225 average, .282 wOBA, 25.6 K rate, 25.0 fly ball rate and 37.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .217 average, .316 wOBA, 17.7 K rate, 29.7 fly ball rate and 32.4 hard hit rate

If you just look at the ERA, it would appear that Lopez should be someone to load up Nationals hitters. However, he’s generating ground balls almost 56 percent of the time and his xFIP is 3.74, which is a huge difference. There’s a good bit of risk with any Nationals hitter tonight. The one thing that makes me think the Nationals could break out against Lopez is they look really good against the fastball/sinker combo that Lopez throws over 55 percent of the time to both sides of the plate. Five regulars have an xwOBA over .400 against the pitch and it’s hard to ignore Trea Turner at $3,300. The stolen bases haven’t been there for him but there’s also a reason his price is so low. Bryce Harper continues to taunt me at $4,100 but there’s likely better ways to spend that salary. If you wanted to get nuts, you could pitch Lopez. He’s had two solid games and two poor games so there’s just no way of telling which version shows up.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner

Secondary Options – Adam Eaton, Daniel Murphy

Home Run Pick – Trea Turner

DFS MLB – Dodgers at Braves

Dodgers Probable Starter – Clayton Kershaw, LHP 

2.64 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 25.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .275 average, .331 wOBA, 26.6 K rate, 34.0 fly ball rate and 42.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .217 average, .270 wOBA, 24.6 K rate, 27.7 fly ball rate and 30.7 hard hit rate

How crazy is it that Kershaw is on the slate and might not be in the top 3-5 options at pitcher? I think that’s where we’re at tonight and what’s a little weird is Kershaw hasn’t been very good against lefties this year. Freddie Freeman is one of the better lefty on lefty hitters in baseball, as he carries a 1.058 OPS, .272 ISO and .445 wOBA. He also checks the pitch data box. Kershaw is more or less a four seam/slider pitcher to lefties and Freeman has a .449 xwOBA against those pitches from a lefty tonight. Much like some of the other games, this is mostly a steer clear spot in cash for me. Freeman is an elite tournament play though. Kershaw hasn’t been the dominant player we’re used to, but it seems foolish to try and attack him either.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Freddie Freeman(GPP)

Secondary Options – None

Braves Probable Starter – Mike Foltynewicz, RHP 

2.85 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 28.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .185 average, .288 wOBA, 26.6 K rate, 38.3 fly ball rate and 31.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .219 average, .267 wOBA, 29.8 K rate, 33.1 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate

Foltynewicz has been excellent this year but I can’t recommend playing him in good faith here. The Dodgers are one of the better offenses in the league and Max Muncy and Joc Pederson kill the fastball from righties. That could be an issue since the righty pitcher throws it about 47 percent of the time. Yasmani Grandal will get overlooked again but he shouldn’t be in tournaments. He’d be an integral hitter in a Dodger stack with a .382 wOBA and .262 ISO against righty pitching in general. He also is excellent against the righty fastball at a .450 xwOBA. If you’re not stack the Dodgers, I’d stay away from this one. Foltynewicz deserves respect, it’s just a tough matchup that I’m not going after in cash games.

Dodgers Hitters to target 

Elite Options – Dodgers Stack

Secondary Options -None

Home Run Pick – Freddie Freeman

DFS MLB – Rangers at Astros

Rangers Probable Starter – Yovani Gallardo, RHP 

7.18 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 13.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .256 average, .355 wOBA, 13.3 K rate, 31.8 fly ball rate and 36.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .328 average, .383 wOBA, 12.5 K rate, 27.6 fly ball rate and 37.9 hard hit rate

Coming to Houston isn’t the spot you want to be poor against righties because they are righty heavy. If I’m looking for righty power, I’m heading to Alex Bregman and Evan Gattis. Their ISO is at least .225 against righties and Bregman especially has good pitch data with a .440 xwOBA against the four seam/sinker combo that Gallardo throws 54 percent. It’s hard to not like just about any Astros hitter in this spot and I wonder if they go a little overlooked when we compare it to other offenses on the slate. Gallardo has been a terrible pitcher so far and the pitch data looks scary for him as well. Take your shots however you’d like. If you want to be different, use Tony Kemp as part of a wraparound stack.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Alex Bregman, Evan Gattis, Josh Reddick

Secondary Options – Full Stack

Astros Probable Starter – Dallas Keuchel, LHP 

3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 17.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .290 average, .326 wOBA, 23.0 K rate, 12.3 fly ball rate and 24.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .238 average, .286 wOBA, 16.5 K rate, 26.1 fly ball rate and 28.3 hard hit rate

If there was a smaller slate, I’d think about taking a shot at Keuchel. He gets ground balls and limits power in a big way and he’s been pitching better lately. Jurickson Profar leads the way in wOBA for the team but it’s not anything crazy. There’s too many outcomes here for me to really like either side. Kecuchel has been too inconsistent to trust him, especially with the other options on the table. Even with the splits, I’m not dealing with any Rangers lefties today.  The lefty that you could go with is Shin-soo Choo. He’s a professional hitter that can get the job done no matter the situation.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Shin-soo Choo, Adrian Beltre, Jurickson Profar

Home Run Pick – Jose Altuve

DFS MLB – Blue Jays at White Sox

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Marcus Stroman, RHP 

5.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 18.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .295 average, .345 wOBA, 16.4 K rate, 16.5 fly ball rate and 41.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .243 average, .303 wOBA, 20.9 K rate, 26.4 fly ball rate and 37.0 hard hit rate

Marcus Stroman isn’t exactly my best friend as I can never get him right but he can’t be in a much better spot tonight. The White Sox are a top five team in terms of strikeout percentage and in the bottom half of the league in the major offensive categories. You need home runs on this kind of slate and Stroman isn’t giving up a large amount of fly balls. If you’re a major believer in the pitch data, Matt Davidson stands out above the pack. Stroman pounds his sinker and Davidson has a whopping .614 xwOBA against righty sinkers this year. It’s the definition if a GPP play but if that facet hits, you’re going to rocket up the leaderboards. Yoan Moncada is always interesting against a righty but is a little too expensive for me with a potential lack of upside.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Matt Davidson, Yoan Moncada

White Sox Probable Starter – Reynaldo Lopez, RHP 

4.13 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 16.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .230 average, .313 wOBA, 14.7 K rate, 52.4 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .253 average, .328 wOBA, 18.2 K rate, 42.3 fly ball rate and 32.4 hard hit rate

Lopez has been average all through the year and is getting by with his fastball, throwing it over 55 percent of the time to either side of the plate. He’s also given up seven home runs to each side of the plate so I’m interest in who rates well against righty pitching from the Blue Jays. Six potential starters have a xwOBA over .420 against righty fastballs and there’s some interesting names of the bunch. Dwight Smith Jr. and Randall Grichuk are basically tied for the highest ISO on the team and they make the pitch data list as well. Lourdes Gurriel is a nice cheap option and could be a good pivot off of Asdrubal Cabrera, since he leads the Jays with a .500 xwOBA. Kendrys Morales isn’t far behind at a . 491. It’s not that the Blue Jays are bad plays at all, but they won’t be chalky at all. A stack could be great in GPP and it’s up to you if you want to fight the chalk in cash games.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Randall Grichuk, Dwight Smith Jr, Lourdes Gurriel

Secondary Options – Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Home Run Pick – Lourdes Gurriel

DFS MLB – Cubs at Cardinals

Cubs Probable Starter – Mike Montgomery, LHP 

3.73 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 14.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .301 wOBA, 18.0 K rate, 23.1 fly ball rate and 28.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .243 average, .290 wOBA, 13.3 K rate, 31.3 fly ball rate and 30.1 hard hit rate

Montgomery has virtually no attainable upside in this matchup and might be someone we can go after. He’s been slightly worse against lefty hitters and even though Matt Carpenter has cooled down, his .369 ISO against lefties is in serious consideration. The Cards themselves are a mediocre matchup against lefties but I do like Tommy Pham. He’s really seen this season get away from him, which is why his wOBA is only .333. I’m still perfectly willing to take a shot at him at just $3,000. You can make the case to play Jose Martinez and throw his .304 wOBA into your lineup but the pitch data doesn’t correlate and he’s been getting pulled for defense. If some of the lefty killers like Jedd Gyorko and Harrison Bader are in, we’ll be a lot closer to understanding how to attack the pitcher.

Cardinals Hitters to target 

ELite Options – Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham

Secondary Options – TBD

Cardinals Probable Starter – Luke Weaver, RHP 

4.79 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 21.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .284 average, .358 wOBA, 18.8 K rate, 36.1 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .222 average, .277 wOBA, 23.7 K rate, 36.6 fly ball rate and 33.1 hard hit rate

On another night, the Cubs will be utter chalk. Weaver hasn’t shown himself to be a good pitcher so far but the Cubs lineup is a little banged up right now. Kris Bryant is back on the disabled list with a shoulder injury and Javier Baez has been dealing with a leg injury. If Baez is in, he’s not terrible with a .255 ISO against righty pitching but I’m looking towards Kyle Schwarber or Ian Happ in this matchup. Weaver has been surprisingly tough against righty hitters but the lefties have bit him. Weaver throws mostly a four seam and changeup to lefties and Schwarber has a .400 xwOBA against this two pitches. He also has a .288 ISO so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he left the yard tonight. I’m not on board Weaver given the plethora of pitching options.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Kyle Schwarber

Secondary Options – Ian Happ, Javier Baez, Dexter Fowler

Home Run Pick – Kyle Schwarber

DFS MLB – A’s at Rockies

A’s Probable Starter – Sean Manaea, LHP 

3.38 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 16.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .198 average, .256 wOBA, 17.1 K rate, 30.3 fly ball rate and 24.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .213 average, .277 wOBA, 16.8 K rate, 36.2 fly ball rate and 41.6 hard hit rate

It’s going to be fascinating to see roster construction tonight and my goal is likely trying to include Chris Sale at pitcher and Nolan Arenado as my third baseman. While Manaea has had a good year, he’s a lefty in Coors and that normally doesn’t end well. Arenado has a 1.334 OPS, .431 ISO and .542 wOBA against lefty pitching this year and is almost automatic in these situations. Putting him and Sale in the same lineup leaves us with about $2,500 per player otherwise, so we’ll see how feasible everything is. If you’re eschewing the pitching to go with a full Rockies stack, the next two hitters have to be Trevor Story and Ian Desmond. They crush lefties as well with ISO’s over .280 and wOBA’s over .385. Desmond does have a mediocre .312 xwOBA against the four seam/changeup combo Manaea throws to righties but Coors rules all factors.

Rockies Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Ian Desmond

Secondary Options – Charlie Blackmon

Rockies Probable Starter – Kyle Freeland, LHP 

3.28 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 19.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .212 average, .271 wOBA, 27.8 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 28.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .242 average, .307 wOBA, 16.0 K rate, 35.0 fly ball rate and 31.1 hard hit rate

Freeland is quietly having a solid year and I might have fewer A’s than a lot of players tonight. His ERA at home is better by almost a full run, under 2.80 on the season. Khris Davis is more expensive than Arenado, which takes him out of the running for me. Chad Pinder and Mark Canha smack lefties but their appeal is they typically are cheap. They got the Coors Field pricing bump and they could always get pinch hit for, so my interest is limited. I suppose my two favorite plays would be Marcus Semien or Matt Chapman. Even then, they’re expensive since they scored a ton of runs in Texas and walking into Coors. I think I would only play A’s in a game stack if you think Freeland goes off the rails. I have respect for what he’s done at home this year.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Stack Davis, Semien and Chapman

Secondary Options – Chad Pinder, Mark Canha

Home Run Pick – Nolan Arenado

DFS MLB – Mariners at Angels

Mariners Probable Starter – Wade LeBlanc, LHP 

3.44 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 19.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .289 average, .355 wOBA, 17.7 K rate, 46.2 fly ball rate and 29.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .227 average, .279 wOBA, 20.1 K rate, 41.3 fly ball rate and 30.7 hard hit rate

If you’re not playing one of the bigger name pitchers on the slate, LeBlanc might be the best way to fit in a lot of offense. He’s only $7,000 coming off a dominating turn against the White Sox. He almost surely won’t strike out 10 batters again but he should be solid. The Angels are awful against lefties this year. As a team, they’re last in average, 29th in OPS, 23rd in ISO, 29th in wOBA and 27th wRC+. That’s a rock solid matchup on paper. The only hitters I would consider here are Mike Trout and Jefry Marte as a total punt. He’s minimum price with a .242 ISO against lefties but I’d have a hard time moving off Francisco Cervelli at the same price against a far worse pitcher.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mike Trout

Secondary Options – Jefry Marte

Angels Probable Starter – Andrew Heaney, LHP 

3.66 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 23.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .220 average, .225 wOBA, 24.5 K rate, 20.0 fly ball rate and 20.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .227 average, .312 wOBA, 23.4 K rate, 41.9 fly ball rate and 40.8 hard hit rate

You can make a case for Heaney as your pitcher of choice tonight. The pitch data is a little scary though because he throws his sinker a lot. Nelson Cruz(in a very small sample size) has a .851 xwOBA against lefty sinkers and Ryon Healy sits at .528. Cruz hammers lefties overall but is better at home as opposed to on the road but still has a .414 wOBA and a .346 ISO. Healy doesn’t look quite as good but does have an ISO of .212 which suggests some power upside. If Heaney can solve Cruz, Healy and Mitch Haniger, he should be in a pretty good spot to rack up some points. I’m likely to find the extra $400 and play Chris Archer for my pitcher and a two man mini stack of Cruz and Healy is very appealing in tournaments.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nelson Cruz and Ryon Healy stack in GPP

Secondary options – Mitch Haniger

Home Run Pick – Nelson Cruz

PHOENIX, AZ – OCTOBER 09: Starting pitcher Zack Greinke #21 of the Arizona Diamondbacks throws during the third inning of the National League Divisional Series game three against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chase Field on October 9, 2017 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Padres

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Zack Greinke, RHP 

3.05 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 26.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .226 average, .275 wOBA, 24.8 K rate, 29.9 fly ball rate and 39.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .233 average, .293 wOBA, 27.3 K rate, 39.1 fly ball rate and 44.6 hard hit rate

The amount of pitching options on this slate after the past couple nights of having almost nothing to pick from is mind boggling. Greinke is a little too expensive at $11,000 for my blood but I would rather play him than Scherzer tonight. He’s been lights out in his last two starts, racking up 20 strikeouts in 15.2 innings and giving up only one earned run. Heading into San Diego means he has a good chance to continue that streak as the Padres strike out the most in baseball against righty pitching. I would consider Wil Myers as a GPP option. Not only has he hit righties well with a .376 wOBA and .237 ISO, he has a .456 xwOBA against Greinke’s pitch mix to righty hitters. Past that, there doesn’t appear to be a reason to roster Padres this evening.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Wil Myers

Padres Probable Starter – Luis Perdomo, RHP 

6.99 ERA, 1.90 WHIP and 16.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .352 average, .432 wOBA, 13.5 K rate, 28.6 fly ball rate and 41.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .286 average, .330 wOBA, 21.5 K rate, 34.6 fly ball rate and 37.7 hard hit rate

It’s going to go under owned because of the park factor and the fact that it’s a late game, but the Diamondbacks are a good stacking option tonight. Perdomo has been awful and I want to look at the lefty hitters first, given his splits. Perdomo throws his sinker an awful lot and if Jake Lamb is healthy and playing tonight, he stands out with his .530 xwOBA against righty sinkers. I would still head to David Peralta first since he has a higher ISO and wOBA than Lamb and isn’t dealing with a shoulder issue. Jon Jay will likely lead off and if he does, he’s not a bad cash game play. The upside isn’t there but he should be a solid bet for 12-15 points between a couple of base hits and maybe a run or two. If you go with an Arizona stack, I would include A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt because it’ not like Perdomo has been good against righty hitters.

Diamondbacks Hitters to target 

Elite Options – Jon Jay, David Peralta

Secondary Options – Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Jake Lamb(if active)

Home Run Pick – Wil Myers

DFS MLB – Brewers at Giants

Brewers Probable Starter – Chase Anderson, RHP 

3.81 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 19.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .206 average, .297 wOBA, 20.4 K rate, 40.9 fly ball rate and 36.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .239 average, .325 wOBA, 18.8 K rate, 43.4 fly ball rate and 36.9 hard hit rate

The last game of the night should carry almost no ownership and I’m on board with that train of thinking. I’m not betting on the Giants offense here even though I don’t think Anderson is anything special. I would have had a little interest in Brandon Belt but he’s on the disabled list so you could play Andrew McCutchen. Anderson throws his four seamer more than any other pitch and McCutchen has a .416 xwOBA against righty four seamers. He’s got enough power to leave the yard, as shown by his .153 ISO but it certainly doesn’t seem like something you need to show horn into your lineup.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Andrew McCutchen, Brandon Crawford

Giants Probable Starter – Madison Bumgarner, LHP 

3.19 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 20.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .118 average, .180 wOBA, 31.6 K rate, 28.6 fly ball rate and 18.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .237 average, .311 wOBA, 18.0 K rate, 37.3 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard hit rate

I’m not saying Bumgarner is going to get tagged in this game, but there’s enough fear that he might that he won’t be in my player pool. The Brewers actually have a top 10 strikeout rate against lefties, which means they’re one of the harder teams to strikeout. They can stack up Lorenzo Cain, Jesus Aguilar and Ryan Braun tonight and that’s a little concerning for MadBum. Jonathan Villar is eligible to come off the disabled list at this point too which would make the challenge even more difficult for the Giants ace. The trio of Cain, Aguilar and Braun all have an ISO of at least .200 and Aguilar is over .300. The ball park is going to help MadBum a little bit but he hasn’t quite looked like his dominant self often enough to take the chance here. I would be more inclined to stack those three in a GPP than anything else.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Three Man Stack for GPP

Home Run Pick – None

DFS MLB – FanDuel Sample Lineup

P – Chris Sale 

C/1B – Francisco Cervelli

2B – Sean Rodriguez

3B – Nolan Arenado 

SS – Jordy Mercer 

OF – Nick Williams, Tommy Pham, Josh Reddick  

Utility – Cesar Hernandez 

Thanks goodness for some dirt cheap Pirates! I usually wound’t be too excited to stack three average hitters from the same team, but the Jason Vargas Factor is huge here. I’m able to fit in Sale and Arenado family comfortably while taking a shot at one-offs of Pham and Reddick. We even get a little piece of the Phillies lefties after they went berserk last night and are in just as good a spot tonight.

The Core – Cheap Pirates, Arenado/Sale

Pitching Options 

High End – Chris Sale, Zack Greinke, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco

Mid-Range – Chris Archer, Nick Pivetta, Marcus Stroman

Punts – Wade LeBlanc, Kyle Freeland

Stacks to Consider – Pittsburgh Pirates, Colorado Rockies, Philadelphia Phillies, Houston Astros, Boston Red Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.