DraftKings MLB Picks July 27: Don't waste money on Max

BALTIMORE, MD – JULY 23: The Baltimore Orioles leave the field in the first inning as the tarp is rolled out against the Boston Red Sox during a rain delay at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 23, 2018 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

DraftKings MLB Picks July 27: Don’t waste money on Max

We have a full 15 game slate tonight on DraftKings. As you may expect, this slate is loaded with pitching, and we also have the red-hot A’s in Coors. What in the world do we do with this? I’m going to attempt to help!

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Once again, rain is going to be a problem in the East. Boston looks okay with a mild delay threat, but the real issues are in New York and Baltimore. Baltimore has a better chance of getting this game in if they wait long enough, but New York is going to be a slog. I highly doubt that either of them finish, if they even start at all. I am going to operate this slate as if those two games will be rained out.

There is a 12 mph wind blowing out to left in Fenway again. That’s all the Red Sox power needs! The customary wind out of AT&T Park is also there.

We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!

These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!

For you first time players, if you would like $20 in free DraftKings dollars, use this link for the referral bonus with your first deposit of $5 or more! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn those DraftKings dollars into more!

MILWAUKEE, WI – JULY 21: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches in the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park on July 21, 2018 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Clayton Kershaw ($12,800): Rich Hill dominated the Braves last night. Now we get an elite lefty that will take away the advantages of SunTrust for the Braves here. The Braves are only hitting .232 against Kershaw in 56 at bats with one homer and two runs with a staggering 16 strikeouts. The thing that has me less crazy about Kershaw is the fact that he has not gone seven innings since April 20th, and has only come out for the seventh once since then. Kershaw needs to put up a lot of points early to get anywhere close to value. Is six innings of Kershaw worth this price? The past stats suggest that it may be.

Carlos Carrasco ($11,400): You could throw a cheese puff and hit an ace today. They are everywhere! What could set Carrasco apart is his opponent and history against said opponent. The Tigers are hitting just .237 with two homers and eight runs in 173 at bats with 42 strikeouts. The strikeouts aren’t anything to write home about, but Carrasco will still rack up points if no one is getting on or crossing the plate. Carrasco is about as sure of a thing as you can get here, even though I like him more for cash games.

Zack Greinke ($10,700): I know that Greinke’s numbers aren’t great this year, but his numbers against the Padres are. I’m surprised that he is this cheap. The Padres are only hitting .206 against Greinke with two homers and eight runs in 126 at bats. The 35 strikeouts is a little low, but I still think there is a lot of potential here. After all, Greinke does have 77.1 DraftKings points over his last two starts.

Middle Tier:

Madison Bumgarner ($9,300): The Brewers are only hitting .246 against MadBum with three homers in 65 at bats, but they have scraped together seven runs. The 19 strikeouts alleviate any doubts I have. A majority of the Milwaukee power is from the left side, so this looks like a place to go with Bumgarner. The 1.95 ERA in five home starts doesn’t hurt either.

Dallas Keuchel ($9,100): Keuchel is largely ignored on this pitching staff now, but he is still worth using when the matchup is right. He has actually faced the Rangers four times this year, racking up 22 strikeouts to just three walks in 24.1 innings with ten earned runs allowed. This certainly looks like the place to use him. The Rangers are only hitting .243 with only three homers and 26 runs in 321 at bats with 70 strikeouts. Those numbers are good enough to use Keuchel if fading the top tier.

Mike Montgomery ($7,000): The Cubs-Cardinals series before the break was horrible on pitchers, and very well could be again. However, the Cardinals are only hitting .236 against Montgomery in 55 at bats with just three runs. The 12 strikeouts are a little low, but there is decent potential here. Not as much as I would like though since I see Montgomery as a little overpriced here.

CC Sabathia ($6,900): The Royals are only hitting .211 against Sabathia in 109 at bats, but they do have four homers and 11 runs. However, this offense still doesn’t scare anyone, and Sabathia has a 2.59 ERA in ten home starts. He is not the dominant pitcher that he once was, but in a situation like this, CC can still pitch well above his price point. Don’t be shocked if he nets you around 20 DraftKings points.

Bargain Pitchers:

Mike Fiers ($6,300): Cleveland is hitting just .223 against Fiers with five homers and 13 runs in 148 at bats. However, the 29 strikeouts leave a lot to be desired, and Cleveland is hitting pretty well right now. Nothing jumps off the page about Fiers, but the 2.69 ERA at home and his history against Cleveland make him a solid punt option, likely at low ownership.

Kyle Freeland ($6,000): Freeland has a 3.28 ERA on the season, which is remarkable considering that he calls Coors home. Even more impressive is his 2.76 ERA in eight home starts. So why is he so cheap? Probably because of what the A’s just did to Texas. Freeland isn’t a high strikeout guy, so that leaves added risk. However, when you consider his overall numbers, it’s very hard to pass on him at this price. Even against an offense that is cooking like the A’s.

Reynaldo Lopez ($5,600): The Blue Jays offense isn’t very good right now. Lopez held the Jays to just one run and two hits in six innings earlier this year. Lopez has also been much better at home, with a 3.17 ERA in eight starts. There is definite value here with Lopez, and far less risk than with most pitchers in this tier.

Chase Anderson ($5,500): The late night hammer could be a pitcher. A $5,500 pitcher, no less. Miley got knocked around a little last night, but there is hope for Anderson. I still don’t trust the Giants offense. Anderson has a sparkling 2.66 ERA in nine road starts. This is a pitcher’s park with an offense that really doesn’t scare me. You could do worse.

Lance Lynn ($4,500): This may be a time to take advantage of faulty pricing. The Red Sox are only hitting .23 with two homers and five runs in 61 at bats against Lynn with 12 strikeouts. Those are solid numbers, not what you would expect from someone priced this low. I understand Fenway is tough, but we saw Kyle Gibson handle this offense last night. Now the bad news: Lynn has a 7.58 ERA in ten road starts this year. He hasn’t given up less than three runs in a road start since May 28th, so there is plenty of risk here, but I can guarantee low ownership.

CLEVELAND, OH – JULY 24: Gregory Polanco #25 of the Pittsburgh Pirates celebrates with a teammate after hitting a two-run home run during the second inning against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field on July 24, 2018 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /

New York Yankees vs. Brad Keller:

Like Junis before him, Keller started out very strong, but has faltered lately. Keller has allowed 12 runs in 14.1 innings over his last three starts. The Yankees could do some irreversible damage to the psyche of this poor kid! Judge and Stanton are the best bets, but I like Didi and Brett Gardner as well. Greg Bird is still reasonably priced power, and Austin Romine or Neil Walker could be good places to go cheap. Any starting Yankee is in play here, so you can get creative!

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Jason Vargas:

The Mets are putting Vargas back into the rotation, so this is their own fault. The Pirates continue to swing hot bats, so this could get ugly. David Freese has the only homer against Vargas so far, but Starling Marte, Elias Diaz, and Jordy Mercer can’t be far behind. I like all of the Pittsburgh righties here, and even a lefty like Polanco could be in play here as well. The Pirates are very affordable for facing what amounts to a pitching machine in a uniform tonight.

New York Mets vs. Ivan Nova:

The Mets beat up on Kingham last night, and they have done the same to Nova in his career. The current Mets are hitting .299 with two homers and 11 runs in only 67 at bats. Bautista is 10-32(.312) with a homer and eight RBI. Wilmer Flores has a homer, but may not start. I also like Asdrubal Cabrera, Brandon Nimmo, and Conforto here. You could even add Rosario or Devin Mesoraco here.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Anthony DeSclafani:

it has been a rough year for DeSclafani. He has given up a homer in every start since June 10th, surrendering 13 since then. This is precisely the park to attack him in. I’m a big fan of Nick Williams again, as well as Herrera and Hoskins. Maikel Franco is starting to heat up as well, and both catchers are hitting well. You really can’t go wrong with any Phillie with power potential here tonight. Taking Hernandez just because he leads off is a good idea as well.

Washington Nationals vs. Pablo Lopez:

The Nationals picked up five runs in five innings against Lopez earlier this year. Trea Turner hit the only homer, but with the way Juan Soto and Bryce Harper are going, I want them in there too. Adam Eaton, Rendon, and Matt Adams are all worth a look as well. I usually avoid stacking in pitcher’s parks, but an exception can be made here with this offense.

Houston Astros vs. Yovani Gallardo:

This should go without saying. When most of one offense costs more than the opposing pitcher, you know something’s up. In this case it’s Gallardo’s ERA. The Astros are hitting .298 in 121 at bats with only one homer, but 14 runs against Gallardo. Don’t expect Gallardo to hold them in the park tonight. Marwin Gonzalez of all players has the homer, and he is worth a look as a bit of salary relief. The meat of this stack is going to be Springer, Altuve, Josh Reddick, and Bregman though. Evan Gattis is worth a look as well.

Chicago Cubs vs. Luke Weaver:

Whatever it is, Weaver just can’t get Cubs out. They are hitting a robust .462 off of him in 65 at bats with two homers and a whopping 18 runs! Russell and Baez have the homered and ten of the RBI. Rizzo and Schwarber have both driven in a pair. Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward are 10-18 against Weaver with the other RBI.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Luis Perdomo:

The Snakes are hitting .299 with five homers and 20 runs in just 87 at bats against Perdomo. Hitter’s park or not, this is going to be ugly for Perdomo. No doubt in my mind. Goldy has three homers and seven RBI off of Perdomo in just 20 at bats. Lamb has two homers and seven RBI. I definitely want both of them and Pollock. Other than that, Ketel Marte and David Peralta look good. If you need to go cheaper, I’m certainly not against Nick Ahmed or Chris Owings either.

PHOENIX, AZ – JULY 21: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies warms up on deck during the first inning of the MLB game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on July 21, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Jose Ramirez is 6-16 with a homer against Mike Fiers. Edwin has slugged two off of him. Yan Gomes and Lindor have the other two. With the way that Fiers is pitching at home I wouldn’t go overboard here, but Edwin and Gomes are decent mid range options.

Of course Mookie Betts has homered off of Lance Lynn. Bradley has too. J.D. Martinez and Mitch Moreland are worth a look as well, and I really couldn’t fault you for stacking Red Sox again.

The Dodgers have hit Mike Foltynewicz hard. Too hard for me to pay almost five figures for him. I would rather take the money for Folty and play Muncy and Machado.

Sean Manaea has pitched well enough this year that I don’t know how much exposure I want to him in Coors. Of course, Arenado is going to be in a lot of lineups. He terrorizes lefties. After that though, the only other Rockie that I’m excited about is Ian Desmond. Desmond is 4-11 with a homer and four RBI off of Manaea.

The long ball could be a concern for Wade LeBlanc tonight. He continues to pitch well, but this soft tosser has surrendered two homers to Pujols in just eight at bats. Trout has taken him deep as well. So has Andrelton Simmons.

Khris Davis is about as hot as they come right now. Matt Chapman and Mark Canha are hitting very well right now as well. How much exposure do I want to Freeland though? The Astros and Rockies got involved in a pitcher’s duel here earlier this week. You know, two of the most potent offenses in the game. I’m not all that crazy about either side of this stack today, but I do want some exposure. The only question is how much. Davis and Arenado are locks though.

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Middle Tier:

With such a huge slate, I see no reason to pay up for Archer. Not only are the trade rumors swirling, but the Orioles have slugged 11 homers off of him in 182 at bats. Jonathan Schoop has five of them! Chris Davis has three and Adam Jones has two. If you use these three, you have enough money for some A’s at Coors and a good pitcher yet!

The Mariners have so much right handed power that I’m nervous about using Andrew Heaney here. The Mariners have hit him well, in particular Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger, and Ryon Healy. All three of them are slumping, but there is still risk with using any of them or Heaney.

If I have interest in any Giant, it’s McCutchen. And it’s still not that much of an interest.

Marcus Stroman may have a great start, but I wont be one of the ones owning him when he does. There is too much volatility here. I would rather play Jose Abreu since he is still affordable and the slump is over. Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson are worth a look as well just in case Stroman blows up again.

Freddie Freeman has the only homer for the Braves against Kershaw and is just $4,100, but I’m still not playing him or any of his teammates. Not after last night.

Salvador Perez is expensive for catcher, but he has two homers and four RBI against CC Sabathia in his career. Duda and Moose have taken CC deep as well, but there are better options for their price range.

Andrew Cashner hasn’t been bad enough to stack against, especially with a team as bland as the Rays. that said, Cashner has been markedly worse at home, so I want some exposure here. Daniel Robertson and Jake Bauers would seem to be the best places to get it.

The Reds offense has been hitting well enough for me to stay off of Pivetta. Joey Votto has hit him well, but Votto is in a bit of a funk right now. Still, Votto at $4,300 seems cheap. Eugenio Suarez is about the only other Red I would play though.

The Twins have always hit Chris Sale well dating back to his days in the A.L. Central, but they have struggled against lefties this year. Still, if I play anything from this side of the game it will be Brian Dozier. Dozier is 12-44(.273) with three homers and 11 RBI off of Sale.

Curtis Granderson is the only Blue Jay I would even consider against Reynaldo Lopez tonight, and I’m still not really that crazy about it.

Ryan Braun is 8-29(.276) with two homers and four RBI against MadBum. Yelich, Thames, and Shaw all are worse against lefties. Jesus Aguilar could be worth a look, but I still don’t like the price on him.

Bargain Shoppers:

Leonys Martin is 4-9 with a homer off of Carlos Carrasco. He is the only Tiger that I have any interest in tonight besides maybe Jose Iglesias as a punt. Iglesias is 11-31(.355) with two runs and a RBI.

Adrian Beltre has two of the three Rangers homers against Keuchel, and he is just $3,500. It doesn’t hurt that Beltre is 22-71(.310) off of him either. The only other Ranger I would even consider is Choo. Even lefty whisperer Ryan Rua hasn’t hit Keuchel all that well.

I do like Ozuna and Paul DeJong on the cheap against Mike Montgomery tonight, but I respect him enough not to throw too many Cardinals at him.

I cautioned last time before Scherzer faced the Marlins that it looked like a trap. It was. In two starts against the Marlins this year, Scherzer has allowed eight runs in just 13 innings pitched. He just can’t figure this team out! Starlin Castro, Miguel Rojas, Martin Prado, and Yadiel Rivera have all taken Scherzer deep, and are really cheap. Derek Dietrich is a little more expensive, but he has two homers and five RBI against Scherzer. I would leave Bour and Realmuto alone though. They have both homered against Scherzer, but are a combined 7-58.

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