FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups: Friday July 27

Welcome back to the FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups column for Friday, July 27th 2018. We’re a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you build a DFS MLB optimal lineup for each slate.

After playing a couple of rough FanDuel MLB slates this week, we took the day off yesterday. However, I still played one lineup in just one GPP tournament and two cash plays. And of course, on the ‘day off’…my lineup hits around 220 points. Arg!

How did we do it? Well, instead of starting with the pitcher as the key play in the lineup, I focused on offensive stacks and key offensive players first. While reviewing the options, it occurred to me the Nationals are likely low-owned, but in a good offensive position against the Marlins.

After a slow start, my Ryan Zimmerman, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Juan Soto stack had fireworks, yielding over 75 FanDuel MLB points with a couple of home runs, doubles, and RBI’s.

Also, we liked the Ray against Alex Cobb, but didn’t want to spend too much salary. So I stuck with two Rays bats I’ve been using often this season, Joey Wendle and Kevin Kiermaier. Fortunately, they each scored over 12 FanDuel MLB points in a low scoring 4-3 win in Baltimore.

Finally, if you’ve been following this column all week, a red-hot Eugenio Suarez has been one of my favorite plays. Fortunately, he hit yet another bomb in the Great American Ballpark, adding another 28.4 points.

Finally, I knew I wanted roughly $8K left for a pitcher pick, without really knowing who I wanted at pitcher yet. With the 3B spot open, I went back to the game in Cincinnati, knowing it’s been a hitter friendly park. Maikel Franco appeared to have a great match up, and he rewarded me with TWO home runs in the game.

So, who did we go with for the pitcher spot? Dereck Rodriguez has been on our radar since his early season outing against the Nats. The son of Hall of Famer Ivan Rodriguez (aka ‘Pudge’) has looked sharp on the mound and holds a decent K-rate. I also knew the Brewers have struggled on offense lately, especially after watching Roark roast them.

Not only did Rodriguez pile up six innings, but he fanned five batters and only gave up two earned runs giving us additional four points for the Quality start. So yes, we landed right around 220 points, and made 3.78x last night. Hopefully we can replicate that tonight.

Before we get there, a reminder to never take a DFS MLB optimal lineup as ‘bible’ for your personal lineup each day. Use the suggestions as guidance. Also, make sure you follow final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR or me @mattymcmatt17 look for late breaking lineup news.

Weather Note: It’s no slam down delay or postponement risk, but the storminess appears to be making a brief return to the east coast again tonight. Specifically, the Rays and Orioles could have a train of thunderstorms arriving at and through game time tonight, in Baltimore. Additionally, the Royals and Yankees have a similar problem, but with a slightly better probability they’ll play.

I’m especially worried about the Rays and Orioles game, but all four teams should be on your weather-risk radar…be prepared to flip to other options if you’re playing any of those options (we are).

With weather-related considerations addressed, let’s get to the top pitching options…

FanDuel MLB: Top Pitcher Main Slate

If you paid attention to the Weather Related news on our first page, you’ll know our top pitcher play today will need a fall-back. We’ll get to that shortly. But first, why did we land on Chris Archer ($9,000) as our top pitcher play tonight?

The list of starting pitchers tonight is daunting. Chris Sale ($12,800) is uber expensive, but he also has a jaw-dropping 45.8% K-rate over the last 30 days. That is insanely high. The strikeout rate also justifies his salary, as he could land somewhere around 60 to 70 FanDuel MLB points. With the right value stack, Sale easily helps you get money in cash games, and makes it feasible in GPP.

But, like we did yesterday, we took a reverse approach to the pitcher pick tonight, and I didn’t have enough cash left over for Sale. So we’re going to pass on him, but maybe play a lineup in cash games for a sure bet.

You’d think Sale would be chalky tonight right? Well, we also have Max Scherzer ($11,500) against the Marlins, Zack Greinke ($11,000) in San Diego against the Padres, and Carlos Carrasco ($10,000) against the Tigers. These are all very solid plays. Heck, we could probably even throw Madison Bumgarner  ($9,300) against the Brewers into that pile.

But, of those picks, we don’t believe any have the ceiling available from Sale tonight, nor the value we like from Archer. Looking at pitcher metrics of these starters over the last 30 days, Sale has an incredible 1.30 xFIP.

But guess what…Archer nearly matches that with a low 1.64 result. These are very, very low (and great) numbers from a starting pitcher. Additionally, Chris’ K-rate over the last month is 35%. Oh, and he gets the Orioles tonight, who have a 23.9% K-rate against RHP’s in July, sixth highest in baseball.

So sitting there among all of the noisy top pitchers tonight, Archer is ideal, and a top value play. But, we have a weather problem. Just below Archer’s salary is Andrew Heaney ($8,600).

Heaney had a tough four outings in July, facing the Astros, Dodgers twice, and Mariners in Seattle. But Andrew only gave up and average of two runs per game, and fanned 30 hitters in just 26.1 innings.

Who does Heaney get tonight? The Mariners again, the same team he struck out ten times earlier in the month. He’s easily our most exciting pivot option from Archer tonight.

FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks Main Slate

Before we landed on the salary left to grab a pitcher, we focused on our offensive stacks for tonight. Like last night, we grabbed several expensive, but mostly reasonable, top bats from one offensive lineup, and found mostly value in another stack. From there we sprinkled a random player into the lineup as well, which we’ll get to later.

Even without the hottest bat in the Nationals lineup last night, Anthony Rendon, the Nats were able to pile up ten runs against the Marlins last night. Since Adam Eaton and Ryan Zimmerman have returned to the lineup, I’ve noticed the Nats offense seems to have more fire-power. Also, after a few months of going cold during middle innings, they seem to be getting hotter as the game progresses.

So, for tonight’s slate, we were curious about the Nats, again, depending on the pitching match up. Pablo Lopez is starting on the mound for the Marlins tonight. His metrics are decent, a 1.13 WHIP and solid 3.75 xFIP over the last 30 days.

However, Lopez has a lower 21% K-rate and he’s giving up over five runs per game. Also, this isn’t the first time this Nats lineup has seen Lopez in July. Back on July 5th, Pablo was able to get through five innings, but also gave up five hits and two walks for five earned runs. He only had three strikeouts. And the Nats lineup is better since then. We’re stacking the Nats again tonight.

The Nationals stack was tough to find, but the Red Sox sack is obvious. Although, we’re going to mostly focus on the value part of their lineup, to make this group of players affordable. Why the Red Sox? Take a look at Lance Lynn‘s pitching metrics over the last 30 days.

The 5.20 xFIP for Lynn is third worst of all starting pitchers tonight. Not only does Lance have a sub-20% K-rate, but he’s also walking batters at an enormous 16% rate. The 1.87 WHIP is easily the worst of any starting tonight, and his ERA is above 7.00 over the last month as well. It’s simple, the Red Sox will feast on Lynn, and then continue to barrage their relief pitchers throughout the game.

FanDuel MLB: Summary and Example Lineup

We can probably afford to stack two or three of the top six in the Boston Red Sox lineup tonight against a currently terrible Lance Lynn. Fortunately, many of the top bats in the Nationals lineup are affordable, and we’ll grab three of their likely top four bats.

That leaves us with about $3,400 for one more offensive pick, and enough money to play a decent pitcher. So we’re going with Justin Upton ($3,300) facing a left-handed pitcher in Anaheim tonight. Upton’s home run potential should increase tonight.

Finally, we have $9,100 or less to spend on our pitcher picks. Despite the weather concerns, we’re initially going to take a crack at Chris Archer, who is arguably one of the best pitchers in July. As a fall back, we’ll grab Andrew Heaney against the Mariners. We just need to keep our eye on the weather.

With that summary in mind, here’s a look at a sample lineup for the MAIN FanDuel MLB slate on Friday, July 27th 2018:

FanDuel MLB Early Only Sample Lineup: 

P               Chris Archer ($9,000)

C/1B        Ryan Zimmerman ($2,700)

2B             Brock Holt ($2,400)

3B             Rafael Devers ($2,900)

SS             Trea Turner ($3,300)

OF             Justin Upton ($3,300)

OF             Juan Soto ($3,900)

OF             Andrew Benintendi ($4,000)

UTIL          Mitch Moreland ($3,400)

Remaining Salary: $100 

Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for today. You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel MLB lineups.  We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.

Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your DFS news and analysis across MLB, PGA, and NASCAR this summer!