MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Friday, July 27th Evening Slates

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Friday, July 27th Evening Slates

Welcome to a Friday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go MLB DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:

• The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
• Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
• In this DFS MLB Bargain Bin Quick Hits version, I’ll suggest players that are typically value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). Naturally, check final pricing before making your lineup decisions, as I am not listing salaries in this edition.
• This is not a position-by-position breakdown, but rather, I’m just identifying games where I think there’s value players in potentially favorable fantasy spots.
• The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Friday evening’s slates!

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Friday, July 27th Evening Slates Bargain Pitcher

Wade LeBlanc, SEA at LAA 

LeBlanc has been a revelation for the Mariners this season, even earning himself an extension along the way for his efforts. The veteran southpaw has generated an impressive 6-1 record, 3.44 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, while limiting hard contact to a solid 30.3 percent. The southpaw has also enjoyed some success against his Friday opponent, the Angels, going 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over 12.0 innings across two starts.

The Angels have had a difficult time against left-handed pitching overall, and particularly at home over the last month of play. Los Angeles checks in with an AL-low .195 wOBA, 24 wRC+, .088 ISO and .147 average against lefties during that stretch at Angel Stadium, along with a 25.2 percent strikeout rate. What’s more, LeBlanc has enjoyed career success against some of the Angels’ most potent hitters over varying sample sizes, as Mike Trout (1-for-5), Justin Upton (3-for-28), Luis Valbuena (1-for-6) and Ian Kinsler (2-for-10) haven’t been able to do much of note against him.

It’s true that LeBlanc has been a much better pitcher at home, but his road metrics have been a bit inflated by two recent unfavorable road matchups — the Rockies at Coors Field and the Red Sox at Fenway. Moreover, he comes into Friday off a stellar first start of the second half, having racked up 10 strikeouts over 7.1 innings against the White Sox last Friday. Angel Stadium also ranks in the top half of the majors in park factor (0.969), another point in LeBlanc’s favor.

In addition LeBlanc, there’s another couple of southpaws that also look very enticing Friday:

ALSO CONSIDER:

C.C. Sabathia, NYY vs. KCR

Mike Montgomery, CHC vs. STL

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Friday, July 27th Evening Slates Quick Hits

• The Tigers’ Mike Fiers has a couple of quality starts against the Indians on his resume already this season, so I don’t necessarily see him as a huge target Friday. However, he does allow a .333 wOBA and 33.8 percent hard contact to lefty hitters, so worth noting that Yonder Alonso (.333 average over 25 plate appearances) boasts an impressive track record against him and is one of the few Indians bats that usually comes affordably priced.

• Meanwhile, a pair of Tigers have consistently hit Indians starter Carlos Carrasco hard — Jose Iglesias (.355 average, including six doubles, over 35 plate appearances) and Leonys Martin (.444 average over 10 plate appearances). Both will undoubtedly be reasonably priced Friday, and in Martin’s case, it’s also very encouraging that the Cleveland bullpen has allowed an MLB-high .464 wOBA, including a whopping 15 homers, to left-handed hitters over the last month of play. The switch-hitting Niko Goodrum, who owns a .450 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching, is also intriguing here as a value play.

• Both Chris Archer and Andrew Cashner have proven susceptible to giving up a healthy number of runs this season, so the scoreboard could be running hot at Camden Yards on Friday. Archer has consistently had trouble with the hot-hitting Jonathan Schoop (.387 average over 31 plate appearances), Mark Trumbo (.333 average over 24 plate appearances) and Trey Mancini (.308 average over 15 plate appearances), so keep all three players under particular consideration. Archer’s .354 wOBA allowed overall to left-handed hitters also puts Chris Davis and Jace Peterson in play.

• On the Tampa side, all bats of either handedness are fair game against Cashner, especially the lefties. That puts Kevin Kiermaier, Joey Wendle, Ji-Man Choi, Mallex Smith and Jake Bauers under the spotlight as especially good value options. The fact the Orioles bullpen has allowed a .346 wOBA (including three homers) to lefty bats at home over the last month is additionally intriguing for the case of those players.

• The Mets’ Jason Vargas returns to action Friday, which should make the Pirates an extremely popular stack. David Freese (.421 CXwOBA against southpaws, .545 average against Vargas in 11 plate appearances) and Jordan Luplow (.419 CXwOBA versus lefties over small sample) are two especially appealing options, but all Pirates value bats are worthy of consideration.

• The Twins’ Lance Lynn is also making his way back to the mound Friday and has been especially hit hard by left-handed hitters (.388 wOBA, 40.0 percent hard contact rate allowed). While the elite Red Sox are naturally priced at a premium, Jackie Bradley, Jr., Mitch Moreland, Rafael Devers, Brock Holt and the switch-hitting Sandy Leon certainly fit the bill as lefty value bats to consider.

• The Reds’ Anthony DeSclafani is another pitcher that’s constantly been victimized by lefty bats, particularly in his hitter-friendly home park, where he’s allowed them a .401 wOBA, including five homers. The lefty/switch-hitting Phillies value bats that caused some damage yesterday — Nick Williams, Carlos Santana, Odubel Herrera — are back in play as a result, as is Cesar Hernandez. Also worth noting that Maikel Franco boasts a .500 average against DeSclafani over six plate appearances and just smacked a pair of solo blasts Thursday.

• The Phillies’ Nick Pivetta has had his own share of troubles versus left-handed bats on the road, as evidenced by a .421 wOBA allowed over an 86-batter sample. In terms of Reds value bats, the switch-hitting Billy Hamilton and Tucker Barnhart both come into play.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Friday, July 27th Evening Slates Quick Hits (cont.)

• The Marlins’ Pablo Lopez has had some trouble against right-handed hitters at Marlins Park over a small sample (.379 wOBA allowed, including two homers), so Matt Reynolds makes for an especially interesting option in terms of value bats on the Nationals.

• It’s anyone’s guess which Marcus Stroman shows up for the Blue Jays, but Jose Abreu (.313 average over 16 plate appearances) and Avisail Garcia (.500 average over six plate appearances) have had their share of success versus the right-hander. All other affordable value White Sox bats from either side of the plate are in play as well, with Daniel Palka (.472 CXwOBA against righties) and Yoan Moncada (.497 CXwOBA) especially standing out.

• The White Sox’s Reynaldo Lopez has been inconsistent as well, so give Blue Jays value bats of both sides of the plate a run in tournaments. Worth noting that Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales and Randal Grichuk all especially have stellar metrics versus right-handed pitching.

• The Rangers’ Yovani Gallardo is a veteran pitcher that can surprise from time to time, although he has a tough task ahead of him in the form of the Astros on Friday. Josh Reddick and Evan Gattis are two typically reasonably priced Houston bats that especially have had success against him.

• In terms of impressive metrics versus southpaws, the Rangers’ Robinson Chirinos, Adrian Beltre and the same-handed Joey Gallo all stand out. However, the Astros’ Dallas Keuchel certainly has the ability to turn in a strong outing any time he’s on the mound, so I wouldn’t go overboard on exposure to the value Texas bats at Minute Maid Park.

• Coors Field is in play Friday night, although this may not be the best game of the three-game series to target. That’s because Colorado starter Kyle Freeland has been especially good there (2.76 ERA, .223 BAA and 5-2 record over eight starts) and Athletics starter Sean Manaea has been pitching especially well of late. Naturally, you’ll want to have some exposure to the value lefty mashers on either side in tournaments (Chad Pinder, Stephen Piscotty, Jed Lowrie on Oakland and Ian Desmond and Chris Iannetta on Colorado), and it’s also worth noting that if the A’s can get Freeland out of there relatively early, the Rockies bullpen has often been miserable at home.

• The Diamondbacks often enjoy their encounters with the Padres’ Luis Perdomo, as multiple players have successful track records against him. In terms of value bats, David Peralta (.600 average over 14 plate appearances) and Jake Lamb (.316 average over 22 plate appearances) especially stand out, but Perdomo’s .437 wOBA allowed to lefty bats overall puts Daniel Descalso, the switch-hitting Ketel Marte and any other left-handed bargain bat that might get into the lineup in play as well.

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