MLB DFS Picks – Standouts: July 27th

MLB DFS Picks – Standouts: July 27th

Tonight’s MLB DFS Picks slate features 15 games with, New York (6.1), Colorado (6), Boston (5.7), Houston (5.7), and Oakland (5.6), holding the best projected team totals. With high-priced pitchers like, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, and Clayton Kershaw available, finding value will be critical for success tonight. We’ll be aiming to highlight MLB DFS picks from the perspective of batted ball data, batter splits, line movement, and stolen base upside.

MLB DFS Picks: Batted Ball Stats

Tyler Saladino – DK $2800, FD $2400

If he’s batting near the top half of the order, Tyler Saladino will make for an interesting, contrarian play, based on his salary drop and recent batted ball stats. Saladino was priced as high as $3400 last week, and is now only $2800 on DraftKings. This price drop may not necessarily be warranted, as his batted ball stats would indicate that he’s actually hitting the ball better than normal. In the last 15 days, his batted ball distance is up 22 feet, his exit velocity is up 4 MPH, and his hard hit percentage is up 3%, over his yearly average.

Batter Splits

Tyler Flowers – DK $2700, FD $2500

Tyler Flowers will draw an advantageous matchup tonight, against the lefty, Clayton Kershaw. Flowers is much better against left-handed pitching, with a 494 wOBA split (.248 better than when facing a righty) and a .218 ISO split (.115 better than when facing a righty). There already appears to be some reverse line movement on Atlanta, so this will be something to monitor throughout the day.

Mark Canha – DK $4400, FD $3200

Oakland batters will receive the added boost of playing in Coors Field tonight, and Mark Canha could be a beneficiary. Canha will draw an attractive matchup as he faces the lefty, Kyle Freeland. Canha is much better against left-handed pitching, with a .380 wOBA split (.086 better than when facing a righty) and a .288 ISO split (.168 better than when facing a righty).

Line Movement

Nick Pivetta – DK $8200, FD $8100

Philadelphia will be on the road in Cincinnati again tonight, in a game in which the Reds opened as a slight, -107 favorite. Since opening, this number has moved towards the Phillies, and Philadelphia now sits as a -113 favorite. In addition to the small movement on the side, the total has also seen movement. The game total opened at 9.5 runs, but has dropped a half of a run, to 9. This movement could be a positive indicator for Nick Pivetta. While Pivetta did give up an average of 3.5 earned runs in his last two starts, his opposing batted ball stats would indicate that his could see some positive regression. In the last two starts, his opposing batted ball distance was down 21 feet, his exit velocity was down 2 MPH and his hard hit percentage was up only 1%, over his yearly average. Pivetta may be under valued, and as always, he’ll provide strikeout upside, with a K/9 of 10.809.

Stolen Base Upside

Starling Marte – DK $5200, FD  $3800

Starling Marte left last night’s game after being hit in the hand, however, if he does return tonight, he’ll have an enticing matchup against the lefty, Jason Vargas. Although Vargas is a lefty, he has surrendered 4 stolen bases over 37.2 innings. This will benefit the Pirates base runners and Marte, who has stolen 25 bases this year, the most in the league.

Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!