It’s make or break time for Justise Winslow in Miami

Justise Winslow’s career with the Miami Heat has been a bit of a disappointment, to put it kindly. Here’s why there’s still time to make it right.

When Miami Heat President and NBA OG Pat Riley used the term “anchor piece” to describe Justise Winslow during the annual “state of the franchise” conference call to reporters last week, it’s fair to wonder if the turn of phrase was actually a Freudian slip.

Sure, an anchor evokes the notions of stability and remaining grounded. It is also, quite literally, something that weighs you down. It’s why front office people usually go with the friendlier “core” or “cornerstone” to describe players around which the organization plans to build. After all, an anchor isn’t something at the center of it all, and for whatever importance it offers, is hidden from sight when it’s doing its job.

In that sense, maybe “anchor” piece was the perfect term for a player whose contributions to the success of this team aren’t exactly discernible to the naked eye. With three-year averages of 7.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists with 41 percent shooting (31.4 percent from downtown), any argument for Winslow’s usefulness has to go beyond the numbers. He was supposed to be a guy who did a little of everything…just not this little.

It’s why, when discussing the topic of a possible extension for the former No. 10 overall pick, Riley was noncommittal about the prospect of hammering one out before the October 16 deadline: “We will have that extension discussion probably in late August. We don’t have to do anything until mid October so we will just see what happens.” Whether you use core, cornerstone, anchor or anything else, it doesn’t sound like he’s talking about a player the organization can’t afford to let get away.

If this was the beginning of the end of Winslow’s time as a member of the Heat, what a strange journey it has been. Few rookies picked as late in the lottery have come into the league with as much fanfare. That’s what happens when arguably the best general manager in the sport is willing to unload a treasure chest of future assets to trade up to get you.

Six teams famously passed on both Winslow and Ainge’s reported offer of six draft picks, including four first rounders, before Riley nabbed the former Blue Devil without a second thought. It’s safe to say that five of those teams almost certainly wish they took advantage of the Celtics’ generosity (the Knicks seem quite happy with Kristaps Porzingis, despite his being on the mend) even without knowing what future picks were included in the deal.

Even if one of the Boston-owned Nets picks was on the table, by all accounts, Riley never gave drafting Winslow a second thought. How ironic is it, then, that when the Heat tried to nudge themselves into the Kyrie Irving sweepstakes last summer, their offer of Goran Dragic and Winslow was beaten out by the Celtics in large part due to a Brooklyn pick that very well could have been Riley’s had he wanted it.

At this point, it’s fair to wonder if Winslow is more valuable than the player Boston ended up drafting with the first of the two 2015 first-rounders they certainly offered. Terry Rozier, taken 16th, was instrumental for a team that nearly made the Finals this year despite Irving going down, filling up the stat sheet throughout the playoffs in exactly the way many figured Winslow would coming out of Duke.

Winslow, meanwhile, appeared closest to the player the Heat thought they were getting three years ago during Miami’s five-game first round ouster at the hands of the Philadelphia 76ers. Even though he came off the bench, Winslow averaged 25 minutes in the series, put up respectable numbers and played some…”inspired” defense, shall we say, against a guy who had lit up the league for two straight months.

Most importantly for him, Winslow took and hit threes at something close to a respectable rate (36.8 percent on 3.8 attempts per game). His lack of development as a 3-point shooter has probably held him back more than anything. Yet even with that playoff performance to go with 38 percent shooting from deep on the year (albeit on just 129 attempts), opposing teams will continue to give Winslow the Tony Allen treatment on the perimeter. Nothing he’s done so far seems to point towards making teams pay for that decision.

Maybe this is just the type of player Winslow will be throughout the course of his career. The question is, what is that player worth? This isn’t an Al Horford scenario (or even a Marcus Smart one), where a player’s worth can’t be properly measured by their traditional counting stats. The Heat are pretty much the same team with Winslow on the floor as they are with him off. Unless his shooting takes a massive leap, it’s tough to imagine him being a significant part of a contender, at least not if he’s taking up a significant portion of their salary cap.

As far as what that dollar figure might look like, one has to imagine that Riley — anchor protestations aside — will be incredibly stingy in the impending contract discussions. Miami is deep in the tax, and as a result, it would be surprising if he offered something north of eight figures annually.

Yes, teams will have a lot more to spend next offseason than they did this summer, and at least a few teams figure to get desperate if they miss out on the big names. Winslow is at least a guy that a front office could bring to an owner and sell based on youth (he’ll be 23 in March) and the promise of untapped potential. Still, who’s going to make a big bet on something finally clicking with Winslow when it didn’t in a place known as the best player development factory in the NBA?

No one…unless everything finally comes together. Squint hard enough and you can see the outline of a player perfectly suited for the modern game, assuming the shot continues to progress. How many players can a coach credibly use as both their starting power forward and backup point guard? This season, Winslow was the primary ball-handler in a motley-crew Heat lineup featuring Josh Richardson, Kelly Olynyk, Wayne Ellington and Bam Adebayo. They had a blistering 19.0 net rating in 144 minutes.

Winslow is built to switch, and when surrounded by shooting, it’s easy to see a player who can work in a lot of lineups. Unsurprisingly, two of his best pairings this season were with Ellington and Olynyk, both of whom are credible deep threats.

There are some other positive signs as well. With Winslow on the court this year, the Heat stole the ball an absurdly high rate and were equally good converting those opportunities into buckets, ranking in the 93rd percentile of the league in both categories according to Cleaning the Glass. Individually, in addition to improved 3-point range, Winslow went from completely abysmal around the basket (46 percent in 2016-17) to just plain bad (55 percent last year). If he can make a similar jump next season, Miami will be thrilled.

If he’s even still on the team. If Winslow does look like the player many hoped he’d become, one has to figure the Heat will at least gauge the market on him come February. Riley talking a good game about the value of continuity on his call, but he knows better than anyone that stars win in this league. He’s dangled Winslow before, and there’s no reason he won’t do it again for the right player.

Next: Every NBA team's greatest draft pick of all time

For now though, everyone involved is just hoping that the playoffs were merely the tip of the iceberg. If they are, Winslow should have no problem getting paid…either in Miami or someplace else.