MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, July 29th All Slates

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Sunday, July 29th All Slates

Welcome to a Sunday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go MLB DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:

• The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
• Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
• In this DFS MLB Bargain Bin Quick Hits version, I’ll suggest players that are typically value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). Naturally, check final pricing before making your lineup decisions, as I am not listing salaries in this edition.
• This is not a position-by-position breakdown, but rather, I’m just identifying games where I think there’s value players in potentially favorable fantasy spots.
• The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Sunday’s slates!

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Sunday, July 29th All Slates Bargain Pitcher

Marco Gonzales, SEA at LAA

While there’s certainly a quartet of other appealing options that I’ll mention below, Gonzales is the top value option on Sunday’s slate. The young southpaw has been very impressive and consistent on his way to 11 wins, and although he sports much better numbers at Safeco Field, he’s already stymied this Angels team twice in his last three starts, including once at Angel Stadium.

Moreover, the majority of his road troubles have come over two starts and are at least partly forgivable, as they came at the hands of the Yankees and Red Sox.

The Angels have scuffled against left-handers throughout the season, and it’s been especially futile for them versus southpaws at home over the last month. Los Angeles checks into Sunday sporting an MLB-low .206 wOBA, 32 wRC+ and .160 average versus that handedness during that stretch, along with an AL-low .086 ISO.

Despite their impressive array of power hitters, the Angels have a -15.7 wRAA against lefties over that span as well, and an even more alarming -21.8 wRAA figure at home versus lefties for the season.

Gonzales has certainly had a hand in some of those numbers, as he held the Angels scoreless over seven innings in his aforementioned road start against them, and he’s yielded just one earned run and generated a 13:2 K:BB across 13 innings over his last two starts versus Los Angeles overall.

The 24-year-old has a streak of four quality starts at present (and 11 overall on the season), which includes a complete-game gem against the Royals that kicked off that stretch. Park factor will also be in his favor Sunday, as Angel Stadium is ranked in the bottom of half of baseball in terms of run factor (0.990).

For those wanting to pivot in another direction, Sunday’s slate luckily offers us another quartet of arms that should also be affordably priced across the industry and that find themselves in favorable spots:

ALSO CONSIDER from MLB DFS Bargain Bin:

Junior Guerra, MIL at SF

Jeremy Hellickson, WAS at MIA

Clay Buchholz, ARI at SDP

Sean Newcomb, ATL vs. LAD

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Sunday, July 29th All Slates Quick Hits

• As has already been the case during this series, the scoreboard operator at Camden Yards could be earning his keep Sunday, considering that Yonny Chirinos and Dylan Bundy are slated to take the hill for the Rays and Orioles, respectively. On the Baltimore side, worth noting that Chirinos has allowed a 25.6 percent line-drive rate and whopping 51.2 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. That puts all of the red-hot value righty Orioles bats in play, of which there’s no shortage — Tim Beckham, Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop, Mark Trumbo, Trey Mancini, Joey Rickard, Danny Valencia and Caleb Joseph are all options, especially considering the Rays bullpen is very overworked after a 26-run outburst by the Orioles over the last two days.

• Meanwhile, Tampa may be able to take out some of its frustrations on Bundy, who’s allowed a .375 wOBA to left-handed hitters, including a .405 figure at home. Unsurprisingly, Mallex Smith (.444 average over 11 plate appearances) and Joey Wendle (.333 average over six plate appearances) have both enjoyed success against him and should be considered, as should Jake Bauers, Kevin Kiermaier, Ji-Man Choi and young backstop Michael Perez.

• Nathan Eovaldi will take the hill for his Red Sox debut against the Twins, and that could spell some opportunity for value Minnesota bats. The hard-throwing right-hander has been impressive at times this season while coming back from missing 2017, but he’s allowed left-handed bats a .322 wOBA and 33.3 percent hard contact. Predictably, lefty value bats Joe Mauer (.308 average over 16 plate appearances) and Max Kepler (.500 average, including two homers, over seven plate appearances) have both enjoyed success in the past against him, and Fenway is not friendly to pitchers who struggle with that side of the plate. Robbie Grossman, Jake Cave and Logan Morrison could be other bargain options to consider if in the lineup.

• On the Red Sox side, although Twins starter Jose Berrios isn’t really a pitcher to target, worth noting he’s had some trouble against Mitch Moreland (.500 average in six plate appearances), and that he’s allowed a .361 wOBA to left-handed hitters on the road (112-batter sample). Therefore, Rafael Devers, the switch-hitting Sandy Leon, Jackie Bradley and Brock Holt are all worthy of tournament flyers if in the lineup.

• Burch Smith is on the hill for the Royals on Sunday, so expect to see a cavalcade of Yankees stacks in tournaments across the industry, and with good reason. Neither side of the plate has been kind to the right-hander this season (.367 wOBA versus left-handed hitters, .342 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters), so any value bats on the Yankees would be in play. That would include almost anyone not named Gleyber Torres or Giancarlo Stanton, including Neil Walker, Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorious (where affordable), Aaron Hicks (where affordable) and Austin Romine. Additionally, since Smith isn’t expected to hang in long (has reached sixth inning only once, in most recent start), keep in mind the Royals bullpen has pitched to a 6.03 ERA and allowed a .367 wOBA (including seven homers) across 37.1 road innings in the last month.

• The Royals have been inept against left-handed pitching in general, but worth noting that the debuting J.A. Happ has had trouble in the past with the same-handed Alex Gordon (.357 average over 18 plate appearances).

• The Indians Corey Kluber has certainly not been himself lately, allowing a combined 13 runs (nine earned) on 17 hits over his last two starts, and surrendering six earned runs over 1.2 innings to the Cardinals five starts ago on June 26. He’s still not someone you normally target in DFS, but a couple of left-handed value bats that hit righties well — Leonys Martin (.479 CXwOBA) and the switch-hitting Niko Goodrum (.450 CXwOBA) wouldn’t be out of the question in large-field tournaments.

• Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann doesn’t exactly have a warm reception awaiting him Sunday, as several Indians have successful histories against him. Not many are going to come cheap, but Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis and Melky Cabrera all deserve consideration.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Sunday, July 29th All Slates Quick Hits (cont.)

• The Phillies’ Zach Eflin has considerable trouble versus left-handed hitters on the road (.352 wOBA allowed), so the switch-hitting Tucker Barnhart and Billy Hamilton can be deployed in larger-field tournaments, as can Mason Williams.

• On the other side, the Reds’ Luis Castillo has given up eight homers at home and has allowed a .386 wOBA to left-handed hitters overall, so Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera (where affordable) and Nick Williams deserve your attention for tournaments.

• The Marlins’ Jose Urena has seen lefty bats tag him for a .331 wOBA and 45.1 percent hard contact rate at Marlins Park, making Adam Eaton (.430 CXwOBA against righties), Matt Adams (.476 CXwOBA against righties) and Daniel Murphy (.367 CXwOBA against righties) viable options in terms of value left-handed bats. Naturally, Juan Soto also qualifies if priced affordably.

• The Mets’ Zack Wheeler has been up and down this season, but lefty hitters have tagged him for a .333 wOBA and 38.9 percent hard contact rate. That places Colin Moran and Gregory Polanco under consideration, as well as the just-called-up Austin Meadows. Adam Frazier would also be worthy of consideration if in the lineup.

• The Pirates’ Joe Musgrove has also had his share of struggles against lefty hitters (.351 wOBA allowed), meaning that the hot-hitting Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo would especially be in play where affordable.

• Consider cheap White Sox righty bats against Blue Jays starter Ryan Borucki, who’s allowed a .339 wOBA to that handedness. Avisail Garcia, Jose Abreu and Matt Davidson especially hit left-handers hard.

• In terms of Astros value bats against Rangers southpaw Mike Minor, Yuli Gurriel (.600 average, including two homers, over 10 plate appearances) especially stands out. Meanwhile, on the Texas side, Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre and Shin-soo Choo have all given Lance McCullers, Jr. plenty of trouble in the past (combined 16-for-38 with two home runs and 11 RBI).

• As far as the Rockies-A’s tilt is concerned, I’m of the firm belief this one will be the explosive game of the series that everyone has been waiting on. I don’t trust either Frankie Montas or German Marquez under these conditions, so all affordable bats from either side are in play in what could turn out to be a real Sunday slugfest.

• Mariners lefty bats Kyle Seager, Dee Gordon and Denard Span all shape up as particularly appealing against the Angels’ Felix Pena, who’s allowed a .349 wOBA and 41.9 percent hard contact to left-handed hitters.

• The Padres Joey Lucchesi has been solid overall, but left-handed hitters have surprisingly gotten to him for a .369 wOBA at home. If there’s any affordable lefty bat in the Arizona lineup Sunday (David Peralta, Daniel Descalso), it’s worth a shot in tournaments, as is a bargain righty like Steven Souza that hits lefties well and has some homer upside.

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