A race that isn’t always the most exciting one on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule got an extra injection of intrigue before race day even rolled around.
Though the common perception of Pocono Raceway is that it doesn’t always lend itself to the most exciting racing — and fans and media alike have wondered why the NASCAR Cup Series continues to make two stops there a year — there’s no doubt that it’s a unique challenge for drivers and their teams alike. The Tricky Triangle is a track that causes a lot of griping because it’s demanding on men and machines, and that’s when things are going well. For some of the top teams in the series, the Gander Outdoors 400 weekend already failed to fit that description well before Sunday morning.
To say that qualifying created some issues is a mild understatement. A total of 13 teams failed post-qualifying inspection, creating a field that isn’t quite upside-down, but definitely had fast cars in both the front and back with slower rides sandwiched in the middle. Drivers like Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch, both among the penalized parties, are used to coming from the back to contend, but not necessarily at a place where the leaders can drive away like at Pocono.
Put another way, there might not be enough laps for them to catch the likes of the Joe Gibbs Racing trio of Daniel Suarez, Denny Hamlin and Erik Jones, who start the afternoon 1-2-3, or Martin Truex Jr., who starts eighth. Then again, there isn’t much the Big 3 haven’t been able to do in 2018, so it would be silly to count them out even under these unusual circumstances.
Forecast
Pennsylvania has been hit by some massive storm systems over the past week or two, but Weather Channel expects nothing but sunshine and temperatures in the mid-70s for Sunday’s race. If consistency from lap 1 to the checkered flag is a crew chief’s best friend, all of them should have a buddy around to help them check one potential worry off the list.
Three things to watch
- Does Truex have a leg up on the other members of the Big 3? The defending Cup Series champion trails Kyle Busch by one win and Harvick by two, but he’ll be starting way ahead of them. Considering he won the June race at this track, that might give him an insurmountable edge.
- Could Suarez or someone else surprise? Pocono Raceway isn’t the first track that comes to mind when considering a place for potential upsets or first-time winners. Still, Ryan Blaney managed to outrun the field last year en route to his first, and thus far only, Cup Series victory. Suarez is starting up front, and Chase Elliott is close to the front too, so this could set up as a better than average chance for someone other than the usual suspects to end up in Victory Lane.
- What kind of strategy plays will we see? Any Pocono race could turn into a fuel mileage affair, depending on when the caution flags fall. In addition, the XFINITY Series race on Saturday saw various teams short-pit the end of the stages, so that could be something that happens on Sunday too, though the prospect of the bonus playoff point for winning a stage makes that slightly less likely.
Predictions
The buzz in the garage is that the Harvick’s No. 4 Ford may very well still be the fastest car, and the race is long enough and should be green enough for him to work his way forward. Kyle Busch could very well do the same thing, which should make the first few laps after every green flag fascinating. Still, it’s hard to ignore the fact that the 78 is also really fast and will be tough even for the best of the best to catch and pass, so we’re going for a Pocono sweep by Martin Truex Jr.
Until they win some non-plate races, any Chevrolet driver is kind of a dark horse pick to win by default, and when the wheelman in question is 0-for-career at the Cup Series level, even more so. That said, it just feels like a race to back Chase Elliott as the dark horse pick to (finally) win, because he has shown speed this week and other factors are aligning in his favor. That would set off a riotous celebration in the shadows of the Pennsylvania mountains if it actually happened.