DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Monday, July 30

DFS MLB: HOUSTON, TX - JUNE 01: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros pitches in the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Minute Maid Park on June 1, 2018 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
DFS MLB: HOUSTON, TX - JUNE 01: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros pitches in the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Minute Maid Park on June 1, 2018 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /
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DFS MLB
DFS MLB: NEW YORK, NY – JULY 09: Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies pitches in the first inning against the New York Mets during Game Two of a doubleheader at Citi Field on July 9, 2018 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /

Welcome into the Monday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have nine games in front of us tonight so let’s get into it.

We continued the DFS MLB streak of one lineup that I played doing fine while the other one crashed and burned. It’s always hard to tell which one is going to do what but that’s why I usually play two. It was nice to see the one that did better be carried by the Indians we played because of the xwOBA data that we’ve recently started to use. Stats are always fun but it’s great when they work like they’re supposed to. Let’s dig into today’s DFS MLB slate.

DFS MLB – Phillies at Red Sox

Phillies Probable Starter – Aaron Nola, RHP 

2.42 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 26.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .207 average, .259 wOBA, 24.4 hard hit rate, 32.9 fly ball rate and 23.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .191 average, .231 wOBA, 27.6 hard hit rate, 29.7 fly ball rate and 26.4 hard hit rate

This one of the matchups that I want to see as a baseball fan but I’m not sure I’ll be too involved from a fantasy perspective. Nola has been an excellent pitcher and is right in the running for the N.L. Cy Young. He’s given up more than three earned runs twice through 22 starts, compared to 11 outings of one or zero earned runs. He’s priced at a point that I would take a shot at him despite the tough matchup and there’s only three hitters form the Red Sox that I would consider in a GPP. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez can take any pitcher deep on any given day. Nola’s highest two pitches by percentage is the four seam and the curve, accounting for 70 percent. Betts and Martinez have a .554 and .513 xwOBA against those two pitches, respectively. Since Nola is slightly worse, Andrew Benintendi could be the lefty you want to chase. His wOBA against righties is up over .400 and he carries some stolen base upside normally. The negative to that is Jorge Alfaro could be catching and is one of the best in baseball at preventing stolen bases.

Red Sox Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Andrew Benintendi

Red Sox Probable Starter – David Price, LHP 

4.17 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 24.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .227 average, .326 wOBA, 22.7 K rate, 35.4 fly ball rate and 28.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .245 average, .317 wOBA, 24.3 K rate, 42.1 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate

I’m not sure there is much of a middle ground here for this side of the game. Either Price is going to have a really good game since the Phillies are about the worst team in baseball against lefty pitching on the road. They rank either 29th or dead last in average, ISO, OPS, slugging, wOBA and wRC+ on the season when they face a southpaw away from their home park. I almost never use Price but you can make the argument as a tournament play tonight. If you’re not a Price fan, I would point you towards Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana or the aforementioned Jorge Alfaro.

Hoskins has just been white hot and even though his ISO is down at .129 against lefty pitching, he’s too good for that number to continue. The pitch data is very positive for Santana and Alfaro. Price throws the sinker and cutter a ton to righties and Santana sits at a .515 xwOBA. The slugger for the Phillies also has the highest ISO among regulars at .221. Alfaro has a very small sample size but is at .470. He also strikes out over 35 percent of the time so he’s deep GPP only. I would likely only use Hoskins or Santana in tournaments as well.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana, Jorge Alfaro

Home Run Pick – Carlos Santana

DFS MLB
DFS MLB: ATLANTA, GA – JUNE 22: Right fielder Nick Markakis #22 of the Atlanta Braves is congratulated by centerfielder Ender Inciarte #11 after Markakis’s first inning solo home run during the game against the San Francisco Giants at SunTrust Park on June 22, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images) /

DFS MLB – Marlins at Braves

Marlins Probable Starter – Wei-Yin Chen, LHP 

5.65 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 17.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .227 average, .252 wOBA, 29.4 K rate, 28.3 fly ball rate and 39.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .283 average, .367 wOBA, 14.8 K rate, 44.0 fly ball rate and 33.0 hard hit rate

It’s been a hot minute since I went after a full four man Braves stack but there’s a good chance that I have one tonight. The numbers don’t look good for Chen on the surface but his home/road splits are really where things get bad for him. This is what things look like so far in 2018 –

Home – 2.18 ERA, .205 average, .259 wOBA

Away – 10.47 ERA, .347 average, .441 wOBA

He’s getting obliterated on the road and it’s by either side of the plate. Seeing as how this game is in Atlanta, I’m all in. Now we just need to figure out where to focus our stack on. Freddie Freeman is under $4,000. I repeat, Freddie Freeman is under $4,000 and he carries a career .379 xwOBA against Chen. The home run upside might not be there but I still expect Freeman to hit double digits. Chen is throwing his fastball a lot and that means whichever catcher is in the lineup, we should want. Both Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki own an xwOBA over .500 against that pitch. I want Ronald Acuna, but some of his metrics against lefties aren’t the most inspiring ever. His xwOBA sits down at .228 and he caps it off with a .131 ISO and a weak .276 wOBA on the season. Instead, I might opt for Nick Markakis and Johan Camargo. It’s not that Ozzie Albies isn’t good, it’s just Camargo continues to have a higher ISO and wOBA and sit about $1,000 cheaper. A four man stack of Freeman, Markakis, Camargo and the catcher might be very against the grain since most will use Acuna and Albies.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Freddie Freeman, Kurt Suzuki/Tyler Flowers, Nick Markakis, Johan Camargo

Secondary Options – Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna

Braves Probable Starter – Julio Teheran, RHP 

4.42 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 21.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .228 average, .345 wOBA, 17.9 K rate, 41.7 fly ball rate and 41.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .192 average, .292 wOBA, 25.9 K rate, 39.9 fly ball rate and 38.3 hard hit rate

If the past results can be trusted, this could be a juicy game stacking option tonight. Three marlins hitters have an xwOBA over .400 against Teheran over their careers and one of them isn’t even J.T. Realmuto, how’s smashing righty pitching to a .419 wOBA and .246 ISO this season. The three that rate well otherwise are Justin Bour, Brian Anderson and Derek Dietrich. Bour isn’t having the best season but he can leave the park at any time with a .228 ISO and he’s sporting a .404 xwOBA agains the pitch mix from Teheran. The Atlanta starter literally just got waxed by this Miami offense for seven earned runs over 4.1 innings six days ago. I would not be surprised if the results were poor again and many of the Miami offensive pieces are dirt cheap. Even if you don’t use this game stack, they are great lineup fillers to squeeze in who you do want to play.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Justin Bour, J.T. Realmuto, Derek Dietrich

Secondary Options – Brian Anderson, Martin Prado

Home Run Pick – Nick Markakis

DFS MLB
DFS MLB: MINNEAPOLIS, MN – APRIL 11: Logan Morrison #99 of the Minnesota Twins hits an RBI single against the Houston Astros during the fourth inning of the game on April 11, 2018 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /

DFS MLB – Indians at Twins

Indians Probable Starter – Shane Bieber, RHP 

4.80 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 22.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .359 average, .444 wOBA, 23.0 K rate, 40.6 fly ball rate and 53.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .258 average, .273 wOBA, 22.1 K rate, 26.4 fly ball rate and 41.7 hard hit rate

Good luck Shane Bieber, you might need it today. He’s been terrible against lefties so far in his big league career and the Twins can put potentially six hitters that would hit lefty against Bieber. The young starter throws his fastball almost 60 percent fo the time and three of them have an xwOBA over .400 against that pitch. Joe Mauer, Logan Morrison and Jorge Polanco all rate extremely well against that pitch and that doesn’t even include hitters like Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario and Jake Cave. Morrion, Rosario and Cave are the best bets from a power standpoint since they have ISO’s over .200 on the season. Mauer might be one of the safer cash plays on the board tonight after looking at these metrics and the only hitter that I’m slightly hesitant on is Rosario. He’s the most expensive and has the worst xwOBA at .315. If Cave is in the lineup, he might be one of my favorite salary savers. He’s only $2,200 and is in a prime spot.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jake Cave, Joe Mauer, Logan Morrison, Jorge Polanco

Secondary Options – Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler

Twins Probable Starter – Ervin Santana, RHP 

*5 IP* 5.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 21.7 strikeout rate

We only have five innings to go off of this season as Santana is making his way back from a finger injury. Fortunately, he’s face the hitters on this Cleveland squad an awful lot over his career. He’s been worse against lefty hitters as a rule of thumb and that shows up with the top two hitters by career numbers. Both Jose Ramirez and Yonder Alonso have hit for at least a .375 average against Santana, and we all know how great of a hitter Ramirez is. Heck, even when he’s not collecting hits he can get you fantasy points.

One hitter that isn’t lefty that should be considered is Edwin Encarnacion, who carries an xwOBA of .585 against Santana over the course of 42 plate appearances. Facing the Indians is a tough assignment on a good day. It’s even tougher when you’re likely not 100 percent in game shape yet as Santana probably isn’t. If you think Cleveland puts the wood to him(a distinct possibility), I would start with Ramirez and Alonso then build from there. E5 and Francisco Lindor are appealing if you go the expensive route with Michael Brantley and Jason Kipnis providing a little salary relief.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Yonder Alonso, Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Options – Michael Brantley, Jason Kipnis

Home Run Pick – Logan Morrison and Jake Cave

DFS MLB
DFS MLB: ST. LOUIS, MO – JUNE 13: Marcell Ozuna #23 of the St. Louis Cardinals hits a two-run home run against the San Diego Padres in the sixth inning at Busch Stadium on June 13, 2018 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /

DFS MLB – Rockies at Cardinals

Rockies Probable Starter – Tyler Anderson, LHP 

3.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 22.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .260 average, .340 wOBA, 23.4 K rate, 39.4 fly ball rate and 28.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .217 average, .290 wOBA, 22.5 K rate, 38.9 fly ball rate and 30.6 hard hit rate

I probably won’t go too heavy on Cardinals given some of the other offenses we’ve already taken about but there are some hitters of interest on this side of the game. Since Anderson has weird reverse splits, Matt Carpenter is on the radar. He checks all the boxes with a .413 wOBA, .348 ISO and a .469 xwOBA against the pitch mix for Anderson. The price is still high after his recent “hotter than the surface of the sun” streak but he could be worth it and for the first time in a while wouldn’t be chalk. If Jedd Gyorko is back in the lineup, he’s arguably the best hitter on the Cards against lefties with 1.014 OPS and a .427 wOBA. He would come with a touch of risk since he hasn’t been in the lineup for awhile with a viral illness. From there, Yairo Munoz and Harrison Bader would be nice punt options, having a wOBA of at least .346. The last hitter we should touch on doesn’t look incredible by the numbers but could be in for a nice rest of the season.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter, Jedd Gyorko(if active)

Secondary Options – Harrison Bader, Yairo Munoz, Marcell Ozuna

Cardinals Probable Starter – Carlos Martinez, RHP 

3.39 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 20.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .228 average, .307 wOBA, 17.3 K rate, 36.7 fly ball rate and 37.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .237 average, .301 wOBA, 26.3 K rate, 23.5 fly ball rate and 38.3 hard hit rate

Martinez has been wildly inconsistent this year and will be returning from a short stint on the disabled list. He draws an exploitable matchup since the Rockies are a different offense away from Coors. They reside near the basement against righties on the road in average, OPS, wOBA and wRC+. The good news is they climb the ranks in ISO. The bad news is they’re still in the bottom 10 in baseball and they are ninth in strikeout rate. I don’t know if I’ll be bold enough to use Martinez, but the matchup suggests he’s a great GPP option. The splits are about as even as they can be for Martinez and I’m not really on this side of the game. If you are, I would use Carlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez. There’s a little more hope for a fly ball that leaves and less strikeout potential with the lefty hitters.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado

Home Run Pick – Matt Carpenter

DFS MLB
DFS MLB: PHOENIX, AZ – APRIL 18: A.J. Pollock #11 of the Arizona Diamondbacks bats against the San Francisco Giants during the MLB game at Chase Field on April 18, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

DFS MLB – Rangers at Diamondbacks

Rangers Probable Starter – Martin Perez, LHP 

7.08 ERA, 2.02 WHIP and 12.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .294 average, .356 wOBA, 13.9 K rate, 25.0 fly ball rate and 31.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .376 average, .448 wOBA, 12.5 K rate, 32.2 fly ball rate and 47.9 hard hit rate

There’s really no shortage of offenses to get a piece of tonight and Arizona can be added to the list. Perez is not a good pitcher and the D-Backs are built to beat up lefty pitching. You can’t talk about a lefty facing Arizona without starting with Paul Goldschmidt. He’s wrecking lefty pitching this year with a 1.020 OPS, .297 ISO and a .427 wOBA. The price is high but it sure seems worth it tonight. A.J. Pollock and Ketel Marte would be great options to build a two man stack against Perez. Pollock does have the higher power upside but Marte is cheaper and quietly smokes lefty pitching himself. That would be my choice for a three man stack and you could also include Nick Ahmed, Steven Souza or Daniel Descalso. Ahmed makes a lot of sense at the shortstop position with an ISO over .240 and a wOBA of .342. He doesn’t look quite as good against lefty sinkers with a .272 xwOBA against the pitch this year. It’s hard to see Perez going to Arizona and being successful tonight, regardless of his solid start last time out against Oakland.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Ketel Marte

Secondary Options – Nick Ahmed, Steven Souza, Daniel Descalso

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Robbie Ray, LHP 

4.90 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 30.8 hard hit rate

Vs LHH – .143 average, .232 wOBA, 31.8 K rate, 26.6 fly ball rate and 30.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .280 average, .377 wOBA, 30.5 K rate, 45.1 fly ball rate and 47.4 hard hit rate

You really never know what you’re going to get with Ray but this spot might be pretty kind to him. Lefties have trouble with him so if he can control the Texas righties, we could get a ceiling game. The main righties in the lineup are Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre, Jurickson Profar and Robinson Chirinos. Beltre’s power appears to have vanished with a .071 ISO so he’s not the most intimidating righty anymore. Profar leads the team in wOBA while Chirinos leads in ISO(sorry, I’m not counting Joey Gallo against a tough lefty) so there’s risk but it’s relatively low. I’ll almost never pitch Ray in cash but I’m interested in tournaments. If you want to attack Ray since he’s prone to blow up starts, the three man stack of Profar, Chirinos and Andrus would be the way to go.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Three man stack

Home Run Pick – Paul Goldschmidt and Ketel Marte

DFS MLB
DFS MLB: TORONTO, ON – MAY 17: Matt Chapman #26 of the Oakland Athletics is congratulated by Khris Davis #2 after hitting a two-run home run in the sixth inning during MLB game action against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on May 17, 2018 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) /

DFS MLB – Blue Jays at A’s

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Marco Estrada, RHP 

4.72 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 18.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .245 average, .322 wOBA, 19.0 K rate, 49.2 fly ball rate and 25.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .279 average, .361 wOBA, 18.2 K rate, 58.1 fly ball rate and 32.9 hard hit rate

Oh look, another offense with some stack appeal tonight. Estrada has been on the disabled list for a good while now but he’s certainly someone you can target against. I wish the game wasn’t in Oakland since it’s such a big park but I’m definitely still interested. Khris Davis is certainly in play despite being so expensive. He leads the team in ISO against righties by over 50 points and has always hit righty pitching better than lefty. Estrada is a four seam and changeup pitcher almost exclusively and Davis has a .466 xwOBA against those two pitches. He’s in a prime spot but if you want to save some money, Stephen Piscotty is interesting. His xwOBA is .465 and in a minuscule three a-bat sample size against Estrada, he has a .903 xwOBA against Estrada. He also has a .221 ISO against righty pitching and is $1,400 cheaper than Davis.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Khris Davis, Stephen Piscotty

Secondary Options – Jed Lowrie, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson

A’s Probable Starter – Edwin Jackson, RHP 

3.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 19.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .205 average, .295 wOBA, 19.5 K rate, 42.6 fly ball rate and 31.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .226 average, .282 wOBA, 18.2 K rate, 30.0 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard hit rate

The shine might be starting to come off of Edwin Jackson as he got beat up in his last start. This Blue Jays offense might be able to extend his misery and I’d be looking to Justin Smoak, Randall Grichuk and Curtis Granderson as possible options. It’s also getting hard to ignore Lourdes Gurriel, who has at least two hits in 11 straight games. With Jackson not striking out hitters at a high rate, I’m probably siding with the lefties with power to take advantage of the 42.6 fly ball rate. Granderson, Smoak and Kendrys Morlaes will all hit lefty against Jackson and have an ISO of at least .195. I don’t think Jackson is nearly as good as his metrics would try to indicate so far, but the Blue Jays are also not a primary target for me. Their big boppers are better served as a GPP option tonight.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, Randall Grichuk

Secondary Options – Curtis Granderson, Lourdes Gurriel

Home Run Pick – Randall Grichuk

DFS MLB
DFS MLB: PHOENIX, AZ – MAY 04: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros delivers a first inning pitch against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on May 4, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. Astros won 8-0. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) /

DFS MLB – Astros at Mariners

Astros Probable Stater – Gerrit Cole, RHP 

2.54 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 35.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .172 average, .257 wOBA, 40.6 K rate, 46.8 fly ball rate and 33.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .189 average, .257 wOBA, 30.1 K rate, 40.4 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard hit rate

Cole hasn’t been quite as utterly dominant as he had been at the start of the season but he’s still likely going to be worth the price of admission tonight. There’s really not a stark weakness that we can attack Cole with and the closest thing might be that Mitch Haniger looks great via xwOBA(.427) against the main three pitch mix for Cole. Even then, he’s only hitting .227 the past 30 days and Nelson Cruz is only at .234. I just don’t see myself rostering Mariners tonight at all. Cole might not reach the 60 point monster game since the Mariners are a tough team to strikeout but I can’t Balme you for playing him.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Mitch Haniger

Mariners Probable Starter – James Paxton, LHP 

3.70 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 32.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .311 average, .366 wOBA, 35.7 K rate, 23.6 fly ball rate and 29.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .193 average, .261 wOBA, 31.3 K rate, 45.3 fly ball rate and 37.1 hard hit rate

If we knew that Paxton was healthy, I might actually consider using him against this Houston lineup that’s missing Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve. Since we don’t know for sure what his health is like, he’s sadly not on my radar tonight. I’m also not very interested in the Astros hitters except for George Springer and Alex Bregman. Springer has three home runs off of Paxton in his career and a .437 xwOBA in 30 plate appearances. Bregman has just been a fantasy and real life monster this year, especially against lefties. He’s carrying a .316 ISO, .433 wOBA and a .456 xwOBA against the pitch mix for Paxton. Since it’s very conceivable that Paxton could have to knock off a little rust, these two are great GPP plays. It also helps the cause that the Astros have only scored two or three runs in their last four games.

Astros Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Alex Bregman, George Springer

Home Run Pick – George Springer

DFS MLB
DFS MLB: LOS ANGELES, CA – JULY 03: Cody Bellinger #35 of the Los Angeles Dodgers congratulates Max Muncy #13 after his solo home run during the first inning of a game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Dodger Stadium on July 3, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /

DFS MLB – Brewers at Dodgers

Brewers Probable Starter – Freddy Peralta, RHP 

3.74 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 33.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .221 average, .342 wOBA, 30.4 K rate, 44.9 fly ball rate and 38.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .070 average, .151 wOBA, 36.3 K rate, 58.5 fly ball rate and 38.1 hard hit rate

Peralta has shown flashes so far in his young career, but this is a very dangerous spot. Sure, the Dodgers almost got no-hit yesterday but that just means they were saving them all for Peralta. The young starter for the Brew Crew lives on his fastball so far, throwing it over 75 percent to both sides of the plate. I don’t care how good that pitch is, major leaguers are eventually going to square it up over the long run. Max Muncy and Yasmani Grandal both have an xwOBA over .440 against righty fastballs and will bat on the right side of the split. Muncy’s ISO is still well over .300 and his price is under $4,000 again. Joc Pederson isn’t very far behind in xwOBA at .433 and he leads the Dodgers team in actual wOBA against righties. It’s not hard to envision Peralta getting blasted here and that’s where the stats all point us. I will say, if it appears the Dodgers are going to be chalk, Peralta is worth a flier in GPP. We’ve seen him score 60+ points once already.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Yasmani Grandal

Secondary Options – Cody Bellinger, Alex Verdugo

Dodgers Probable Starter – Kenta Maeda, RHP 

3.27 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 29.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .246 average, .305 wOBA, 24.9 K rate, 34.4 fly ball rate and 36.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .203 average, .271 wOBA, 34.0 K rate, 37.0 fly ball rate and 36.9 hard hit rate

I’m really not going to mess around with the righties in this spot but the power lefties of Milwaukee could give Maeda some issues tonight. Christian Yelich has been running insanely hot recently, scoring double digits in eight of his last 11 games. I always just have a hard time paying $4,500 for someone who doesn’t exactly profile as a power hitter against a solid pitcher. Having Travis Shaw at second base adds some depth to that position and he’s a solid play tonight. He and Eric Thames are basically the same in wOBA and Shaw strikes out almost half the time. He also only trials Thames by .023 in ISO so I’d take my chances with Shaw and his .407 xwOBA against the pitch mix for Maeda. We also have Mike Moustakas as a Brewer now and he smacks around righty pitching with a .249 ISO. That’s a pretty nice four man stack if you’re so inclined to get after a late night hammer, albeit with quite a bit of risk.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Three or four man stack(I’d leave Thames out if you just go three)

Home Run Pick – Max Muncy

DFS MLB
DFS MLB: SAN FRANCISCO, CA – JULY 10: Derek Holland #45 of the San Francisco Giants pitches against the Chicago Cubs in the first inning at AT&T Park on July 10, 2018 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /

DFS MLB – Giants at Padres

Giants Probable Starter – Derek Holland, LHP 

3.92 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 24.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .184 average, .221 wOBA, 12.6 K rate, 28.8 fly ball rate and 21.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .253 average, .341 wOBA, 27.1 K rate, 43.0 fly ball rate and 44.9 hard hit rate

I’m not saying I’m totally comfortable with it, but Holland actually isn’t the worst start on the slate tonight. The only category that the Padres offense ranks better than the bottom 10 of the league is ISO. San Francisco suppresses offense and home runs and here’s the kicker – the big two righty power threats(Wil Myers and Christian Villanueva) strikeout over 32 percent of the time. Holland is whiffing righties at a very respectable clip. If there’s a park to get away with that amount of fly balls and hard hits, it’s AT&T Park. The only hitter I might use from the Padres would be Hunter Renfroe. He’s cheap enough that the strikeout risk is mitigated but he would only be in my lineup if he’s the last man in.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Hunter Renfroe

Padres Probable Starter – Eric Lauer, LHP 

5.29 ERA, 1.70 WHIP and 19.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .329 average, .400 wOBA, 11.9 K rate, 36.1 fly ball rate and 36.4 strikeout rate

Vs RHH – .300 average, .364 wOBA, 21.2 K rate, 34.9 fly ball rate and 41.8 strikeout rate

We should hopefully get the Giants lineup before the slate locks because if Nick Hundley is in, he’s lock for me at minimum price. He destroys lefty pitching with a .313 ISO and a .396 wOBA and Lauer just hasn’t been a good pitcher this year. I don’t mind Andrew McCutchen but Brandon Crawford has a higher ISO, wOBA and fewer strikeouts. He’s also cheaper than McCutchen and it’s not like Lauer is getting anything by lefty hitters. The park keeps me from going too crazy with hitters here, but there are plenty of cheaper options that can help you fit Gerrit Cole and the expensive bats.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brandon Crawford, Nick Hundley

Secondary Options – Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey, Chase d’Arnaud

Home Run Pick – Brandon Crawford

DFS MLB
DFS MLB: DENVER, CO – JUNE 8: Paul Goldschmidt #44 of the Arizona Diamondbacks celebrates a third inning 2-run homerun in the dugout during a game against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on June 8, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /

DFS MLB – FanDuel Sample Lineup

P – Gerrit Cole

C/1B – Nick Hundley

2B – Jedd Gyorko

3B – Johan Camargo 

SS – Jorge Polanco 

OF – Jake Cave, A.J. Pollock, Nick Markakis

Utility – Paul Goldschmidt 

Tonight is really going to be a challenge. There are so many solid offenses in really good spots and there’s not a ton of pitching options I feel totally comfortable with. Even Cole has some slight twinges of concern but he wins by default for cash games. Hundley and Gyorko potentially not being in the lineup would require a fairly significant rebuilding but we’ll cross that bridge when we get there. I’ll take two lefty Twins and two righty Diamondbacks in the initial run as I think those are the surest bets for points. Nick Markakis is a nice difference maker because I don’t think many will play him when they maybe should.

The Core – Gerrit Cole, Paul Goldschmidt, Twins lefties

Pitching Options – 

High End – Gerrit Cole

Mid-Range – David Price, Robbie Ray, Aaron Nola

Punts – Derek Holland

Stacks to Consider – Braves/Marlins game stack, Arizona Diamondbacks, Minnesota Twins, Dodgers/Brewers game stack, Cleveland Indians

Fantasy Baseball: Diamondbacks Trade for Escobar. dark. Next

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.