How does Josh Jackson build on the end of last season?

From the All-Star Game through the end of the season, few rookies experienced a transformation more stark than Josh Jackson. In his first 57 games, the Phoenix Suns forward alternated between lost and frustrated, averaging 11.2 points and 4.1 rebounds per game and shooting just 40.6 percent from the field as the Suns slogged through a doomed season. But after the All-Star break, something changed in Jackson. Whether it was a longer leash, the shelving of Devin Booker due to injury, or something else, Jackson flourished down the stretch for the Suns, flipping a switch to average 18.7 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game in his final 20 appearances, and raised his true shooting rate from 46.8 percent to 50.1 percent.

From November to January, Jackson looked like De’Aaron Fox. From February on, he looked more like he belonged on this year’s stacked All-Rookie 1st team.

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Of course, Jackson didn’t just simply flip a switch overnight. He progressed in a more linear path throughout the season, and it wasn’t just an uptick in usage allowing his late-season scoring barrage. Jackson did show real progression, which was promising. However, that also doesn’t guarantee he’s ready to break out this season. There’s still plenty of development needed to make Jackson’s gains sustainable.

Jackson was a bit of a circus to start the season, especially on offense. It was clear he struggled to adjust to the size and speed of NBA competition, and that manifested in his finishing and playmaking struggles. He seemed very tentative to try to finish through contact early on, which resulted in a lot of garbage floaters with no prayer of going in.

This was true in transition, as well. Nikola Jokic is in no way prepared to contest the following shot, but Jackson gives up a sure trip to the line in favor of a floater that barely hits the rim.

As the season went on, Jackson got more comfortable with the speed of the game, and his finishing did start to improve, thanks to his assertiveness. He has a natural baseline of fluidity around the basket, and used this better towards the end of the season.

That’s the type of play you hope to see from a player with Jackson’s handle and athleticism moving forward. However, there’s still room for improvement in this area as Jackson heads into year two. Jackson’s on-ball capabilities appear limited by his ability to get to the rim. While he’s more assertive with the ball now, he still struggles to get the burst towards the basket to beat a defender, and that is worrisome for his long-term upside as a scorer.

Jackson seemed a little too comfortable going to his step back jumper or probing and resetting when attacking the defense, and that led to him finishing in the 27th percentile of pick-and-roll ball-handlers and 18th percentile in isolation scoring.

It’s here that we hit the major conundrum with Jackson’s offensive role moving forward. His most promising offensive skill is his playmaking, which combined with his handle makes him a very enticing secondary creator type. The Suns unlocked this late in the year, letting Jackson feed off initial actions and hit cutters against a scrambling defense.

But to make good use of this, Jackson also needs to present a legitimate scoring threat. He’s best when he’s distributing either from the elbow or attacking the basket, and he just hasn’t shown the ability to either get to the rim consistently or present a concerning pull-up threat. Teams aren’t going to send help against Jackson on a secondary action because he can usually be coerced into a tough shot with just basic defensive discipline.

His jumper is a particular hindrance — his rookie season resulted in the dreaded situation of a player who is over-reliant on a jumper that’s ineffective at best. Pull-up jump shots categorized 27.5 percent of Jackson’s shots, per NBA player tracking data, and he shot 31.6 percent on these looks — and 18.2 percent from 3. Jackson looks like he’s shooting on the surface of the moon, releasing at the height of the jump with a long, inconsistent upper body release. Predictably, this leads to a lot of variance on where the shot goes.

Without that pull-up or added strength and confidence at the rim, it’s hard to see how the Suns ever fully unlock his passing in a meaningful way. Jackson can’t eat a ton of possessions on ball, because of the self-creation possessions Booker and Deandre Ayton are likely to demand. That could relegate him to more of a secondary role in most lineups.

That might fit Jackson’s skills more appropriately. Fellow Step Back writer and Locked on Suns cohost Brendon Kleen sees his future role as this: “Ideally, his role is to defend the opposing team’s best player 1-4, protect Devin Booker on that end, and be a ball-mover/cutter/transition finisher on offense.” That certainly would play more to his strengths.

We’re somewhat burying the lede here with Jackson, because his defensive performance in year one was legitimately solid. His athleticism and anticipation are wonderful, and while he made his fair share of mistakes in team defense, he shows a lot of promise lurking off ball.

He also showed good discipline as an on-ball defender. His fluidity changing directions is promising, and he’s good at tracking an opponent that’s driving towards the basket.

Because of that defensive skill, and the value of that next to Booker and Ayton, Jackson probably shouldn’t ever be tasked with a high creation volume. He might be better served as a slasher, where he diagnoses rotations well and finishes in a more controlled fashion.

But a complimentary role on offense likely still hinges on his shooting improving, because 28.1 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s is not going to cut it anywhere.

Jackson’s true role will likely fit between these two — he likely won’t get the volume of secondary creation possessions he got at the end of last year in Igor Kokoskov’s new offense, but he will probably be involved as a playmaker to a degree to get optimal usage. How he progresses in some of these areas likely determines his fit going forward.

The most important area for Jackson’s long-term growth will obviously come in shooting. Even with the added spacing from new additions Trevor Ariza and Mikal Bridges, Jackson is probably never going to be a serious creator without the threat of a workable pull-up jumper, and his fit as an ancillary wing is compromised if he can’t shoot off the catch. But that’s an easy thing to say, and a harder thing to accomplish, especially with the mechanics mess that was Jackson’s rookie year jumper. It’s safe to say meaningful year two improvement is likely off the table.

So, that means he needs to lean hard into developing his strength areas. Becoming a better moving passer would be the most helpful, because the Suns will likely be running more of a motion offense requiring secondary creators to swing the ball and generate looks while attacking mismatches, something Jackson wasn’t great at this season. Translating that increased confidence in attacking the rim is also going to be valuable, and if Jackson can take another step and become better at getting to the line, that can help him earn more possessions on ball. He absolutely has to settle for jumpers less frequently, and more confidence in his ability to attack off the dribble should help that.

Jackson’s primary value to the Suns moving forward will likely be on defense, but figuring out his offensive role is going to be key to him being able to maximize his offensive ability. He looked good for two months to end last season, but that likely was a little bit of fool’s gold, and he has some real development ahead of him to become a useful offensive player. Carving out a method of marrying the traditional playmaking wing and 3-and-D archetypes is probably how he does this, although he will always have the limitation of his jump shot. While that will be complicated, it is possible for him to become an effective offensive player without shooting.