Will changes at quarterback and offensive coordinator translate into the balance and consistency LSU needs to get back to double-digit wins in 2018?
The 2017 LSU Tigers had a tumultuous but somehow ultimately successful 9-4 year in Ed Orgeron’s first full season as head coach.
They came into the season with a preseason top-15 ranking and started 2-0. After two uninspired performances in losses to Mississippi State and Troy, the Tigers found themselves unranked with a 3-2 record and the season quickly slipping away
From one perspective, it’s inexcusable for a program with LSU’s talent to let a Sun Belt team even hang around past the second quarter, much less to take a loss at home. At the same time though, it takes a hell of a lot of grit and resolve to bounce back and win six of eight games down the stretch like they did. That’s every bit as impressive as the two early losses were disappointing.
Looking into 2018, the Tigers hope to have learned from both the mistakes and positives in 2017.
Offensive coordinator Matt Canada is gone after just one season. To replace him, Ed Orgeron opted for familiarity instead of splash and hired longtime LSU assistant, Steve Ensminger to take over the Tigers offense. For the first time in what seems like a decade, LSU won’t have a proven, NFL-caliber running back ready to carry the load. We’ll have to wait and see how Ensminger’s system takes shape on the field but it will likely be some variation of the spread incorporating RPO (run-pass option), focusing more on the passing game than in year’s past. While the running attack finds its legs, the Tigers can at least rely on a talented corps of wide receivers and a potential game-changer at quarterback in Ohio State transfer, Joe Burrow.
Defensively, LSU will have to replace a couple of key players from last season, most notably defensive end Arden Key and cornerback Donte Jackson. Six starters in total return on defense, led by junior linebacker Devin White and sophomore corner Greedy Williams. Both are expected to be among the best players in the country at their respective positions and they should be surrounded by enough talent across the board to match or improve on last year’s top-15 defense.
As always, LSU’s loaded SEC West schedule is one that could easily make a great team look good, a good team look mediocre, and an average team look like a bottom feeder.
LSU Schedule
- Sun, Sept 2 vs. Miami* (neutral site)
- Sat, Sept 8 vs. Southeast Louisiana
- Sat, Sept 15 at Auburn
- Sat, Sept 22 vs. Louisiana Tech
- Sat, Sept 29 vs. Ole Miss
- Sat, Oct 6 at Florida
- Sat, Oct 13 vs. Georgia
- Sat, Oct 20 vs. Mississippi State
- Sat, Nov 3 vs. Alabama
- Sat, Nov 10 at Arkansas
- Sat, Nov 17 vs. Rice
- Sat, Nov 24 at Texas A&M
Best-case Scenario: 9-3
At the risk of oversimplifying things, LSU’s success, or lack thereof, in 2018 will come down to two factors: 1. Focus and effort week over week 2. Continuity on offense
If the 2018 Tigers come out looking flat and unprepared like they did against Mississippi State and Troy last year, this team could very easily look up five games into the season and find themselves worse off than 3-2.
If the team that LSU put on the field during the middle stretch of 2017 shows up and the offense hits its stride under Ensminger and Joe Burrow, LSU will be in every game on their schedule.
Between a week one match-up with preseason top-ten Miami, Auburn on the road in week three, then Georgia and Alabama (both at home) down the stretch, LSU will likely be underdogs for four games in 2018. If they can go 1-3 or 2-2 in those games while avoiding any slip-ups on the rest of their schedule, 2018 has to be judged as a tremendous success.
Worst-case Scenario: 5-7
As capable as LSU may be of competing with anyone in the country on their best day, we’re also talking about a team that inexplicably lost two very winnable games early last year.
If the offense just can’t find any kind of rhythm or the team as a whole loses focus and the season starts flying off the rails like it did early in 2017, LSU could very easily lose games to Florida, Mississippi State and Texas A&M on top of the four games mentioned above.
Most likely Outcome: 8-4
Vegas has the line on LSU wins in 2018 set at 7 games. Between the defense and the significant upgrade Joe Burrow will be at quarterback, I think they’ll be good enough to exceed that total by a game.
Ed Orgeron may not be on the hot seat heading into 2018 but he’s far from the poster child for job security at this point in his tenure. The guys starting GoFundMe campaigns to pay for his contract buyout should probably focus their fundraising efforts elsewhere for now. If LSU finishes with less than eight or nine wins (including bowl season) in 2018, Athletic Director Joe Alleva will likely be feeling the pressure to make a change into 2019.