The Case Against Trading Harper
The Nationals have sunk hundreds of millions of dollars into this core of players, so why not just ride it out through the end of the year? Stranger things have happened than a team that has already won four division titles finding a way to pull it together and go on an epic two-month run back to the postseason.
Washington’s competition in the NL East, the Phillies and Braves, is very young and has never dealt with the pressures of a pennant race. Philadelphia is just 5-5 since the start of the second half, while the Braves are 3-5. Neither team figures to be able to significantly upgrade their roster at the deadline. The Phillies already missed out on Manny Machado, and the Braves have not been linked to any big names.
The Nationals do have their 20-7 record in the month of May to pin their hopes to, as well as a schedule that will give them every opportunity to make a run. They still have seven games remaining against the Braves and nine left against the Phillies. Win the majority of those, while continuing to beat up on the Miami Marlins and New York Mets, and a run can come together pretty quickly.
If there is one real reason for the Nationals to be hopeful, it is the hot bats that Ryan Zimmerman and Daniel Murphy have swung the past week. Zimmerman has hit .357/.357/.571 with three doubles, while Murphy has raked to the tune of a .316/.409/.421 line with two doubles and four RBI. The Nationals need these veterans to continue hitting if they are going to have any chance of making up ground.
There’s also the fact that Harper is having one of the worst years of his career to consider. Contenders may not be willing to hand over their top prospect to acquire him while he continues to be mired in a slump. Harper has hit just .204/.333/.416 over his past 69 games with 93 strikeouts, all the while becoming a bigger malcontent.
If the Nationals do hold onto Harper until the end of the year, they will not be giving up on a season that is still salvageable. They will maintain at least a puncher’s chance of re-signing him, especially if he decides to take a one-year deal in an effort to hit the market on the heels of a stronger season. The worst-case scenario will see them collect a compensatory pick that can be used on a player who can be in the big leagues only a year or two later than the prospects that would come over in a potential Harper blockbuster.