DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Tuesday, July 31

Welcome into the Tuesday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have the monster 14 gamer on tap for tonight so let’s get down to business.

I’m not going to bore you for very long with past results. We cashed for the second straight day in DFS MLB, thanks to the hitters doing some solid work, no thanks to the Diamondbacks main hitters that I played. Gerit Cole did his thing, even though he couldn’t come away with the win. The money is in the account so lets’ move onto the next one!

DFS MLB – Orioles at Yankees

Orioles Probable Starter – Yefry Ramirez, RHP 

3.49 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 25.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .245 average, .348 wOBA, 27.1 K rate, 48.4 fly ball rate and 30.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .196 average, .264 wOBA, 24.1 K rate, 45.2 fly ball rate and 28.6 hard hit rate

It’s always a little dangerous to take too many assumptions form a 28 inning sample size but so far Ramirez has been a solid major leaguer. The strikeouts are appealing but it’s tough to really back him in this spot. The fly balls are terrifying but the pitch data suggests the lefties for the Yankees may not have the best day. Ramirez throws the four seamer and changeup to lefties over 90 percent of the time and Aaron Hicks is the only hitter with an xwOBA over .345 against those pitches. Brett Gardner is at .341, Didi Gregorius is at .301 and Greg Bird sits at the bottom at .299. I would imagine the Yankee lefties will be very popular tonight. Bird and Gregorius do have ISO’s over .235 against righties, so it makes plenty of sense. I’m a little more leery than most because I think there’s legitimate downside. It’s a side of the game that I’ll bookmark but be cautious with.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks

Secondary Options – Brett Gardner, Greg Bird

Yankees Probable Starter – Masahiro Tanaka, RHP 

4.09 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 24.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .214 average, .280 wOBA, 22.4 K rate, 27.2 fly ball rate and 31.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .222 average, .315 wOBA, 26.6 K rate, 40.8 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard hit rate

The Orioles have been on fire lately and shifting to New York certainly won’t hurt their efforts. This isn’t the best spot for Tanaka from a power standpoint when you consider his 2.17 HR/9 to righties this season. The good news fro Tanaka is he carries major upside in the strikeout department and Baltimore strikes out at the sixth highest rate against righty pitching. This side of the game is a total GPP spot for me. Tanaka could give you any outcome and so could the hitters. If you side with the Orioles, Jonathan Schoop and Adam Jones have the best track record against Tanaka. Jones may not be on the team come tonight with the trade deadline but Schoop has been smoking the ball as off late. Trey Mancini and Joey Rickard also have high xwOBA’s against Tanaka in shorter sample sizes and have ISO’s of at least .160.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None for cash, Jonathan Schoop for GPP

Secondary Options – Trey Mancini, Joey Rickard, Adam Jones

Home Run Pick – 

DFS MLB – Cubs at Pirates

Cubs Probable Starter – Jon Lester, LHP 

3.09 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 19.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .248 average, .347 wOBA, 19.8 K rate, 39.2 fly ball rate and 32.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .223 average, .294 wOBA, 18.9 K rate, 36.9 fly ball rate and 34.8 hard hit rate

That sound you hear is myself and Brian chomping at the bit to target Lester tonight. Now, I’m not going to be using many Buccos in cash. As much as I fully believe that Lester has it coming to him, this is a GPP play. I’ll reiterate that me saying Lester is bad isn’t based off my Pirates fandom. Lester is carrying a 4.59 FIP, 4.64 xFIP and a 4.71 SIERA. These are all metrics that I trust to tell me he hasn’t been good this year, despite the strong ERA. Having said that, it’s everyone’s favorite time on the Breakdown because we’re going to Walk With Elias! My main man when the Bucs draw a lefty is always underpriced and under owned and he rates well by all me metrics tonight. He’s got a .442 wOBA, .246 ISO and a .501 xwOBA against the four seam and cutter, which is 70 percent of the pitches Lester throws to righties. Oh, he also has a .578 xwOBA in seven career at-bats. Hopefully he plays because Francisco Cervelli doesn’t rate nearly as well. I would also consider David Freese as he looks solid through all the boxes as well. I’m not sure how heavy I’ll be on Pirates past that point.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Elias Diaz, David Freese, Starling Marte

Secondary Options – Sean Rodriguez, Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison

Pirates Probable Starter – Jameson Taillon, RHP 

3.73 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 23.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .260 average, .321 wOBA,18.6 K rate, 29.7 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .228 average, .265 wOBA, 27.8 K rate, 31.3 fly ball rate and 30.9 hard hit rate

This is an interesting spot on the slate. Taillon is likely a hair too expensive for me because we don’t see the upside very often. Paying $8,900 for 35 or so points isn’t the most appealing idea. In addition, it’s hard to ignore his track record against three Cubs hitters. Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez have a batting average of at least .600 and Rizzo is carrying a .439 xwOBA through 15 at bats. Perhaps unsurprisingly, those two also have an xwOBA of at least .399 against the four seam and sinker, which makes up about 60 percent of the pitches Taillon throws. Jason Heyward does have a .412 xwOBA against Taillon but doesn’t rate as well in many other metrics. I’d be more likely to stack Cubs than chase any one hitter with the exception of Rizzo

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez

Secondary Options – Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber

Home Run Pick – Anthony Rizzo

DFS MLB – Mets at Nationals

Mets Probable Starter – Steven Matz, LHP 

3.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 21.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .222 average, .303 wOBA, 18.1 K rate, 20.3 fly ball rate and 11.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .236 average, .327 wOBA, 22.2 K rate, 39.9 fly ball rate and 37.1 hard hit rate

At only $7,500 tonight, Matz is a pretty intriguing play…if he’s still a Met by that point. He’s been mentioned in trade rumors but as far as the Nationals go, Matz has a pretty solid track record in 126 total plate appearances. If Anthony Rendon is back from paternity leave, I’ll be interested in him. He smashes lefties with a .416 wOBA, .304 ISO and a .562 xwOBA against the main mix for Matz. Anytime he faces a lefty at under $4,000, it’s worth a look. This would normally be a spot where I would advocate for playing Juan Soto. He’s better against lefties despite being a lefty himself but Matz has done an excellent job at limiting fly balls and hard hits against lefties. The other hitter to look at for stolen base upside is Trea Turner. He’s swiped seven off of lefty pitchers and the Mets are typically poor at holding runners. This team could be a complete steer clear depending how the deadline shakes out. They have been engaged by multiple teams to trade Bryce Harper.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Anthony Rendon

Secondary Options – Trea Turner

Nationals Probable Starter – Tanner Roark, RHP 

4.55 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 20.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .261 average, .332 wOBA, 24.3 K rate, 34.3 fly ball rate and 27.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .247 average, .313 wOBA, 17.1 K rate, 35.5 fly ball rate and 30.9 hard hit rate

Roark has been worse against lefties this year so that puts Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto squarely in play. It’s a little frightening when you consider that Roark strikes out lefties at a respectable clip and Nimmo strikes out over 27 percent of the time. He also doesn’t pop off the page in the pitch data but in six career at-bats against Roark, Nimmo has a .514 xwOBA with one home run. Despite having a rough year, Roark does have some talent and is coming off a 67 point performance against the Brewers. This isn’t a spot that I’ll be overly excited about tonight.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brandon Nimmo

Secondary Options – Michael Conforto, Jose Bautista

Home Run Pick – Anthony Rendon

DFS MLB – Reds at Tigers

Reds Probable Starter – Homer Bailey, RHP 

6.29 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and 14.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .275 average, .369 wOBA, 14.4 K rate, 37.2 fly ball rate and 33.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .314 average, .384 wOBA, 14.6 K rate, 35.0 fly ball rate and 51.2 hard hit rate

One of the biggest trolls of the season so far came in Bailey’s last start when he dropped 42 point on the Cardinals offense when they were obvious chalk. I’m not completely sold he can do it again tonight. He throws a lot of junk but still throws the four seam around 50 percent of the time so that’s where we want to look at. The highest tow players by that metric are Niko Goodrum at .427 and Nicholas Castellanos at .409. I’m certainly not playing Bailey but I don’t think I’m going to venture too far outside the top four in the lineup here tonight. Leonys Martin and Jeimer Candelario are fine options as well because Bailey simply isn’t a good pitcher at all anymore. Just be aware that the Tigers are significantly worse as a team against righty pitching. This spot may be riskier than it appears and only Goodrum has an ISO over .200 against righties this year.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nicholas Castellanos, Niko Goodrum

Secondary Options – Jeimer Candelario, Leonys Martin

Tigers Probable Starter – Matt Boyd, LHP 

4.53 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 21.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .243 average, .303 wOBA, 25.0 K rate, 42.1 fly ball rate and 42.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .219 average, .292 wOBA, 20.8 K rate, 44.9 fly ball rate and 36.1 hard hit rate

Matt Boyd has shown some upside in certain spots and this could be one of them. If he can get around the beast against lefties know as Eugenio Suarez, he’s got a good chance of success. Now, getting around Suarez and his .424 xwOBA against Boyd’s pitch mix and his .337 ISO and .500 wOBA against lefties overall is a tall task. I don’t think a lot of folks have realized just how good Suarez has been against lefty pitching so far. You could go with whichever catcher plays because Curt Casali and Tucker Barnhart both have wOBA’s over .395. Casali carries a lot more power in a smaller sample. Past that Scooter Gennett and his .344 wOBA could be in play. He’s up there in price and I would only utilize him in a Reds stack. I might take a shot at Boyd in tournaments as a cheap option.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eugenio Suarez

Secondary Options – Curt Casali/Tucker Barnhart, Scooter Gennett

Home Run Pick – Niko Goodrum

DFS MLB – Angels at Rays

Angels Probable Starter – Tyler Skaggs, LHP 

2.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 25.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .206 average, .235 wOBA, 29.4 K rate, 37.8 fly ball rate and 34.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .252 average, .303 wOBA, 24.3 K rate, 31.3 fly ball rate and 39.2 hard hit rate

The Rays against lefties don’t look very pretty. Of the top five hitters in wOBA, three of them are either left, hurt or no longer on the team. The only ones in consideration are probably C.J. Cron and Daniel Robertson. Cron hit two bombs on Sunday and finds his price up at $3,600 and Robertson isn’t a sure thing to play. He hurt his ankle on Sunday and is currently day-to-day. Jake Bauers has held his own against lefty pitching but Skaggs has owned that side of the plate this year. The Rays generally have three or four lefties in their lineup and Skaggs might be the best pitching options we’ve touched on so far. Cron is the only hitter on my radar as a GPP play.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Optons – None

Secondary Options – C.J. Cron

Rays Probable Starter – Bullpen Day

We don’t know who the main pitcher is quite yet and given that the Rays are going to be active today in trades, they may not know yet either. What we do know is Ian Kinsler is no longer an Angel because it literally just happened as I was writing up the Angels. We’ll have to wait and see about who’s pitching before we decide the secondary players. I will also take my chances with Mike Trout over any bullpen arm the Rays can throw out there today. If the arm is a righty, Kole Calhoun and Shohei Ohtani are in play with their ISO’s over .200. Andrelton Simmons is always in play as a cash option due to his contact ability.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options –Mike Trout

Secondary Options -TBD

Home Run Pick – Mike Trout

DFS MLB – Phillies at Red Sox

Phillies Probable Starter – Jake Arieta, RHP 

3.45 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 17.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .273 average, .336 wOBA, 16.6 K rate, 31.2 fly ball rate and 29.4 fly ball rate

Vs RHH – .226 average, .277 wOBA, 17.7 K rate, 23.9 fly ball rate and 28.1 fly ball rate

There’s no chance that I’m trusting Arrieta in Fenway against this lineup. He throws the sinker a lot to either side of the plate and the Red Sox have five regulars with an xwOBA over .470 against righty sinkers. The first hitter that pops off the page is Mitch Moreland because he has a .501 xwOBA against Arrieta in 11 plate appearances. The other boxes gets checked with a .514 xwOBA against sinkers, a .234 ISO and a .369 wOBA overall against righties. Being only $3,200 seals the deal for me and he looks like a great option tonight. The other lefty that looks incredible is Andrew Benintendi. He’s carrying a massive .604 xwOBA against the sinker and has a .406 wOBA alongside with stolen base upside. I think both are cash game options and you can’t go too far wrong with Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez if you go full stack against Arrieta.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi

Secondary Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Red Sox Probable Starter – Drew Pomeranz, LHP 

6.91 ERA, 1.82 WHIP and 20.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .310 average, .347 wOBA, 12.5 K rate, 52.0 fly ball rate and 32.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .308 average, .411 wOBA, 22.1 K rate, 36.8 fly ball rate and 39.3 hard hit rate

If you happened to read yesterday, this is going to be sort of a rinse and repeat spot. Philly is awful against lefties on the road. I’m talking New York Mets level bad, if not worse. It’s a weird thing but it remains true. So we have to decide which factor is going to suck more tonight – Philly’s ineptitude or Drew Pomeranz being completely awful so far this season. Carlos Santana and Rhys Hoskins would be my go to options on this side of the game. Santana has a .221 ISO against lefties and is a solid bet to leave the yard tonight. Hoskins has oddly not rated well against lefties so far but he’s been hot lately and Pomeranz has just been so poor this year. Cesar Hernandez would round out a three-man stack nicely if you go that route. It’s hard to blame you seeing how Pomeranz has pitched.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Carlos Santana, Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Options – Cesar Hernadez

Home Run Pick – Mitch Moreland and Andrew Benintendi

DFS MLB – Marlins at Braves

Marlins Probable Starter – Dan Straily, RHP 

4.07 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 19.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .235 average, .341 wOBA, 20.3 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 42.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .218 average, .298 wOBA, 18.1 K rate, 34.8 fly ball rate and 44.9 hard hit rate

If the xwOBA proves to be true, Straily is going to get rocked tonight. No fewer than six regular players have an xwOBA of at least .412(Nick Markakis) and the leader of the pack is Ronald Acuna at .517. Ozzie Albies has two home runs in 10 at-bats and could be ready to bounce back after the goose egg last night. We definitely want to look towards the lefties here so that means Freddie Freeman who is still under $4,000. I would side with Albies over Camargo tonight because Albies has been better than Camargo. However, it’s not like Camargo is a bad play either. He’ll be hitting lefty and would go virtually un-owned. I’d be ready to go right back to Nick Markakis tonight after he let me down since Straily has been worse against the lefties. Atlanta put up five runs last night and has every chance to do it again tonight.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies

Secondary Options – Ronald Acuna, Johan Camargo, Nick Markakis

Braves Probable Starter – Kolby Allard, LHP 

*Major League Debut*

According to FanGraphs, Allard just missed out being a top 100 prospect as he sits 105th overall. He’s got a pretty even split between ground balls and fly balls so that doesn’t stand out. There seems to be some concern about the fastball being a little average, sitting in the high 80’s to low 90’s. That’s not ideal for a major league starter though plenty of pitchers can survive with it. His strikeout percentage has dropped at every level of the minors he’s been at so far but this is the Miami offense. I’m not crazy about using too many of them tonight. Brian Anderson is the only hitter with a wOBA over .350 but that’s not anything to write home about. I suppose you can make the argument that Allard could be worth a dart throw in a deep tournament since he should be minimum priced. On a slate this big, I’ll likely land on players I feel more comfortable.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Brian Anderson, Derek Dietrich, J.T. Realmuto

Home Run Pick – Ozzie Albies

DFS MLB – Indians at Twins

Indians Probable Starter – Trevor Bauer, RHP 

2.32 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 31.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .204 average, .262 wOBA, 30.9 K rate, 33.9 fly ball rate and 34.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .216 average, .264 wOBA, 32.2 K rate, 34.0 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard hit rate

Bauer is under $12,000 agains and that means I’m right back on board with him tonight. The Twins are clearly in “sell” mode and could be with out Brian Dozier by the time first pitch rolls around. They had one of the best matchups against Shane Bieber last night and mostly flopped. Bauer should be able to handle them and it always makes you feel better when a pitcher carries this kind of strikeout rate and has only given up a total of six home runs on the season. Bauer has been one of the best pitchers in baseball and has struck out at least eight hitters in 10 of his last 12 starts. Roll him out in all formats.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Twins Probable Starter – Kyle Gibson, RHP 

3.42 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 23.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .235 average, .291 wOBA, 20.3 K rate, 35.8 fly ball rate and 39.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .208 average, .287 wOBA, 26.3 K rate, 27.4 fly ball rate and 36.9 hard hit rate

At this point, I think I might play Jose Ramirez against just about any pitcher in baseball. He could be the American League MVP and tied for the lead in home runs last night by hitting two. Gibson throws his four seam/sinker combo around 57 percent of the time and some of the Indians lefties see that mix really well. Ramirez, Michael Brantley, Francisco Lindor and Yonder Alonso all have xwOBA’s over .417 against those pitches. Gibson has pitched twice against Cleveland so far this year and has only allowed three earned runs over the course of 12.2 innings. He’s done plenty to earn our respect but he’s yet another player who has seen the trade mill spit out his name. A BvP play could be Edwin Encarnacion. In 22 at-bats, he’s hitting .318 with four home runs and a .478 xwOBA.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Options – Yonder Alonso, Michael Brantley

Home Run Pick – Edwin Encarnacion

DFS MLB – Royals at White Sox

Royals Probable Starter – Danny Duffy, LHP 

4.70 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 20.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .258 average, .272 wOBA, 21.5 K rate, 32.4 fly ball rate and 37.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .254 average, .344 wOBA, 20.0 K rate, 45.9 fly ball rate and 38.0 hard hit rate

This is a matchup that we’ve seen a lot over the years and Duffy usually takes the brunt of it. Over the course of 232 plate appearances, the White Sox are hitting for a .333 average with a .356 xwOBA and five home runs. I do kind of wish the homers were a bit higher but this game overall looks like a potential stacking option. Jose Abreu is up there in price but he does own two bombs off of Duffy to go with a .378 xwOBA. I might be more likely to save the $900 and play Tim Anderson. He hasn’t been as good as normal against lefties this season with a wOBA barely over .300 but the price tag is right.

Three cheaper and maybe less popular options are Matt Davidson, Avisail Garcia and Yolmer Sanchez. The first two have ISO’s of at least .220 and Davidson is way up there at .272. Going with that three-man stack and leaving off Abreu and Anderson would be gutsy and could pay off in a major way. If Chicago is getting a lot of noise through the day, I might want to play Duffy at least once. He was pitching a lot better until he faced the Tigers. If you’re an habitual reader, you know Detroit is nasty against lefty pitching.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson

Secondary Options – Yolmer Sanchez, Matt Davidson, Avisail Garcia

White Sox Probable Starter – James Shields, RHP 

4.53 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 17.8 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .205 average, .293 wOBA, 18.3 K rate, 41.2 fly ball rate and 30.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .266 average, .333 wOBA, 17.2 K rate, 43.6 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard hit rate

I really am having a hard time picking a lane here. On the one hand, Shields is like Duffy and has struggled against this team to some extent. However, he’s only given up three home runs(two to Lucas Duda, one to Alex Gordon) and has been better against lefties this year. The highest remaining wOBA in the Royals lineup with over 25 at-bats is Adalberto Mondesi….at .345. There is a reason the Royals are near the bottom of the league in wins. I don’t think I can click “Submit” with Shields as my pitcher, but maybe as a SP2 on sites where you need one he could be useful. This side of the game seems like an easy spot to pretend doesn’t exist. I suppose you could take a cheap flyer with Lucas Duda but it wouldn’t be the way I head tonight.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Lucas Duda, Adalberto Mondesi

Home Run Pick – Matt Davidson

DFS MLB – Rockies at Cardinals

Rockies Probable Starter – Jon Gray, RHP 

5.16 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 28.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .260 average, .333 wOBA, 30.1 K rate, 32.2 fly ball rate and 36.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .271 average, .309 wOBA, 26.2 K rate, 21.4 fly ball rate and 30.4 hard hit rate

If you wanted to see the polar opposite of Jon Lester, let’s take a look at some of Gray’s numbers. The ERA is ghastly but the WHIP is fine and the strikeout percentage is fourth highest on the slate. His advanced metrics look like he might be one of the most unlucky pitchers in baseball with a 3.23 SIERRA, 2.87 xFIP and a 3.00 FIP. I’m going to play him against this Cardinals unit even though Gray has been worse on the road. The strikeout potential is just too high and he’s a little tougher against lefties, so Matt Carpenter isn’t quite as scary. He’s also gone pretty cold after his recent hot stretch. Marcell Ozuna continued to crush the ball after making a change to his byline with another home run last night. Yadier Molina might be the best righty play with a .395 xwOBA against the main mix for Gray and a .208 ISO against righties.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Options – Marcell Ozuna, Yadier Molina

Cardinals Probable Starter – Jack Flaherty, RHP 

3.28 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 29.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .196 average, .271 wOBA, 24.0 K rate, 32.4 fly ball rate and 31.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .220 average, .312 wOBA, 35.4 K rate, 40.4 fly ball rate and 36.1 hard hit rate

I will not have a single Rockie on my teams tonight and if you’re not feeling comfortable with Gray, Flaherty is an excellent option. We saw what a quality pitcher can do against this lineup when they’re not in Coors and Flaherty has been very tough to each side of the plate. Colorado has the eighth highest strikeout rate in the league on the road against righties and Nolan Areando is just a little above average against righty pitching. If you’re not as concerned with him as normal, who else is scaring you in this matchup? Charlie Blackmon hasn’t had the year everyone thought he would and is at a .381 wOBA. I think this game could be pitching heavy and that’s what I’m most interested in.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon

Home Run Pick – Yadier Molina

DFS MLB – Rangers at Diamondbacks

Rangers Probable Starter – Bartolo Colon, RHP 

5.02 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 13.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .271 average, .327 wOBA, 12.5 K rate, 33.9 fly ball rate and 40.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .272 average, .354 wOBA, 14.7 K rate, 34.4 fly ball rate and 43.1 hard hit rate

Hear me out on this one – I’m actually a little happy that Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock did nothing last night. The lineup hit 138.4 without them and they were highly owned because they drew a garbage lefty. Now they get Colon who everyone will run to the lefty hitters from the Diamondbacks which might be a small mistake. Colon has given up 23 homers this season and 18 of them have come off the barrel of righty hitters. Pollock has an ISO of .238 and Goldschmidt has a .216 mark and I think they make it up to you if you go back to them tonight. This might seem crazy and maybe it bites me, but I’m not going to force lefties into my lineup. David Peralta and Eduardo Escobar are good options but I’m hunting for homers from most of my offense. The lefties don’t give me the best chance at that.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock

Secondary Options – David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Zack Godley, RHP 

4.73 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 22.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .266 average, .341 wOBA, 21.3 K rate, 23.0 fly ball rate and 34.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .256 average, .326 wOBA, 24.5 K rate, 32.5 fly ball rate and 38.2 hard hit rate

This is a weird spot to me. By some metrics, The Rangers look like an awesome stack. Shin-soo Choo hit two home runs last night and you always feel safe when you play him. Rougned Odor has been scorching hot lately and Joey Gallo is always a threat to take a pitcher out. Godley isn’t pitching well and hasn’t all year and the Rangers offense overall is smashing the ball since the All-Star break. The catch here is Godley throws his curveball around 40 percent of the time and the Rangers look awful against righty curves this year. Gallo has a .334 xwOBA against it this year and every other player is .284 or worse. Texas strikes out at the fourth highest rate in baseball and Godley has a chance to be good, in part because he generates a 51.2 ground ball rate.  He is very far from safe and would just be a tournament play for me tonight. I lean towards the Rangers getting to Godley but the opposite outcome wouldn’t surprise me either.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Shin-soo Choo, Rougned Odor

Secondary Options – Joey Gallo, Jurickson Profar, Adrian Beltre

Home Run Pick – A.J. Pollock

DFS MLB – Blue Jays at A’s

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Sam Gaviglio, RHP 

4.65 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 21.5 fly ball rate

Vs LHH – .265 average, .328 wOBA, 15.2 K rate, 36.6 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .245 average, .327 wOBA, 26.5 K rate, 33.6 fly ball rate and 31.8 hard hit rate

Hello, Matt Olson! The slugger for the A’s sure looks like a really good play tonight from a lot of perspectives. First, the pitch data looks incredible. Gaviglio throws his sinker between 50 to 53 percent of the time to either side. In a very small sample, Olson has a .730 xwOBA against righty sinkers. Gaviglio doesn’t strike out lefties so that helps the cause for Olson as well because he could take full advantage of his  ISO. You can run Matt Chapman out there as well. He can hit for power and has been hot lately since being bumped up in the order. Nick Martini is fine if he’s leading off but I can’t say I’d expecting a lot form him. Olson and Chapman are clearly my top two plays from the A’s tonight.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Olson, Matt Chapman

Secondary Options – Nick Martini, Khris Davis

A’s Probable Starter – Trevor Cahill, RHP 

3.43 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 23.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .206 average, .271 wOBA, 25.0 K rate, 25.4 fly ball rate and 37.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .221 average, .296 wOBA, 22.4 K rate, 22.9 fly ball rate and 43.9 hard hit rate

Cahill isn’t the worst play ever tonight. I don’t know if I’d be super happy about using any Jays hitters and Cahill is a good option as a SP2 if you need that. Cahill has been solid so far and the Jays offense isn’t one that’s going to terrify me. If you fall in love with your offensive build, you can play Cahill on FanDuel but that’s fairly bold.  The thing with targeting Blue Jays hitters is it’s tough to find the upside. Cahill does a great job of limiting fly balls and he’s at home. His ERA is 0.80 at home this year and he’s giving up a .165 average with a .219 wOBA. I would just stick to Justin Smoak and Randall Grichuk if you want Toronto bats. Both those hitters look good against righty sinkers and they have ISO’s over .250. If they make contact, there’s a chance to get the ball out of the park.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Justin Smoak, Randall Grichuk

Home Run Pick – Matt Olson

DFS MLB – Astros at Mariners

Astros Probable Starter – Charlie Morton, RHP 

2.89 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 30.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .199 average, .302 wOBA, 38.4 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 40.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .207 average, .269 wOBA, 23.4 K rate, 23.8 fly ball rate and 25.6 hard hit rate

I don’t think Morton is a bad play at all, but I can’t find myself using him tonight. I would be much more inclined to find the extra $2,200 to get up to Bauer. The Mariners aren’t a team that strikes out all that much and that has to be a concern if you plan on using Morton. In fairness to “Ground Chuck”, he’s dominated the Mariners hitters pretty thoroughly in 112 at-bats. The Marines have a collective .256 xwOBA. I would have liked Kyle Seager as a GPP option but he’s on paternity leave. Denard Span and Dee Gordon are two of the only lefties that would be in the lineup and it’s hard to see those two hitting a homer off Morton tonight. If you think Bauer is going to be chalky, Morton is a fine pivot. I just firmly believe Bauer will score more raw points.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Dee Gordon, Denard Span

Mariners Probable Starter – Mike Leake, RHP 

4.15 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 14.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .272 average, .307 wOBA, 10.9 K rate, 29.0 fly ball rate and 38.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .271 average, .339 wOBA, 17.4 K rate, 30.2 fly ball rate and 36.2 hard hit rate

I won’t be playing Mike Leake tonight but he might actually have a decent game. The Astros are pretty far from full health right now and are relying on Alex Bregman and George Springer to do a lot of heavy lifting. Leake isn’t a very good pitcher but the ground ball rate can get to any team and the Astros haven’t been scoring runs lately. Evan Gattis and Springer are the best by the pitch data, which is a steady diet of sinkers and cutters. Josh Reddick might be the best bet out of the Houston lineup. He’s been hitting third with the absence of Jose Altuve and he’s still dirt cheap. Leake is giving up less power to lefties but they hit for a significantly higher average. I likely won’t pay up for Springer or Bregman at a premium price tonight. There’s enough ability for Leake to ruin my night that I’ll pass on this side fo the game.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Evan Gattis, George Springer, Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick

Home Run Pick – Josh Reddick

DFS MLB – Brewers at Dodgers

Brewers Probable Starter – Wade Miley, LHP 

2.01 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 12.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .235 average, .318 wOBA, 18.2 K rate, 13.3 fly ball rate and 53.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .219 average, .273 wOBA, 12.3 K rate, 25.0 fly ball rate and 38.9 hard hit rate

At some point, the dam is going to break on Miley and he’s going to get crushed. Maybe that’s tonight and I’m interested in a Dodgers stack. I’m not sure where to go in a one-off situation so the whole lineup is more appealing than just a single player. Max Muncy would be included in that scenario due to his prowess against lefty pitching this season. He owns a .290 ISO against them to go along with his .429 wOBA. Since Miley has yet to really get beat up, I don’t think you get fancy here. Either you grab the top three hitters in Muncy, Matt Kemp and Manny Machado or you let the Dodgers be. Kike Hernandez would be a nice option to do a wrap around stack. You can use his .192 ISO as a differentiating play tonight if he’s batting low in the order.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Max Muncy, Manny Machado, Matt Kemp

Secondary options -Kike Hernandez

Dodgers Probable Starter – Walker Buehler, RHP 

3.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 25.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .227 average, .291 wOBA, 27.4 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 30.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .228 average, .267 wOBA, 23.5 K rate, 29.5 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard hit rate

It wouldn’t shock me if Buehler went six innings with a bunch of strike outs and only gave up a couple runs but I’m not willing to test my theory out. I don’t trust Buehler to go six even if he’s pitching well because the Dodgers haven’t really taken off the kids gloves with him yet. Milwaukee can be a feast or famine team since they strike out in the top 10 against righties but also carry a top 12 mark in OPS and wOBA. You can try a mini stack of Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw and Eric Thames since Buehler gives up a higher wOBA to lefties. Shaw and Thames have an ISO over .285 each and Mosutakas isn’t hurting in the power department. Still, it seems like long odds and this side of the game is a GPP spot at best. I’m likely to let it alone all the way around.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Power lefties

Home Run Pick – Max Muncy

DFS MLB – FanDuel Sample Lineup

P – Trevor Bauer  

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C/1B – Elias Diaz

2B – Cesar Hernandez

3B – David Freese

SS – Tim Anderson 

OF – Avisail Garcia, Josh Reddick, Jackie Bradley, Jr. 

Utility – Anthony Rizzo 

Whew, 14 games is a lot. For now, I’m going to take Bauer and lock him in. That’s very likely where I stay for cash purposes tonight. I do have two Bucs in the lineup but they’re so cheap that it’s hard to ignore. We take two White Sox to try to attack Danny Duffy a little bit and then we added some one offs from some solid offense in good spots.

The Core – Elias Diaz, Trevor Bauer

Pitching Options 

High End – Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs

Mid-Range – Charlie Morton, Masahiro Tanaka, Jon Gray or Jack Flaherty

Punts – Steven Matz, Trevor Cahill, Matt Boyd

Stacks to Consider – Los Angeles Dodgers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Boston Red Sox, Atlanta Braves, Diamondbacks/Rangers game stack, Chicago White Sox

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.